Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m holding out.

If one of my favorite players on my favorite team, Drew Doughty of the Los Angeles Kings, doesn’t think $6.8 million a year is enough money to play hockey, why should I write the Dime for FREE million a year?

What’s that you say? I have to actually win something before I can ask for more money? That no one would pay for my terrible picks and lame jokes? That my hair is stupid?

Well, your first two points may be valid, but that’s a cheap shot about my hair.

But come on people, let’s not get personal. I’m being told Doughty’s holdout is just business, so I shouldn’t take it personally.

Therefore, YOU shouldn’t take it personally when I demand you empty out your pockets and send me the contents.

Pocket lint? Your grocery list? Pinkberry loyalty cards where three more stamps gets me a free yogurt?

All will be accepted. And then maybe, just maybe, I’ll keep writing the Dime.

Ah, who am I kidding. I don’t have the heart to holdout. You keep your hard earned pocket lint. I do this for the love of the game, Drew!

But I’d take $6.8 million, too.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 8 – 1 (.467)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 7 – 8 – 1 (.467)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New Orleans (+4.5) @ Green Bay (-4.5)
Buffalo (+6.0) @ Kansas City (-6.0)
Detroit (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay (-1.5)
Tennessee (+2.5) @ Jacksonville (-2.5)
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Baltimore (-1.5)
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Oakland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
Carolina (+7.0) @ Arizona (-7.0) TIE

THE BAD

Atlanta (-2.5) @ Chicago (+2.5)
Cincinnati (+6.5) @ Cleveland (-6.5)
Philadelphia (-4.0) @ St. Louis (+4.0)
Indianapolis (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
NY Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Minnesota (+9.0) @ San Diego (-9.0)
Dallas (+4.5) @ NY Jets (-4.5)
New England (-7.0) @ Miami (+7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick

SIX Philosophy Picks this week! Here’s hoping they return to splendor!

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+7.5) @ Detroit (-7.5)
After one game (Buffalo’s demolition of Kansas City), a bunch of experts are now calling Buffalo a playoff team, and seem to be writing Kansas City off entirely. Really? Should we be doing the same for 7-turnover Pittsburgh? I’m not saying that Buffalo isn’t a good team (I do like the direction they are going in) or that Kansas City will get back to 10 wins (they won’t), but it was one damn game. 7.5 points? I’m very much on board the Detroit-breakout train, they look strong on both sides of the ball and should compete for a playoff spot. But 7.5 points is plenty to make KC worthwhile here; I think the ground game gets going again and they at least keep this one close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Oakland (+4.0) @ Buffalo (-4.0)
I’ve had Oakland circled all week in this spot, but this is one of many picks that fall into the philosophy category this week. One of my rules is to go against teams that beat a division rival on Monday Night when they are playing a non-division rival the following week. The idea is that it will be difficult for the team to match that intensity for a second straight week. Not only does this game fall into that category, but Oakland’s game against Denver was particularly emotional and intense, and Buffalo’s game against Kansas City was easy. Furthermore, Oakland travels to the east coast for an early game that is the equivalent of a 7:00 am PT start time. Love the Raiders’ front seven and think they have a good chance to win this one outright (Hope so!), but too many factors to ignore here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo

Tampa Bay (+2.5) @ Minnesota (-2.5)
I’m not really sure what to do with this game. I’m expecting Minnesota to have a much better game than they did last week against San Diego, but I’m not sure it will matter. Tampa Bay is due for a bit of a step backwards this season, but last year Josh Freeman showed the ability to step up and win manageable games; and I think this is a manageable game for the Buccaneers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Chicago (+6.5) @ New Orleans (-6.5)
Another tricky game; spread makes Chicago somewhat tempting, considering that the defense always tends to keep games close and New Orleans is banged up at wide receiver. But something tells me not only that Drew Brees will have a good game, but that the Saints’ aggressive offense will force Jay Cutler into some turnovers. I’ll take a shot on New Orleans rolling in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Baltimore (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
One of those games that just seem to obvious. Baltimore is coming off of a total domination of the defending AFC Champions, a game in which they forced seven turnovers and dominated on both sides of the ball. Tennessee lost to a Jacksonville team quarterbacked by Luke McCown, and Chris Johnson didn’t do much of anything. Seems like a good spot for Baltimore to win huge, and most of the betting public seems to agree; so I’ll play the role of contrarian and take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cleveland (-2.0) @ Indianapolis (+2.0)
Indianapolis looked awful in their Peyton Manning-less debut last week against a very good Houston team. This week, they get the much more manageable Cleveland Browns, and more importantly, they are at home. Running the new-look offense should be a lot easier without the crowd noise and distraction. After last week’s embarrassing effort, I think the Colts pick up the win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

Jacksonville (+8.5) @ NY Jets (-8.5)
First of a few huge favorites I like this week, I’m taking the Jets. Can’t imagine Luke McCown going on the road and having anything but a dreadful time against this powerful Jets defense, and the offense shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball at home against Jacksonville’s weak defense. Hate giving up this many points on a defense-first team like the Jets, but this seems like a good spot to do so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Seattle (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Last week, Pittsburgh had one of the worst games they’ve had in years, getting completely humiliated by Baltimore in both sides of the ball. Now, they return home, and get to play a very bad Seattle team. I’m expecting the frustration to manifest itself on the field Sunday, and Pittsburgh to totally steamroll the Seahawks as a result.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Arizona (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
Despite their 1-0 starts, I’m still not sold on either of these teams. Normally, I’d take an NFC East team at home over an NFC West team any day; but I don’t think either defense is very good, and I think Kevin Kolb is a much better quarterback than Rex Grossman. I think Grossman falls back down to earth this week and Arizona picks up the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Green Bay (-10.0) @ Carolina (+10.0)
Me, on a 10-point ROAD favorite? Hate it, but can’t resist it. Cam Newton had an incredible debut last week against a bad Arizona defense. Now, he faces one of the NFL’s best defenses, and with the added pressure of his home debut, I’m expecting a lot of mistakes. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers is a surgeon, and should capitalize on any mistakes that Newton does make. Green Bay wins big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Dallas (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0)
This spread looks a little bit like a trap, but considering San Francisco won last week and Dallas lost (with Tony Romo choking late), maybe it isn’t. I think the late meltdown by Dallas last week is taking attention away from the fact that they played the Jets really well most of the game last week, and if they play at that level again this week they shouldn’t have any trouble handling San Francisco. Injuries to Dez Bryant and Terrance Newman are worrisome, but I believe the Cowboys can overcome them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

San Diego (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
I’m not stupid enough to pick against New England EVERY week, but I am stupid enough to pick against them again this week. The defense was suspect last week as I expected; but the offense was impeccable. San Diego’s defense is quietly one of the league’s best, and could slow down Tom Brady enough to let the offense do its job against this vulnerable defense. Plus, New England is coming off of a Monday Night Football win over a rival AND the public perceives them to be invincible AND is betting them heavily. San Diego makes a solid philosophy picks, and the X’s and O’s don’t look terrible either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego

Houston (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
A very proud and good defense, Miami gave up over 600 yards of offense last week, being completely humiliated at home on national television Monday night as they looked gassed and hopeless. Meanwhile, Houston cruised to a simple victory over Indianapolis and has to be feeling very good about themselves this week. Many expect Houston’s dangerous offense to gash the Dolphins’ defense like New England did, but I think Miami has a big rebound game and finally makes their home fans proud.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

Cincinnati (+3.5) @ Denver (-3.5)
I think this spread says it all. Cincinnati beats Cleveland on the road last week, Denver loses to Oakland in an ugly game at home, and yet Denver is still a considerable favorite. The reason? Denver can be better than they looked last week, and Cincinnati is likely a lot worse. Kyle Orton keeps the Tebow chants at bay for at least one week, and Cincinnati makes some mistakes on offense to give the Broncos the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Up there with Miami as the most obvious philosophy pick of the week. Atlanta has an awful game in a horrible loss to Chicago last week, losing by 18. Philadelphia cruises to an easy win over St. Louis, winning by 18. I love a team coming off of a big loss facing a team coming off of a big win. Tack on that Atlanta is a great home team and that the line has moved from +3.0 to +2.5 despite 80% of betting action coming in on Philadelphia (looks like smart/big money is on Atlanta!), and there is plenty to love about the Falcons this week. Like New England, I can’t pick against Philadelphia every week… but I have no choice when my philosophy alarm goes off! Interesting side note: Will be interesting to see how Michael Vick handles what should be an emotional return to Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta

MONDAY

St. Louis (+6.5) @ NY Giants (-6.5)
Week One was costly to St. Louis; not only in the pride department, but in the injury department as well. Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson, two of the Rams’ most talented offensive players, will be out; and Sam Bradford is playing with a bruised finger. The Giants didn’t look good last week against Washington, but at home against a banged up inferior opponent, they should be able to win comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 2 – 2 – 1 (.500)

1. Miami +3.0
2. Atlanta +2.5
3. San Diego +7.0
4. Tennessee +6.0
5. Pittsburgh -14.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 13 – 11 – 0 (.542)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-3/

Iowa -3.0 (WIN)
Nevada -6.0 (LOSS)
Oklahoma State -13.5 (WIN)
Eastern Michigan +29.0 (WIN)
Nebraska -17.0 (LOSS)
Houston -6.5 (LOSS)
Michigan State/Notre Dame Under 52 (WIN)
Arkansas State/Virginia Tech Over 53 (LOSS)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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