Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Philosophy Picks, which hit in the 60-70% range every year, are hitting 41.7%.

Despite that, I somehow have a winning record.

The Oakland Raiders scored 59 points in one game.

In other words… what the hell is going on?

It’s just been that kind of year. Much like the classic “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”, this season has basically become “Vegas Dave or: How I Learned to Stop Handicapping and Love the Madness”.

Speaking of Madness, being the forward thinker that I am, I’ve been trying to decide how to turn this whole Halloween Trick-or-Treat thing into a way to spread a message.

At first, I was thinking of wrapping the candy I hand out in DavesDime.com business cards; but then I remembered that I’m not really interested in the elementary school demographic. Then, I was thinking of giving the kids some worldly advice that no one ever told me, like “don’t take middle school seriously, colleges don’t care, have fun and then get serious in high school”; but then I remembered my girlfriend is a middle school teacher and that might end up making her life more difficult (and in turn getting me in trouble).

So, looks like the kids will just have to settle for boring message-less candy. Oh well. At least us adults get some awesome football games this weekend.

Happy Halloween everyone!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
Without the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 51 – 48 – 5 (.515)
Without the spread: 55 – 49 – 0 (.529)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 5 – 7 – 0 (.417)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
San Francisco (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Jacksonville (+9.0) @ Kansas City (-9.0)
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
Cleveland (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Oakland (+8.0) @ Denver (-8.0)
Minnesota (+2.5) @ Green Bay (-2.5)
NY Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)

THE BAD

Washington (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
St. Louis (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Buffalo (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Arizona (+6.5) @ Seattle (-6.5)
New England (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SUNDAY

Miami (+1.0) @ Cincinnati (-1.0)
One of the many games this week I am going against conventional wisdom on. Cincinnati opened as a three point favorite this week, which was pretty surprising to me considering their slew of defensive injuries as well as the fact that they were coming off of an ugly loss and Miami came within a blown call of beating Pittsburgh. Bettors have understandably jumped all over Miami, but I think I’m with the bookmakers on this one; even though this looks like a game that may be Miami’s for the taking, the under-performing Bengals are due for a complete game, and I think they find a way to put one together this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ Dallas (-6.5)
Dallas has been awful, and they just lost Tony Romo for most of the rest of the season as well. But Kitna looked good in relief last week, and as bad as Dallas has been, a glance at their schedule shows that ever team they’ve played this year has been a playoff contender. This is the first game they’ve had against a team they really have no reason to lose to; at home, with everything that has happened this season, this is an opportunity they can’t afford to miss on, even if only for pride.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Washington (+2.5) @ Detroit (-2.5)
I’ve been missing a lot on these this year, but I’m not going to stop. When a 4-3 team that is very much a playoff contender and is coming off of a road win plays against a 1-5 team, the playoff contender should be the favorite, regardless of where the game is played. And the fact that it opened at Detroit -1.0 and moved to Detroit -2.5 despite most action coming in on Washington? Vegas can’t keep losing money on games like this by giving away teams like Washington, can they? They must know something… I’ll take Detroit.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Detroit

Buffalo (+7.5) @ Kansas City (-7.5)
Call me crazy, but I’m taking Buffalo to win this game outright. We know that Buffalo has a downright awful defense; but they also have a surprisingly capable offense that has kept them in a lot of games, including an overtime game last week at Baltimore. Kansas City’s pass defense is exploitable. I think this game will be a good old fashioned shootout, and it just might end up getting away from the Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Carolina (+3.0) @ St. Louis (-3.0)
Great, Carolina won a game last week. Against a really bad San Francisco 49ers team that has found ways to lose all season long. At home, St. Louis should be able to handle Carolina, who still have the most anemic offense in the league.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Green Bay (+6.0) @ NY Jets (-6.0)
I’ve been trying to make a case for Green Bay in my head, as even with their injuries, six points seems like a lot to get on a team of their caliber. But let’s look at the facts; Green Bay has no running game to speak of without Ryan Grant, and New York’s passing defense is among the best in the league, and will be even better with a healthy Darrelle Revis. Rex Ryan has had an extra week off to prepare for a one-dimensional offense. At home, I think the Jets win this one fairly comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Denver (+2.0) @ San Francisco (-2.0)
Poor Europe. What an awful game to get, and with two teams coming off of pathetic performances, too. With no home field to factor in and disappointing seasons in common, all I can really do is take the team that I believe to be better in this spot; and that is Denver. They are better than what they showed last week, and I also think the embarrassment suffered in their game outweighs the embarrassment suffered by San Francisco in losing to Carolina, which should add a little extra fire to their side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Tennessee (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
Last week I got burned by both of these teams on philosophy picks, as I picked for San Diego and against Tennessee. Once again, I’m picking for and against these teams for virtually the same reasons. Tennessee has now scored 30+ points in three straight games, which is extremely difficult to do in the NFL, and should lead to an offensive letdown. Also, and more importantly, why the hell is San Diego favored here, and by more than three points? Tennessee has won three straight and is 5-2, while San Diego has lost three straight and is 2-5. Tennessee +3.5 looks like a total gift, doesn’t it? Once again, I’m forced to select the frustrating Chargers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^San Diego

Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Arizona’s offense is abysmal, but this team has played very well at home this season, especially on defense. I’m still not sold on Tampa Bay despite their surprising 4-2 record, and I believe the Cardinals will find a way to make enough plays on defense to come out on top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Minnesota (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
Will Favre play, or won’t he? Personally, I’m hoping he doesn’t, considering he is more of a hindrance than a help. Lost in all of the Brett Favre hype is that Minnesota has a great defense, and if not for his untimely interceptions, they’d likely have won last week against Green Bay. New England’s defense still has some major holes, and I believe that with or without Favre, Minnesota can at least keep this game close, even if they likely end up falling just short again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Seattle (+2.5) @ Oakland (-2.5)
I don’t think anyone knows what to expect from this game. As much as it pains me to do so, I’m picking against the Raiders in this spot. It is hard for any team in the NFL to follow up a performance like the one they had last week against Denver (59 points), and Oakland has already shown they aren’t above the letdown game, dropping an ugly one to San Francisco coming off of the big win over San Diego. Seattle’s special teams and rushing defense have led them to a fairly successful season to this point, and while I’m hoping I’m wrong, I believe they may catch the Raiders in a letdown spot this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ New Orleans (-1.0)
The last of the “gotta go the other way on a crazy spread” games, this week you’ve got what many believe to be the best team in the league in Pittsburgh facing a New Orleans team that has struggled this season that just lost to an awful Cleveland team that Pittsburgh beat handily the week before, and yet Pittsburgh is the underdog? Spread is begging you to take the Steelers. I’d also point out from a Philosophy perspective that losing at home in the biggest upset of the year is really great motivation to not blow it again at home the following week, this time on national television. New Orleans will need their best effort of the season to pull this off; I’ll say they get it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^New Orleans

MONDAY

Houston (+5.5) @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
Indianapolis will obviously come out hungry in this one and looking for revenge for their loss to open the season at the hands of Houston. That said, I have to side with Houston for 5.5 points; these two teams always play each other tough, and with Indianapolis’s injuries and Houston’s improvements this season, I think the talent gap is as small as it has ever been between these two. Indy likely picks up the win, but I expect it to be close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 27 – 1 (.481)

Week 9 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-picks-week-9/

Clemson -7.0
Minnesota +25.5
UNLV +35.0
SMU/Tulane Over 53.5
Toledo/Eastern Michigan Over 56.5
Stanford/Washington Over 63.0

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

For more…
Check out my NFL Power Rankings for Week 8 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-nfl-power-rankings-week-8/
My College Football Top 25 for Week 9 Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2010-college-football-top-25-week-9/

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