Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Awww, I miss you guys already.

It’s that time of year again, where we must say farewell. Hopefully, my strong finish erased your memories of my terrible start, and sometime around May you’ll think back and say “man, that Dave sure knew his stuff”.

Which is why I strongly advocate cleaning out your email box and deleting weeks 1-10 of the Dime. I mean heck, who needs those anyway?

Are you excited for the big game this year? I’m excited for my annual Super Bowl party, but the game itself? Not so much.

It is a compelling game; plenty of great story lines to follow, two deserving teams, the rematch element of course… but I just don’t like these two teams. New York vs. Boston? That doesn’t ring any bells.

The Patriots I haven’t liked since the tuck rule back in the 2001 season cost my Raiders their chance at a Super Bowl run.

As for the Giants, I was set on betting them at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl the last time I was in Vegas because I felt they were capable of making a run like they are on now. Didn’t get a chance to (was going to right before we left, but MGM sports books had them at the laughably terrible odds of 8/1 and I didn’t have time to get to another casino), so now all I can think about is how much money I’m missing out on *if* the Giants pull it off.

Do I think they will? Time to put my 8-2 playoff record on the line with one final prediction; who will win the Super Bowl.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Without the spread: 1 – 1 (.500)
Over/Under: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Playoffs
With the spread: 8 – 2 – 0 (.800)
Without the spread: 8 – 2 (.800)
Over/Under: 4 – 6 – 0 (.400)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 124 – 122 – 10 (.504)
Without the spread: 160 – 96 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 22 – 22 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

#2 Baltimore (+7.0) @ #1 New England (-7.0)
#4 NY Giants (+2.5) @ #2 San Francisco (-2.5)

THE BAD

None!

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

NFC Champion New York Giants (+3.0) vs. AFC Champion New England Patriots (-3.0)

There is a lot to like about the New York Giants in this game. I ghostwrote a total of seven articles for this game over the last two weeks, and in one of my assignments I was tasked with making a compelling case for both sides. The Giants side was much easier to make.

I stated that when you consider the fact that both of these offenses are playing at an elite level, you have to look to the defenses to see who has the advantage; and when healthy and confident as the Giants are now, it isn’t even a contest. New York comes into the game substantially more battle-tested in recent weeks with big wins over the Jets and Cowboys to get into the playoffs, a dominant performance against Atlanta, and then road wins over the NFC’s top two teams in Green Bay and San Francisco. Meanwhile, New England had a bye, a terrible Denver team at home, and last week’s win over Baltimore was their first against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. The “revenge” factor being sold so heavily by the New England side can be considered somewhat negligible considering the fact that motivation shouldn’t be an issue… this IS the Super Bowl, after all. The Giants went into New England and beat the Patriots there, why shouldn’t they be able to do the same on a neutral field? The list goes on, but the point is clear: on paper, it is hard to make a compelling case against the Giants.

But I find myself unable to pry myself away from picking New England. Can I make a compelling case for the Patriots? Perhaps not, but I’ll do my best.

1. The defense isn’t as bad as advertised – New England finished 31st in the NFL in passing yards against and total yards against, prompting experts and fans to lick their chops at what Eli Manning and New York’s elite wide receivers can do against this awful defense. The only defense that finished worse than New England’s in each category? 15-1 Green Bay’s. So the top seeds in both the AFC and NFC had the league’s “worst” total defenses and passing defenses. New Orleans finished 30th in passing yards against.

Notice the trend? When you run a staggering offense that averages nearly five touchdowns a game, you tend to take big leads. Those big leads force your opponent to pass the ball a lot to catch up on you, and you are left with some ugly looking stats. When it comes to scoring defense, the Patriots finished 14th in the league with 21.4 points per game against; and over their last 10 games, they’ve given up just 18.8 points per game against. Only four teams in the NFL averaged better than 18.8 per game against this season.

Will New England’s defense be mistaken for an elite unit? No. But this is a serviceable group that isn’t nearly as useless as it is made out to be.

2. Revenge – It may seem lame, and as I said above, motivation shouldn’t be an issue; but I honestly believe that it does matter. The leaders on this team (including Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Logan Mankins and Vince Wilfork) were on the team the last time around, and they’ve been waiting a long time for this opportunity. Throughout the years, I’ve always gone with teams in big revenge spots as I believe revenge is one of the sport’s strongest motivators. Why shouldn’t that be true on the biggest stage?

3. New York is over-confident – They know this is exactly like the run they had in 2007. They know they’ve beaten the Patriots already this season, and that was without Ahmad Bradshaw. They know that Rob Gronkowski is shaken up. They know that New England’s pass defense ranks near the bottom of the league. Over the last two weeks, they’ve been talking more trash, and it seems pretty clear that they expect to win. Confidence is a good thing, but over-confidence against a team hungry for revenge could spell doom.

4. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick – Two of the greats of all time, and certainly of the last decade. They already have three Super Bowl rings, but how will their legacy be remembered if they lose this game? To lose to the same team in the Super Bowl twice, to have so many dominant regular seasons and to go seven years (and counting if they lose) without a championship? Their story would be about greatness, but a major footnote would be missed opportunities. Brady is arguably the best quarterback in the game, and Belichick is arguably the best coach in the game; taking nothing away from anyone in Giants garb, I believe that the preparation and work that these two have put into this game will not be matched and should put the Patriots over the top.

So that’s that. I think New England comes out on top. Considering my historically incredible run of being on the wrong side in the Super Bowl and the fact that I didn’t get that 25/1 bet in, you have to figure the Giants are a lock to win this one, don’t you? But then again, I am 8-2 straight up and against the spread this year… maybe its time for me to be right for a change. We’ll find out.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 55: Under (27-21 New England)

For a more on my thoughts and predictions on the big game, please listen to my podcast alongside Kevin Taylor: NFL: Beyond the Numbers

Good luck!

And thank you all so much for supporting me and reading the Dime all season long. I truly appreciate it!

If you want to keep in touch over the off-season, email me any time and if you haven’t already, follow me on Facebook or Twitter.

Enjoy the game and I’ll see you guys next year!

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