Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Oh, hello world. Nice to see that you still exist as I rise from my food and shopping coma.

Best meal of the year on Thanksgiving and best deals of the year on Black Friday. How can you beat that 1-2 punch?

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and that the damage to your waistlines isn’t permanent. It will likely take me about a month of healthy eating to undo the damage, but alas, it was worth it.

After a super long intro last week, I’ll keep it short this week. So without further ado, here are my calorie-packed picks for Week 12.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

Season
With the spread: 84 – 72 – 4 (.538)
Without the spread: 109 – 50 – 1 (.686)
^Philosophy Picks^: 9 – 13 – 0 (.409)
$Money Picks$: 24 – 23 – 2 (.511)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cleveland (+7.5) @ Dallas (-7.5)
Cleveland (+7.5) @ Dallas (-7.5) $UNDER 43.5
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
Cincinnati (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
Tampa Bay (-1.0) @ Carolina (+1.0)
Jacksonville (+15.0) @ Houston (-15.0)
$^San Diego (+8.0) @ Denver (-8.0)
Baltimore (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh (+3.5)

THE BAD

$^Miami (+2.5) @ Buffalo (-2.5)
Arizona (+9.5) @ Atlanta (-9.5)
NY Jets (+3.5) @ $St. Louis (-3.5)
New Orleans (-5.0) @ $^Oakland (+5.0)
Indianapolis (+9.5) @ New England (-9.5)
Chicago (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Houston (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0)
I’ve had it up to here with going against clearly superior teams based solely on what I believe to be a trap line. And even with last week’s ugly overtime game against the Jags and the Lions losing a close one in a solid game against the Packers, this is a trap line, as it is getting very unbalanced action on the Texans. I’m sorry, but I just don’t care. Detroit is 0-8 straight up and against the spread in their last eight Thanksgiving Day games, and is just 4-12-1 ATS over its last 17 games. Houston is a consistent spread-covering and winning machine, is clearly the better team, and doesn’t have much to look ahead to (at Tennessee) next week. I’m sure that now that I’ve finally “come to my senses” the old philosophy trap line will cover, but I have to go with Houston here in what looks like one of the easier ones on the board this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Washington (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
Right on the fence in this one as this pits two fairly evenly-matched division rivals against eachother. These two teams always play eachother tough, and with each of the last three games in the series being decided by three points or less, taking the points on Washington is tempting. But while I would have done so earlier in the week, at this spread I’m comfortable enough taking Dallas. The Cowboys have the superior defense and home field advantage, and have fared well enough against non-elite teams this season. They also tend to play well on Turkey Day, so we’ll see if that trend continues!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

New England (-7.0) @ NY Jets (+7.0)
By this point it is pretty well-established that I don’t have any idea what to do with the New England Patriots against the spread. I’m now an amazing 1-9 ATS in the 10 New England games I’ve picked this year. While I have no clue whether or not the Patriots will cover, I’m fairly confident in the OVER in this game. The total has gone OVER in each of the last six games between these two teams and in each of New England’s last seven games overall. The reason for this is simple, and also why I’m always simply guessing ATS; New England’s offense is sensational but its defense is awful. So whether it’s 35-31 or 41-21, you know points are coming. I defer to my model, which says New England 35+ – NY Jets 24… so Patriots ATS it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
OVER/UNDER 48.5: $OVER 48.5

SUNDAY

Minnesota (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
The Chicago Bears have won and covered the spread in each of the last five games between these two NFC North rivals. They are also coming off of their worst performance of the year last season, especially on defense, and should be extremely motivated to get back on track this week. Oh, and Jay Cutler is returning at quarterback while Minnesota’s most explosive playmaker, Percy Harvin, has been ruled out. Pretty clear choice in this one I’d say.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Oakland (+8.5) @ Cincinnati (-8.5)
I love philosophy picks in which one team is coming in off of an ugly loss and the other team is coming in off of a big win. In that case, shouldn’t I love it twice as much when the Raiders are coming in off of two straight blowout losses (by 35 and 21) and Cincinnati is coming in off of two blowout wins (by 18 and 22)? You bet I do. The Raiders are still mired with injuries, but should be able to at least keep it close against Cincinnati. Plus, don’t you think Carson Palmer will be fired up to play spoiler against his old team? Bengals win, but Raiders hang with them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Cleveland (+2.0)
Pittsburgh is down to its third string quarterback Charlie Batch in this one, and while the running game and defense will keep the Steelers alive in this one, I actually like the Browns. Cleveland has played teams tough all year long, and after years upon years of being Pittsburgh’s whipping boy the Browns can’t let an opportunity like this one slip away at home. I think they’ll be extra fired up with upset on the mind and actually have the defense to pull it off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Buffalo (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
I love taking teams coming off of their worst performance of the season, and Indianapolis certainly is after taking a 59-24 shellacking in New England. Everything points to an Indianapolis win here: the Colts have been great at home (4-1 straight up and ATS last five home games), the Bills have been awful on the road (2-11 SU ans 4-8-1 ATS last 13 road games), and the Colts established that they could beat subpar teams with their four-game winning streak (CLE, TEN, MIA, JAX) prior to last week’s loss. Looks like a bounce-back home win to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Denver (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
If the Oakland/Cincinnati high-low appealed to me, this one has to jump off the page. Kansas City has not only lost seven straight but just got blown out at home last week. Denver virtually clinched the division with a win over San Diego, its fifth straight win and fifth straight game with 30+ points on offense. Does it get any more lopsided than this? We are talking about a double-digit home underdog in a division rivalry game in the NFL. That’s crazy. I’m sure the Broncos will win 31-6 with the way my season is going, but I’m never passing on the hopeless dog in a spot like this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Seattle (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
I don’t really love the idea of making Seattle a money pick on the road, but this one looks pretty safe. I’ve been high on Miami this year, but the reality is that this offense is simply not good enough to give the team a chance to win. Ryan Tannehill is in meltdown mode and there isn’t a strong enough rushing game to lean on to help him out of it. Seattle is a great defensive team and has had a bye week to prepare for this modest offense. In what figures to be a fairly low-scoring game, Seattle will make more big plays on both sides of the ball and pick up the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)
I’ve been tooting the Tampa Bay horn for about a month now, and while some analysis of the schedules around the NFC leads me to believe that the Bucs might fall just short of a Wild Card spot, I don’t think this will be the game to do them in. These two division rivals always play close games, but this year Tampa Bay actually has the talent and the confidence to win a game like this outright. Atlanta is great but is far from invincible, and this is the type of team that can shoot out with the Falcons and maybe even come out on top. I say they will.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Tennessee (-3.5) @ Jacksonville (+3.5)
Some might make the case for taking Jacksonville and the hook at home, coming off of an overtime effort against Houston, against a terrible team like Tennessee. But this line is telling to just how bad the Jaguars are. Tennessee’s offense has actually been solid this season, and as bad as its defense can be I’m not buying last week’s offensive explosion from Jacksonville as something the Jags can replicate. Even Tennessee should be able to handle beating this team by four points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Baltimore (-1.0) @ San Diego (+1.0)
Now that the Chargers have essentially been eliminated from playoff and AFC West contention, they’ll string off six straight wins to end the season. It’s just what they do. I’m half-kidding, but I actually do think that with Norv Turner having one foot out the door and Philip Rivers no longer playing with pressure or expectations, the Chargers will be loose and play their best football. Baltimore, meanwhile, is tense and still has plenty to play for. Look for the Chargers to shock many this week with the upset win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

St. Louis (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)
Just a terrible game between two teams that haven’t won a game in over a month. I could easily go either way on this one, but with Beanie Wells returning, home field advantage and recent dominance in this series, I guess picking the Cardinals is the lesser of two evils.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

San Francisco (-1.0) @ New Orleans (+1.0)
New Orleans has been on a roll lately, but apparent improvement on defense can likely be attributed to some gimmies against Philadelphia and Oakland. San Francisco should be able to run the ball at will on the Saints defense, and while the Saints will find their way into the endzone they aren’t likely to be scoring into the 30’s against this elite 49ers defense. If this one is anything like last year’s playoff game we’re in for a classic, but I believe that the 49ers have gotten better since then and the Saints have gotten worse (defensively).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Green Bay (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
I was already leaning slightly towards the Giants, but the line moving against them from -1 to -3 despite about two thirds of the betting action coming in on the Packers made it official. I feel like these teams are fairly evenly matched, but New York has had a bye week to correct its recent mistakes and to prepare for the Packers, and with home field advantage the Giants should be able to out-shoot Green Bay.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

MONDAY

Carolina (-3.0) @ Philadelphia (+3.0)
When this game was scheduled before the season started, I don’t think too many network execs expected these two teams to have combined for just five wins to this point in the season. But alas, this terrible game must go on. Both teams have been bad, but Carolina at least has shown flashes of solid play; Philadelphia has been flat-out awful for over a month now. With Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy both out and a team that has clearly given up on its coach and the season in Philadelphia, the process of elimination points me towards the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 39 – 37 – 0 (.513)

Week 13 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-13/

Idaho +38.0 (WIN)
Oregon -9.5 (WIN)
Auburn +33.5 (LOSS)
Vanderbilt -11.0 (WIN)
Florida/Florida State Under 44 (LOSS)
Notre Dame/USC Under 46 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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