Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m going to Vegas for Halloween! Leaving in about an hour so that I can get there in time to bet the morning games.

Because, you know, with the way I’ve been running the last few weeks, betting the morning games seems like a great idea.

I’m excited. Halloween costumes are so much fun! I’ll be dressed as an awful NFL prognosticator.

Tough costume… I just have to get dressed in my regular clothes.

After an incredible and exciting day of college football Saturday, I only hope that Sunday carries the torch into another fun day.

I’d ask for a winning record too, but as quickly as it’s sneaking up, it’s not Christmas yet.

Hope Santa has a crystal ball for me in that bag of goodies when he does come around…

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 6 – 1 (.500)
Without the spread: 6 – 7 – 0 (.462)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 45 – 54 – 4 (.448)
Without the spread: 64 – 39 – 0 (.621)
^Philosophy Picks^: 9 – 12 – 0 (.429)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Chicago (-2.0) @ Tampa Bay (+2.0)
Atlanta (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
Pittsburgh (-4.0) @ Arizona (+4.0)
Green Bay (-9.5) @ Minnesota (+9.5)
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
Indianapolis (+14.0) @ New Orleans (-14.0)
Seattle (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0) TIE

THE BAD

San Diego (+1.0) @ NY Jets (-1.0)
Washington (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
Denver (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5)
Houston (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
Kansas City (+3.5) @ Oakland (-3.5)
Baltimore (-8.0) @ Jacksonville (+8.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Picks

SUNDAY

Arizona (+12.5) at Baltimore (-12.5)
Not only is Baltimore leaps and bounds better than Arizona, but they are coming off of a humiliating loss to an inferior opponent on Monday Night Football. They’ll be fired up to put that game behind them with a big win this week at home, and they shouldn’t have any trouble getting it against Arizona.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Minnesota (+3.0) at Carolina (-3.0)
This is a tough one to call as I still think Minnesota is a bit better than their record indicates, but Carolina has played tough all season and has already beaten two weak opponents (Jacksonville and Washington) at home. I don’t want to go against them here, especially with Minnesota’s tendency to blow leads and Cam Newton’s tendency to finish strong.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Houston (-9.5)
Monday night’s game was so ugly that even with a win over one of the AFC’s best teams last week against Baltimore, Jacksonville is still a big underdog this week. The Jaguars are bad, but they’ve kept games relatively close against tough teams, and Houston is still without Andre Johnson. I expect Houston to win, but could see it being within single-digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Miami (+9.5) at NY Giants (-9.5)
I’ve went to bat for Miami all season, but going against them this week is my favorite play of the day. With Chad Henne and Daniel Thomas out, this team maxes out at around 14 points. Considering New York is at home, coming off of a bye week, and has scored at least 27 points in every game since Week 2, this seems to be a very likely spot for a double-digit victory for the G-men.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis (+13.5)
I promised myself I wouldn’t philosophy pick St. Louis anymore because they seem to be impervious to it, but I can’t help myself here. Not only is a hopeless 0-6 team going up against a fan-favorite powerhouse, but said powerhouse is coming off of a 62-7 blowout win while the Rams are coming off of a 34-7 blowout loss. You just don’t get any more one team coming in high, one team coming in low than that. The reason for a pick like this is human nature; how can a team like New Orleans, coming off of that win, take a game like this seriously knowing how superior they are to this team? In theory, they should come out lackadaisical, and St. Louis should come out fired up to prove to the world that they aren’t as pathetic as they look. Will it actually happen? We’ll find out.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Indianapolis (+9.0) at Tennessee (-9.0)
I was going to pick Indianapolis as a philosophy pick as well this week coming off of the huge loss, but Tennessee got blown out last week too, so they’ll be fired up as well. Still, before that huge step backwards against New Orleans, Indy was at least fighting teams. And Tennessee has looked awful since Kenny Britt went down with two straight ugly losses. They’ll win at home, but I think Indianapolis can bounce back and keep it within a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Detroit (-3.0) at Denver (+3.0)
Last week against Atlanta, Detroit couldn’t afford not to have a running game. This week, I think they can; Denver’s defense is very weak, and Stafford should be able to have a big day through the air. And while Tim Tebow worked his magic at the end of the game last week, he looked awful through the first three quarters; he can’t get away with that nonsense every week. Detroit is still a very good team, and should pick up the win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Washington (+4.0) at Buffalo (-4.0)
Washington already had it’s share of problems on offense, and then they lost two of their best offensive players last week in Tim Hightower and Santana Moss due to injury. Buffalo’s defense is awful, so I still expect Washington to put some points on the board; but at home, with a bye week to prepare and a much better offense, Buffalo should be able to manage a win and cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Cincinnati (-1.5) at Seattle (+1.5)
Tough game when you factor in just how good Seattle can be at home. But Cincinnati’s defense is excellent, and while I don’t think the Bengals are a playoff team, I am sold that they are a solid competitor. They should be able to keep Seattle’s offensive woes going and pick up the road win in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Cleveland (+9.0) at San Francisco (-9.0)
Cleveland hasn’t been able to run the ball at all this year, and against San Francisco’s stingy rushing defense, this isn’t likely to be the week that they start. With a predictable and manageable offense, Cleveland isn’t much of a threat to score much this week; and while San Francisco’s run-and-grind game doesn’t really cater to covering large spreads, I like their chances in a 23-10 type of score.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New England (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (+2.5)
The game of the week, the winner of this one will control their own destiny in the race for the AFC’s top seed. I think New England is the better team, and on a neutral field I’d take them. But their defense is suspect, and Pittsburgh’s has played very well; and with home field advantage, I actually think the Steelers can earn a statement win here. Hard to pass on New England at just -2.5, but my gut says Pittsburgh’s the pick.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Dallas (+3.0) at Philadelphia (-3.0)
Another tough one to pick. Was Philadelphia able to correct all that ailed them over their bye week? Remarkably, Andy Reid is a perfect 12-0 coming off of the bye week since 1999, so the Eagles are hard to pick against here. So what am I going to do? Pick against them. Dallas has looked great this season and is better than their 3-3 record would indicate, and after DeMarco Murray’s big game last week I think the Cowboys will continue to attack on the ground against this week Philadelphia rushing defense. This is a make-or-break game that could easily go either way, but if Philadelphia looks the same as they did in their six games before the bye, they’ll lose this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

MONDAY

San Diego (-3.0) at Kansas City (+3.0)
Not sure if this is just the hopeful Raider fan in me, but I’ve convinced myself that Kansas City will win this game. San Diego is the better team, but what have they done this season? Beaten four lousy teams (Kansas City included) and not looked great doing it. In big road tests against New England and New York, they’ve come up short. The Chiefs aren’t in the same stratosphere as those two teams, but the defense is playing well and the running game is surviving without Jamaal Charles. With a fired up home crowd and a share of the AFC West lead on the line, I think Kansas City will rise to the occasion and pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

MY TOP FIVE

RECORD 14 – 20 – 1 (.412)

1. NY Giants -9.5
2. St. Louis +13.5
3. Baltimore -12.5
4. Detroit -3.0
5. Buffalo -4.0

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 26 – 1 (.587)

Week 9 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2011-college-football-picks-week-9/

Nebraska -4.0 (WIN)
Michigan -14.0 (WIN)
Navy +21.5 (LOSS)
Georgia Tech +3.0 (WIN)
Washington -4.0 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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