2010 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 6

By , October 16, 2010

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Why even bother trying to make sense of the NFL anymore? Just pick the underdog every single game!

It really seems to be that simple. Over the last three weeks, underdogs are 29-15 ATS (.659) and 23-21 without the spread.

Aren’t underdogs supposed to be the teams that need the points? The little guys? The Davids vs. the Goliaths? (The Vegas Daves vs. the job market?)

Not this year. This year it is topsy-turvy land in the NFL. I guess I should be happy with two straight 7-7 weeks with how unpredictable this nonsense is.

Goliath, Job Market, NFL Football… bring it on.

Here goes nothing!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 7 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 5 – 9 – 0 (.357)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 34 – 38 – 4 (.472)
Without the spread: 37 – 39 – 0 (.487)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 3 – 5 – 0 (.375)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
St. Louis (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
Kansas City (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
Chicago (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
New Orleans (-7.0) @ Arizona (+7.0)
Tennessee (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)

THE BAD

Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Buffalo (-1.0)
Green Bay (-2.5) @ Washington (+2.5)
Denver (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)
NY Giants (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
San Diego (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
Minnesota (+4.0) @ NY Jets (-4.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Seattle (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
It is still early in the season, but I think we’ve seen enough of Chicago’s defense to realize that this team isn’t going to give up too many points very often. This week, they get Cutler back, and they are up against an offensively challenged team that has struggled on the road this season. This should be one favorite that can hold up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Miami (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
Tricky game, but I’ve talked myself into taking Miami here. Even if Aaron Rodgers does play as it appears he will, Miami has a solid passing defense, and has had a bye week to prepare for this game. They also can focus entirely on the pass, as Green Bay has no running game to speak of. But perhaps most importantly, Clay Mathews is out; without Mathews clogging up the middle, Miami should be able to run the football and control the tempo of this game… as long as special teams doesn’t shoot them in the foot again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

San Diego (-8.5) @ St. Louis (+8.5)
So with their 2-3 start out of the way, this is the week that San Diego just magically turns it on and gets better, right? We are supposed to ignore the fact that St. Louis has played well at home this year (including an upset over Washington), and that San Diego is 0-3 on the road against three teams they should have beaten (KC, Sea, Oak), correct? It might come back to haunt me, but I can’t ignore the first few weeks of the season, and San Diego hasn’t given us any reason to believe they will win this game by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Baltimore (+2.5) @ New England (-2.5)
Revenge is among the greatest motivators in all of sports. And while some of us (including myself, until I went back and refreshed my memory) may have forgotten the fact that Baltimore snapped a nine-game home winning streak dating back to 2008 in crushing New England 33-14 to knock them out of the playoffs last season, I can assure you that the Patriots have not. While I think Baltimore is the better team and think that New England has a lot of question marks, the Patriots have had two weeks to think about exacting their revenge; I say they do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^New England

New Orleans (-4.0) @ Tampa Bay (+4.0)
Remarkably, dating back to last season, New Orleans is 0-9-1 in their last 10 regular season games against the spread, including 0-4-1 this year. How can you possibly take them with any faith? This may look like an upset waiting to happen to some, but I think this is finally the week that New Orleans snaps out of it. Last week’s embarrassing loss to Arizona should be the wake up call the defending champs need; I don’t see them dropping two straight games to opponents they should beat.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+10.0) @ NY Giants (-10.0)
Both of these teams are riding high, coming off of big blowout wins last week. The Giants seem to be on the fast track back up the NFC’s power rankings, while Detroit is just happy to get a win. It is easy enough to see the Giants winning big here; they have, after all, won by double digits in their last two games against better opponents. But Detroit has fought hard all season, and now that the NFL is finally looking like a league where anything can happen on any given Sunday again, I’m happy to take this many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Atlanta (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
Atlanta is currently the best team in the NFC, in my opinion. I expected big things from them this year, and so far, they’ve delivered. Going into Philadelphia will be no easy task, especially when you consider how good Kevin Kolb looked last week against San Francisco. But this has been one of the league’s only consistently strong teams, so I’ll take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Pittsburgh (-13.5)
Lots going against Cleveland this week, especially at the quarterback position. Ben Roethlisberger returns to give Pittsburgh’s offense a serious boost, while rookie Colt McCoy gets his first ever start in one of the toughest spots you could possibly start a kid. But I’m still taking the points on Cleveland; this is a division rivalry game, and while these huge spreads were getting covered left and right last year, they simply aren’t this year. It helps my decision that Cleveland hasn’t lost a game by more than 10 points this season, including a tough one at Baltimore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Kansas City (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Coming off of a huge blowout loss at home, I expect the Texans to find a way to claw out a victory this week to avoid a second straight home loss. But Kansas City has officially made a believer out of me. I don’t know how long this level of play will last, but they looked like they belonged on the field against the Colts last week, and have shown they can slow down dangerous passing games. Houston’s defense is shaky, too; I expect Kansas City to keep this one close right to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Oakland (+6.5) @ San Francisco (-6.5)
Outright upset pick here. Go ahead, call me a “homer” rooting for the Raiders; but really, if you read the Dime, you know I never hesitate to pick against my team. But why should I in this spot? Oakland’s win over San Diego should go a long way in snapping this team’s losing culture, and they are a still-can’t-believe-it-missed FG over Arizona away from being 3-2 right now. San Francisco is playing with zero confidence right now, and Alex Smith has regressed. He isn’t a guy that can win you a game in the 4th quarter; he’s had multiple chances to do so this season. I think San Francisco remains snake-bitten this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

NY Jets (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
(Here’s a simple recipe, Dave: when the team you believe is the best in the NFL is going against an inferior opponent, stop talking yourself out of it, and just pick them.) But what about the fact that they are coming off of a hard-fought Monday Night Football win, and Denver is coming off of a big loss, and there’s travel fatigue, and… (STOP TALKING YOURSELF OUT OF IT AND JUST PICK THEM!) Okay, voice inside my head, I think I’ll do just that this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Dallas (+1.5) @ Minnesota (-1.5)
In this battle of NFC titans, two undefeated teams take the field… oh, wait, sorry. I was looking at my preseason notes. What the hell happened to these two teams? Amazingly enough, one of them is actually going to pick up a win this week. I honestly have nothing insightful to say here, I can’t figure out either of these teams. I think Dallas is slightly better, but have they shown it? When in doubt, my rule is to go with the home team, so Minnesota it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
This should be a really interesting game. Washington has done enough to make me believe that they are legit, even with that awful game in St. Louis. But am I ready to pick them over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts as only three point underdogs? I don’t think so. For now, I’m sticking with the division rival excuse for Indianapolis’s two road losses this season; but another one here, and I might have to stop giving this team the benefit of the doubt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Tennessee (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Jacksonville was supposed to be the odd team out in the AFC South; instead, they are now playing a Monday Night Football game in Week 6 with a share of first place on the line. While I can definitely respect what Jacksonville has done to this point, I don’t like their chances against a very good Tennessee team. Let’s not forget, before Jacksonville stunned the nation and beat Indianapolis and then beat Buffalo last week, they had lost two straight games by 25 points. This defense still has a lot of issues, and I think Tennessee’s defense can handle Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars offense. And speaking of the Titans’ defense, if you need a drinking game for Monday Night, drink every time Jon Gruden says Tennessee has a “no-name defense”. Expect to be plastered by halftime.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 19 – 20 – 0 (.487)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-7/

Florida State -21.5
Maryland +14.0
Iowa -3.0
Utah -20.5
Iowa State +22.5
Boise State/San Jose State Over 56

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 6 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-6/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 7 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-7/
and my MLB NLCS and ALCS Predictions Here: http://www.davesdime.com/mlb-championship-series-predictions/

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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