Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

(I spend a lot of time typing this up every week, mainly for the enjoyment of my readers. If you are receiving this email, it is because I feel like you will have a good time reading it and/or you asked me to send it to you at some point. This is not meant to be spam mail. If you want to be taken off the list at any point, let me know, and I’ll remove you immediately… but its much better for my pride if you just delete it every week and let me think that you kinda care. Thanks!)

*Groan* “Oh no, not again!”

That’s right! You know that uncle you all have that ruins every Thanksgiving by overstaying his welcome and not taking a hint that he needs to stop?

Call me Uncle Dave!

The owners and players almost stopped me. They sat around the table mulling over sacrificing billions of dollars in revenue and hundreds of thousands of jobs around the country, many arguing that it would be a small price to pay to put the Dime out of it’s misery once and for all. (Joke’s on them, I had a Dave’s Dime: Knitting Edition lined up as a backup plan)

But alas, cooler heads prevailed and decided that the world would be a better place with NFL football. And putting up with me for another season comes with the territory.

Last year was, without question, the worst of my handicapping “career” (if you can call typing a blog and newsletter that your mother and six others, yes you included, read a “career”). Pro picks sucked, college picks sucked, hell even my always-reliable philosophy picks sucked. All my worst records to date.

Main bullet point: I sucked.

At this point, I’d love to promise you things will be different in 2011. That I’ve figured it all out. That I’m a new man. But alas, I’m still the lovable loser I was when we last spoke. I still love you guys… will you still love me?

Even if my best years are behind me (at the ripe old age of 25)?

As I say every year, keep in mind, you get what you pay for. And you pay nothing.

(Wait, did I just argue that I’m nothing? Yikes, imagine how moody I’ll be when I actually lose a game or two… or 12).

On to the action!

THE RECORD

2010 Season
With the spread: 122 – 128 – 6 (.488)
Without the spread: 150 – 106 – 0 (.586)
^Philosophy Picks^: 17 – 20 – 0 (.459)

2009 Season
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^Philosophy Picks^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

2008 Season
With the spread: 130 – 119 – 7 (.522)
Without the spread: 159 – 96 – 1 (.624)
^Philosophy Picks^: 25 – 11 – 0 (.694)

2007 Season
With the spread: 124 – 123 – 9 (.502)
Without the spread: 157 – 99 – 0 (.613)
^Philosophy Picks^: 14 – 7 – 2 (.667)

2006 Season
With the spread: 126 – 121 – 9 (.510)
Without the spread: 154 – 102 – 0 (.602)
^Philosophy Picks^: 24 – 22 – 2 (.522)

2005 Season
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
^Philosophy Picks^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.

With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.
^Philosophy Picks^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats and more closely at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that. Hitting over 60% lifetime with these! For more info, check out this video: http://www.davesdime.com/why-philosophy-picks-work/

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether I was right or wrong.

THE PICKS

And where would we be without actually making some picks?

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first-timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

Last season I started off 4-9-3… go easy on me this year please, football gods!

THURSDAY

New Orleans (+4.5) @ Green Bay (-4.5)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one so many times that I almost didn’t get the Dime out in time to mention it. I like the offseason New Orleans had, and think this could be a big year for them. But in Green Bay? Even if the Saints’ offense is working against that stingy Green Bay defense, I can’t see the defense slowing down Aaron Rodgers with all of his weapons healthy and at his disposal. Should be a great game that reminds us just how much we missed the NFL, and Green Bay makes one or two extra stops on defense to win this one by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

SUNDAY

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Chicago (+2.5)
A deceptively tricky game, as Atlanta overachieved a bit last year and Chicago is always underrated. Still, with the additions of Ray Edwards and Julio Jones, Atlanta improved a team that won 13 games last year. Chicago, meanwhile, has one of their defensive stars (Lance Briggs) asking for a trade and plenty of question marks on offense. Could go either way, but I like Matt Ryan late in the game a lot more than Jay Cutler.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Cleveland (-6.5)
Cincinnati will be lucky to get back to four wins this year. For a team to go 4-12 and then lose their top three offensive players (Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Terrelle Owens) and one of their best defensive players (Johnathan Joseph)… doesn’t bode to well for the season at hand. Andy Dalton and AJ Green are nice pieces to build around, but it will be a process. Cleveland is a bit further along in the rebuilding process, and Peyton Hillis and the defense should lead the Browns to an easy win against their in-state rival this weekend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Buffalo (+6.0) @ Kansas City (-6.0)
Despite their 4-12 record, Buffalo was a tough out last season, and they’ve got a solid offense and pass defense. The problem is that they didn’t do much to address their league-worst rushing defense, and Kansas City happens to have one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles. Charles will likely have a field day, but I think Buffalo will manage to do enough on offense and come up with the occasional stop to at least keep this one close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Philadelphia (-4.0) @ St. Louis (+4.0)
My only philosophy pick of the week. With all of the hype surrounding Philadelphia after one of the greatest offseasons of all time, this team looks virtually unbeatable on paper; and they are only a 4-point favorite against St. Louis? The same mediocre 7-9 team that had only one win against a team over .500 last season? 80%+ have bet the Eagles, but I’m going the other way, as this looks way too obvious. My guess would be that bookmakers feel that Philly can’t gel overnight, and will take a few games to find their groove. Hope they are right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

Detroit (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
It’s a shame that we won’t get to see Nick Fairley in this one, but he’ll be on the field soon enough. In the meantime, I still think Detroit has enough to beat Tampa Bay here. Josh Freeman is a star in the making at quarterback, and could lead the Buccaneers to a win here; but I think Detroit is farther along on both sides of the ball, and Tampa Bay is set for a regression from last season’s shocking 10 wins. It starts with a home loss this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Tennessee (+2.5) @ Jacksonville (-2.5)
So Peyton Manning is ruled out for Week One, and the division is officially wide open. So what do you do if you are Jacksonville? Waive your starting quarterback, of course! Very strange move, especially from a timing perspective, for the Jags. I have trouble telling these two teams apart; both have an elite running back (Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew) and both have lackluster defenses. Tiebreaker goes to quarterback, and I’m not taking Luke McCown over Matt Hasselbeck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Baltimore (-1.5)
Up there with Jets/Patriots, this one is consistently one of the absolute best matchups in the NFL to watch. In their last 18 meetings (since 2003), one touchdown separates the two team’s scoring, with Pittsburgh holding the edge at 333-326 (per Adam Schefter). So how do you pick a game like this, short of flipping a coin? I look to last season, when Baltimore held a big lead in the playoffs and looked to be on their way to the AFC Championship; only to have it slip away at the hands of the Steelers. This is a revenge game through and through, and it comes at home. I’d call it a philosophy pick, but there won’t be any lack of motivation from either side in this hated rivalry. Still, Baltimore gets the slight nod.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Indianapolis (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
Simply devastating news that Peyton Manning will need more surgery, and could end up missing the entire year. One of my favorite players, hope he gets better soon and is back on the field healthy for years to come. But turning our attention to this week’s game, it’s hard to imagine Houston not winning it and taking the inside track towards their first AFC South title. That said, I think Indianapolis will come together here and step up to try and prove they aren’t just a one man team. It likely won’t be enough to win the game, but to keep it within single digits? I think they can.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

NY Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Didn’t love the offseason the Giants had, losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss to free agency in the passing game and then Terrell Thomas to injury during the preseason. They may have trouble keeping up in the NFC this year, but they shouldn’t have any trouble with the Redskins, who are going with Rex Grossman at quarterback in Week One. They added some nice options at wide receiver, but with Grossman or Beck at quarterback, that may not matter. They didn’t do much to improve a very bad defense, which leads me to believe the Giants should move the ball fine Sunday and pick up the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Seattle brought in some great players this offseason, including Sidney Rice and Zach Miller, who are both proven weapons in the passing game. Which brings us to quarterback; Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst? Pete Carroll seems high on Jackson, and I see flashes, but I don’t think he can be relied on as a starter. San Francisco underachieved last year, and under new coach Jim Harbaugh I expect them to play to their potential. Hard to give up 5.5 points on an Alex Smith-led team, but I think the 49ers win easily in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Minnesota (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
So what San Diego are we going to get? The habitual slow starter, or the team that on paper should be a serious playoff contender this year? At home, I’m leaning towards the latter. San Diego’s running game is a bit of a concern as Ryan Mathews hasn’t really panned out yet, but that doesn’t matter too much when you have one of the best passing attacks in the league. The Chargers’ defense should force Donovan McNabb into some bad decisions, and the offense should do the rest.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Carolina (+7.0) @ Arizona (-7.0)
I’m sorry, but even against lowly Carolina, Arizona doesn’t deserve to be a 7-point favorite. Carolina still has two very good running backs, some decent players on defense, and I actually believe Cam Newton will play well. There will be nerves, but he’s more prone to tucking the ball and running than making a terrible decision throwing if the pocket breaks down. Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald should get their career off on the right foot this week, but the defense (now without Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) is bad enough to let Carolina stick around and not make Newton’s debut too difficult.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Dallas (+4.5) @ NY Jets (-4.5)
Much is being made of the Jets playing in prime time on the 10-year anniversary of September 11, 2001. It has the potential to be an extremely emotional game, which could help or hurt the Jets play; there’s just no way to know. As a result, I’ll just stick to the football side; and I think the Jets can cover this spread. Dallas should bounce back from an off-year last year, but not against this defense. Loaded up with an improved wide receiving core with the additions of Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason, Mark Sanchez should have plenty of options when the running game opens up the pass; and should be able to give the defense a lead they can hold on to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

MONDAY

New England (-7.0) @ Miami (+7.0)
Perhaps my craziest pick this week, I’m taking Miami outright. Even I know that’s madness. But this team has an underrated defense, and I feel that Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas are both explosive backs with a lot of upside. New England’s defense wasn’t great last season, and if we get the Chad Henne that doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times, I feel Miami can do enough on offense to keep this one close. Granted, Tom Brady is going to get his points; but the chemistry hasn’t quite blossomed with Ochocinco yet, and it could end up being a distraction. And New England can’t win EVERY game, can they?
A capable Miami team at home with seven points seems like a good deal to me. Outright upset? That’s strictly my gut talking.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Oakland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
Oakland lost two of the most important pieces of last year’s team in Zach Miller and Nnamdi Asomugha, but virtually everyone else remains, and many seem poised to take a step forward. This of course is the same team that beat Denver comfortably twice last year. Kyle Orton will put up his share of yards against the Raiders, especially with Asomugha gone; but the Raiders offense is steadily improving, and the awful Broncos defense should only make it look better, as they did last year. This could end up being a shootout, but I think Oakland’s defense makes more plays and gets the job done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

(I get many requests for my “favorite picks of the week”, since I don’t make a distinction in picking every game. In this new section, I’ll rank my top five favorite picks each week. This will give us all a good indication of just how bad- er, good, I am.

1. St. Louis +4.0
2. Baltimore -1.5
3. Tennessee +2.5
4. Carolina +7.0
5. NY Giants -3.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

(In this section I list my top plays of the week in college football. Since I explain each of these picks in depth in my youtube videos, I’ll just list the picks here instead of typing up the commentary and repeating myself (as if once isn’t bad enough, right?))

RECORD: 5 – 3 – 0 (.625)

Week 1 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-1/

Bowling Green +6.5 (WIN)
Purdue -17.0 (LOSS)
Houston -3.0 (WIN)
Stanford -30.0 (WIN)
South Carolina -20.5 (LOSS)
LSU +4.0 (WIN)
Hawaii -7.0 (WIN)
Arkansas State/Illinois Over 57.5 (LOSS)

Week 2 Video Coming Soon

Oregon State +20.5
Tulsa -12.5
Alabama -10.0
UNLV +13.5
Notre Dame -3.0
UCLA -21.0
Hawaii/Washington Over 52
Nevada/Oregon Over 63

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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