Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So last week, hangover and all, I picked my way to an 11-5 ATS and 13-3 straight up day. Not too shabby at all.

Sadly, it didn’t end up preventing me from having my worst season ever.

For regular readers of the Dime, it isn’t rocket science as to where the problem was this season; my Philosophy Picks. I’ve ALWAYS sucked overall; that hasn’t changed. But hitting over 60% with my Philosophy Picks has bailed me out every year. This year, for the first time ever, I had a losing record with those. It was bound to happen sooner or later… hopefully next year proves this to be a fluke and not a pattern.

Yes, there will be a next year. I’m like Brett Favre, making a total ass of myself year in and year out and I just keep coming back for more. Except he’s a multi-millionaire and a hall-of-famer.

I’m a multi-hundredaire, and listen to Hall & Oates. Big difference.

But enough complaining about how much I sucked this year… on to complaining about something else (you didn’t think you were getting off that easy, did you?)

I’ve already told this story a million times. I think I may have even told it in the Dime already, I wouldn’t be surprised. But before the season started, I was in Las Vegas, and I told my girlfriend (who has sadly heard this story more than any other human being on earth, with my best friend and brother tied for second) that New England to win the Super Bowl at 12 to 1 and Atlanta to win it at 16 to 1 looked like really good bets.

Then I didn’t bet them.

So now as they rest up at home and prepare for their championship runs (especially New England), all I can do is grumble about how I “shoulda coulda woulda”.

In my most recent trip to Vegas, I took stabs on Indianapolis (18/1), New York Jets (15/1), and Baltimore (12/1) to make me super happy and upset New England.

But I’m not holding my breath.

Anyway, on to this weekend’s playoff action!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 122 – 128 – 6 (.488)
Without the spread: 150 – 106 – 0 (.586)
^^Philosophy Picks^^: 17 – 20 – 0 (.459)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Minnesota (+3.5) @ Detroit (-3.5)
Oakland (+4.0) @ Kansas City (-4.0)
Buffalo @ NY Jets (Pick’em)
Cincinnati (+10.0) @ Baltimore (-10.0)
Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Houston (-4.0)
NY Giants (-4.5) @ Washington (+4.5)
Arizona (+6.0) @ San Francisco (-6.0)
Chicago (+10.5) @ Green Bay (-10.5)
Tennessee (+9.5) @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
St. Louis (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)

THE BAD

Carolina (+14.5) @ Atlanta (-14.5)
Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Cleveland (+6.5)
Miami (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Dallas @ Philadelphia (Pick’em)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

For those of you that don’t know what the OVER/UNDER is, bookmakers decide a number that they think will be close to the two team’s scores added together. If the bookmakers think the game will have a final score of 23 – 20, they will set the OVER/UNDER total at around 43. It is the bettor’s job to predict whether the actual score will be OVER or UNDER the projected total.

SATURDAY

#5 New Orleans Saints (-10.0) @ #4 Seattle Seahawks (+10.0)
It’s true; Seattle has no business anywhere near a playoff spot. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games (all by 15+ points). In all likelihood, they’ll get blown to hell in this one. But getting 10 points at home, I’ve sadly talked myself into taking them against the spread. Seattle has an excellent home field advantage, and they also have one great thing going for them; not a person in the world is giving them any real chance in this one. Very rarely does a team have the freedom of playing with no pressure at all in the playoffs, and it is even rarer for that type of team to be at home. New Orleans, while far superior, has a ton of pressure; not only are they the defending Super Bowl champs, but they get this extremely easy game that everyone is expecting them to win… which they have to travel across the country to play. I can’t imagine Seattle putting together a complete 60 minute effort and actually beating New Orleans, but I think they’ll stick around long enough to keep the score closer than many figure it will be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
OVER/UNDER 44: Over

#6 New York Jets (+2.5) @ #3 Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
This may surprise some people, but I’m going with the Jets in this one. I think everyone has written off the Jets after their late-season slump, and everyone is back on board with Peyton Manning and the Colts. But amidst all of the negative press, the Jets managed to finish right near the top of the league in defense, and score 30+ points in two straight weeks entering the playoffs. Sure, Indianapolis played great down the stretch in winning four straight to make the playoffs, but they didn’t really look dominant in doing so. I could see this Colts team catching fire and making another Super Bowl run; but I can also see them dropping to an underrated Jets club, and that’s the way I’m leaning. New York doesn’t mind playing the underdog role or on the road, and this might be the week that Rex Ryan finally figures out Peyton Manning and the Jets earn their revenge for last year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets
OVER/UNDER 44.5: Over

SUNDAY

#5 Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) @ #4 Kansas City Chiefs (+3.0)
Kansas City did a great job this season making the playoffs, winning consistently down the stretch to hold off San Diego’s surge. But I believe that Baltimore could be the best team in the NFL if they put it all together, and they finished up the season 12-4 despite the fact that we haven’t seen them at their best yet. What better time than the playoffs for this veteran team to take the next step? Kansas City hasn’t shown that they can beat an elite-level team yet, while the Ravens have already beaten many of the league’s best. This one should be a good game, but Baltimore should come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 40.5: Under

#6 Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ #3 Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
I know, I know, it is the Mike Vick Experience and it can’t be stopped. Well sure, it was stopped by the Vikings, but that was in terrible weather. It won’t be stopped again, will it? Call me crazy, but I’m thinking yes. Most of the media hype surrounding this game focuses on the amazing quarterback dual between two of the game’s best in Vick and Aaron Rodgers, but I think the real dual is Vick vs. Clay Matthews. Chicago beat Philadelphia a few weeks back with a strong passing game and great linebacker play containing Mike Vick… and I think the Packers are built to beat them the same way. I expect this game to be a defensive battle as opposed to the offensive battle many are expecting, and the Packers to make a few more big plays on defense to pick up the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay
OVER/UNDER 46: Under

And I’m taking all four road teams to win… wonderful.

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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