Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Most of you already know this; I have a love-hate relationship with sports.

Last week, I was in love. My LA Kings were in the midst of a six-game winning streak, I went 5-3 ATS in college picks and 8-6 ATS in pro picks. Good times for all.

This week? The Kings have lost three straight games (and look completely lost), I pick Miami Thursday night and they get shutout, and I pick Fresno State Friday night and they get shutout. I hate sports.

Makes me want to take up something else. Gardening? Yodeling? Model airplane building?

Would you guys still read if the Dime became a gardening newsletter? Instead of picking NFL games, I’m picking carrots and squash?

Sounds an awful lot more relaxing to me.

But who am I kidding, I don’t even like vegetables. And with a full slate of 16 games this week, I’ve got plenty to keep busy with.

But if things go sour this weekend, Dave’s Dime Week 12 might be about building a ship in a bottle.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 68 – 70 – 6 (.493)
Without the spread: 82 – 62 – 0 (.569)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 11 – 9 – 0 (.550)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

NY Jets (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Carolina (+7.0) @ Tampa Bay (-7.0)
Houston (+1.5) @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Dallas (+13.5) @ NY Giants (-13.5)
Seattle (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
St. Louis (+6.0) @ San Francisco (-6.0)
New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)

THE BAD

Baltimore (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
Detroit (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Minnesota (-1.0) @ Chicago (+1.0)
Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
Tennessee (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
Kansas City (-1.0) @ Denver (+1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

Chicago (+1.0) @ Miami (-1.0)
Well, last week I made the mistake of picking against Miami at home AND the mistake of going against Chicago when I felt the stats favored their side. Looks like I’ll be repeating my mistake no matter which way I go this week! With the second best rushing defense in the league, Chicago should match up well against Miami defensively; they are also much better at forcing turnovers than Miami is, which could be key in winning the turnover battle. But with two solid defenses, I believe this game will come down to quarterback play. And call me crazy, but I think Tyler Thigpen can make less mistakes and outplay Jay Cutler. I was impressed with him in Kansas City, and think he will do well here. This one kind of has a coin flip feel to it… hopefully it will land on (Dolphin) tails for me this time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

SUNDAY

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5)
Plenty of reasons to side with Buffalo here, as they’ve been playing some tough football of late. But I believe the main reason for that has been trying to pick up that elusive first win; now that they’ve got it, I think they’ll be a bit more complacent this week, and it’s underachieving Cincinnati’s turn to get the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Detroit (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
Wow, so Dallas pulls off a huge upset and now all of a sudden they are favored by nearly a touchdown? Sure, if they play like they did last week, they’ll blow Detroit out; but great games have been few and far between for this Dallas squad. Detroit, on the other hand, has played just about every game close this year. I think they keep it close again this week, and actually, I lean towards them finding a way to win outright and knocking Dallas back to earth once again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Washington (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
Both teams are coming off of big losses, so motivation shouldn’t really be a factor here. Perhaps Washington has a bit more embarrassment considering it was Monday Night… but that isn’t reason enough to side with them here. Their defense has been flat out awful, and they’ve looked lost the last few games; I think Tennessee bounces back with a big win in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Arizona (+8.5) @ Kansas City (-8.5)
Things seem to be unraveling a bit in Kansas City. Looking past the 3-0 start, KC is 2-4 in their last six with wins only over Jacksonville and Buffalo; and the Buffalo game was awfully close.Arizona is one of the worst teams in the league, but I don’t think they should be getting this many points here. I think they can at least keep this one within a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Last week’s loss to Chicago was, in all likelihood, the nail in the coffin on Minnesota’s season. This team has too many problems to overcome from top to bottom. They should get up for this game against hated Green Bay, but I don’t think it will matter. The Packers should be able to take care of business.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Houston (+7.0) @ NY Jets (-7.0)
On paper, considering how bad Houston is defensively, the Jets should win this one comfortably. But New York just seems to be one of those teams that plays to their opponent’s level this year. And as good as their defense is, they’ve given up exactly 20 points in four of their last five games. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them torch Houston here, but I’d be even less shocked to see them let Houston stick around into the fourth quarter, so that’s the way I’m leaning.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Oakland (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh (-7.5)
I’m shocked to see Oakland receiving this many points after winning three straight, especially against a struggling Pittsburgh team. But I actually think the books want people picking Oakland; Pittsburgh should come out extremely motivated after losing to New England at home last week, they have the league’s best rushing defense which doesn’t bode well for Oakland’s rushing attack, and Oakland really hasn’t faced anyone of Pittsburgh’s caliber this season. This game will show us Oakland’s true colors, and while the fan in me is sincerely hoping that I like what I see, I don’t think I will.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Baltimore (-11.0) @ Carolina (+11.0)
All week I thought I’d be taking Carolina to go against the grain, but I simply can’t for the life of me find any way to justify it. It isn’t really a philosophy pick situation, considering Baltimore is coming off of a loss and the spread has moved from Baltimore -8.0 to -11.0, indicating sportsbooks aren’t trying to keep you on Baltimore and instead are trying to balance the action. 11 points is an absurd amount for a home team in the NFL; but with a fourth string running back and a stay-at-home-dad-that’s-never-started-in-the-NFL going at quarterback, even I, in all of my love for underdogs and philosophy, can’t side with Carolina here. If you do, good luck, you are braver than I am.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cleveland (+1.5) @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
One of the most interesting matchups on the board this week, both teams have done a lot of good things this season and this one could easily go either way. I’ve personally been a bit more impressed with Cleveland’s play over the last month, and my model also favored Cleveland slightly; so I guess that’s the way I’ll go. Should be a good game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
This spread is very telling of which way sportsbooks want people betting. I’d say at -3.0, many might like San Francisco. But 3.5? Hard to lay that extra half point against a Tampa Bay team that’s been playing teams tough (and winning) all season. I think sportsbooks want people on Tampa Bay because they like San Francisco to win by 4+ here, and I do too. San Francisco is better than their record indicates, and Tampa Bay is worse than theirs indicate; think it starts to level out this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Seattle (+11.5) @ New Orleans (-11.5)
New Orleans has been playing great on both sides of the football lately, and they are coming fresh off of a bye week and get Reggie Bush back this week. Seattle’s win over Arizona last week didn’t make me forget their blowout losses to New York and Oakland the two weeks before, and I think they have another one coming their way this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Finally, a philosophy pick! Why do these always seem to come in the afternoon lately? Anyway, while it’s true that St. Louis has been a great home team this year at 4-1, should they really only be receiving three points at home here against Atlanta? The Falcons are tied for the NFL’s best record and are coming off of a great Thursday Night performance over Baltimore (which also means they’ve had extra rest). At only a field goal, they seem like a steal; but you guys know that I’m not a big fan of stealing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

Indianapolis (+4.0) @ New England (-4.0)
Indianapolis and New England always seem to put on a great game when they meet up. And while Indianapolis has a lot of injury problems right now, I don’t think this year will be any different. They have a lot more to prove in this game; they are just 2-3 on the road this year and haven’t proven they can win on the road, while New England is coming off of an impressive road win over Pittsburgh. It won’t be easy, but I think that extra bit of fire under Indianapolis will lead them to an upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

NY Giants (+3.5) @ Philadelphia (-3.5)
This is one of those gift-wrapped philosophy picks I love so much, and no waiting in line on Black Friday either! Philadelphia is coming off of a historically amazing Monday Night Football win on the road that everyone was watching and talking about over a division rival. New York on the other hand garnered a lot of discussion this week too after being embarrassed at home by the lowly Dallas Cowboys. Now New York has to go on the ROAD while Philadelphia is at HOME? When two teams on such completely opposite sides of the spectrum one week meet up the following week, I love the team that was on the low end last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*NY Giants

MONDAY

Denver (+10.0) @ San Diego (-10.0)
This one’s a tough call. I would be surprised at all if San Diego blew Denver out here, especially with Denver riding high after their big win over Kansas City this week. But on the other hand, Denver is a division rival and 10 points is an awful lot to get. I think I’ll side with San Diego; they’ve had the bye week to prepare, they’ve looked a lot better over the last few weeks, and after losing their last Monday Night Football game in Week 1 to the Chiefs, I think they’ll be extra motivated to make a statement on the big stage this time around.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 32 – 41 – 1 (.438)

Week 12 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-12/

Fresno State +30.5 (LOSS)
Michigan +4.0
Indiana +10.0
Stanford -6.5
Texas -21.0
New Mexico State +38
San Jose State/Hawaii Over 59.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 11 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-11/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 12 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-12/

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!