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By Dave Consolazio, January 22, 2010 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Bad News: My most embarrassing and humiliating season to date continued with yet another hopeless week of lousy picks last week.

Good news: Only three games left, and then I can put the 2009 season behind me for good.

Alas, the other good news, from a fan’s perspective, is that I actually like the four teams remaining. Should be an enjoyable Super Bowl no matter how the cards fall, at least for me. Hope you guys still have some rooting interests left, or at least have had better success with your picks this postseason than I have (couldn’t be much worse!)

Good luck this week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)
OVER/UNDER: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Playoffs
With the spread: 2 – 6 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 3 – 5 – 0 (.375)
OVER/UNDER: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

SUNDAY

#5 New York Jets (+8.0) @ #1 Indianapolis Colts (-8.0)
The Jets continue to get no respect from the public; or, perhaps it is just the Colts getting a ton of respect after last week’s convincing win over the Ravens. Peyton played fine last week against a stingy defensive team, but the real story was the Colts defense that held the Ravens to only 3 points. The Jets aren’t exactly blowing the world away with their offensive prowess, and it stands to reason that the Colts D could make things difficult for Mark Sanchez and the running game.

While I could see the Colts winning this one big, the Jets proved last week that they can hang with anyone at this point. They are playing inspired football, and the defense has in my opinion earned enough respect to warrant a shot at +8.0 in an AFC Championship Game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 40: Under

#2 Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) @ #1 New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
The Saints looked fantastic last week in dismantling the Arizona Cardinals, as did the Vikings in blowing out the Dallas Cowboys. I was more impressed with the Vikings’ effort, as they not only beat a red-hot Cowboys defense, but dismantled it. The Saints meanwhile played a Cardinal team that clearly forgot how to play defense in Wild Card week against the Packers.

Many signs point to a Saints win here; the team had a fantastic regular season, looked to be in top form last week, and the fans have waited a long time for this and should create an electric atmosphere. But for whatever reason, the Vikings made enough of a believer out of me last week to get me to thinking that an upset might be in the cards. Rarely do the playoffs go exactly as scripted (with both one seeds facing off in the Super Bowl), and this game just feels ripe for an upset to me. If you like trends, it doesn’t hurt that the Vikings are 7-1 the last eight times these teams have met, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
OVER/UNDER 53.5: Under

Good Luck!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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By Dave Consolazio, January 15, 2010 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

After my worst regular season ever, I guess it isn’t too shocking that I should start off the playoffs doing poorly, too. Lucky for me, Arizona managed to spare me the ultimate embarrassment (0-4)… for now, anyway.

This week’s spreads are much more lopsided, and the matchups are plenty interesting. And I will be in LAS VEGAS to enjoy them, bringing in my kid brother’s 21st birthday in style.

Speaking of which, I leave in less then five hours, and I haven’t started packing yet. Hmm. I should probably get this thing sent out, shouldn’t I?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
OVER/UNDER: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Playoffs
With the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
OVER/UNDER: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

SATURDAY

#4 Arizona Cardinals (+7.0) @ #1 New Orleans Saints (-7.0)
SHOOTOUT! SHOOTOUT! At least, that’s the most obvious way this game will go after what we saw from Arizona last week.

Lost in the fireworks though were two important points; one, so much for the stout Arizona defense that showed up in the playoffs last year. Two, I wasn’t thrilled with Arizona’s mental toughness; 31-10 at home, the game should have been completely over; to let Green Bay back into it was inexcusable, and doesn’t bode well heading into a game on the road against an excellent come-from-behind team in the New Orleans Saints. It may be another shootout, but I’m expecting there to be a few more shots coming out of the Saints’ guns, and they’ve waited too long for this to come out flat.

I could see this one going over 57, but I’m simply not going near a number like that in an NFL playoff game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
OVER/UNDER 57: Under

#6 Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) @ #1 Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
It feels like Baltimore always plays the Colts tough, but in actuality, the Colts have won the last seven meetings between the two teams, and four of those seven wins came by double digits. The other three games were by six points or less though, including their last regular season game (a two-point Indy win) and their last playoff meeting (a six-point Indy win).

There should be little doubt in anyone’s head that Indy is a better team than New England this season. That said, I can’t write off Baltimore’s performance last week completely; they showed for the first time this season that they can win the big game, and I think that will give them the momentum to at least keep this one within a touchdown, even if Indy eventually prevails.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 44: Under

SUNDAY

#3 Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ #2 Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Despite a meaningless drubbing of the New York Giants in Week 17, the Vikings enter this game without much momentum, having fizzled late in the season and leaving plenty of questionmarks about Brett Favre. Dallas, meanwhile, is red-hot and playing some excellent defense, and I can’t help but believe they can keep it up against the Vikings.

I’m expecting strong efforts from both defenses, so it will really come down to which offense can make the plays; and I’ll take the hot and confident Cowboys who are riding a four-game winning streak over the Vikings who have lost three of their last five.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas
OVER/UNDER 45.5: Under

#5 New York Jets (+7.0) @ #2 San Diego Chargers (-7.0)
I really want the Jets to win this game; I hate the Chargers, and I love what the Jets are doing, playing great defense and running the football. Mark Sanchez did an amazing job running the offense last week, too.

But as I look closly at this game, I really don’t see the Jets coming out on top. I’m not sure Sanchez will be able to play as well as he did last week, but more importantly, I think this San Diego offense and passing game are just to versatile for the Jets to stop. Revis will shut down his man, but will it matter? They have too many weapons, including Antonio Gates, who will be extremely tough to stop.

The Jets will build on their win over the Bengals moving forward, but I don’t see them ending the Chargers’ 11-game winning streak; and in fact, I could see it getting ugly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
OVER/UNDER 42.5: Over

Good Luck!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, January 8, 2010 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Alas, it is official; I have had my first under-.500 season since starting the Dime back in 2005.

I guess it was bound to happen sooner or later.

But enough about me, something much more important is going on; the PLAYOFFS. As insane of a regular season as it has been, we should be in for some equally crazy antics in the playoffs.

Next weekend I will be in Las Vegas, which should be a blast. As for this weekend, I’ll be bringing in my 24th birthday in style (even if it is technically on Monday, but who wants to party on Monday?)

Let’s see if we can get the playoffs off on the right foot with a couple of winners this weekend. We have a bizarre situation in which we are seeing three rematches of games played last week, and all three were blowouts. Should we be ignoring those, or using them to help us this week? Interesting stuff.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

Playoffs
With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
OVER/UNDER: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Jacksonville (+2.0) @ Cleveland (-2.0)
Atlanta (-1.0) @ Tampa Bay (+1.0)
Indianapolis (+8.0) @ Buffalo (-8.0)
New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0)
Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Kansas City (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
Tennessee (-6.0) @ Seattle (+6.0)
Baltimore (-10.5) @ Oakland (+10.5)

THE BAD

Chicago (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
New England (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0) TIE
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
San Francisco (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)
N.Y. Giants (+8.0) @ Minnesota (-8.0)
Green Bay (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Washington (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0) TIE
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

For those of you that don’t know what the OVER/UNDER is, bookmakers decide a number that they think will be close to the two team’s scores added together. If the bookmakers think the game will have a final score of 23 – 20, they will set the OVER/UNDER total at around 43. It is the bettor’s job to predict whether the actual score will be OVER or UNDER the projected total.

SATURDAY

#5 New York Jets (+2.5) @ #4 Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Plenty of fuss has been made over the fact that the Jets were gift-wrapped their berth into the playoffs with both the Colts and Bengals mailing in their games with playoff spots already locked up, but make no mistake about it, the Jets deserve to be here. Their defense is one of the best in the game, and as the Pittsburghs of the world have shown us, defense wins championships. That said, the Bengals have a strong defense too; and it gets underrated due to their reputation as an offensive team. I believe Marvin Lewis when he said that the Bengals didn’t show the Jets anything last week; that includes defensive schemes. And while this should be a great learning experience for Mark Sanchez, I’m not sure that I trust him to go into a hostile environment in the playoffs and play a mistake free game just yet. I say the Bengals take it.

While I do expect this to be a defensive battle, when an over/under is under 35, I pretty much play the over by default. All it takes is a few bounces and a big play or two to get that total over.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
OVER/UNDER 33.5: OVER

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (+4.0) @ #3 Dallas Cowboys (-4.0)
Is this the year the Cowboys FINALLY win a playoff game for the first time in over a decade? Last week’s game between these two teams obviously had a lot on the line for both teams, and the Cowboys’ defense shut down the Eagles, earning their second straight shutout against a division rival (shutting out Washington the week before). This defense is playing so lights out that it should take a lot of pressure off of Romo.

I’m a sucker for history sometimes though, and the Eagles have been one of the most consistantly strong playoff teams in the NFC for the last 10 years or so, while the Cowboys have consistantly found ways to choke away games. More important/relevant than that though, it is EXTREMELY difficult to beat an NFL team three times in one season, which is what the Cowboys will be setting out to do this week. I see them falling short again this year, but even if they don’t, four points is a gift in this spot, as it should be a great game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 45: UNDER

SUNDAY

#6 Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) @ #3 New England Patriots (-3.0)
There are a few things that stick out to me in this game. One is the obvious redemption factor for New England; after missing the playoffs despite an excellent record last year, this will be the team’s (and Tom Brady’s, specifically) first chance in the playoffs since their undefeated season fell apart in the Super Bowl game against the Giants. Not saying Baltimore won’t be extremely hungry, but New England has a HUGE chip on their shoulder, especially at home.

Secondly, who has Baltimore beaten this year? Of their nine wins, only two came against teams over .500; an overtime win against Pittsburgh in week 12, the third loss of the Steelers’ five-game losing streak that also saw losses to KC, Cle, and Oak; and a close win over San Diego in week two, who were doing their annual stumble-out-of-the-gate routine to start the season. Over half of this team’s wins have come against opponents with 5 wins or less (KC, Cle x2, Det, Oak).

Is Baltimore a good team, yes. Have they proven, this season, that they have what it takes to go into New England and beat this millenium’s best playoff team on the road? Personally, I don’t think so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 43: OVER

#5 Green Bay Packers @ #4 Arizona Cardinals (Pick’em)
Ask any of my friends who listen to me ramble, and they’ll tell you for the last month or so, I’ve made it no secret that Green Bay is my sleeper pick to go all the way. They’ve got a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and they have been steamrolling through their competition for most of the season. An easy blowout win last week should make this pick even easier.

Unfortunately, I remember too vividly how flat-out dominant the Cardinals became seemingly overnight in the playoffs last season. The offense was never in question, but the defense was electric. I thought the Eagles would have no problem beating the Cards, and I was proven quite wrong.

Will it be a different story this year? Maybe. And if the Packers win this one, I’m not so sure I’ll be picking against them again in these playoffs. But this week I have to go with the Cardinals, who are interestingly enough the only team that bettors seem comfortable betting hard against this week, as about 75% of the action in this game is on the Packers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona
OVER/UNDER 48: UNDER

Good Luck! Looks like I’m going the other way on all three rematches this week.
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, January 2, 2010 10:00 am

(Unfortunately, I lost the original, and no longer have the Intro. Will update if I find a copy. I still have the game write-ups though, here they are)

SATURDAY

#5 Atlanta Falcons 11- 5 (-2.0) @ #4 Arizona Cardinals 9 – 7 (+2.0)
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Neither defense matches up particularly well. Atlanta should be able to establish the run and open up the passing game as they have all year long, while Kurt Warner and the best wide receiving core in the league should be able to pass well against Atlanta’s 22nd ranked passing defense. Due to the potential shoot-out nature of this game, I think Arizona is the likeliest “upset” this week. That being said, I have to take Atlanta here; they are the more physical team, they have the momentum, and what has Arizona really proven? 6 of their 9 wins were against lowly division opponents, making them 3 – 7 out of division. They just haven’t shown me enough to lead me to believe that they can beat a tough team like Atlanta in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta
OVER/UNDER 51: Over

#5 Indianapolis Colts 12 – 4 @ #4 San Diego Chargers 8 – 8 (Pick’em)
On paper, the Colts match up very well against the Chargers. They have the league’s 5th best passing attack VS. the Chargers’ 31st ranked passing defense. The Chargers haven’t been able to get pressure on teams this year either, which is usually the only way you can beat Peyton Manning. The Colts also defend against the pass well, Tony Dungy is a superior coach to Norv Turner, and they’ve also won 9 straight games. The Chargers at 8 – 8 have lost the close games all year while the Colts have won them, showing me that the Colts have a little more fight in them. Needless to say, it won’t be as easy on the field as it is on paper, especially in San Diego; but I still believe very strongly that the Colts are the right side in this game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 51: Under

SUNDAY

#6 Baltimore Ravens 11 – 5 (-3.5) @ #3 Miami Dolphins 11 – 5 (+3.5)
You all know the age old adage; defense wins championships. And with a few exceptions here or there, this adage rings true. The Baltimore Ravens are built like a championship team; they have the league’s 3rd best passing defense and the 2nd best rushing defense. They also run the ball often and run the ball well. The Dolphins have had an incredible season, and if anything is going to score on the Ravens it would be the creative Wildcat offense; but I think the Ravens defense is just too tough. The Ravens have already beaten Miami in Miami this year 27 – 13, and I expect a similar result this time around. I actually see it being even more low scoring, and while I wouldn’t recommend betting the under on such a low number, if I must pick a side I do believe this game will stay under 38 and finish in the 20 – 10 ballpark.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 38: Under

#6 Philadelphia Eagles 9 – 6 – 1 (-3.0) @ #3 Minnesota Vikings 10 – 6 (+3.0)
Thanks to the Oakland Raiders upsetting Tampa Bay as a 13 point underdog, the Eagles playoff hopes were alive heading into their game against Dallas; and they certainly made the most of it. While the Eagles are known for their offense led by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, they have quietly put together an excellent season on defense. 4th best in the league against the run, 3rd best in the league against the pass, and 3rd best in the league in sacks (matches up very favorably against the Vikes, who are 26th in the league in sacks against). Like I said with Baltimore, defense wins championships. And while the Eagles may not have the high profile defense the Ravens or Steelers or Titans do, they are right up there in the top 5 with them. Having seasoned veteran Donovan McNabb against unproven young Tavaris Jackson doesn’t hurt, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
OVER/UNDER 42: Under

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By Dave Consolazio, January 1, 2010 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough

Hey everyone,

Sorry for the lack of the usual structure; after a very late evening of bowling and then drinking with four of my absolute favorite people in the world and about a week’s worth of sleep deprivation, it is all I can do to just get my opinions out in writing. Will re-send later with the records and all that good stuff, but for now, here are the games and my take. Good Luck and Happy New Year!

Chicago (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
For the last few weeks of the season, I play almost any home dog in a division rivalry game. When the spread is inexplicably low and 80+% of the public is on the “obvious” side, I play it happily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Detroit

New England (+7.0) @ Houston (-7.0)
With not much to gain or lose this week, resting up for the playoffs makes sense for the Patriots in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Jacksonville (+2.0) @ Cleveland (-2.0)
The Browns are ending the season on quite a hot streak; might as well finish it up with one more nice win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Atlanta (-1.0) @ Tampa Bay (+1.0)
True, I love to play division rival home dogs, but I believe this spread is way off due to Tampa Bay’s two straight wins including the upset win over New Orleans last week. I think Atlanta picks up the win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
Pittsburgh has picked up the pace in a few close wins over the last few weeks, but hitting the road, I think they come up short against a solid Dolphins team that is looking to follow up last week’s poor effort with a much better one this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

San Francisco (-8.0) @ St. Louis (+8.0)
Division rival home dog, and man do I hate it. St. Louis keeps letting me down, but I have to trust my philosophy picks when I come across them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Indianapolis (+8.0) @ Buffalo (-8.0)
I’m pretty sure you don’t follow up forfeiting your undefeated season with a strong effort in Buffalo; should be all backups for Indy this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

New Orleans (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0)
Carolina has been red hot, and New Orleans will be resting Brees with the NFC wrapped up; seems simple enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

N.Y. Giants (+8.0) @ Minnesota (-8.0)
The Vikings have not played well enough to warrant giving up 8 points to an angry team that just missed the playoffs. Minnesota will be playing for the bye they have let slip away, but I still expect it to be close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
In what should be a great game in the battle for the NFC East, I’ll take Dallas; they’ve got home field, and the defense has been lights out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Green Bay (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Arizona has more to play for (could concievably end up with a first round bye) and they’ve got home field, too, so I’ll take them in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Kansas City (+10.0) @ Denver (-10.0)
While I do think Denver will win this one, we saw what happened when the Raiders headed into Denver a few weeks ago; when bad teams with nothing to lose, especially division rivals, get the chance to play spoiler, they often do a good job at least making it more interesting than it should be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Tennessee (-6.0) @ Seattle (+6.0)
Tennessee has made it clear what they are going to do; run, run, and run some more to try and get Chris Johnson to rush for 2000 yards and beyond. Something tells me Seattle stacks the box hard a finds a way to win their last game at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Washington (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
I think San Diego cares more about trying to win the Super Bowl than their season and December winning streaks. With the #2 seed locked up, resting everyone is the wise move here, while the Redskins players are all fightin for jobs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Baltimore (-10.5) @ Oakland (+10,5)
Oakland seems to relish in the role of spoiler against tough teams, and you know how I feel about teams with nothing to lose late in the season. Baltimore should find a way to win, but I expect it to be ugly, not easy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cincinnati (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)
Even with the Bengals likely conceding the game, I don’t expect the Jets to go crazy on offense; it just isn’t their style. I’ll take the 9.5 points and look for the backups to help me out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets