Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Happy New Year everyone!

Hope you all had a fun and safe New Years Eve and brought 2012 in with style. Or sleep, whatever your scene is!

Week 17 hasn’t meant this much to me in a long time, with the Raiders actually still alive for a playoff spot.

Can the Dime finish the season strong? Can the Raiders make the playoffs? Can 2012 get off to a GREAT start for me, please?!?

Here’s hoping. And here’s hoping that all of your wishes for today and the New Year come true, too!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 2 (.438)
Without the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 115 – 117 – 8 (.496)
Without the spread: 149 – 91 – 0 (.621)
^Philosophy Picks^: 20 – 21 – 0 (.488)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (-7.0) @ Indianapolis (+7.0)
Oakland (+2.5) @ Kansas City (-2.5)
Miami (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
Minnesota (+7.0) @ Washington (-7.0)
Philadelphia (+1.0) @ Dallas (-1.0)
San Francisco (-1.0) @ Seattle (+1.0)
Chicago (+11.0) @ Green Bay (-11.0)

THE BAD

Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0)
Arizona (+4.5) @ Cincinnati (-4.5)
Denver (-2.5) @ Buffalo (+2.5)
St. Louis (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh (-12.5)
NY Giants (+3.0) @ NY Jets (-3.0)
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Carolina (-7.5)
Cleveland (+12.0) @ Baltimore (-12.0)
San Diego (+2.0) @ Detroit (-2.0)
Atlanta (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

Carolina (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
This has the potential to be a very good game, and I’m hesitant to give up this many points… but New Orleans is 7-0 both straight up and against the spread in its last seven games overall and in its seven games at home this season; I’ve been burned too many times to go against them at home again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
While New England dominates this series, these two teams tend to play close games; and while the Patriots will definitely be playing for the one-seed, I think in the back of their heads they’ll be more concerned with staying healthy. Buffalo can score enough to make this a 31-24 type of loss and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Chicago (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
No idea in this one, but considering how awful Chicago has looked since Matt Forte was injured, I can’t come up with a good reason to take them on the road with only 2.5 points, even going up against a Minnesota team with no Adrian Peterson.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

NY Jets (+3.0) @ Miami (-3.0)
The Jets are playing for their playoff lives while Miami can play loose at home and in the spoiler role. Ending a hated rivals playoff chances and getting Jason Taylor a win in his last game as a Dolphin gives Miami plenty of motivation to play here, and the struggling Jets probably cough up one more to end the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

San Francisco (-10.5) @ St. Louis (+10.5)
One of my favorite spots during the last two weeks of the season is when a team that NEEDS a win is a road favorite against a division rival, I take the points on the home underdog. San Francisco needs a win to secure a first round bye, while St. Louis has nothing to lose and no expectations in this game. It also doesn’t get much more high vs. low than this as San Francisco is the league’s best against the spread team and St. Louis is the worst. 10.5 points at home is way too many in Week 17; can’t pick the Rams to win, but I do think they keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Detroit (-6.0) @ Green Bay (+6.0)
Aaron Rodgers and many other key starters won’t play as Green Bay rests up for the playoffs. The obvious choice may be Detroit, but something tells me this will be “one of those games” where the backups put forth their best effort and it ends up being a close one down to the wire. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Washington (+8.5) @ Philadelphia (-8.5)
LeSean McCoy is out, which definitely hurts Philadelphia’s offense, but I can’t pick against this team at home with the way they are closing out the season. There’s enough pride here to end the season on a high note with another big win over a division rival.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0)
As amusing as it would be for Indianapolis to win this game and lose Andrew Luck at this point, I just don’t think it is going to happen. Whether the coaching staff “tries” to lose the game by “giving young players playing time” or Indianapolis’s true colors get exposed back on the road, I think Jacksonville at home can handle the team they beat 17-3 in Indianapolis a few weeks back.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Tennessee (-1.0) @ Houston (+1.0)
Arian Foster won’t play for Houston. Andre Johnson will, but likely only for a quarter or two to get his feet wet. Tennessee is playing for its playoff life, and while I think a part of Houston would love a win in this game to go into the playoffs with some momentum, I can’t take a team in bad form sending its backups out there against a solid team like Tennessee.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Seattle (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
Both of these teams caught fire late in the season, but it was too little too late to make the playoffs. Still, both would love to end the year on a high note. I’m torn, but I have to go with Seattle; if for no other reason than I think it will be a three-point game either way, I might as well be on the side getting the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Kansas City (+2.0) @ Denver (-2.0)
Kyle Orton returning to Denver to take on the team and fans that kicked him out of town is must-see TV, and one of the reasons I like the Chiefs here. The Chiefs like playing for Romeo Crennel and they have nothing to lose in this game. Not only has Denver looked awful over the last few weeks, but there’s a chance the Broncos may be folding under the pressure of having actual expectations now. Putting it all together, I like the Chiefs to pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Atlanta (-10.0)
I hate that I have to take Tampa Bay after how many times the team has burned me, but I can’t get away from it in this spot. Not only do these teams tend to play close, but if Detroit wins in the morning (as I predict), Atlanta will have nothing to play for and will likely bench many of its starters. Heck, with the way Tampa Bay has looked, you could argue Atlanta’s back-ups could beat them by 10; but maybe the Bucs finally show up for the last game of their season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Cincinnati (+2.5)
So much is on the line for both teams with Baltimore looking to lock up the AFC North and a bye and Cincinnati looking to make the playoffs. Baltimore is 3-4 on the road this year, which is a major concern, but I have to go with the Ravens here. Baltimore finally has a chance to earn some home games in the playoffs and make a deep run, and they are the much more experienced team; I believe they can dig deep and grind out a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Pittsburgh (-7.0) @ Cleveland (+7.0)
Much like the St. Louis pick, Cleveland has the chance to ruin Pittsburgh’s chances at the NFC North Title and can play loose with nothing on the line. The Browns also have additional motivation for revenge as James Harrison injured Colt McCoy with a dirty helmet-to-helmet hit last time around, and McCoy is still out. With a Ben Roethlisberger hobbled and all the tension on Pittsburgh, I actually think Cleveland pulls off a shocker at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland

San Diego (+3.0) @ Oakland (-3.0)
Maybe its just the pessimist in me after so many years of miserable football as a Raiders fan, but I think San Diego is going to win this game. They won’t roll over with the chance to end a hated rival’s playoff chances, and Oakland hasn’t had this kind of pressure in a game in years. I hope, at home, that Oakland rises to the occasion; but San Diego is still a very talented team, and I think they’ll end up breaking my heart.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

Dallas (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
The Giants are rolling in high off of a big “road” win over the Jets, and the Cowboys are coming in low off of an ugly loss at home to Philadelphia. Tony Romo’s hand is injured, the game is in New York, the Giants won last time around. All of these factors seem to be going against the Cowboys, but I think it all adds additional pressure to the Giants. There’s plenty of pressure and motivation on both sides in this one, but I think that Dallas will embrace the underdog role and pull off the upset here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Dallas

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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