Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Slumps suck.

I mean really. 2-11 in college football picks and 9-16-1 in pro football picks against the spread over the last two weeks?

I might as well be flipping coins. Throwing darts. Reading tarot cards.

Or, I could be throwing coins at tarot cards. You get the idea.

In any case, what can I do other than keep on keepin’ on?

Anyone else ready for Thanksgiving? Having an NFL game on a Thursday made me realize it was close. Turkey, stuffing, potatoes, yams, pies… Mmmm.

Yes, this is how my mind works. It is a 24/7 highlight reel of delicious food.

That, and the occasional football pick. I suppose I should get on with those, eh?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 8 – 1 (.333)
Without the spread: 12 – 1 – 0 (.923)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 60 – 64 – 6 (.484)
Without the spread: 73 – 57 – 0 (.562)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 9 – 9 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
New England (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
San Diego (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
Kansas City (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)
Chicago (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0) TIE

THE BAD

NY Jets (-4.0) @ Detroit (+4.0)
New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina (+6.5)
Miami (+5.0) @ Baltimore (-5.0)
Arizona (+7.5) @ Minnesota (-7.5)
NY Giants (-7.0) @ Seattle (+7.0)
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
Dallas (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Pittsburgh (-5.0) @ Cincinnati (+5.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

Way too many favorites for my liking this week… but gotta call ’em how I see ’em.

THURSDAY

Baltimore (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
You can’t really make a bad pick in this one, because whichever way you go you are getting one of the NFL’s best teams. Both of these teams were among my preseason picks to go all the way, so this isn’t an easy choice. While some may be siding with Atlanta due to the home field advantage, after much consideration, I’m going with Baltimore. Could easily go either way, but looking over Atlanta’s resume to this point, they don’t have a win over an elite team, unless you make a case for New Orleans. Baltimore meanwhile has already topped two of the NFL’s best teams on the road in the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers. Should be a great game, and I say the Ravens edge out a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

SUNDAY

Detroit (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Buffalo has lost their last three games by three points, including two overtime games, all against potential playoff teams (KC, Baltimore, and Chicago). They are playing much better on defense and are more than ready to pick up their first win. At home against a Detroit team that is a bit more at their level, I think they finally do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Minnesota (-1.0) @ Chicago (+1.0)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one. My head tells me Chicago; the stats favor them a bit, and it’s at home. But my gut says Minnesota. Chicago’s game has been slipping, and I don’t think Minnesota is as bad as their record indicates, even if they have been pretty damn bad this season. In the end, it will simply come down to which of these reckless quarterbacks makes more mistakes. I’ll guess Cutler does, and the Vikings pick up the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

NY Jets (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Cleveland is really turning some heads, and rightfully so. After beating New Orleans on the road before their bye, they topped New England in dominant fashion last week. Can they beat another elite team this week in New York? My guess is no. The Jets’ ugly game against Detroit should serve as a wake-up call, and while I’m not writing Cleveland off as a fluke, I think the Jets defense will be too much for them to handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Carolina (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0)
With Jonathan Stewart injured last week, Carolina’s already hopeless offense lost one of their last remaining weapons. Down to their fourth-string RB, even Tampa Bay’s lousy defense should be able to keep this team from doing much. Carolina’s defense will likely be on the field for most of the day, and it should be a comfortable win for the Bucs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Houston’s defense is flat out terrible, and Jacksonville has had a bye week to gameplan for it. Houston is sure to get their share of points too, but at home and feeling confident after a big win heading into the bye, Jacksonville should be able to out-shoot them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
Indianapolis has won all three of their home games this season by double digits, and all three teams they’ve beaten at home are better than the Bengals (NY Giants, KC, Houston). They’ve bounced back nicely off of losses this year, and against a Cincinnati team that is seriously lacking a pulse this season, I think they’ll keep these trends going.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Tennessee (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
So we’ve seen that Miami can’t quite beat the elite teams (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, New England, Baltimore)… but can they beat a great team in the tier right below those ones? We’ll find out this week. I’m expecting a very good game, but I have to side with Tennessee here; they’ve been on a roll offensively, have a solid defense, and as much as I like Chad Pennington, I have to believe he’ll make some mistakes in his return to action this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Kansas City (-1.0) @ Denver (+1.0)
Sure, I WANT Denver to win. If they do, the Raiders are tied for the lead in the AFC West. But realistically, not much points to a Denver win here; Kansas City is a very good team, and losing a tough one against the Raiders last week doesn’t change that. Also, Denver has the second worst rushing defense in the NFL, while KC has the league’s second best rushing attack. Most signs point to a Chiefs win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Dallas (+13.5) @ NY Giants (-13.5)
FINALLY, I’m taking the points! Got burned on Dallas last week, but can’t hold grudges when it comes to taking bad teams. That’s what philosophy picks are often about! Here, you don’t get a much more clear-cut case of bad VS. good, and you get a ton of points because of it. Dallas has lost five straight (lost all ATS as well), New York has won five straight (4-1 ATS). But much more recently, just last week, New York blew their opponent out 41-7, while Dallas lost to theirs 7-45. I’d often go against New York (let down) and for Dallas (bounce back) after lopsided games like that; when they are playing each other? It is a textbook philosophy pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Seattle (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Seattle was the victim of that blowout loss to New York, and it was their second straight blowout loss as they loss to Oakland by 30 the week before. NFL teams, no matter how bad, don’t often get blown out by 30+ in back to back games. Seattle is due to bounce back in a very big way, and what better time than going against a shaky Arizona team this week?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

St. Louis (+6.0) @ San Francisco (-6.0)
This spread feels a little bit like a trap, but I can’t help myself here. San Francisco has started to turn things around with wins in two of their last three which may be the reason for the big point spread here, but I don’t think they’ve done enough to warrant it. St. Louis is 0-3 on the road this season, but two of their losses have been close; they’ve fought hard in just about every game this season. I think the 49ers will come out on top, but it will be by a field goal or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Two Philosophy angles at work here. One, Pittsburgh is coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night, which often leads to a letdown the following week. Two, New England had by far their worst game of the season last week; and considering they were the only real upset last week, that had to be a shot at their pride. Pittsburgh is a great team, and I like them better on paper, but New England should come out firing on all cylinders to avoid losing a second straight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*New England

MONDAY

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
I’m expecting a little bit of revenge for Vick and the Eagles this Monday night. Last time these two teams played, Michael Vick was injured, and Washington beat Philadelphia on their own building. Philadelphia would love nothing more than to return the favor, and as long as Vick can stay healthy this time around, I believe they will.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 27 – 38 – 1 (.415)

(Have to have a winning week again sooner or later, no?)

Week 11 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-11/

Southern Miss +10
Northwestern +9.5
Kent State PK
Utah -5.0
Tulane -3.5
Washington State +23.5
Miami/Georgia Tech Under 50
SD State/TCU Under 53.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 10 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-10/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 11 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-11/

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