Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(I will be posting a copy of the newsletter here on the site one day after I email it out. If you’d like to get it as soon as I email it out, email me at vegasdavesdime [at] gmail.com and let me know! I’ll add you to the list.)

Fooooooooooooooootball!

I really love World Cup soccer, and was happy to have a little futbol in my life this offseason, but nothing quite hits the spot like good ol’ NFL football.

Every team starts off 0-0. Fans around the country can all dream of trips to the Super Bowl.

Me? I just dream of six wins for the Raiders. It’s been seven years. Baby steps.

And speaking of seven years (how’s THAT for a seamless transition?), this is actually the DIME’s seventh year! Whether you are just joining in or have been a reader(/deleter) since ’04, thank you all for the support. Oh, and if you’ve been reading since ’04, wow. That’s some love right there. Or maybe it’s that can’t look away from a train wreck syndrome?

And speaking of train wrecks (oh my, he’s on fire!), last season didn’t go too hot, my first year ever with a losing record against the spread. Ironic that it came in my best year ever of picking winners without the spread. Go figure.

In any case, I’ve built myself a new home at http://www.davesdime.com, so when you have those midweek Davings (Dave + Cravings, see what I did there?), head there for old and new stuff.

What’s that? NO ONE ever gets those? Hmm. Maybe it’s all the Chipotle I’ve been eating.

But enough of this jibber-jabber; let’s get to football!

THE RECORD

2009 Season
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^Philosophy Picks^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

2008 Season
With the spread: 130 – 119 – 7 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

2007 Season
With the spread: 124 – 123 – 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 – 99 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 14 – 7 – 2 (.667)

2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.
^^Philosophy Picks^^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats and more closely at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that. Hitting over 60% lifetime with these! For more info, check out this video: http://www.davesdime.com/why-philosophy-picks-work/

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether I was right or wrong

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually picking some winners (or failing to, anyway)?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first-timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

Minnesota (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0)
I don’t know, something just feels off about giving up five points in this spot. Even with Favre’s ankle and rust, and the slew of injuries at WR that the Vikings are dealing with… I just can’t see a team this good go out there and just roll over in the season opener against the team that topped them in the NFC Championship Game last season. Drew Brees will do his damage, and the Saints aggressive D will look to batter and bruise Favre again… but look for the Vikings to still be in the game come the fourth quarter.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

SUNDAY

Carolina (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
Seemed like an easy enough pick at first to go with the Giants, but keep in mind that this Gmen defense was really bad last year, and the running game was off, too. Sure, it might all get back on track this year, but Carolina isn’t as bad as their made out to be, and Matt Moore is a smart game manager. I say Carolina keeps this one within reason.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Atlanta (-2.0) @ Pittsburgh (+2.0)
I’m expecting big things from Atlanta this year. Going into Pittsburgh against this stingy defense, even with an unproven Dennis Dixon at the helm, will not be easy. But I expect Matt Ryan to find a way, and pick up the win on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
A couple of long seasons ahead for these two rebuilding projects. The game changer here is Bucs QB Josh Freeman, who is a talented gamer that can win this game on his own at home. That, and I’m not convinced that Jake Delhomme will magically stop turning the ball over all of a sudden. I’m thinking TB gets one of their few wins of the season in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Denver (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
I’m picking Denver to finish last in the AFC West this year, so that should tell you how good I think they are. That said, their ultra-vanilla offense, and their wait-for-the-other-team-to-make-a-mistake mentality, could definitely work against a team like Jacksonville, who despite having one of the best running backs in the game always seems to find a way to shoot themselves in the foot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Indianapolis (-2.0) @ Houston (+2.0)
Two things almost ALWAYS happen when these two teams play; Indianapolis wins, and it’s a close game. I could easily see myself taking the Texans at +3.5 or more, but getting only two points? I’ll take my chances on Peyton’s side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Miami (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
At first, I was thinking this spread was a little fishy. But it seems like a lot of people like Buffalo here, and I must remind myself that lost in all the Jets and Patriots hype is the fact that the Dolphins are really good. Even CJ Spiller is getting more hype than the Dolphins. I’ll ride with the under-the-radar Dolphins at this discounted spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Detroit (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Perhaps the only game on the board I’m somewhat confident in. Chicago gets Urlacher back, and added Julius Peppers. This should be a great defensive unit, and despite the fact that Detroit has improved quite a bit, I don’t think they will be any match for the Bears this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Oakland (+6.0) @ Tennessee (-6.0)
I’d love to take Oakland here, and buy into the hype that Rolando McClain will turn the rushing defense around overnight. But even if that does turn out to be true, no one can figure out how to stop Chris Johnson. Lots of question marks on both sides here, and I could easily see it going either way; but most of the sure-things are on Tennessee’s side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Cincinnati (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5)
New England hasn’t lost a regular season game in New England since 2008. Well I say now is the time. There’s been way too much focus on off the field stuff (Tom Brady’s contract extension talks, Moss wanting an extension) this week, and this Cincinnati team is actually very strong. Should be a close game, and the Bengals just might end up taking it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

Arizona (-4.0) @ St. Louis (+4.0)
I can’t believe I’m going to pick the Rams, considering how absolutely miserable they are. Even with Bradford, this is still a very bad football team. That said, Arizona is due for a huge drop off this season, and while I generally don’t give much weight to the preseason, for a team that needed to sort some things out, they failed to do so. I actually think St. Louis carries the momentum they built into the preseason into one of their few wins of the season Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

San Francisco (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
With Arizona’s expected drop off, San Francisco is the clear favorite to win the NFC West. Pete Carroll and the Seahawkswill do what they can to prevent the 49ers from getting their title run off on the right foot; but if San Francisco puts a solid game together, they should have enough for the win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Philadelphia (+3.0)
I forgot how scary philosophy picks are. I forgot that they sometimes ask you to take a team breaking in a brand new starter against a clear-cut Super Bowl contender. I can’t ignore the fact that this game opened as a pick’em. I can’t ignore that 90% of all bets are coming in on the Packers. That last season’s best team against the spread at 11-4-1, Green Bay, is being given away at such a low price. Something is definitely not right. I want to be on the Packers, too, but you veteran readers know how philosophy picks work. When it looks like Vegas knows something we don’t, they probably do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Philadelphia

Dallas (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Everything seems to be clicking in Dallas, while Washington is having issues with their star Albert Haynesworth, and Donovan McNabb isn’t 100% healthy. The NFC East always plays eachother tough, so I hate giving up 3.5 on the road here, but there’s just too much to like about Dallas not to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

Baltimore (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
I’m all aboard with the Jets this season. The defense is amazing, Hard Knocks was awesome, and this could be a huge year for them, especially with Darrelle Revis back. The thing is, I like Baltimore better. While they give up the slight edge on defense, I think they carry a substantial edge on offense. Plus, Revis likely won’t be up to game speed just yet. In what should be an awesome game, I think the Ravens come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

San Diego (-4.5) @ Kansas City (+4.5)
Last season, Kansas City got beaten badly by San Diego in both of their meetings. I’m sure they remember that. It’s also common knowledge that San Diego almost always sleepwalks through the first five or so games of the season. I think San Diego isn’t as good as they are getting credit for this season, and Kansas City is better than they are getting credit for. So at home, I’ll take Kansas City and the points to at least keep it interesting.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

(In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I’ll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn’t bad enough, right?))

RECORD: 3 – 2 – 0 (.600)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-1/

USC -20.5 (LOSS)
Pittsburgh/Utah Under 49.5 (LOSS)
Arizona -16.5 (WIN)
Oregon State +13.5 (WIN)
SMU/Texas Tech Over 60.5 (WIN)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-2/

Georgia +3.5
Nebraska -28.0
Oregon -12.0
Ole Miss -20.5
USC -19.5
Florida Atlantic +28.5
Rice/North Texas Over 59.0

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!