Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I believe that one of those filler lines that you are supposed to put on your resume or say in your job interview is that you are “goal oriented”

So, I’m 12 games under .500 with four weeks to go. That’s an average of 9-6-1 ATS every week from this point forward to finish .500.

This is my goal.

Awesome.

Other and equally realistic goals include bringing world peace, paying off the United States’ national debt, and winning the lottery.

Okay, so maybe it isn’t THAT far fetched. But it is pretty damned far fetched… I do kinda suck.

On the bright side, at least I kick ass at shopping. Got all of my Christmas shopping done weeks in advance, and got some great deals too!

Hmm. So to recap, I am an excellent discount shopper but I suck at picking football games.

How very manly.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 87 – 99 – 6 (.468)
Without the spread: 109 – 83 – 0 (.568)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 12 – 13 – 0 (.480)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (+8.0) @ Philadelphia (-8.0)
Chicago (-4.5) @ Detroit (+4.5)
San Francisco (+9.0) @ Green Bay (-9.0)
Denver (+9.0) @ Kansas City (-9.0)
Oakland (+13.0) @ San Diego (-13.0)
Carolina (+4.5) @ Seattle (-4.5)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
Dallas (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
Pittsburgh (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)

THE BAD

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Cincinnati (+6.5)
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Cleveland (+5.0) @ Miami (-5.0)
Buffalo (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Washington (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
St. Louis (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
NY Jets (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
Through the first seven games of each of their seasons, both of these teams looked to be in pretty good shape at 5-2. Now, Indianapolis is just 6-6 after losing four of five including three straight, and Tennessee is 5-7 having lost five straight games. With two teams clearly on the slide, it is hard to gauge which one will bounce back tonight. As usual, in situations like this, I have to side with Peyton Manning. He has been awful over the last three games with 11 interceptions over the three game span, compared to just four in the nine games that came before it. But I actually believe the short week may do him some good; with only three days to prepare, perhaps Manning and the Colts will have less time to over-think everything and just go out and play their game. If they do, it should be enough to beat the Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

SUNDAY

Cleveland (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
Two teams that are only playing for pride, but have been playing teams tough over the last two months. Should be a good game, but I’m going to go with Cleveland; Peyton Hillis has had a breakout campaign, and against Buffalo’s league-worst rushing defense, I think he’ll do some serious damage and lead the Browns to a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Cincinnati (+8.5) @ Pittsburgh (-8.5)
Seems clear enough that Pittsburgh will pick up the win, but will it be by nine points? Hard to say, as Cincinnati randomly puts some effort into a game every now and then (as they did last week against New Orleans). But with as bad as Cinci’s defense has been, Pittsburgh should be able to score into the 30’s, and against the Steelers’ tough D I don’t think the Bengals will keep up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Green Bay (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
Around this time of year, playing division rivals on the road can be dangerous; especially when you are looking ahead to a team like New England next week. Green Bay will likely get the win as they know how to close games and Detroit doesn’t, but it could be an uglier game than this spread suggests.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

NY Giants (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Under Leslie Frazier, Minnesota is 2-0, and are drawing comparisons to Dallas in that they’ve excelled since firing their coach. Let’s not get carried away; it was Washington and Buffalo. Much tougher test this week against the Giants, and one that I believe they will fail, with or without Favre.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Tampa Bay (-1.5) @ Washington (+1.5)
In a season of total madness, Tampa Bay has been one of the few teams that has been consistent every week. They lose to good teams (0-5 against teams over .500) and beat bad teams (7-0 against teams at or under .500). Washington is a bad team. Seems straight forward enough, right?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Atlanta (-7.5) @ Carolina (+7.5)
It doesn’t get any more philosophy/contrarian/road-less-traveled than taking the team with the worst record in the league against the team with the best record in the league. It is no surprise that 80% of bettors are on Atlanta; best vs. worst, doesn’t it seem obvious? I’d be taking the 1-11 team over the 10-2 team anyway, but it just sweetens the pot even more that the teams are division rivals AND it is in Carolina. On paper, this one should be a blowout, but on the field I expect it to be a lot closer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Oakland (+3.5) @ Jacksonville (-3.5)
Great game between two teams that need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Jacksonville has been playing teams tough pretty consistently lately, while Oakland played two awful games before randomly showing up in a huge way to upset San Diego last week. If Oakland shows up like that again this week, they win; as needless to say, as I die-hard fan, I certainly hope that is the case. But I’ve seen too many dud efforts from the Raiders this season, especially on the road… and I have a bad feeling that they fall short again in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Seattle has a reputation for being an awful road team (2-4), which I assume is the reason for this spread. But what has San Francisco done this season to be this big of a favorite? They may find a way to win, but even if they do, I don’t think it’ll be by much. I’m actually thinking, in the hunt for the easiest playoff spot in football (the NFC West’s), Seattle picks up the “upset” win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

St. Louis (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
It’s been a great season for St. Louis and Sam Bradford; but when you take a closer look, remarkably, they’ve only played two games against teams over .500, and lost both. On the road against a surging New Orleans team? I think they get exposed for the still-rebuilding team that they are.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Miami (+5.0) @ NY Jets (-5.0)
I’ve been wrong about every single Miami game (not just against the spread but straight up) for the last six weeks. Seventh time’s the charm? After getting completely humiliated on Monday Night against New England and spending the entire week hearing in the media that the Jets aren’t for real, I imagine they will be amped up enough Sunday to bounce back with a big win over Miami. Chad Henne is much more mistake prone than Tom Brady (obviously), and should have trouble against this Jets defense. Miami has proven me wrong six straight times before, though…
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Denver (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
This would be a philosophy pick because I in no way would possibly imagine taking Arizona on most weeks, but considering how awful Denver is and getting four points, it isn’t THAT crazy of a pick. Still, the Cardinals are really bad; and now they are starting a guy named John Skelton. Search that name on Google, and you get a poet laureate from the King Henry VIII era and a parental kidnapper, though I don’t think either is this Skelton. ANYWAY, why on earth would I take this awful team again? Well, for the same reasons as last week. Last week, I took them because they’d been humiliated at home the week before; and now they’ve been humiliated at home again. Is an NFL team really going to allow this to happen three straight times in their own building, all against sub-par opponents? If any NFL team will, it’d be this one, but I have to say no.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
I was just thinking that the wheels were falling off in Kansas City and that they weren’t for real, but then they won three straight games. Plenty of respect to them for that, but their opponents were Arizona, Seattle, and Denver. This week, they get San Diego, who has to be extremely furious not only for losing at home last week to the Raiders, but for losing to Kansas City in Week 1 as well. No disrespect to Kansas City, but with the frustration I expect San Diego to show up with this weekend, this should be a blowout win for the Chargers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

New England (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Beat a fellow 9-2 division rival Super Bowl favorite 45-3 on Monday Night Football? That’s one way to make a huge statement. New England prepared for that game for 10 days, and it showed; they left it all on the field with their best game of the season, by far. For that reason, I have to go against them this week; even though Brady and the offense have been very consistent, I just can’t see them bringing last week’s intensity again this week. And on top of that, Chicago is pretty damn good. I think the Pats’ defense comes back down to earth this week and the Bears pull off the upset at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Chicago

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas (+3.5)
Since Jason Garrett has taken over, Dallas has looked like what they were supposed to be at the start of the year; a serious playoff contender. It is too little too late this season, but it doesn’t mean they won’t continue to play some great games in the spoiler role down the stretch. While I do think Philadelphia will find a way to claw out the win here, I like Dallas with the points, as I think they can shoot out with Philadelphia and keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Baltimore (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
Baltimore’s offense has been an issue lately, but what better remedy than the horrible Houston Texan’s defense? The Texans routinely give up 30+ points, and Baltimore should have no trouble getting into at least the high 20’s. The Ravens’ defense has been sharp lately, and should be able to slow down Houston enough to pick up the road win for Baltimore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 38 – 49 – 1 (.437)

Bowl Predictions/Analysis may be coming… have to think about what I want to do.

Good luck! Thanks for reading!
For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 14 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-14/
My College Football Top 25 for the Regular Season Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-rankings-regular-season-final/

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