2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Divisional Week

By , January 11, 2013

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Hey, I just met you! And this is crazy! But Twenty Thirteen – I love you, baby!

Ugh. “Call Me Maybe” parodies. SO 2012.

But hey, I’m in a singing kind of mood. Last week was a prettay, prettay, prettay good start to the new year.

After going 1-1 straight up and ATS and 1-1 on Over/Unders, it was looking like a pretty normal weekend for me. But late Saturday night, I went down to the Bicycle Casino and entered a $150 poker tournament with 88 entrants. 85 eliminations later, I was the chip leader, and I struck a deal to take home $2900 in cash.

Shortly after getting home, another deal was struck; this one between the NHL and the NHLPA to end the NHL lockout. Indeed, my beloved Kings will be back in action to defend their Stanley Cup Title!

And then Sunday I went 2-0 SU and ATS and 2-0 on Over/Unders to lock up my first winning week here on the Dime since dinosaurs roamed the earth.

Biggest live poker tourney cash, check. LA Kings return, check. Dime back on track, check.

All systems go. OPPA GANGNAM STYLE!

Gangnam Style?!? SO 2012. What the hell are the kids these days doing here in 2013?

Well, whatever those whippersnappers are up to, they’d better watch out. Today, January 11, I turn 27 years old. And 2013 is my year.

At least, it will be if the last week is any indication! I hope you have all had a wonderful kick-off to the new year as well.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Over/Under: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
$Money Picks$: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Playoffs
With the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Without the spread: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
Over/Under: 3 – 1 – 0 (.750)
$Money Picks$: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 162 – 93 – 1 (.640)
^Philosophy Picks^: 12 – 21 – 0 (.363)
$Money Picks$: 34 – 33 – 2 (.507)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

#6 Cincinnati (+4.5) @ #3 Houston (-4.5) UNDER 43
#6 Minnesota (+7.5) @ #3 Green Bay (-7.5)
#5 Indianapolis (+6.5) @ #4 Baltimore (-6.5)
#5 Indianapolis (+6.5) @ #4 Baltimore (-6.5) UNDER 47
#5 Seattle (-3.0) @ #4 Washington (+3.0)
#5 Seattle (-3.0) @ #4 Washington (+3.0) UNDER 46

THE BAD

#6 Cincinnati (+4.5) @ #3 Houston (-4.5)
#6 Minnesota (+7.5) @ #3 Green Bay (-7.5) OVER 46

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

SATURDAY

#4 Baltimore (+9.5) @ #1 Denver (-9.5)
Over the final 11 weeks of the season, no team was more consistently dominant than the Denver Broncos. Covering the spread in nine of those 11 games, scoring 30 or more points in nine of them and allowing 17 or fewer points in seven of them, the Broncos took on and demolished any and all comers, including Baltimore (34-17) back in Week 15. Will the return of Ray Lewis this time around spark this defense into a big upset? It isn’t impossible, and I actually do fear a back-door type of cover with a spread this big. But Peyton Manning is 8-0 SU and ATS in his last eight games against the Ravens (including his last seven in Indianapolis) and the Broncos have punished me every time I’ve picked against them, so Broncos it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
OVER/UNDER 46: Over (31-21 Denver)

#3 Green Bay (+2.5) @ #2 San Francisco (-2.5)
Easily the best game on the board this week in my opinion, and the toughest for me to pick an outright winner in. Both of these teams have the talent to go all the way, and both have a chip on their shoulders after disappointing finishes in last years’ playoffs. I’ve gone back and forth quite a bit on this game, but in the end I keep leaning slightly towards San Francisco. Green Bay has struggled against strong rushing teams, and Frank Gore leads a San Francisco attack averaging 155 rushing yards per game. Sure, Week 1 was a long time ago and both teams have changed quite a bit since then, but the 49ers dominated that game at Lambeau Field and did so with a great ground game. Plus, this defense has had the week off to prepare for Aaron Rodgers, and home field is huge in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers stole this game away in the fourth quarter, but I’ll stick with my gut here and take the 49ers in a great one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
OVER/UNDER 45: Under (24-20 San Francisco)

SUNDAY

#5 Seattle (+2.5) @ #1 Atlanta (-2.5)
Last year, I meant to bet on the New York Giants at 25/1 when I visited Las Vegas in December because they felt like the kind of team that “could get hot and go all the way”, but I forgot to before I left. They were that kind of team, and they did go all the way, and I regretted not betting them every step of the way. This December, I may have made the same exact mistake on not betting the Seattle Seahawks. This team has the perfect make-up to go all the way; an outstanding defense, an elite running back and a quarterback that is developing into a star. Will the Seahawks beat the winner of the Green Bay/San Francisco game AND the eventual winner of the AFC? Maybe, maybe not. But I’m very confident that they’ll beat the Falcons this week. I feel for the Falcons, who have in the past two years been blown out at home in Divisional Week after having amazing regular seasons. They’ll obviously be fired up to make sure it doesn’t happen a third straight time. But fire or not, they match up badly against Seattle; their weak rush defense will have a tough time slowing down Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, and their one-dimensional passing offense plays right into Seattle’s strength on defense. Look for Atlanta’s “curse” to extend one more season as Seattle pulls off the “upset” to advance into the NFC Conference Championship.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle
OVER/UNDER 46: Under (24-14 Seattle)

#3 Houston (+9.5) @ #2 New England (-9.5)
I’m actually not going to spend much time on this one, considering I went 3-13 ATS on New England Patriots picks this season so I clearly don’t have the slightest idea of what to expect from this team. My silly logic for picking them to cover the spread this weekend? Houston’s offense is in a rut (less than 20 points in four of last five games), New England’s defense has played well in December, New England’s offense has played well all year (averaging just under 35 points per game), and the only things that have changed since New England crushed Houston 42-14 a few weeks ago are the Patriots getting Rob Gronkowski back and having a bye week to prepare this time around (both bad for the Texans). Makes sense, doesn’t it? So I’m sure the Pats will find a way to just win by a field goal somehow.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 47.5: Over (34-20 New England)

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 40 – 37 – 1 (.519)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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