Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

College football’s regular season ended with a bang Saturday.

Oklahoma State blew out rival Oklahoma, making a strong case to be selected over Alabama for a BCS Championship berth.

Robert Griffin III capped off an incredible season with another incredible game, scoring four total touchdowns (two throwing, two passing) in Baylor’s 48-24 win over Texas. Montee Ball also had four touchdowns, bringing him to 38 on the season, just one shy of the all time record currently held by Barry Sanders.

Friday, I was 100% convinced that Alabama was going to be playing LSU in the National Championship, and that Trent Richardson was going to win the Heisman Trophy.

Now, Oklahoma State has a bit of hope. The Heisman race is wide open.

And it got me to thinking…

Perception can change just like that. In just a few short hours, a sure thing can be anything but.

So what’s to say I can’t actually finish the season strong here?!?

I know it’s a long shot, I know I suck, I know I’ve proven that all season long… but if all this college football action can turn on a dime, why can’t I?!?

*Sigh* I know. These pep-talks followed by awful weeks are getting trite. But I only have five more weeks before the regular season is over, you can put up with my dual personalities a little while longer.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.571)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 80 – 91 – 5 (.468)
Without the spread: 106 – 70 – 0 (.602)
^Philosophy Picks^: 14 – 18 – 0 (.438)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Green Bay (-6.0) @ Detroit (+6.0)
Miami (+7.0) @ Dallas (-7.0)
San Francisco (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
Houston (-6.5) @ Jacksonville (+6.5)
Buffalo (+9.5) @ NY Jets (-9.5)
Minnesota (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Denver (+6.0) @ San Diego (-6.0)
New England (-3.5) @ Philadelphia (+3.5)

THE BAD

Cleveland (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Arizona (+2.5) @ St. Louis (-2.5)
Carolina (-3.5) @ Indianapolis (+3.5)
Chicago (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
Washington (+3.5) @ Seattle (-3.5)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
NY Giants (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
One of my most automatic philosophy plays is taking a team that is coming off of a loss as a favorite at home when they are at home and an underdog the following week, which is exactly what the scenario is this week with the Seattle Seahawks. It also doesn’t hurt Seattle’s chances that Mike Vick, Jeremy Maclin, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are all injured and will miss the game. Philadelphia is definitely the more talented team, but the Seahawks are a very proud home team, and after letting their home fans down with last week’s loss to a bad Washington team, I think they bounce back with an upset win tonight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

SUNDAY

Carolina (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Tampa Bay has lost five straight, but all five were to teams over .500 and four were away from home. No more excuses as 3-8 Carolina comes to town. Maybe Tampa Bay is up to the task, but all I’ve seen this year is a team with a very bad defense that has lost its mojo offensively perhaps trying to do too much to compensate for that bad defense. Cam Newton and the Panthers have the talent to shootout with Tampa Bay, and I think they’ll do just that and pick up their second straight road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh by seven last time around and lost to Baltimore by seven two weeks ago, so this spread seems to be fairly accurate. Given that I have to choose a side, I’ll take Pittsburgh; not only are the Steelers at home this time around, but they are also coming off of an ugly performance on offense last week that they’d love to put behind them with a convincing win this week. Expect this one to be right around a 7-point win for the Steelers, but hopefully it’ll be by a few points more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Atlanta (-1.0) @ Houston (+1.0)
Even with rookie TJ Yates under center, Houston still has an incredible supporting cast led by Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. That said, Atlanta is healthy and is starting to surge over the last few weeks. The Texans have played well on both sides of the ball this season, but in a game that I expect to be close in which quarterback play will likely be a factor, I have to side with Matt Ryan over TJ Yates.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

NY Jets (-2.5) @ Washington (+2.5)
Everyone seemed to think the Jets were down and out after losing to Denver, but this team is still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot and has thrived under pressure over the last few seasons. Meanwhile, Washington put together a nice effort in a loss to Dallas and is coming off of a win at Seattle, but does that really qualify as a total 180? Rex Grossman against this Jets defense is a disaster waiting to happen. I fully expect the Jets to not only win this week but to win comfortably, regardless of their road woes this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Indianapolis (+20.5) @ New England (-20.5)
My goodness, is this college? 20.5 points? I can’t say I disagree with the spread, it seems very likely that the Patriots will blow the Colts out considering they are the AFC’s best team going against a team that is 0-11 and isn’t putting up much of a fight against anyone. Still, 20+ points in the NFL? Call me a sucker, but on principle alone, I can’t pass that up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Oakland (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
I’ve gone against the Raiders three straight weeks, and each time they’ve proven me wrong with a win. As a fan, I hope that streak continues, because I’m going against them again this week. Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, losing close on the road against New York and Dallas and winning games against Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo. Matt Moore is playing extremely well, and the defense has averaged just 10 points per game against over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders are decimated with injuries as their three most explosive players (Darren McFadden, Jacoby Ford, and Denarius Moore) are all out with injuries. Last week, the Raiders got by thanks to Caleb Hanie’s three interceptions. I get the feeling Moore plays a smarter game, Miami’s defense steps up, and the Dolphins get the win. Also, the fact that a 7-4 team is an underdog against a 3-8 team certainly suggests that Vegas thinks so, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Denver (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0)
With Adrian Peterson ruled out, this looks like it should be just another stop on the Tim Tebow train. But you know what? I think this is the week that the train derails. I’ve become a believer to some degree, but we all know deep down that this can’t keep up forever; and for all of Minnesota’s weaknesses, run defense is one of it’s strengths. Denver’s 5-1 run has every bit to do with the defense as it does Tebow, and Denver’s defense could keep the Broncos in it right down to the wire as it has been lately… but I think Jared Allen comes up with a big play or two and Minnesota grasps what could be their last realistic opportunity at picking up its third win this season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

Tennessee (+2.0) @ Buffalo (-2.0)
Tennessee has quietly put together a 6-5 campaign, and if Chris Johnson’s 190-yard rushing performance last week was a sign that he has returned, the Titans are still very much alive for a playoff spot in the AFC. Buffalo has lost four straight and left it all on the field in last week’s close loss to the New York Jets. Not only do I think Tennessee wants this game more, but at this stage of the season, I think they are the better team, too. In what could be a shootout-type of game, I think Tennessee will persevere.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Kansas City (+7.0) @ Chicago (-7.0)
Kansas City has mustered up just 25 points over the last four games (average of 6.25 points per game) with only one touchdown over that stretch. Now, without much left to play for, the Chiefs go on the road to play a very tough Chicago defense. Do you like their chances to score much more than 10 points? Neither do I. Caleb Hanie should have a better day at home than he did last week in Oakland, and he shouldn’t be asked to do a whole lot. The Bears should take care of business with a double-digit victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Baltimore (-7.0) @ Cleveland (+7.0)
This one’s just a straight up gut pick. Baltimore is 5-0 at home this season, but just 3-3 on the road with ugly losses at Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Seattle. In both the Jacksonville and Seattle games, Baltimore had a chance to establish itself as arguably the team to beat in the AFC and take a stranglehold of the North, and both times the Ravens failed to do so. They’re in that exact position again, on the road with a chance to improve to 9-3 and hold onto their lead in the North; will they blow it again? Common sense and brain say no, but my gut says yes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5)
Arizona started the week as a 6-point underdog, and is now a 4.5-point underdog. This line movement is particularly interesting when you consider that 85% of the betting action this week came in on the Cowboys. Clearly, Vegas has been encouraging bettors to take the red-hot Cowboys all week. Despite the 4-0 record, Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in those four wins and 1-4 ATS in its last five. Arizona has played decently lately and has covered the spread in four of its last five games. On paper, I love Dallas this week; but this feels like a trap, and the reverse line movement suggests that it is. Put me on Vegas’s side of the trap every time!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Green Bay (-6.5) @ NY Giants (+6.5)
New York has lost three straight and Green Bay is undefeated, so you could certainly make the case for this being a philosophy spot. But I don’t think it is; the Packers already had their slip-up-look-ahead game against Tampa Bay, they’ve had a long week to focus and prepare, and they know this is the toughest game remaining on their schedule. New York is fighting for its playoff life, so I don’t expect any lack of effort from that side. But if both teams play their best, which I anticipate will be the case, I expect Green Bay to win this one by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

St. Louis (+13.5) @ San Francisco (-13.5)
After getting a tough draw on traveling cross-country on three days rest for Thanksgiving, the 49ers have had plenty of time to re-charge the batteries at home, where they face a very weak opponent this week. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t like to lose, and I’m sure the team heard about it after Thursday’s loss to Baltimore. San Francisco should come out fired up to clinch the NFC West, and should do just that with a big win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Detroit (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)
Last week I made the mistake of picking against New Orleans at home, and this week I’ll make the same mistake. The Lions are coming off of an ugly loss on Thanksgiving in a game that they really thought they could win, and New Orleans is coming off of a huge win on Monday night. Not only have the Lions had an extra four days of rest, but they’ve also had the chance to hear all week about Ndamukong Suh and his antics, and what they mean to the team and its playoff chances. Don’t you think this defense would love to prove this week that it’s not a one-man unit? I think the Lions step up big Sunday night on both sides of the ball, and while I don’t see them winning outright, I do think they keep it within one score.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

MONDAY

San Diego (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Losers of six straight, San Diego is one loss away from having the door slammed on this disappointing season. And with their backs against the wall, the Chargers get… the 3-8 Jacksonville Jaguars? Come on, San Diego. I can make excuses for all of the Chargers’ losses to this point, but I couldn’t for this game; San Diego is the superior team and needs to get the win here. The Jags may play loose at home under a new head coach, but their pitiful offense won’t muster up much more than 13, and you’d have to imagine San Diego could get to 17, wouldn’t you?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 53 – 36 – 1 (.596)

Week 14 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-14/

UCLA +31.0 (WIN)
LSU -13.5 (WIN)
Virginia Tech -7.0 (LOSS)
Michigan State/Wisconsin Over 54.5 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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