Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Okay. 11-18-0 against the spread, 2-4 with my philosophy picks over the last two weeks.

We are definitely approaching meltdown mode.

But not today! Today, the Los Angeles Kings played terribly but won anyway. Today, my three college football picks all won. This is the start to a good weekend!

*Sigh*. Help me out here guys. What’s more pathetic, sadsack beat-myself-up-mercilessly-Dave or sadsack its-okay-I-still-believe-in-myself! Dave?

Should I be self-helping or self-loathing?

I’m going to go with positive this week!

Justice shall prevail! 13-0! I believe in myself! I will not fail! I shall be victorious!

(This hype myself up thing isn’t working. I think I need to go buy one of those self-help books, you know, the one’s that say “You suck at life, but read this book and you won’t suck at it as much anymore!”)

Spoiler Alert: You still suck at life just as much at the end of it.

No books! No bad thoughts! Just positive energy! JUST WINNERS BABY!

(Still not working. Maybe it would be best if I just got on with it already…)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 8 – 0 (.385)
Without the spread: 7 – 6 – 0 (.538)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 35 – 40 – 2 (.467)
Without the spread: 47 – 30 – 0 (.610)
^Philosophy Picks^: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tennessee (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Cincinnati (-1.0) @ Jacksonville (+1.0)
New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina (+6.5)
Oakland (+5.0) @ Houston (-5.0)
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)

THE BAD

Seattle (+9.5) @ NY Giants (-9.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Kansas City (+2.0) @ Indianapolis (-2.0)
Arizona (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
NY Jets (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
San Diego (-3.5) @ Denver (+3.5)
Green Bay (-5.5) @ Atlanta (+5.5)
Chicago (+5.0) @ Detroit (-5.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

San Francisco (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
Normally I pick against teams coming off of wins over division rivals on Monday night like Detroit; but then, I also normally pick against teams coming off of HUGE wins like San Francisco. So, that leaves me in a spot where I’ll simply pick what I believe to be the better team, and that’s Detroit. I like the strides San Francisco is taking this season under Jim Harbaugh, but Detroit is the real deal on both sides of the ball, and at home I think they’ll stay undefeated this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

St. Louis (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
I’ll crash and burn with my philosophy picks, and it doesn’t get any more against-the-grain than taking a hopeless 0-4 team on the road against an undefeaed powerhouse defending Super Bowl champion. My only real hope here is that Green Bay sleepwalks through the entire game. But remember, this is the NFL… any given Sunday, right?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Carolina (+4.5) @ Atlanta (-4.5)
It’s hard to quantify “heart”, but these Panthers under Cam Newton have it. They’re only 1-4, but they’ve covered the spread every week and they play hard for all four quarters. Atlanta? Through five games, I haven’t seen one that has really impressed me. Hard to believe this is virtually the same team that went 13-3 just a year ago. I can’t shake the feeling that Newton picks up his first career road win Sunday, leaving Atlanta’s season in shambles.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Indianapolis (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Funny stat; Cincinnati is 2-12 against the spread in games they are favored in over the last three years, and 0-7 ATS in games they are favored by four or more in. I don’t really buy into trends all that much, but this one happens to sync up with my feelings on this game. Indianapolis has been keeping it close lately, and while I’m actually somewhat of a believer in this up-and-coming Bengals team, I think asking them to cover this big of a spread is a bit much. They’ll win, but they’ll win ugly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Buffalo (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
I’m officially on the Buffalo bandwagon. Ironically, as I mentioned in my NFL podcast this week, I was one of the original members; I loved them in the preseason and said “it’s too bad their in such a tough division, because they are actually quite good”. But EVERYONE was so quick to jump on after just a few games that I had to go being all contrarion and going against them. Well no more, I’m back to believing. But all that said, I’m still picking against them this week. Sad, right? But New York just lost as a 9.5-point favorite, at home, last week. Humiliating. Can’t imagine they’d let themselves get embarrassed like that on their home field again for two straight weeks; especially with state bragging rights on the line. I’ll take the Giants, but please don’t hate me, Buffalo.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Jacksonville (+12.5) @ Pittsburgh (-12.5)
Pittsburgh has been very shaky this season, but if they’ve done one thing well, it’s handle mediocre teams at home with authority, blowing out Tennessee last week and Seattle back in Week 2. My model maps out a 30 – 7 Steelers win here… doesn’t look too far off to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Every year it’s somebody for me, and this year it looks like it’ll be the Eagles. Just can’t quit this team, because I know as soon as I will, they’ll make me pay. It’s like having pocket Kings and the flop comes A 4 2 and you know damn well your opponent has Aces, but you just can’t fold those pretty Kings. There’s plenty to like here about Washington, especially with a full bye week to prepare. But I can’t take them. Not only do I think Philadelphia turns it around, but I also think Washington is a phony. Yes, I said the same thing about Buffalo last week, but I mean it this time. No takesie-backsies.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Houston (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
Houston is without arguably their best player on offense (Andre Johnson) and defense (Mario Williams), and are going on the road to face what is in my opinion the best team in the AFC, who is coming in fresh off of a bye week. This simply isn’t a good spot for the Texans, and there aren’t enough philosophy elements here to make me steer clear of what looks like one of the best plays on the board this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cleveland (+6.5) @ Oakland (-6.5)
Few reasons I’m taking the points on Cleveland; 1. About 80% of bettors are on Oakland, and you know how I love to go against the masses. 2. Last week was an incredibly emotional week for the Raiders, with Al Davis’s passing and that wild game against Houston that came down to the last play. I think we’ll see a letdown effect in this game, with a potential slow start for the Raiders. 3. Cleveland has had the bye week to prepare for a very suspect Raider defense, and they are highly motivated as well coming off of a big loss. This game has the look and feel of a trap game to me. I think Oakland has the talent this season to perservere and win the game, but I think it’ll be closer than most are expecting it to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Dallas (+6.0) @ New England (-6.0)
You could argue that Dallas could be 4-0 if not for a few Tony Romo meltdowns, and that New England’s defense is suspect. Both fair points. But I rarely get the chance these days to get New England at home with a spread of under a touchdown; and furthermore, ol’ Tony is still at QB and probably has another bad decision or two left in him. Think it will be a good game early, but New England eventually overpowers the Cowboys.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

New Orleans (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0)
Probably my favorite pick of the week, I love Tampa Bay in this spot. After losing 48-3, there was little doubt I’d be going with them against an opponent this week looking for a big bounce back game. It doesn’t hurt at all that home underdogs in division rivalries tend to do extremely well. Nor does it hurt that New Orleans will be playing their third straight road game, a fairly daunting task for any team. I also love that most of the betting action this week is coming in on New Orleans. The Saints are the better team, and most Sunday’s they’d win this one; but I actually like Tampa Bay in the outright upset as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Tampa Bay

Minnesota (+2.5) @ Chicago (-2.5)
Tough game to call here. My model leans towards Minnesota, but I still think Chicago has had a raw deal this season with an extremely difficult schedule out of the gate. I think they are the slightly better team, and they are at home, so at only -2.5, I guess they’re my reluctant pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

MONDAY

Miami (+7.0) @ NY Jets (-7.0)
New York has lost three straight, and all week there’s been talks of turmoil in the locker room. Yet bettors and experts alike see them as a lock this Monday night against the lowly, winless Dolphins. I’m not so sure. With Daniel Thomas likely playing, the running game will get a big boost, and on defense I still don’t thnk we’ve seen the best Miami has to offer; and with a bye week to prepare against this struggling New York offense, this might be the week we do. Plus, this team was humiliated on Monday night against a division rival when they played New England; think they want to let that happen again? These two teams always play close, and all the emotional factors go Miami’s way. I’m tempted to take them as an outright upset, but I’ll settle for just the cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Count on me to pick all three of the NFL’s winless teams, huh?

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 10 – 14 – 1 (.417)

1. Tampa Bay +6.0
2. Cleveland +6.5
3. Miami +7.0
4. St. Louis +14.0
5. Baltimore -7.5

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 21 – 1 (.588)

Week 7 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-7/

Stanford -21.0 (WIN)
Arizona State +14.0 (WIN)
Indiana/Wisconsin Over 60.5 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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