Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

The Dime is back!

Ah yes, The Dime. It starts off so pure year in and year out. I’m like a little boy running down the stairs on Christmas morning, and the NFL season is like a beautiful tree with hundreds of beautifully wrapped gifts underneath.

And then I start opening these gifts. A pick-six going the other way here, a backdoor cover against there, an undisclosed injury to the quarterback in this one… until I can’t take it anymore.

I whine. I cry. I throw fits. No more presents, no more Christmas, never again.

But then the days turn to weeks, and the weeks turn to months. And I yearn for these damn games again.

Sure, I’ve seen this story play out enough to know how it ends. Spoiler alert for the 2012 Season:

By Week 10, I’ll be defeated. By Week 15, I’ll never be doing the Dime again.

In February of 2013, I’ll be glad its gone. In March, I’ll be relieved. In April, I’ll start to miss it. In May, I won’t be able to believe the NFL is still four whole months away. And come September… it’ll be Christmas morning all over again.

As long as you all keep reading, I’ll keep writing. Loving and hating every minute of it. So pure.

Here in week one, I’ve got my whole season ahead of me. Maybe this will be the year that it all comes together. While we’re dreaming, maybe the Raiders will win the Super Bowl, too!

Win or lose, I’m back baby!

THE RECORD

(This is the section where I list my total record as the season progresses.)

Last Week
With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

2011 Season Final
With the spread: 124 – 122 – 10 (.504)
Without the spread: 160 – 96 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 22 – 22 – 0 (.500)

With the Spread – I will explain in detail what the spread means for those of you who do not know in THE PICKS section.
Without the Spread – Who I pick to win the game, outright.
^Philosophy Picks^ – If it were as easy as just crunching the numbers, everyone could do it. These are human beings with motivational factors on and off the field. If I make a pick that looks past the stats and more closely at the human element of the game, a (^) will signify that. Hitting over 55% lifetime with these! For more info, check out this video: http://www.davesdime.com/why-philosophy-picks-work/
$Money Picks$ – After being retired for the last few years, I’ve decided to un-retire this feature. While I pick every game against the spread, these are the games that I actually feel strongly about.

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

(Here I will just remind you who I took last week and whether I was right or wrong.)

THE PICKS

*Here is the layout of my picks, and an explanation of how the spread works. Veteran readers can skip ahead to THE REAL THING!, but first-timers or forgetful people should read on. Don’t worry if you’re confused at first, it will make sense as time goes on. Still, I’ll do my best to explain.*

TEAM ONE (+6.5) @ TEAM TWO (-6.5)
The team on the left side is always on the road, and the team on the right side is always at home. I will use this area to provide commentary as to why I’m picking who I’m picking. The number in parenthesis is called “The Spread”. This is how Las Vegas makes money. If you could bet on any two teams on an even playing field, you could always take the favorite, and you would win quite often. With the spread, things are evened out a bit. If you take the weaker team (in this case team one), you are going to be given X amount of points (in this case 6.5). So, lets say the final score to the game is “Team One” 7, “Team Two” 10. Team Two won the game, but not in Vegas terms. Add the 6.5 Vegas gave to Team One, and the score was “Team One” 13.5, “Team Two” 10. So, if you put money on Team Two, even though they won, they didn’t win by enough to “cover the spread” (which means outscore Team One with the extra points), so you lost money. So when you take the underdog (the team with the extra points), you add those points to their final total. If you take the favorite, you have to subtract number X from your total (So in the 10 – 7 game, minus 6.5, Team Two loses 3.5 – 7). The reason numbers usually have .5’s on them is so there can not be a tie. If you’re still confused, don’t worry, it’ll clear up. If you got it, well done!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: TEAM TWO (-6.5)

THE REAL THING!

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicares Money Pick

WEDNESDAY

Dallas (+3.5) @ NY Giants (-3.5)
In one of three big revenge spots this week, the Dallas Cowboys should be chomping at the bit to get their hands on the New York Giants. Not only has this team owned them in recent years, but they also ended their season with a Week 17 blowout last year. How sweet would it be to exact revenge in primetime on the day the Giants lift the banner into the rafters? I couldn’t make this a philosophy pick because the motivation isn’t one-sided; obviously in front of a packed house and raising that banner, New York should be revved up too. But I say revenge trumps pride any day, and the fact that everyone and their mother likes New York to win here makes me like Dallas even more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
I love Andrew Luck, and think he’s going to be a tremendous pro. But a quarterback isn’t an entire team. Indianapolis cleaned house around Luck to start anew, and while I think they will win their share of games this year, I think this is a terrible starting point. Chicago’s defense is still lethal, and with the acquisitions of Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush, I think the offense has the potential to be pretty darn good too. I’ll probably be taking the points with Indy a lot this year, but not this week, as I think the Bears roll to an easy double-digit win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Philadelphia (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0)
When Trent Richardson gets healthy, the Richardson/Brandon Weeden connection has the potential to bring this Cleveland Browns offense back from the dead. But again, I’m not seeing it this week. I absolutely despise giving up so many points on the road, especially on a team that started off last year so poorly. But Philadelphia ended last season very strong, and they are my pick this year to go to the Super Bowl. As such, in Week 1, I have to take them against the lowly Browns, even with the ugly spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee (+5.5)
My first spread-related philosophy pick of the season. Defending AFC Champion and powerhouse offense New England opens as a 7.5-point favorite, and is one of the most popular picks on the board with about 70% of all betting action on them. Yet the spread keeps moving in the opposite direction, with Tennessee down to a 5.5-point underdog at some books with 5.0’s and even a few 4.5’s starting to pop up as well. Rookie QB leading a mediocre team against one of the public’s favorite teams and a perennial spread coverer, and the line is moving AGAINST New England? Something is up here. Is Vegas just seeing a close shootout type of game here? Whatever the case, I’ve talked myself into Tennessee keeping it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Assuming Peyton Manning doesn’t single-handedly lead the Broncos to an 11-win season, my pick out in the AFC West is the Kansas City Chiefs. I think this team has the goods to do some damage this year. That said, they open the season with some key injuries and suspensions on defense, and I’m also expected a very strong regular season from Atlanta this year. Giving up only three points, I can’t pass on this Falcons offense, which should be able to take care of business at Arrowhead.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Flip a coin. In a few weeks, I’ll know more about these teams, but right now I can barely tell them apart. Both are coming off of lousy years. Neither did anything substantial to improve. Both have young quarterbacks. Both have star running backs with issues (Jones-Drew missed the preseason and training camp with a holdout, Adrian Peterson is nursing an injury). Maybe I’m missing something, but I’ll happily take the 3.5 points in what looks like a toss up to me, and I’ll go ahead and take the outright “upset” too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Washington (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Robert Griffin III’s debut has everyone excited, myself included. This spread has been bet all the way down to seven points, and my initial reaction was to take the points too, as it looks on paper like a shootout. But while New Orleans’ defense is far from elite (especially with the suspensions), schematically it is very good at dialing up the pressure and creating turnovers. In a hostile environment going up against an attacking defense, I think RGIII might struggle. Also, Drew Brees and the offense should do just fine. In a statement to tell the league “we aren’t going anywhere”, New Orleans wins big Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Buffalo (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
The New York Jets own the Buffalo Bills. They’ve won five straight (4-1 ATS) against Buffalo and seven of the last eight. But I’m less impressed with trends and more impressed with how Rex Ryan defends against this team. I believe that the Jets are going to have a bounce-back year this season, and I also think Tim Tebow is going to do well in his new role. Will New York get back into the AFC elite conversation? Time will tell. But I do think they’ll beat Buffalo by a field goal or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Detroit (-7.5)
After a shaky offseason with some off the field issues, I have this weird feeling that Detroit is going to take a step backwards this year, even though there isn’t much on paper to suggest that. But they could take a giant leap back and still win this game by 10. St. Louis is a major work in progress, and Detroit’s passing attack and defensive line should have a field day in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Miami (+13.0) @ Houston (-13.0)
HBO’s Hard Knocks has convinced just about everyone that the Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the league. And offensively, they may not be far off. But even after cutting ties with Vontae Davis, there’s enough talent on this defense and in the running game to make this team a six win team. This week won’t be one of those wins. Not only is Houston one of the AFC’s scariest teams this year, but they are healthy again, too. They are also 6-0 all-time against Miami. But none of those six wins have been by more than 10 points, and while it is easy enough to see this one being a 35-10 laugher, I lean more towards a score like last year’s 23-13 Houston win; enough to get Miami a close cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

San Francisco (+5.0) @ Green Bay (-5.0)
I don’t think last year’s San Francisco team was a fluke, and if not for some awful special teams plays by Kyle Williams last year, we’d have had a different Super Bowl Champion. I also believe that the 49ers got better this offseason, adding some nice weapons on offense. Will any of that matter against arguably the NFL’s best team? It’s hard to say. But I have enough respect for Harbaugh and the 49ers to believe that they can make this one the close, exciting game that it aught’ta be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona (+3.0)
Rarely do I put any weight whatsoever into the preseason. But Seattle comes into this game a perfect 4-0 both straight up and ATS this preseason while Arizona’s pitiful quarterback battle led the Cardinals to a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS record this preseason. Pete Carroll has enjoyed success against Arizona in his brief stint in Seattle, and Russell Wilson is about as polished of a quarterback as a rookie can be. Unlike Luck and RGIII, he’s got a pretty favorable matchup in Week 1, and I think he’ll make the most of it with a win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Though it isn’t quite the revenge game that Dallas or two of my next three picks are, for a team that finished well outside of the playoff race, getting stomped by a rookie quarterback and a division rival twice by a combined score of 86-35 is worth circling a calendar over. I’m expecting very little from Tampa Bay this season and think Carolina has the potential to get to eight wins, but on this day, I think the Buccaneers defend their home field and pick up the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Denver (-1.5)
My absolute favorite pick of the week. Last season, after going 12-4, the Steelers went into Denver in the playoffs as a 7.5-point road favorite, only to fall short in overtime when they got “Tebow’d” on the last play of the game. Tebow may be gone, but the animosity towards Denver on the Pittsburgh sideline certainly won’t be. Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks of all time, but Pittsburgh has given him trouble in the past. And furthermore, his audibles at the line are sure to cause some confusion with his new team on game day. I expect Pittsburgh to be completely revved up and focused on both sides of the ball and to win this one comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^*Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Cincinnati (+6.0) @ Baltimore (-6.0)
I have no strong opinion on this game. Cincinnati has given Baltimore some trouble in recent years, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset or a close game in this one. But I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Baltimore handle its business and win by a touchdown as they did in both meetings between these two teams last year. I lean more towards that scenario as I keep coming up with a score like 20-13 Baltimore of 24-17 Baltimore… so I guess I’ll take the Ravens -6.0.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

San Diego (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)
Speaking of revenge, last season the Oakland Raiders were in position to win the AFC West in Week 17 with a win at home over San Diego. But instead of winning, the Raiders were blown out 38-26 and completely embarrassed on defense. Now, with a rematch in prime time on Monday Night Football, at home against the Chargers once again, it is time for revenge. Carson Palmer’s play (last season and this preseason) concerns me, but with a healthy Darren McFadden on offense and a very dangerous defensive line giving Rivers a hard time, I think Oakland gets it done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Oakland

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 3 – 4 – 0 (.429)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-2/

Texas A&M -1.5
Florida International -23.5
Arkansas State -22.5
Ohio -21.0
Penn State/Virginia Under 43.5
USC/Syracuse Over 59.0
Rice/Kansas Over 61.0

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!