Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

So much for getting this out early…

After a long day and night of poker tournaments (no finishes in the cash sadly) and reflection, I am quite tired, but the Dime must go on.

We’ve officially reached the halfway point in the NFL as every team has played at least eight games.

Can I learn from my first-half mistakes (and build on a nice week last week), or will I continue to fall flat on my face down the stretch?

My money is on face-planting.

Well, my money would be on face-planting. I lost all of my money playing poker, so…

But hmm… considering I never get any of my predictions right, and I’m predicting I’ll continue to get predictions wrong, will this prediction be wrong thus making my future predictions right?

Paradox.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)

Season
With the spread: 61 – 65 – 4 (.484)
Without the spread: 82 – 48 – 0 (.631)
^Philosophy Picks^: 11 – 15 – 0 (.423)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (+4.0) @ Kansas City (-4.0)
NY Jets (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Seattle (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Cleveland (+10.5) @ Houston (-10.5)
Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Denver (+7.0) @ Oakland (-7.0)
St. Louis (+2.5) @ Arizona (-2.5)
Green Bay (-5.5) @ San Diego (+5.5)
Chicago (+8.0) @ Philadelphia (-8.0)

THE BAD

Atlanta (-6.5) @ Indianapolis (+6.5)
Tampa Bay (+8.5) @ New Orleans (-8.5)
San Francisco (-4.0) @ Washington (+4.0)
NY Giants (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0)
Baltimore (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

Oakland (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
I’d love to make a case for the Raiders here, and if there is one, it would focus on the fact that the Chargers have been out of sync and Philip Rivers has done an awful job protecting the ball. But without Darren McFadden, Oakland doesn’t have enough of a rushing threat to force teams out of pass coverage; and while Carson Palmer took some big strides last week, I still don’t trust him as the only focal point of the offense. It may end up being ugly and close, but at home, I think San Diego gets out to an early lead and doesn’t look back.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

SUNDAY

Arizona (+14.0) @ Philadelphia (-14.0)
Arizona sucks, and won’t have Kevin Kolb under center as he’s out with a foot injury. Philadelphia will be fired up to get revenge for a loss at home Monday night. But with all that said, Philadelphia has no business being a 14-point favorite against anyone this season. Maybe they put it all together and blow Arizona out this week, but considering the Cardinals kept it within two touchdowns against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, they’re capable of doing the same against the 3-5 Eagles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Tennessee (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
Carolina’s biggest weakness this year has been defending against the run, but going up against the worst rushing team in the league and the invisible Chris Johnson, this shouldn’t be a problem. Or is this the week Johnson finally gets back on track? Either way, Carolina shouldn’t have trouble scoring into the 20’s in this one, and I think that’ll be enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Houston (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay (+3.5)
Houston has managed to get by without Andre Johnson lately, but games against Tennessee, Cleveland, and Jacksonville certainly helped that cause. Against a Buccaneers team that’s had a tough stretch of games (New Orleans twice, Chicago, and San Francisco over their last four) and is itching to get back on track, I think missing their best receiver finally catches up to the Texans and they stumble on the road here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Washington (+4.0) @ Miami (-4.0)
Last week I had Washington upsetting San Francisco and Miami upsetting Kansas City; Washington failed, but Miami prevailed in a blowout win. So now all of a sudden the 1-7 Dolphins are a 4-point favorite? Washington is terrible, especially with all of their injuries, but this is one of their last legitimate chances to steal a win this season and I think they are going to be hungrier in this one as Miami can take a sigh of relief after winning last week. In an ugly game with very little offense, I think the Redskins pull off the minor upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Jacksonville (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
Colts fans and management might want that Andrew Luck draft pick, but the players on the field don’t. St. Louis showed it against New Orleans, Miami showed it against Kansas City, and this week, I think Indianapolis shows it against Jacksonville. The skill discrepancy between these two teams really isn’t that far apart, and with home field advantage and the knowledge that this is their best chance of the season to avoid an 0-16 record… this is the week that Indianapolis finally wins a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

Denver (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0)
In a week full of tough games, this is the only one that I am very confident in. We have Kansas City coming off of a humiliating loss, dominated on both sides of the ball at home against a previously winless Miami team. Then we have Denver, riding high coming off of a win over the Raiders after Oakland’s second-half collapse. Big letdown spot for Denver (as Detroit was following the Miami win), and big bounce-back spot for Kansas City in their second straight game at home. Chiefs win this one comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Kansas City

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Dallas (-5.5)
I believe that this spread is an overreaction to how bad Buffalo looked last week against the Jets. But in my opinion, that game had more to do with New York being back in form on defense than it did with Buffalo struggling. Against Dallas, the Bills should be able to get rolling again. I think this will be a shootout down to the wire, and I lean towards Buffalo winning it outright as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

New Orleans (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
These two teams always seem to play great games against each other, and this week should be no exception. I was leaning slightly towards New Orleans as I expect them to pick up their game in the second half, but I eventually swayed over to Atlanta. Atlanta has started to come into form over the last month, and Michael Turner is having a great season at running back. New Orleans has had trouble stopping the run, and in Atlanta, I think the Falcons can outshoot the Saints in what should be a great game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

St. Louis (+2.5) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
As was the case last week when a bad Arizona team beat St. Louis, I think this bad Cleveland team will as well. Cleveland has been awful on offense and can’t run the ball, but they should be able to pass the ball easily enough on this week Rams defense and put up their share of points at home. This will be another ugly game, but I think Cleveland gets it even if only by a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland

Pittsburgh (-4.0) @ Cincinnati (+4.0)
Tough game to call, as I’m a bit of a believer in Cincinnati and four points for a defense this strong, at home, is a lot to pass on. But looking at the Bengals six wins, only one has been against a team with a winning record (Buffalo). Are the ready for a game like this? If Pittsburgh had held on to beat Baltimore, I’d give them more of a shot; but Pittsburgh is going to be angry and wanting to make a statement that this division is still there’s, and I have trouble picking against them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Baltimore (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5)
Baltimore coming off of a huge win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle coming off of a 10-point loss on the road against Dallas and struggling miserably on offense for weeks. Going up against this defense, it’s hard to believe this will be the week they get it back on track. 85% of bettors are on Baltimore this week, which makes it very surprising that the line moved from -7.0 to -6.5. As is always the case for me, if bookmakers are trying to entice me onto one side, I’ll take the other, so I have to go with Seattle. On the bright side, Baltimore does have a history (Tennessee, Jacksonville) of laying eggs this season, so it could happen.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

NY Giants (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Who’d have pegged this game for a potential battle for the two-seed in the NFC? Hard to go against the Giants coming off of a win against New England, but I have to do just that. With Ahmad Bradshaw still out, I don’t think New York will have any success running the ball against this stingy defense; and this linebacking core can get pressure on Manning and force some mistakes. I’m a believer in the 49ers this year, and think they will win and cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Detroit (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
This one simply comes down to rest and focus. Detroit has had a bye week to rest and prepare, and with as easy as that Denver blowout was, you could argue that they’ve had two bye weeks. Meanwhile, Chicago had an emotional road game against Philadelphia Monday night and now has to play on a short week. Considering the rest and that I like the Lions a bit better on paper as well, I’ll take them on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

New England (+2.0) @ NY Jets (-2.0)
I’ve gone back and forth on this one multiple times. New York is definitely in much better current form, and they have their swagger back; a scary sight for opposing teams, especially when facing this defense. But on the other hand, is a Bill Belichick and Tom Brady led team really going to lose its third straight game… on national television no less? I kind of feel like they won’t, but my gut pick at the beginning of the week was New York, and at home I’ll stick with that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

MONDAY

Minnesota (+13.0) @ Green Bay (-13.0)
Normally I’d shy away from giving up so many points, especially against a division rival. But with no look ahead game next week and Green Bay clicking on all cylinders, they probably will blow the Vikings out; and I’m not in the mood to back this dog. I’ll take the NFL’s best team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 19 – 25 – 1 (.432)

1. Kansas City -3.0
2. Seattle +6.5
3. Buffalo +5.5
4. Indianapolis +3.0
5. Tampa Bay +3.5

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 42 – 34 – 1 (.553)

Week 11 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-11/

Virginia Tech -1.5 (WIN)
Nebraska -3.5 (LOSS)
Ohio State -7.0 (LOSS)
Texas Tech +17.0 (LOSS)
TCU +15.0 (WIN)
Wisconsin -27.0 (WIN)
Western Kentucky +41.5 (WIN)
UNLV -7.0 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!