Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So Green Bay screwed up my perfect record in the playoffs, but 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread is nothing to cry about.

I’ve already locked up a winning record for the playoffs! Therefore, I don’t really need to pick these last three games of the year. So what should we talk about instead?

Maybe favorite stationery product? I strongly recommend the Pilot Precise V5 for anyone looking for an excellent fine point ball pen that never leaks.

Favorite bookstore? There’s this place called Piccolo’s Books here in Los Angeles that has thousands of used books for just $2 each. Awesome savings!

Favorite fast food restaurant? Well, I don’t eat standard fast food anymore, but I quite frequently eat at Chipotle and Subway. Chipotle Burrito Bol (no tortilla) = delicious, healthy.

What’s that? You still want me to pick the other games? This is a football newsletter and not an infomercial?

Fine. You guys are no fun.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 3 – 1 (.750)
Over/Under: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)

Playoffs
With the spread: 6 – 2 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 7 – 1 (.875)
Over/Under: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 124 – 122 – 10 (.504)
Without the spread: 160 – 96 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 22 – 22 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

#3 New Orleans (-3.5) @ #2 San Francisco (+3.5)
#4 Denver (+13.5) @ #1 New England (-13.5)
#3 Houston (+7.5) @ #2 Baltimore (-7.5)

THE BAD

#4 NY Giants (+7.5) @ #1 Green Bay (-7.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

#2 Baltimore (+7.0) @ #1 New England (-7.0)
If going on recent form, you’d have to go with New England; the Patriots have won nine straight games and are coming off of a dominant performance against the Broncos while the Ravens have gone seven straight games without scoring more than 24 points and looked shaky on offense against Houston. That said, look at these team’s opponents last week; New England was playing against a pretender that lost four of its last five games of the season and gave up 40+ points in three of those losses, while Baltimore was playing a team with a Top 5 defense in the NFL. Therefore, I think this spread is a bit of an overreaction to last week’s action. Both of these teams are hungry for a return to the Super Bowl after years of postseason letdowns, so that’s a wash. Two reasons I have to take Baltimore here; 1. I always go with the elite defense over the elite offense, and 2. In a void, I think the Baltimore Ravens are the better team. I think the advantage of Baltimore’s offense over New England’s defense trumps the advantage of New England’s offense over Baltimore’s defense. Sadly for me, this game isn’t in a void; it is in New England, and Baltimore has struggled on the road this season. I could see New England running away with this one if the Ravens get rattled early, but I’m thinking it is much more likely that the Ravens keep it close all game long; and I’ll go the extra mile and say that they’ll win, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 50: Over (27-24 Baltimore)

#4 NY Giants (+2.5) @ #2 San Francisco (-2.5)
This one should be a heck of a game. San Francisco is 8-1 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread at home this season, but considering New York just went into Green Bay (where the Packers were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS) and dominated, will home field really matter in this one? It may on the travel side of things, as San Francisco has been at home for three straight weeks now (bye and last week’s game) while New York is on the road for the second straight week and traveling cross-country. San Francisco’s elite rushing defense could factor in here as well as the Giants tend to struggle when they can’t establish their running game. I think the 49ers have a great shot at winning this game, but I find myself leaning towards the Giants. 1. San Francisco gave up some big plays in the secondary last week, and the Giants wide receiving core manufactures big plays all the time, leading me to believe that this will be a defensive struggle with a big play or two from New York to break it open, and 2. I trust Eli Manning more than Alex Smith down the stretch. Smith had an incredible game last week, but that’s a total of ONE game on his resume; Eli is in top form and has done this before. If it comes down to the wire, as I think there’s a good chance it might, I trust the veteran Giants to get the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Giants
OVER/UNDER 42: Over (27-17 NY Giants)

For a more on my thoughts and predictions on these two games, please listen to my podcast alongside Kevin Taylor on this weekend’s action: NFL: Beyond the Numbers

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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