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By Dave Consolazio, December 25, 2009 10:00 am

Merry Christmas everyone! Hope you all have a wonderful day, even those of you that don’t celebrate the holiday :).

As for tonight’s game…

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Two of the league’s hottest teams (San Diego with 9 straight wins, Tennessee 7-1 in last 8) square off in a game with plenty of playoff implications on the line. The most glaring thing about this match-up on paper for me is Tennessee’s weak passing defense against San Diego’s dominant passing attack. Looking closer, not a whole lot to like about Tennessee here. San Diego has a tough rushing defense, which could slow down Chris Johnson. Tennessee is 0-5 in their 5 meetings with San Diego since they became the Tennessee Titans; you have to go back to 1992 to find the last time this team (the Houston Oilers, anyway) beat the Chargers. And not only are the Chargers 9-0 in their last 9, but they are also 17-0 in their last 17 games in December. Needless to say, I’d be with the other 80%+ bettors that are on the Bolts tonight if I weren’t so damn philosophical. But then I wouldn’t be me, would I? Something is up with this spread, and I don’t think Vegas bookmakers are the gift-giving type, even on Christmas.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee

Good luck, and once again, Merry Christmas!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Who else is ready for this decade to end already?

Now that Christmas is in the books (I had a wonderful one with my family, hope you all had a great holiday as well! Thanks for all of the well wishes again!) and I have delivered and received my cash and prizes, I am ready to move on to what will hopefully be a better decade for all of us!

Oh, right, I’m not going anywhere until I get the Dime done. At the last second, as usual. But at least the frantic-ness of the holidays gives me an excuse, right? (Anyone?)

My quest to .500 took another step forward last week, though the Sunday and Monday night losses were brutal, turning what could have been an excellent week into instead just a good week. But I’m not one to complain about good weeks. Two more 9-win weeks and I’ll finish the season back over .500!

Now begins the madness that is the last two weeks of the season. Good teams resting players, bad teams playing for nothing. Best way to attack it is with a nice shiny coin that has good ridges for flipping.

Or, if you are nuts in the head (like, say, a guy with an NFL newsletter), you could actually try capping the games.

God help us all.

Happy New Year everyone! Have an excellent and safe New Year’s Eve!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 6 – 1 (.600)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 2 – 1 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 108 – 113 – 3 (.489)
Without the spread: 151 – 73 – 0 (.674)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 14 – 9 – 1 (.609)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Dallas (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
Cleveland (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo (+7.0) TIE
Miami (+5.0) @ Tennessee (-5.0)
Houston (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0)
Cincinnati (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Oakland (+14.0) @ Denver (-14.0)
San Francisco (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
Chicago (+11.0) @ Baltimore (-11.0)

THE BAD

Arizona (-14.0) @ Detroit (+14.0)
Atlanta (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
Green Bay (+2.0) @ Pittsburgh (-2.0)
Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Seattle (-6.5)
Minnesota (-9.0) @ Carolina (+9.0)
N.Y. Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

May the dogs bark loudly this week!

FRIDAY

San Diego (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Oakland (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
Just like the Washington game a few weeks ago, you have a team playing consistently well of late (in the Browns) going against a Raiders team coming off of a big win and getting everyone believing in them again. Jamarcus Russell/Charlie Frye? Have fun taking that side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Seattle (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Two teams I can’t figure out, the numbers suggest a blowout here, and I don’t see it much differently, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Kansas City (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
This Cincinnati team just isn’t really a blowout type of team this year. KC has a red-hot back in Jamaal Charles, too; something tells me this is one of those games that the Bengals are never really in danger of losing, but aren’t ever way out in front, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+10.0) @ New England (-10.0)
Quite simply, New England’s offense has not been good enough of late to warrant giving up 10 points to a solid team still playing for their playoff lives. I’d be somewhat surprised if the Jags manage to pull the upset, but I do expect them to keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Tampa Bay (+14.0) @ New Orleans (-14.0)
Tampa Bay looked great last week, but more importantly, the Saints don’t have much to play for here. True, they haven’t mathematically wrapped up home field throughout yet; but I still doubt they will be bringing 110% effort to the table after losing their undefeated season and knowing they could beat this team with a less than perfect effort. I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Carolina (+8.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-8.0)
Doesn’t get a whole lot more philosophical-y than this one. 1. Bad team with nothing to lose playing against a team that needs a win badly (all the pressure on the team that needs it). 2. Team (NYG) coming off of three straight games against division rivals. 3. Team coming off of MNF win against a division rival. All of these things point to a huge let down spot for the Giants, so I’m all over Carolina here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

Buffalo (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Even with Buffalo’s QB issues, I don’t see them as a near-double digit underdog here. Both teams should struggle to score, and those 9 points should come in handy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Baltimore has had no luck whatsoever when they’ve headed into Pittsburgh in recent years, but this isn’t the same Pittsburgh team. I’m not overwhelmingly impressed with Baltimore, either, but one amazing late win over Green Bay doesn’t erase how mediocre this team has played of late, and I’m happy to take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Houston (+1.5) @ Miami (-1.5)
This one is a true coinflip between two 7-7 teams both still alive in the hunt for a playoff spot. Both teams should be at their best, and since I don’t see much edge on either side, I’ll have to take the home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Detroit (+14.0) @ San Francisco (-14.0)
When San Fran wins, they tend to win big. This should be one of those occassions; the defense should have no trouble with Detroit, and the offense should have their share of fun as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

St. Louis (+14.5) @ Arizona (-14.5)
Two teams I’m hopeless with predicting in the same game, my favorite! Arizona really doesn’t have much to play for here (playoff spot locked up, first-round bye unlikely) so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a less-than-100% effort. Also, this is the NFL, right? Do we really give 14.5 to a division rival in week 16?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Denver (+7.0) @ Philadelphia (-7.0)
Part of me sees Denver bouncing back from last week’s awful game with a respectable effort this week. The other part of me sees a very hot and very strong team in the Eagles, at home, trying to lock up the division. I’ll go with that side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

N.Y. Jets (+4.0) @ Indianapolis (-4.0)
If we were sure that the Colts were going to be giving it their all, we’d still have to give the Jets a good look due to their strong defense. Since we aren’t sure that Manning and some other key players won’t be resting, we might as well take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Dallas (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Another very nice philosophy pick. Once again a team with nothing to lose playing against a team trying to secure a playoff spot. Also a division rival underdog. Also Dallas coming off of a huge win over than-undefeated New Orleans and Washington coming off of a humiliating loss (at home no less) to the Giants. Yes, Washington just made a fool of me and my philosophy picks Monday night, but this one is far far too good to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

MONDAY

Minnesota (-7.0) @ Chicago (+7.0)
Another division-rival-dog-with-nothing-to-lose philosophy pick here. Minnesota still has a lot to play for, too; not only are they still in the running for home field throughout, but they could also lose their first round bye if they continue to slip up. As useless as the Bears have been this season, I have to take the points on them at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

Bowl Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvQUB3-C5zc

BYU +2.5 (WIN)
Oregon -3.5
Michigan State +8.0
Texas +4

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, December 22, 2009 7:49 am

My third year of uploading college football picks on to youtube. At the time I made the first four videos I was still employed at SBR, so I had used the SBR title screen with my usual title theme song. After being laid off (Week 5 on), I decided not to have a lead in, since davesdime.com wasn’t active, and I obviously didn’t want to continue advertising for SBR.

Despite the personal drama, 2009 proved to be my best year yet when it came to picking some winners.

Final 2009 Season Record Against the Spread: 42-32-1

Bowl Week: 1-3-0

Week 13: 4-0-0

Week 12: 4-1-1

Week 11: 3-3-0

Week 10: 2-2-1

Week 9: 3-4-0

Week 8: 3-1-1

Week 7: 2-1-1

Week 6: 4-2-0

Week 5: 3-3-1

Week 4: 2-4-1

Week 3: 2-2-0

Week 2: 5-3-0

Week 1: 4-3-0

Preseason Win Totals: 1-1-1
Preseason Win Total Article: Three college win totals worth taking a look at

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By Dave Consolazio, December 18, 2009 10:00 am

I’m taking Indianapolis -3.0. While there are plenty of reasons to consider Jacksonville here (as these teams always play close and the undefeated season historically is nearly impossible to complete), I can’t take Jacksonville in this spot at only 3 points. It doesn’t qualify as a philosophy pick since it opened at +4 and lots of people jumped on the Jags. I’ll trust Peyton and the Colts to do the same thing he did last year when I was on Jacksonville in a similar spot; find a way to win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Good luck to whoever you are rooting for!

Dallas (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
The Saints have made it no secret that they want to go for the perfect season, and tonight’s game against Dallas is their toughest remaining. I don’t doubt that they’ll be fired up and that they are the better team, but I can’t leave this many points on the table. New Orleans makes a habit of letting teams stick around far too often, and Dallas still has plenty to play for, too. New Orleans should come out on top, but I’m expecting a good game down to the wire, not a blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Good luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

10-6, hooray!

Law of averages, or talent finally coming through? I’m going to run with the latter, even if the former is more likely.

I always tend to do well to close out the season; after all, this is when Philosophy Santa comes out to give lots of presents to boys and girls that believe in him! While philo-picks tanked last week (0-2), they are still my greatest weapon.

Sorry to cut the intro short; date night with the girlfriend takes priority over coming up with a few more almost-witty lines that will get skipped over by 90% of you anyway!

Hope you all have had/are having a wonderful holiday season!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 99 – 107 – 2 (.481)
Without the spread: 142 – 66 – 0 (.683)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 12 – 7 – 0 (.632)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Pittsburgh (-11.0) @ Cleveland (+11.0)
Detroit (+14.0) @ Baltimore (-14.0)
Denver (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
N.Y. Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
Carolina (+13.0) @ New England (-13.0)
Miami (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Minnesota (-6.5)
Washington (-1.0) @ Oakland (+1.0)
Philadelphia (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco (+3.5)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago (+4.0)
New Orleans (-10.0) @ Atlanta (+10.0)
Seattle (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0)
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Kansas City (+1.0)
St. Louis (+13.0) @ Tennessee (-13.0)
San Diego (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Let’s get a winning streak going!

THURSDAY

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

SATURDAY

Dallas (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
The Saints have made it no secret that they want to go for the perfect season, and tonight’s game against Dallas is their toughest remaining. I don’t doubt that they’ll be fired up and that they are the better team, but I can’t leave this many points on the table. New Orleans makes a habit of letting teams stick around far too often, and Dallas still has plenty to play for, too. New Orleans should come out on top, but I’m expecting a good game down to the wire, not a blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

SUNDAY

Arizona (-14.0) @ Detroit (+14.0)
You know how much I hate these crapshoot type games, but in this case, I have to take the Cardinals in blowout fashion. Coming off of a tough loss against the 49ers and wanting to avoid stumbling into the playoffs or leaving the division door open, I expect the Cards’ best effort this Sunday, which should be more than enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Cleveland (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
Both teams have a lot of guys playing for jobs next season, and somewhat surprisingly, Cleveland has been doing a better job at it of late. Normally I’d take the home team in a toss up like this, but the Browns have played decent enough to warrant a pick here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

New England (-7.0) @ Buffalo (+7.0)
When you get to this part of the season, I love to bet on bad teams against teams that NEED wins. When the bad team also happens to be a division rival home dog getting a touchdown’s worth of points? Looks like Philosophical Santa came early this year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo

Miami (+5.0) @ Tennessee (-5.0)
The Dolphins always seem to be the forgotten AFC team. This is a good team on both sides of the ball; not great, but good. And they find ways to win games. The same could be said about the Titans, who will probably edge out the win in this one with home field, but if they do I don’t believe it will be by much more than a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Houston (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0)
St. Louis has killed me all season long, philosophy or not, on their side or against them. But when I see one team riding high coming off of a 34-7 blowout win on the road against a team coming off of a humiliating 47-7 blowout loss, I just can’t help but take the team looking to redeem themselves, no matter how bad they may be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Atlanta (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
The Jets defense has really stepped up in the team’s three game winning streak, and with home field advatantage in this one, I expect them to stay hot against the struggling Falcons.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
It’s always hard to think about a game being played when tragedy strikes like it did in the death of Chris Henry, and my condolences go out to his friends and family. It’s difficult to know whether Cincinnati will be too heavy-hearted to play, or if they will burst out with an amazing performance to honor him. I lean slightly towards the latter, and expect Cinci to play a hard fought game and keep it close, even if they don’t come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Oakland (+14.0) @ Denver (-14.0)
Charlie Frye, huh? As bad as it sounds, I’m actually taking the Raiders with the points here. Hate to do it, but these are the games the Raiders tend to show up for; when all the pressure is on the other team. Denver is the team in desperate need of the win; the Raiders aren’t getting a prayer in most people’s minds. Besides, getting two touchdowns in the NFL against your most hated rival? Worth a shot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

San Francisco (+7.5) @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
I really like San Francisco and would normally jump all over these points; but the short week plus the potential let down after beating a division rival on MNF pus the travel plus the weather… just a lot working against the 49ers this week, and a lousy effort seems to be a very real possibility.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Chicago (+11.0) @ Baltimore (-11.0)
I can’t make any more excuses for Chicago. They don’t deserve any more respect then what they are getting, and they are hopeless offensively. Baltimore’s D at home should feast on this offense, and despite the fact that they aren’t really a “blowout team”, I expect a rout here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Green Bay (+2.0) @ Pittsburgh (-2.0)
Okay, so to be clear, Green Bay, who has won five straight games and is 4-0-1 against the spread in that stretch, is the UNDERDOG to a team that has lost five straight, including three of their last four to three of the worst teams in the NFL (KC, Oak, Cle)? Yeah, that makes a TON of sense. Bookies are just praying you’ll be on Green Bay in this one; Philosophy Santa brought lots of presents this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay (+6.5) @ Seattle (-6.5)
Tampa Bay has forgotten how to score, and Seattle, for all of their problems, still has a decent enough team that plays a lot better at home, too. Not much to like about the Bucs here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Minnesota (-9.0) @ Carolina (+9.0)
Much like Tampa Bay (though not QUITE as bad), Carolina doesn’t know how to score. And not many teams do on Minnesota, anyway. Being a heavy road favorite is dangerous this time of year, but the Vikings should take care of business this week as they often do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

MONDAY

N.Y. Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
“When you get to this part of the season, I love to bet on bad teams against teams that NEED wins. When the bad team also happens to be a division rival home dog getting a touchdown’s worth of points? Looks like Philosophical Santa came early this year.” De ja vu, right? Except this time it is only a field goal’s worth of points. Oh well, you get the idea. Washington has been playing some great football, and this looks like a prime time to pull off an upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

*Video with my best bowl bets coming out either Sunday or Monday this week… just check http://www.youtube.com/kingsrule41 sometime Monday!*

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, December 11, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m running out of cute and creative ways to say that I suck, I hate losing, and this is brutal.

So… I suck, I hate losing, and this is brutal.

I’d be lying if I said the cross-country move (among being laid off, etc) wasn’t affecting me… but I don’t want to use it as an excuse.

What amuses me so much about the run I’m on is the sheer unlikeliness of it. I’ll be the first to admit that many of these games simply come down to 50/50’s that I don’t have a strong opinion on. 4-11-1 two weeks ago and then 4-12 this week? Who did I piss off bad enough to get this curse bestowed on me?

Even assuming I’m not even a 50/50 and I’m say a 45/55, I should still be able to get to oh say a 7-9 or 6-10 week, no? Not so much.

Oh well. For you optimists out there, I’m “due”. Every single non-philosophy game can’t continue to go against me for the rest of the season, can it?

I’ve never had a season with a losing record ATS. Will take a lot of work to keep that streak alive.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 12 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 89 – 101 – 2 (.468)
Without the spread: 131 – 61 – 0 (.682)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 12 – 5 – 0 (.706)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New Orleans (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
Denver (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Minnesota (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)

THE BAD

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Tampa Bay (+5.0) @ Carolina (-5.0)
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
Tennessee (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Atlanta (+5.0)
Oakland (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh (-14.5)
Detroit (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
New England (-3.5) @ Miami (+3.5)
Houston (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
San Diego (-13.5) @ Cleveland (+13.5)
Dallas (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
Baltimore (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Feeling pretty good about this week. Let’s get this thing turned around!

THURSDAY

Pittsburgh (-11.0) @ Cleveland (+11.0)
Sorry I didn’t get this out on Thursday, but for record keeping sake, I’ll be counting this as a win. As I told a few friends, no way you can give double digits on the road here against a division rival with the way the Steelers were playing. The outright loss was surprising, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Green Bay (-4.0) @ Chicago (+4.0)
One look at this spread, and if you’ve been reading the Dime a while, you know what’s coming. Chicago is terrible, looking hopeless on offense even against a pitiful St. Louis team. Green Bay has been fantastic on both sides of the ball. Why isn’t this spread closer to 7? Vegas definitely wants you on Green Bay here, so as usual, I’ll go the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

New Orleans (-10.0) @ Atlanta (+10.0)
Last week I expected New Orleans to have an off day. This week, I think they return to their dominating ways; Matt Ryan is a game-time decision for the Falcons, and even if he plays, he won’t be 100%. They just aren’t the same team without him at his best.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+14.0) @ Baltimore (-14.0)
Baltimore’s offense really hasn’t played well enough of late to warrant trusting them to cover a spread like this, but against Detroit? I think they are overdue for a strong game anyway.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Denver (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Denver has picked the pace back up, but they run into a well-oiled machine this week in Indy. I just can’t pick against Peyton at home in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0)
Houston has played three straight games against division rivals (four straight if you include pre-BYE), and now they are giving up 7 points? Hard to have much left in the tank with all those rivalry games; and Seattle isn’t that much worse than Houston, either. Love the points, love that the public loves Houston, just love love love.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

N.Y. Jets (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
Tampa Bay is also coming off of three straight division rivalry games. We also get the Jets at a discounted price due to Sanchez’s injury. This isn’t quite a philosophy pick as TB isn’t favored, but it is still worth a good look.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Carolina (+13.0) @ New England (-13.0)
It may be hard to come to terms with the fact that New England has fallen off a bit, but giving up two TD’s worth of points on them? This may be the week they put it all back together, but Carolina scoring enough to get the cover seems more likely to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Miami (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
A virtual coinflip in my eyes that should be a fairly high-scoring affair and will likely come down to the finish, I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Buffalo (-1.0) @ Kansas City (+1.0)
After getting routed at home last week, Kansas City gets a much more manageable game this week against Buffalo. The Bills are the better team, but I don’t trust them on the road against what should be a fired up Cheifs team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Minnesota (-6.5)
As much as I respect Cincinnati and their defense, I expect Minnesota to have a bounce-back game this week after the ugly game against Arizona. Cinci hasn’t showed me enough on offense to make me think they can keep up if Minnesota gets into the high 20s in scoring as I expect them to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

St. Louis (+13.0) @ Tennessee (-13.0)
As nice as the Vince Young led turn around has been, the wins haven’t been in blowout fashion. 3 of the 4 wins before the Indy loss came by 7 points or less, and despite a 4-game losing streak, St. Louis hasn’t lost by more than 10 in any of them. All signs point to taking the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Washington (-1.0) @ Oakland (+1.0)
You all know how much I love Oakland and how thrilled I am when they show signs of life (Phi, Cin, Pit). But lets not overvalue that Steelers win; Pittsburgh is sinking and sinking FAST. The Cinci win was a perfect letdown situation. Quite simply, the Raiders are still a team with a lot of problems, and the Redskins have been playing better football than their record indicates. Lots of people loving the Raider upset this week… but I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

San Diego (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
Not quite a philosophy pick, but with the way San Diego has been playing of late, I’m surprised to see them getting more than a field goal here. People seem to be jumping all over it, too. That was my initial reaction as well, but I’ll go against the grain and see why Vegas wants us on the Chargers instead of the Cowboys.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
Another coinflip with plenty on the line for both teams. I like Philly’s defense just a little bit better at this point in time, so I’m going to gove them the nod in what should be a very entertaining game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Arizona (-3.5) @ San Francisco (+3.5)
Arizona showed us a lot last week in beating Minnesota, and I think they’ll have a tough time putting out another effort like that this week. San Francisco has been playing teams tough, and I think this week might be the week they pull off the win; or, at the very least, cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

*Bowl coverage coming soon*

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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By Dave Consolazio, December 4, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

In light of the shocking news of Tiger Woods’ affairs, I have decided that I too must apologize for my transgressions.

I’m sorry, NFL football. I’ve been seeing another league… the NCAAF.

It’s younger. It’s more colorful. It’s more fun.

Don’t look at me that way. YOU are the one that changed! I used to be so excited to cap every single game. Each game was its own unique puzzle just waiting to be solved. Spreads were in the single digits. You know, there were good games!

Nowadays, I try just as hard. But after stat crunching and everything else, it always just comes to a coinflip these days. One lousy team playing a better team that should cream them. When I guess lousy team, they get creamed (Detroit, Oakland). When I guess better team, they are lackluster (Cincinnati, Atlanta).

College, I only pick games I really like… so win or lose, at least I feel like it’s more than just a crapshoot.

Hmm. Perhaps I’ll remodel the Dime next year, only pick games I like and philosophy picks. That might put a spark back into this relationship.

Until then… I’ll just have to keep seeing college football on the side.

(**Note, thanks to those of you that pointed out that the Buffalo game was in Toronto. Ironically, I made the same mistake last year, you’d think I’d have learned. Double ironically, I took Buffalo last time for the same reason, too. Triple ironically, had I known it was in Toronto, I’d have taken the Bills to get revenge for embarrassing themselves last year in Toronto. So alas, I was going to lose anyway.)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 11 – 1 (.267)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 85 – 89 – 2 (.489)
Without the spread: 120 – 56 – 0 (.682)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 5 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo (+3.5)
Washington (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego (-13.5)
Arizona (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0) TIE
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5)
Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
N.Y. Giants (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Carolina (+3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.0)
Tampa Bay (+12.0) @ Atlanta (-12.0)
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Cincinnati (-14.0)
Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston (+3.5)
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
New England (+2.0) @ New Orleans (-2.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

N.Y. Jets (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo (LOSS)

SUNDAY

Tampa Bay (+5.0) @ Carolina (-5.0)
Since Josh Freeman has taken over at quarterback, the Buccaneers have kept their games close, with the exception of New Orleans. Carolina hasn’t shown enough to be considered a real threat to buck that trend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
Chicago is just terrible. But after getting humiliated last week by their hated rival Minnesota, they aren’t going to let a doormat like St. Louis come into their house and keep it close, are they? With the way my picks have been going, I’m sure they will.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Tennessee (+6.5) @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
Vince Young has re-energized the Titans into believing they can’t be beaten. Indianapolis, well, hasn’t been beaten. For quite a while. These two teams usually play close games, and with both teams playing confident and well, I expect it to come down to the wire, making 6.5 worth the risk in my book.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Atlanta (+5.0)
Two tricky teams to figure out here. I’m a bit thrown off by the spread; this one looks like a three or four point game either way to me. Philly is never completely healthy, and even when Atlanta loses they usually play tough; I’ll take the points at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Oakland (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh (-14.5)
At first, I was thinking Oakland has extra rest playing on Thursday, and Pittsburgh played Sunday night. Then I remembered, it’s the Raiders. I think I prefer having them magically show up to screw me over every once in a while to actually PREDICTING they’ll show up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Detroit (+13.0) @ Cincinnati (-13.0)
Last week, Cinci got a cupcake opponent and couldn’t win by two TDs. Will this week be any different? Who knows. But after the Thanksgiving Day massacre I took picking Detroit and Oakland, like the Raiders, I don’t have the patience to pick the Lions against a far superior team right now.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
The Redskins have quietly been playing some very respectable football, while the Saints have loudly been playing some amazing football. After the huge emotional blowout win over New England on Monday Night, a letdown game seems inevitable. Plus, you know how I love to bet against the seemingly invincible.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

New England (-3.5) @ Miami (+3.5)
When I saw this spread, I was thinking it looked a little fishy that New England’s spread was so low. Then I remembered how they got completely manhandled on national television. But was Miami’s awful effort against Buffalo much better? This has ugly written all over it, but I still have to go with the Patriots because, well, they’re the Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Houston (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
So which gives more, Houston’s rush defense or Jacksonville’s passing defense? My guess is, the one that I end up picking. Alas, I’m taking my chances on Houston making a few more stops and having success through the air.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Denver (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
Last week I blew it, Denver was a pretty clear philosophy pick. Oh well. This week, I don’t know what to do with them. Thanksgiving may have been a restart, but it may also have just been a flash in the pan. I lean the latter, but considering how bad Kansas City is, I’m still going with Denver here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

San Diego (-13.5) @ Cleveland (+13.5)
Through this disasterous little slump I’ve been in, San Diego has been kind enough to just go out there and win football games by a lot of points. That streak (and my luck riding it) will eventually run out, but as my Dad always says, “never kick a gift horse in the mouth”. (What the hell does that mean, anyway?)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Coinflips are a whole lot of fun when you are hot and your worst enemy when you are cold. Alas, decisions like this are why I get paid the big bucks (oh, wait, I don’t get paid anything. Right.) Seattle has played three straight road games, and I think a return home will give them the slight edge here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Dallas (-1.0) @ N.Y. Giants (+1.0)
The last time these two faced off, it was an offensive thriller that the Giants narrowly edged out. Since then, the Giants have looked awful, and the Cowboys have looked pretty damn good. Revenge seems to be in order here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Minnesota (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
Ah, thank goodness for philosophy picks. I just love when a near-perfect team coming off of a blowout win against a division rival faces off against a team coming off of a loss and the spread is way too low. I love it even more when about 80% of the public bets the near-perfect team at -5 or -4.5, and yet the line moves down even further, begging more people to bet on the team that’s seemingly the obvious pick. Sure makes my job a whole heck of a lot easier. You know the routine.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Arizona

MONDAY

Baltimore (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
Green Bay has been “one of those teams” for me this year… but than again, who hasn’t? It might be a trap, but I can’t help but take the points with Baltimore here; they are good enough to win outright, and three of their five losses have been by three points or less. Seems like another game they can at least keep close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

SEASON RECORD: 41 – 29 – 6 (.586)

*No new video this week due to move*

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!