Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

NO NEGATIVITY IN THE INTRO TODAY!

It is one week ’til Christmas after all! I am CHEERFUL!

No mention of how my usually reliable philosophy picks suck this year, or that the Raiders played their way out of a playoff spot last week, or that the Kings are riddled with injuries and that makes me sad.

None of that. (Well, other than that.)

One of my best pals in the world is back in town (who inexplicably reads the Dime every week despite not giving a damn about football, welcome back my friend), I’m heading to Vegas for three nights with the girlfriend on Monday (who also reads the Dime, but that makes more sense, hi baby!), and CHRISTMAS is a week away! What’s not to be cheerful about?

To the couple hundred of you not mentioned in the above sentence, I apologize. Perhaps I will someday write a memoir and talk about all of the good people that read my newsletter over the years despite its shocking lack of correct predictions. Until then, know that I appreciate you all; even the ones that delete me every week instead of just breaking the news to me and asking to be removed from the list.

I might have to actually get started on the Dime a little earlier next week when I get back from Vegas. Can’t stay up all night writing on Christmas Eve… Santa might not come with my presents!

Yes, that’s right. I’m a 24 (25 in January) year old man talking about Santa Claus coming to visit. Sue me. I’ve been listening to Christmas songs all month, and I’m starting to believe again.

After all, Santa seems more realistic to me than me stringing together three straight winning weeks. But we can all try to believe, right?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 96 – 106 – 6 (.475)
Without the spread: 120 – 88 – 0 (.577)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 12 – 15 – 0 (.444)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cincinnati (+8.5) @ Pittsburgh (-8.5)
Green Bay (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
NY Giants (-3.0) @ Minnesota (+3.0)
Oakland (+3.5) @ Jacksonville (-3.5)
St. Louis (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
Denver (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
Kansas City (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas (+3.5)
Baltimore (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Tennessee (+3.0)
Cleveland (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
Tampa Bay (-1.5) @ Washington (+1.5)
Atlanta (-7.5) @ Carolina (+7.5)
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Miami (+5.0) @ NY Jets (-5.0)
New England (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

San Francisco (+10.0) @ San Diego (-10.0)
Is there any way not to pick San Diego in this spot? The Chargers are rolling and have been playing great football of late, with the exception of their loss to Oakland. I think San Diego got ahead of themselves, as they were sporting wristbands that said “this division is ours” before the Raider game. The Raiders knocked them back down to earth a bit, and they responded with a dominant effort over the Chiefs. I believe that the Chargers are now re-focused and know they can’t afford another loss, and should bring their A-game for the remaining three games on the schedule. As for San Francisco, all five of their wins have come against sub-.500 teams. This team hasn’t shown the ability to hang with a team like San Diego, and Alex Smith will likely have a rough day against this defense. 10 points is a lot to cover, but I can’t find a reason to take the 49ers here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

SUNDAY

Cleveland (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
With San Diego and Baltimore as the only two games left on the schedule after this one, Cincinnati has to know that this week is their best remaining chance at a win. The Bengals have fought hard in some games during their 10-game losing streak, and have mailed it in plenty of times as well. Against a division rival that they have a shot at beating? This SHOULD be one of their good effort days, and if it is, they may finally break their long losing streak.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Washington (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Mike Shanahan’s inexplicable benching of Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman this week is one of the worst football decisions I’ve seen in a while. Furthermore, it’s the type of “I am the coach, I do what I want” mentality that loses a locker room. The way Dallas is playing right now is reason enough to take them, but I’d be surprised to see Washington’s best effort Sunday after this awful move, making Dallas look even better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Houston (+1.0) @ Tennessee (-1.0)
Two teams that fought hard in losing efforts last week. Houston won 20-0 last time around, but that was with Rusty Smith in at quarterback. With Kerry Collins’ big arm back under center, the Texans secondary will likely get torched again as it has all season, and the Titans will break their losing streak at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Jacksonville (+4.5) @ Indianapolis (-4.5)
I can’t pick against Peyton Manning in this game with all the marbles in the AFC South on the line. But what I also can’t do is assume the Jags are just going to roll over. This team is playing great football, and has a ton of confidence; two claims that the Colts probably can’t make at this point. I’ll take Indy to win, but I expect Jacksonville to fight right to the end and keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Kansas City (+1.5) @ St. Louis (-1.5)
If Matt Cassel starts (as I believe he will), the Chiefs should win this game. Kansas City has already blown out Arizona, Seattle, and San Francisco; I don’t expect anything different in this game. St. Louis is a decent team, but they are a few years behind Kansas City in their development. The Chiefs should take this one, especially coming off of last week’s humiliating effort against San Diego.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Buffalo (+5.0) @ Miami (-5.0)
I’ve now been wrong about Miami both straight up and against the spread seven straight times. But I think I might finally be on to them! After going into New York and beating the Jets, now we are supposed to be impressed and say “certainly they will beat the lowly Bills at home!”, right? I would… but the Dolphins haven’t won two straight since weeks one and two. Their MO just seems to be to lose after every win. So for no football reasons at all, I’m going with Buffalo.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Detroit (+4.5) @ Tampa Bay (-4.5)
Still can’t believe that -1.5 spread bit me last week on Tampa Bay, but alas. They continued their winning streak against under-.500 teams, and will likely do so again this week. Detroit did an excellent job upsetting Green Bay last week, but I don’t expect a repeat effort from them. Also can’t believe Tampa Bay might actually be playoff bound… wow.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Arizona (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
Carolina is the worst team in the league, as their 1-12 record would indicate. They are coming off of their second straight blowout loss and Arizona is coming off of a huge win… but none of that matters too much. Arizona is right there at the bottom of the league with the Panthers, and their big win last week was fluky and against the lowly Broncos. I think it is quite telling the Carolina is favored here… and I think they do pick up win number two.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New Orleans (+1.5) @ Baltimore (-1.5)
Gut check game for both teams. New Orleans is playing great and have won six straight, but they’ve played five straight against non-playoff teams; this is their first real road test in a while. As for Baltimore, they aren’t playing their best recently, and need to get the offense going. Should be a great game, and I give the hot Saints the slight edge and believe they are up to the task of beating a great team on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
Another great game, and control of the NFC East hangs in the balance. The Giants came close last time around, but couldn’t seal the deal. Both teams are playing well and this could easily go either way; but I’m giving the advantage to the home team here. The defensive line should be able to do enough to at least make Vick uncomfortable, and the offense can do the rest.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Atlanta (-6.0) @ Seattle (+6.0)
I’ve taken Seattle and gone against Atlanta too many times to know how that will turn out. Atlanta is on a tear, and their “let down game” seems to be nowhere in sight. A look ahead to next week’s New Orleans game isn’t out of the question, but I’m done looking for this team to let up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

NY Jets (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)
With Pittsburgh’s defense and New York’s inability to move the ball (no touchdowns in two straight games), a comfortable Pittsburgh win seems to be the popular opinion here. It’s a fair assumption, but I’m not willing to completely rule the Jets out just yet. Don’t think they’ll win, but I think they’ll find a way to make it a competitive game; especially with Troy Polamalu out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Denver (+7.0) @ Oakland (-7.0)
So Denver gets blown out by one of the worst teams in football, and this week they face the Raiders, who embarrassed them handily in their own stadium to the tune of a 59-14 demolishing. Understandable that the Raiders are such a heavy favorite. But I don’t expect this to be the easy Oakland win that it is projecting to be. As usual, I hope I’m wrong; but the loss to Jacksonville was extremely demoralizing (giving up 31 points in the second half and surrendering their lead), and San Diego’s huge win over San Francisco made the Raiders slim playoff chances even slimmer. I think the Oakland sideline will be a bit demoralized, and Denver will be fired up considering their recent blowout losses and Tim Tebow’s first start under center. Again, hope I’m wrong, don’t hate me fellow Raider fans; but I like Denver in the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Denver

Green Bay (+14.0) @ New England (-14.0)
Apparently we’ve turned the clocks back to 2007, when the Patriots were an unbeatable machine and were steamrolling opponents every week. Doesn’t get much more convincing than outscoring two 9-win teams 81-10 over the last two weeks. With Ryan Grant and now Aaron Rodgers out, the Packers simply don’t have the talent on the field to put points on the board right now. And no matter how well the defense plays, New England will get theirs at home. I hate giving up this many points, but New England looks like the right side, even -14.0. The Packers’ playoff chances might be in trouble with a loss here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

Chicago (-7.5) @ Minnesota (+7.5)
Well, on paper, this looks like a slam dunk for Chicago. Brett Favre is out, as is Tavaris Jackson, leaving the reins to rookie quarterback Joe Webb against one of the league’s toughest defenses. But this game hits a few philosophy points; one, I love home division underdogs at this time of year. Two, I like teams with nothing to lose against teams that NEED a win. What does Minnesota have to lose here? They can play loose and take chances, no one is expecting anything from them. All the pressure is on Chicago. The game will be played in the bitter cold of the outdoor stadium of the University of Minnesota. Chicago may come out on top, but I think this one will be a cold, ugly, physical game; and I like getting 7.5 points on the Minnesota side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 38 – 49 – 1 (.437)

Bowl Predictions/Analysis may be coming… still thinking!

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 15 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-15/
Why LeBron James to Cliff Lee Comparison is Incredibly Stupid: http://www.davesdime.com/lebron-james-cliff-lee-comparison-stupid/

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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