Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(I will be posting a copy of the newsletter here on the site one day after I email it out. If you’d like to get it as soon as I email it out, email me at vegasdavesdime [at] gmail.com and let me know! I’ll add you to the list.)

So you spend months leading up to the NFL season, tirelessly combing through hundreds of old blog posts, articles, videos, and podcasts, building an all encompassing website just in time for the 2010 football season. The stage is set for greatness. The great rise to the occasion.

Me? I trip over my own feet and face plant on the concrete.

Veteran readers of the Dime know how cranky I get when I have a disastrous week. Many-a-time I’ve whined about how unfair it is, planned my retirement, etc.

At 2-9-3 against the spread Sunday, I had all of that ready. The works. The type of self-depreciating humor that forgets the part where it’s supposed to be funny. Just a good old fashion I-suck-at-life fest.

Fortunately, Monday night was very kind to me, with both of my picks coming through, which DOUBLED my win total for the week. That made me happy and made me feel slightly (albeit very slightly) less useless.

So blame the Jets and the Chargers for depriving you of a full-on Dave-hate extravaganza. Instead, you just get this thinly veiled variety of self-loathing.

4-9-3. Way to raise the bar for yourself, slugger.

Can’t be much worse this week. Or can it? Here goes nothing.

THE RECORD

With the spread: 4 – 9 – 3 (.308)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Oakland (+6.0) @ Tennessee (-6.0)
Baltimore (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
San Diego (-4.5) @ Kansas City (+4.5)
Minnesota (+5.0) @ New Orleans (-5.0) TIE
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0) TIE
Arizona (-4.0) @ St. Louis (+4.0) TIE

THE BAD

Carolina (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
Atlanta (-2.0) @ Pittsburgh (+2.0)
Denver (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
Indianapolis (-2.0) @ Houston (+2.0)
Detroit (+6.5) @ Chicago (-6.5)
Cincinnati (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5)
San Francisco (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Philadelphia (+3.0)
Dallas (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Pittsburgh (+5.0) @ Tennessee (-5.0)
Pittsburgh served up a nice reminder last week; this is still one of the elite defenses in the league. One of the league’s best rushing defenses is even better when Troy Polamalu is healthy, and they should be able to slow down the Young/Johnson connection. Even without Roethlisberger at quarterback, Pittsburgh’s o-line won’t get pushed around like Oakland’s did, and should help the Steelers get some points on the board. Tennessee wins, but Pittsburgh keeps it within four points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Miami (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
I like Miami, but this is a tough spot for them. It won’t be easy to come off of a division rivalry game on the road (even if it was against the lowly Bills) with a top-notch effort on the road again this week, especially against a Minnesota team trying desperately to avoid falling to 0-2. I like the Vikings to take care of business.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
Arizona is in my opinion going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and last week’s nail-biter against St. Louis didn’t do much to sway my opinion. After a disappointing opener against Pittsburgh, the talented Falcons have no excuse this week at home against the inferior Cards, who are playing their second straight game on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati (+2.5)
Extremely difficult to pass up on a home-dog in a division rivalry game, but 2.5 points isn’t quite enough. After losing to Cincinnati twice last season, Baltimore has plenty of motivation to use this game to make a statement that this will be their year in the AFC North. Cincinnati will be fine this season, but two tough games to draw early on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Kansas City (+2.5) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Gift-wrapped philosophy pick. Any time a team beats a division rival on Monday Night and plays a non-division rival the following week, it’s pretty much an automatic philosophy pick for me. But even if this weren’t automatic, the fact that this Kansas City team that electrified on Monday Night with the whole country watching over one of the AFC’s elite teams in San Diego is an underdog to pretty much everyone’s unanimous choice as the worst team in the league? AND, that horrible team (Cleveland) will be even worse with Jake Delhomme doubtful? AND the fact that the spread hasn’t changed despite 80% action on KC and this injury news? Las Vegas couldn’t be begging us to take Kansas City more. I’ll happily go the other way in a big letdown spot for the Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland

Chicago (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Chicago somehow managed a win last week, but they looked horrible doing it. It pains me to turn back to them, but with their sound defense and the disastrous game that Dallas’s offensive line had last week, I’m not comfortable laying seven points on the Cowboys just yet.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
Not quite a philosophy pick, but close. Everyone and their mother (85%+) loves the Eagles this week, and expects Mike Vick to run roughshod over the Detroit Lions. It’s hard to see it any other way, especially with Matt Stafford out for Detroit. But something tells me Detroit is going to dig deep and surprise a lot of people this week. I’m not confident enough to pick the outright upset, but I say they surprise everyone with a tough game Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Buffalo (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)
Not only does Green Bay just win games, they cover spreads, too. Last season’s best team against the spread (11-4-1) even conquered my philosophy pick last weekend. Most teams I feel uncomfortable laying 13 points for, but not the Packers. They always seem to bring their best. Ryan Grant’s injury may hurt Green Bay this season, but it won’t be this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
It may not have been noticeable last week, but Carolina is in my opinion still a clear tier above the Buccaneers. Beating Cleveland at home (barely) is one thing; I’d need more points to consider Tampa Bay on the road against the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Seattle (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
Seattle is a very popular pick after last week’s blowout win over San Francisco. I’m not buying that the transformation is complete. Denver doesn’t impress me at all, but I think they’ll play a safe enough game to prevent Seattle from building the momentum they did last week, and hand Pete Carroll his first loss as Seattle’s coach.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

St. Louis (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)
I’m not super-confident in the Raiders very often (if ever?), but this week is one of those spots. Public perception is drastically skewed from last week’s results; this St. Louis team, while putting together some promising pieces, is still a long way away in their rebuilding process. And Oakland may be bad, but they aren’t as bad as they looked against Tennessee, which was a horrible matchup for them. At home against St. Louis, coming off of last week’s embarrassing loss, I don’t see the Raiders dropping to 0-2.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Houston (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
This one will be interesting, with both teams coming off of impressive upset wins over their Super-Bowl-favorite division rivals. I like Washington for a few reasons in this spot; one, they are at home. Two, as a general rule, if I can’t decide in a tough game, I will always lean towards the shutdown defense over the high-powered offense. Washington just shutdown an extremely loaded Dallas attack last week; let’s see how good this defense is against this Houston attack.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

New England (-3.0) @ NY Jets (+3.0)
If the Cleveland philosophy pick is gift-wrapped, this one is gift-wrapped in silk and comes in a a basket full of chocolates. Let’s just reel off all of the philosophy-elements to this game.

1. Last week’s results: New England looked to be back in video-game form with a healthy Wes Welker in the first half against a very good Cinci team, they cruise easily. New York has one of the worst offensive games I’ve ever seen (coming from a Raider fan, that says a lot), on national television Monday Night no less. Clear-cut one team coming off of a great game, one off of a horrible game.
2. Opening spread: New England -1.0? Now New England -3.0? It’s no surprise, considering the results listed above, that New England would be circled on almost everyone’s board. Then they get this gift of a spread? No shocker that 85%+ bet New England (90% early). Could have easily opened at -3.0 or -3.5 and received equal betting on both sides. Where did bookmakers want you betting?
3. Home pride: Any team that loses at home as a favorite that is an underdog at home the following week is an automatic for me, considering how much any team would want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in front of their home fans again when they “should have” won last week. Plus, the added bonus of no travel.
4. High powered offense VS. shutdown defense: About as textbook as it gets in this one.

There are no guarantees in sports, especially when it comes to picking against a team of New England’s caliber. And even if my philosophy picks are 60% career, that means they still lose 2 of every 5. But with that disclaimer, won’t see to many that fit the bill this beautifully. I’m loving the Jets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*NY Jets

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Oh San Diego. What to do with you? This team always starts off slow, but when they win, they tend to win big. I’m not worried about the spread so much as I’m worried about the loss. But then, if I’m taking Oakland at home over an inferior opponent because they got embarrassed last week, this pick has to pretty much be a slam dunk, doesn’t it?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

NY Giants (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
Let’s just tip our cap to Houston for an excellent game, and move on with our lives. Indianapolis isn’t losing their home opener and falling to 0-2 on prime-time television. Will they cover the spread? That remains to be seen, but I’ll take my chances. And no, I’m not worried about the rushing defense. They’ve won 12 games with bad rushing defenses before.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

New Orleans (-5.5) @ San Francisco (+5.5)
Seems obvious to take New Orleans, considering the extra days of rest, and the fact that, well, they are New Orleans. Since Mike Singletary has taken over in San Francisco though, this has been a team that has fought hard. Last week’s blowout loss was very uncharacteristic. There is just too much buzz and confidence around this team from the preseason to get blown out two straight weeks, this time at home and on Monday Night. New Orleans’ habit of letting teams stick around doesn’t hurt my decision, either. I’ll take the points on the 49ers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 6 – 6 – 0 (.500)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-3/

Penn State -21.0
Missouri -13.5
Tulsa +7.0
SMU -23.0
Texas Tech +3.0
Alabama/Duke Under 58

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 2 Here:
http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-2/
and my College Football Top 25 for Week 3 Here:
http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-3/

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