2010 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 16

By , December 25, 2010

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Ho Ho Ho, Merry Christmas!

I’ve actually put on enough weight over the last few weeks to play the part of Santa, so that laugh is fairly convincing.

Okay, maybe not THAT much weight… but yeah, I’m officially done with cookies after today.

In other news, despite the getting up super early to exchange Christmas gifts with the family and then going back to sleep, there IS an NFL game today, and a full card tomorrow. As much as I’d love to slip into my food coma and play with my new presents, there is business to attend to.

After all, what would Christmas be without the Dime? (Fairly normal, I’d imagine).

Merry Christmas to all that celebrate it, and to those that don’t, still hope you are having a great day and have a great weekend!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 104 – 114 – 6 (.477)
Without the spread: 131 – 93 – 0 (.585)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 12 – 17 – 0 (.414)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

San Francisco (+10.0) @ San Diego (-10.0)
Cleveland (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
Houston (+1.0) @ Tennessee (-1.0)
Kansas City (+1.5) @ St. Louis (-1.5)
Buffalo (+5.0) @ Miami (-5.0)
Arizona (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
Atlanta (-6.0) @ Seattle (+6.0)
NY Jets (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)

THE BAD

Washington (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Jacksonville (+4.5) @ Indianapolis (-4.5)
Detroit (+4.5) @ Tampa Bay (-4.5)
New Orleans (+1.5) @ Baltimore (-1.5)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
Denver (+7.0) @ Oakland (-7.0)
Green Bay (+14.0) @ New England (-14.0)
Chicago (-7.5) @ Minnesota (+7.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

THURSDAY

Carolina (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Well, I hate giving up this many points, especially in such a meaningless game. But a few factors have me picking Pittsburgh in this one. For one, the obvious; the Steelers are clearly the much better team. More importantly than that, Carolina doesn’t have a passing game to speak of, and needs to be able to run the ball to stand a chance; something they won’t be able to do against this elite Steelers rushing defense. Also factor in that Carolina is not a cold-weather team, and as if playing on the road hasn’t been tough enough for them, it’ll be even tougher in the bitter cold. Then you’ve got the fact that Pittsburgh is coming off of a disappointing home loss last week and will want to take their frustration out on Carolina this week. Despite the big number, all signs seem to point to the Steelers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

SATURDAY

Dallas (-7.0) @ Arizona (+7.0)
If you are a weekly reader of the Dime, you should know how I feel about Arizona by now. This is a barely functioning football team, and while I’m none-too-pleased with Dallas giving up their huge lead last week and failing to cover, I still think they are more than capable of staying hot and winning big against this hopeless bunch.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

SUNDAY

New England (-8.0) @ Buffalo (+8.0)
Near the end of the year I tend to go philosophy pick crazy with a few angles; picking against teams that need wins over lowly opponents, and picking division underdogs at home. The reason for each being that teams needing the win will be more tense and the lowly team has nothing to lose and can play loose and do some damage. Similarly, division underdogs at this time of the year often aren’t playoff teams, and should be plenty motivated to get a win over a hated division rival that will be looking ahead to the playoffs or tense. New England doesn’t “need” a win, but with one they would clinch home field throughout… something Buffalo would love to prevent. Philosophy picks haven’t worked well this year, but I’ll stick with them to the end and take the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

NY Jets (+1.0) @ Chicago (-1.0)
Very interesting game here between two 10 win teams that nobody seems sure of what to make of. Both are coming off of big wins, and while Chicago has been tough at home this season, the Jets have also played very well on the road. In a close one, I have to go with the team I believe is better in the New York Jets
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Cleveland (+3.5)
Another example of a philosophy pick based on being a lowly team and a home divisional underdog. This time, it also doesn’t hurt that Baltimore is such a small favorite coming off of a big win over New Orleans while Cleveland lost to awful Cincinnati… Las Vegas definitely wants people betting the Ravens in this one (and over 80% are).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland

Tennessee (+5.0) @ Kansas City (-5.0)
As a Raider fan, I’m rooting hard for Tennessee to pick up the win here to keep the Raiders’ super slim playoff chances alive. While I’m not expecting the Titans to come through, I do think this will be a good game between two teams that run the ball really well, and while the Chiefs may win, I think it will be by three or four.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

San Francisco (+2.5) @ St. Louis (-2.5)
Amazing that this awful game has playoff implications… but alas, with a win here St. Louis puts themselves in a great position to win the NFC West. The Rams are far from a complete team, but the 49ers are worse, and at home I think Sam Bradford has enough magic left in the hat to get the job done this time around.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Detroit (+3.5) @ Miami (-3.5)
See, I finally figured the Dolphins out last week! And NOW we are all saying Detroit has won two straight over good teams, Miami is awful at home and just lost to Buffalo at home, so we should take Detroit and the points this week… nope, don’t be fooled. We must always go against our instincts when it comes to the 2010 Dolphins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Washington (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
Hate being on Washington here despite their strong effort last week, but this game definitely falls under the team needing a win vs. awful opponent rule. If the Redskins play like they did last week, they have a shot at an upset; and it doesn’t hurt their chances that Jacksonville will be without Maurice Jones-Drew.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Oakland (+3.0)
This spread may look “off” to the untrained eye, but it really isn’t. When you consider Indianapolis’s struggles on the road this season and their suspect rush defense, Oakland is not a good draw for them. On the flip side, the Raiders’ passing defense has been awful in many games this season, and it doesn’t get much harder to defend than Peyton Manning. So which side gives? I have to side with Peyton here; it could easily go either way, but I still don’t believe this football world is upside down enough that the Colts miss the playoffs. We’ll see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Houston (-2.5) @ Denver (+2.5)
Denver is starting Tim Tebow again… good for them. Houston fans can now hear the announcers clamor over what a competitor he is for the entire four quarters this week. On the bright side, Texans fans will probably get to see a win too, because Denver isn’t likely to stop Houston’s attack, and Tebow is more likely to make a mistake or two than Schaub is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

San Diego (-7.5) @ Cincinnati (+7.5)
Another team desperately needing a win against a team with nothing to lose. Plus, Cincinnati finally won last week, so should have a little confidence boost coming into this week. Hard to see them doing much to slow down the Chargers; but part of the fun of philosophy picks is expecting the unexpected.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

NY Giants (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
One of the best games on the board this week, there is only room in the playoffs for one of these teams. Doesn’t get a whole lot better than this at the end of the season. It’s a tough one to call, but without getting cute with predictions, I just have to go with the team I think is better, and that is New York. I doubt Aaron Rodgers will be 100%, and I think the Giants learned a valuable lesson about playing all four quarters last week. It should be a great game right down to the finish, and I think the G-men find a way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Giants

Seattle (+6.0) @ Tampa Bay (-6.0)
I don’t have much respect for Tampa Bay at all… but I have even less for Seattle. After losing to Detroit at home last week, Tampa Bay should be ready to bounce back with a good effort against the Seahawks. Once again, it is very sad that this game has playoff implications, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Minnesota (+14.5) @ Philadelphia (-14.5)
After the horrendous display that Minnesota and Joe Webb put on last Monday night, it is understandable that they are receiving so many points. But not only does this game meet the bad team vs. team that needs a win criteria (Philadelphia still playing for home field and haven’t locked up a playoff spot just yet), but it also features one team coming off of an amazing game (Philly’s big comeback) and one coming off of an awful game. It will be hard for the Eagles to match last week’s intensity, and the Vikings should be hungry for redemption this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

New Orleans (+2.5) @ Atlanta (-2.5)
Best game on the board comes Monday night between two of the NFC’s best. This one really is a coin flip in my opinion, and I’d love to see it played out in a seven game series… but sadly, they don’t have those in football. I must side with Atlanta; every time I’ve picked against them at home against great teams, they’ve made me pay. This team continues to win convincingly, and adding another impressive win to their resume and locking up a first round bye seems on par with the season they are having.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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