Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(I will be posting a copy of the newsletter here on the site one day after I email it out. If you’d like to get it as soon as I email it out, email me at vegasdavesdime [at] gmail.com and let me know! I’ll add you to the list.)

10-5-1! (Yaaaaay!)

4-9-3. (Booooo!)

14-14-4! (…)

Nothing? Anyone? Pity clap?

I’m kind of like that creepy cousin you have (yes, you, don’t look around) that keeps digging holes and then filling them back up with the dirt he just dug up.

Then again, at least he’s getting some exercise and sunlight.

Heck, I mean I’d love to do a song and dance about how much I rule, but after week one’s disaster, that’s a bit tricky. I mean I lost a subscriber after week one!

Would he be willing to take me back if he knew how great I did last week? I just want to start with a clean slate. Isn’t that what a .500 record is? A blank canvas? An open field? A (generic thing which is blank)?

Oh, right, he can’t read this. It wasn’t sent to him. (Sigh…)

Well, thank the rest of you for sticking with me through thick and thin. My heart may be 1/372 parts broken, but I must press on! Let’s keep this winning streak alive!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 5 – 1 (.667)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 14 – 14 – 4 (.500)
Without the spread: 16 – 16 – 0 (.500)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Pittsburgh (+5.0) @ Tennessee (-5.0)
Arizona (+6.5) @ Atlanta (-6.5)
Chicago (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
Philadelphia (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
Buffalo (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)
Seattle (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
New England (-3.0) @ NY Jets (+3.0)
Jacksonville (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
NY Giants (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
New Orleans (-5.5) @ San Francisco (+5.5)
Houston (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Miami (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati (+2.5)
Kansas City (+2.5) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
St. Louis (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Tennessee (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
Two 1-1 teams coming off of extremely ugly losses, so motivation shouldn’t really be a factor here. Therefore, I have to go with the team that I believe is better at this point; and that’s the the Tennessee Titans. Going into New York won’t be easy, but Chris Johnson should be itching for a big day after last week’s rare stumble, and Tennessee’s defense should be tough enough to give Eli and the Giants some trouble.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Pittsburgh (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Come on, this spread doesn’t make you laugh? I don’t care how anemic Pittsburgh’s offense is, OR that Tampa Bay is 2-0 (against terrible Cleveland and Carolina); no one actually believes Tampa Bay is going to win this game. Pittsburgh at anything under three points has to be considered a gift. And you know how I feel about Vegas giving away gifts. I’ll take Tampa Bay, some how some way, to come out on top over the scary Steelers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Tampa Bay

Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Two straight philosophy picks, how fun! First and foremost, Carolina lost as a favorite at home last week, and is a dog at home this week; this is one of my favorite spots, and it worked to perfection last week for the Jets. But that aside, Cincinnati coming off of an emotional tough win over a great opponent and Carolina coming off of getting embarrassed by a weak opponent + public perceptions (Cincinnati = good team, best offense yet to come, Carolina = terrible)… it all adds up to me going the road less traveled and taking Carolina.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina

Cleveland (+10.5) @ Baltimore (-10.5)
After an extremely frustrating loss to Cincinnati, Baltimore was going to beat just about anyone that came to town big this week. Cleveland? Couldn’t hand pick a much better punching bag.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Dallas (+2.5) @ Houston (-2.5)
Let it be known that I am a complete believer in Houston. Beating Indy and following that up with coming from 17-points down in the second half to beat Washington? This team is for real. But how, after all that, can this team possibly dig deep enough again to match the intensity of an 0-2 Dallas team absolutely desperate for a win? I do think Houston is the better team at this point in time, but Dallas will throw everything and the kitchen sink at Houston this week, and I don’t think the Texans can handle it a third straight week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

San Francisco (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
The surprise 0-2 team desperate for a win theme is strong in this edition of the Dime. San Francisco played well enough to win and ended up losing Monday night, while Kansas City played badly enough to lose but ended up winning Sunday. So it goes. I think this week, the results go the opposite way for both teams; but expect a fight from the Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Detroit (+11.5) @ Minnesota (-11.5)
I had Detroit circled here; I mean after all, they’ve been fighting good teams hard, and Minnesota’s offense has looked miserable. But that got me to thinking, this spread is really inviting you to take Detroit. I mean how can you lay 11.5 points with the way Minnesota is playing? Keep two things in mind; the desperation factor in Minnesota, but perhaps more importantly, Miami and New Orleans are very good. Detroit is not. It’s about time the Vikings put a good game together on offense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Buffalo (+14.5) @ New England (-14.5)
Jeez, I just love giving up double digit points this week! I’ve tried to rationalize taking Buffalo a dozen different ways, but I keep coming back to the same 38-10 type of score in my head. After an uncharacteristically bad game for Brady last week, much like Baltimore getting Cleveland, this is just a great punching bag to draw for the Pats.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Atlanta (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
The Saints haven’t quite been themselves on offense, and losing Reggie Bush won’t help matters. Atlanta is a great team, and the defense has looked great so far this year. But then I remind myself; they’ve played a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team, and a punch-less Cardinals team. They haven’t faced an offense like New Orleans yet, which is due for a big game. I’m not expecting a blowout, but I think the Saints will do enough to get the cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Washington (-3.5) @ St. Louis (+3.5)
St. Louis has suffered two heartbreaking losses in this young season, but they’ve shown a lot of fight in both. But let’s not forget, those were against Oakland and Arizona. Washington is a tier above those two teams, and coming off of a heartbreaking loss of their own, should be able to hand the Rams their first loss by more than four points this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Nothing more than a gut feeling on this one. With all of the Mike Vick hype and excitement, a lot of the Eagles’ flaws are being ignored. Jacksonville is no top team, but as they showed in week one against Denver, they can put a solid game together; and at only +3.0, I get the feeling bookmakers agree with me. I’ll take a shot on my hunch and take the Jags to upset the Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Oakland (+4.5) @ Arizona (-4.5)
Uncanny similarities between these two teams; both have already lost on the road in a blowout, benched their starting quarterback midway through a game, and barely edged out St. Louis. And amazingly, one of them will soon be 2-1. I think it’s going to be the Raiders. Under Bruce Gradkowski (who gets the start this week), the Raiders looked like a confident, capable team; Arizona hasn’t really looked confident or capable at any point this season, and Derek Anderson doesn’t appear to be the answer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

San Diego (-5.0) @ Seattle (+5.0)
San Diego is coming off of a blowout win, Seattle is coming off of a blowout loss. You know how I feel about situations like this. It also doesn’t hurt that Seattle showed they can play hard at home in week one and San Diego always starts the season off rocky. This strikes me as the type of game that early-season San Diego loses and Philip Rivers complains about.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Indianapolis (-5.5) @ Denver (+5.5)
Denver played a great game last week, but I’ve been saying from the get-go that this is not a good football team, and last week alone didn’t change my mind. I expect Indianapolis to have no trouble at all winning this game by double digits, even in the Mile-High City.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

NY Jets (+2.5) @ Miami (-2.5)
What a great game this should be! Going into Minnesota against a Vikings team that needed a win and shutting them down like that was no small feat. Miami’s defense has thoroughly impressed me, and I think it’s more than capable of handling the Jets offense. Even without Revis, the Jets defense will be fine, too; but while I was already leaning Miami, the extra edge of having Brandon Marshall off of Revis Island leaves me little choice but to go with the Fins at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

MONDAY

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Jay Cutler was fantastic last week, but he’s still Jay Cutler. Green Bay’s pass defense brings out the flaws in everyone, and I expect Cutler to be no exception. I’ll be looking for more than one interception from the Packers, and as much as I respect the Bears defense, I respect Aaron Rodgers even more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 7 – 11 – 0 (.389)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-4/

TCU -17.0 (PUSH)
Tulane +19.5
Stanford -4.5
UCLA +16.0
Southern Miss -3.5
Oregon State +18.0
Oregon -11.5
Wake Forest/Florida State OVER 62.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 2 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-3/
and my College Football Top 25 for Week 3 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-4/

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