Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m great at holiday shopping.

All of my gifts are thoughtful. I never pay retail on anything, always find great deals. I’ve already bought gifts for everyone on my list, and all of those gifts are wrapped.

Impressive, isn’t it?

What does it have to do with picking NFL football games? Nothing at all, really. Just for those of you that only know me as an awful football handicapper, I thought you might be happy to know that I’m actually good at something.

Remarkably, even us dogs have our day. I finished with a winning record ATS for the second straight week last week at 10-6, and I’m 24-8 over the last two weeks without the spread. Do I have a strong finish in me?

I certainly hope so. All I want this holiday season is to finish up the Dime with a little dignity, and for the Oakland Raiders to make the playoffs.

With my track record and Oakland going up against the undefeated Packers and the team-of-destiny Broncos… not sure that I love my chances on either count.

But hey, that’s what miracles are for, right?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 90 – 97 – 5 (.468)
Without the spread: 117 – 75 – 0 (.609)
^Philosophy Picks^: 16 – 19 – 0 (.457)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
Carolina (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
NY Jets (-2.5) @ Washington (+2.5)
Indianapolis (+20.5) @ New England (-20.5)
Oakland (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
Tennessee (+2.0) @ Buffalo (-2.0)
St. Louis (+13.5) @ San Francisco (-13.5)
Dallas (-4.5) @ Arizona (+4.5)
San Diego (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)

THE BAD

Atlanta (-1.0) @ Houston (+1.0)
Denver (-1.0) @ Minnesota (+1.0)
Kansas City (+7.0) @ Chicago (-7.0)
Green Bay (-6.5) @ NY Giants (+6.5)
Baltimore (-7.0) @ Cleveland (+7.0)
Detroit (+9.0) @ New Orleans (-9.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

THURSDAY

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Sorry I didn’t send out an email, skipped my mind before gametime. Here is the tweet I sent out with my pick in the first quarter; http://twitter.com/#!/DavesDime/status/144960338348089344
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (WIN)

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+10.5) @ NY Jets (-10.5)
10, 9, 3, 10, 3. That’s the total offensive output of the Kansas City Chiefs in each of the last five games. On the road, going up against a desperate New York Jets team with an outstanding defense and Tyler Palko as your quarterback, this doesn’t look like the week it’ll get any better. So the question is, can New York get to 21 points? Kansas City’s defense has played well over the last few weeks, but I’m going to go ahead and say yes, the Jets can cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Tampa Bay (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Tough game to pick. Hard to believe a team with a six-game losing streak and an awful defense is a road favorite, but that speaks to how bad Jacksonville is, too. I could see this one going either way, and Maurice Jones-Drew could have a nice day against this lousy rushing defense; but overall, Jacksonville’s offense is hopeless, and I don’t think Tampa Bay is quite as bad as its record would indicate. This should be a game that the underachieving Bucs can handle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

New England (-9.0) @ Washington (+9.0)
Simple enough game for New England on paper, but the Patriots are due for a slip-up, aren’t they? Four straight games with 31+ points… and the defense is still bad. I don’t think New England is in any real danger of losing, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Patriots were looking ahead a bit to next week’s Tebow circus, and they end up needing four quarters to take care of Washington in a close one this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Another very tough game to pick. Atlanta hasn’t been a good road team this year, and Carolina is on a roll. I’ve gone back and fourth numerous times, but I keep coming back to the fact that Atlanta is a playoff-caliber team that needs a win, and Carolina is a team that doesn’t have a win over a team better than 4-8. In Week 16 or 17, I likely take Carolina as a philosophy pick… but this week, with a bit less urgency and a bit more focus, I think Atlanta pulls it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Indianapolis (+16.5) @ Baltimore (-16.5)
Baltimore has a huge game coming up next week against San Diego, and I just can’t imagine the Ravens will be taking this one all that seriously. It’s true the Ravens have coughed up some easy ones this year which may help them focus, but an early 10 to 14 point lead would likely be enough to prompt checking out for the rest of the game. It’s a long shot, considering just how awful Indianapolis is, but I’m suckered in by getting so many points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
On the one hand, I could argue this is a philosophy pick for Philadelphia, since the Eagles are coming off of a big loss as a favorite and Miami is coming off of a big win. But on the other hand, I’d argue that angle is negated by the fact that Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin return this week and this team is still an underdog. This one’s a coin-flip, and it is being bet that way. I have to go with the Dolphins; I love the way they are playing right now, defensively they look great, and confidence means so much in the NFL. They have it right now, and the Eagles don’t.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Minnesota (+10.0) @ Detroit (-10.0)
With Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder both game-time decisions, this one is impossible to pick logically. But heck, that’s never stopped me before, has it? The Vikings are bad, but four of their last five losses were by 10 points or less, and all were against competitive teams in Green Bay, Atlanta, Oakland and Denver. With Detroit in lousy form lately, should we really expect the Lions to roll here? They have the talent, but I don’t feel comfortable laying 10 points, so I’ll take the Vikings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
Now to the upsets; I like Tennessee to beat New Orleans this week. First of all, this spread looks funny; bettors LOVE New Orleans, and predictably, the Saints are receiving about 80% of the betting action this week, but the line hasn’t moved. New Orleans has won four straight both SU and ATS, so even though Tennessee is playing great too, this is definitely a trap spread. Here’s why I think Vegas wants people betting on the Saints. 1) They’re a bad road team at just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, 2) It is going to be very cold and the Saints don’t like cold weather, and 3) Chris Johnson is back. Much like in St. Louis’s upset of New Orleans behind a dominant performance by Steven Jackson, I expect the Titans to pound the ball with Chris Johnson, control the clock, and put up a lot of points. Tennessee’s playoff chances rise dramatically with the big upset win this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Tennessee

Houston (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
I always go against a team coming off of three straight division rivalry games. The logic is, it is very difficult to get up big for an out-of-conference opponent after having played in three straight games against a hated rival. Cincinnati is coming off of FOUR straight rivalry games! I can’t remember the last time I saw that. It also doesn’t hurt my cause that the Bengals are 1-3 and slipping while Houston is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games. Many expect Cincinnati to get back on track this week with TJ Yates at the helm for the Texans; but I think Houston will do enough to score 17-20 points, and the defense will do the rest and shut Cincinnati down as the Bengals come out flat. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Houston

Chicago (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
This spread is strictly due to Denver’s reputation as a come-from-behind team. Here’s a team on a 6-1 SU and ATS run at home against a team missing both its starting quarterback AND running back; a running back that makes up 43% of the teams offense and is first in the league in yards from scrimmage. The Bears are coming off of a 10-3 loss at home to Kansas City, and they are only a 3-point underdog here? Ridiculous line. And I know what you may be thinking; why don’t I call this one a trap line? Because all of Denver’s lines look like this as the public simply refuses to believe that Tim Tebow and the Broncos can keep this option nonsense up forever. Well believe it or not, this won’t be the week that it comes to an end. Denver’s defense is for real, and Chicago has nothing to like on offense with Cutler and Forte out. I expect the Broncos to roll quite easily in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

San Francisco (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
In another big upset pick, I’m taking Arizona to upset San Francisco outright. This line is definitely a trap line; yes, Arizona has been playing very well lately, but there are multiple reasons that San Francisco should be a bigger favorite. 1) They are the NFL’s best ATS team at 10-1-1, so bettors love to bet on them. 2) They are receiving 85% of betting action this week, so why hasn’t the line moved? 3) Unlike New Orleans, they aren’t a bad road team as they are 4-1 SU and ATS on the road. 4) They have won six straight against Arizona both SU and ATS, including an easy 23-7 win in their last meeting. The list goes on, but the point is, bookmakers are begging bettors to take San Francisco. My guess? The 49ers just clinched the division, and while they have plenty left to play for (a first round bye), they still mentally let up a little in this game, and Arizona pounces on it. But my guess aside, when Vegas begs me to go one way, I go the other.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Arizona

Buffalo (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
It may be too little too late for San Diego, but who knows? They’ve done it before. Monday night’s win over Jacksonville looked like a good ol’ fashion late-season Chargers beat down, and the confidence in this team afterwards was through the roof. Going up against a Buffalo team that has lost five straight, I think San Diego puts together another blowout victory and gets on their annual late-season roll.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Oakland (+11.5) @ Green Bay (-11.5)
With Oakland coming off of a terrible dud at Miami and Green Bay coming off of a thrilling game against New York and staring at a very realistic path to 16-0, I honestly think this is a great recipe for a slow start for the Packers and perhaps an early lead for Oakland. But with Darren McFadden, Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford STILL out, Oakland simply doesn’t have the firepower to shootout with the Packers. And even if Green Bay gets out to a slow start, are the Packers really going to be held under 30 at home by the Raiders? Just can’t see it. Have to go with Green Bay.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

NY Giants (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5)
The return of Ahmad Bradshaw is a MASSIVE boost for the Giants, even if he wasn’t super effective last week against the Packers. Before Bradshaw’s injury, the Giants were cruising. Losers of four straight, New York can still take back control of the NFC East with a win this week. Dallas is 4-1 in its last five games, but just 1-4 against the spread; the Cowboys have tended to play close games lately. In a hated division rivalry game with control of the division on the line, 4.5 points is too many to pass up on, even though I think Dallas wins it at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

St. Louis (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
So now Sam Bradford might play, as he practiced Saturday after missing all week. Or he might not. Does it matter? I have a hard time believing I’m going to lay so many points on Seattle, but the Seahawks have been playing very well lately and St. Louis has been hopeless on the road this season. Also, the Rams’ league-worst rush defense is going up against one of the NFL’s hottest running backs in Marshawn Lynch. Even if Bradford does play, Seattle has a great shot of covering the spread; if he doesn’t, it should be easy.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 53 – 36 – 1 (.596)

Might have some kind of “bowl picks” video next week. We’ll see!

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!