Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I love doing the Dime. I wouldn’t be going on nearly a decade of putting it together every week if I didn’t.

But every now and then a week comes along where I just can’t get into it.

A pretty normal human reaction to 3-6 hours of unpaid work a week, I’d imagine. These “off” weeks usually come when I’m having a terrible string of losing weeks or I’m in one of my “what does it all mean?” moods.

But no, this week my mood is quite fine, and I’ve had two straight winning weeks. So what gives?

Maybe it’s the fact that the Raiders have leeched the joy out of NFL football for me over the last four weeks in losing a heart-breaker to Tampa Bay and then being outscored 127-47 over the last three weeks? Perhaps, but then, I’m pretty used to the Raiders sucking the fun out of football.

Is it just the time of year? Holidays coming up, stressed about over-eating, anxious that I’m just one month away from making major life and career altering decisions? A possibility.

Yeah, Raiders sucking and life uncertainty could be contributors, but I think the core of the problem comes from the fact that I hate the schedule this week.

Generally, I look at the schedule and about half of the games jump out at me in which I have a strong feeling on one side or the other. A few others strike me as intriguing puzzles I look forward to putting together.

This week, there isn’t a single game that I’m “confident” in. No philosophy picks (not that those have done me any good this year), no game that I’m excited to watch on Sunday.

Just a whole bunch of stuff I don’t really feel like dealing with. Like huge crowds at the mall or the Brussels sprouts that your mother makes you finish before you can have dessert.

Can I just forfeit this week and take an 8-8 SU and ATS record?

Nah… I don’t get paid $0.00 to not deliver! Time to power through.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 6 – 1 (.600)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
$Money Picks$: 4 – 2 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 93 – 78 – 5 (.544)
Without the spread: 119 – 56 – 1 (.680)
^Philosophy Picks^: 10 – 14 – 0 (.416)
$Money Picks$: 28 – 25 – 2 (.528)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New England (-7.0) @ NY Jets (+7.0)
New England (-7.0) @ NY Jets (+7.0) $OVER 48.5
Minnesota (+6.0) @ Chicago (-6.0)
Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Cleveland (+2.0)
Buffalo (+3.0) @ $Indianapolis (-3.0)
Denver (-10.5) @ $^Kansas City (+10.5)
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Tampa Bay (+1.5)
$San Francisco (-1.0) @ New Orleans (+1.0)
Green Bay (+3.0) @ NY Giants (-3.0)
Carolina (-3.0) @ Philadelphia (+3.0)
Houston (-3.0) @ Detroit (+3.0) TIE

THE BAD

Washington (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0)
$^Oakland (+8.5) @ Cincinnati (-8.5)
$Seattle (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
Tennessee (-3.5) @ Jacksonville (+3.5)
Baltimore (-1.0) @ San Diego (+1.0)
St. Louis (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5)
Motivation isn’t going to be a problem for either team in this one. The game is in prime time, New Orleans is fighting for its playoff lives, and Atlanta would love to avenge its sole loss of the season and establish itself as the true king of the NFC South. It’s rare that I split my pick on such a small spread, but I actually do feel that Atlanta is going to win this game by one, two, or three points. Both teams are playing well and both always play close games against each other. Five of the last six games between these two teams have been decided by four points or less. At home, I think Atlanta will edge out a victory to avenge its loss from earlier this month; but it will be by the slimmest of margins. Look for a 28-27 or 31-28 type of score.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

SUNDAY

Jacksonville (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0)
Over the last two weeks, Chad Henne has this Jacksonville offense on a roll with six touchdown passes to just one interception. Buffalo’s defense shouldn’t slow the Jags down, and while the Jags might be vulnerable on defense themselves, I think they can shoot out with the Bills and have a gut feeling that they can beet them outright, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Seattle (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
As Seattle once again re-established last week, the Seahawks are a completely different team on the road than they are at home, and not in a good way. I think Marshawn Lynch will bounce back from last week’s subpar performance, but that isn’t enough to make me lean towards the Seahawks on the road against one of the NFL’s strongest teams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

San Francisco (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)
Well the last time this game was supposed to be a blowout, the 49ers tied the Rams. What happens this week in St. Louis? The Rams are quickly becoming one of those annoying teams that does the opposite of what I pick them to do every week. My model says San Francisco 31-10 and my logic says San Fran by double-digits, so I guess that’s the way I’m going.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New England (-7.0) @ Miami (+7.0)
Somewhere around here, there is a case to be made for taking a seven-point home underdog in a divisional rivalry matchup in December. On the other side of that argument is a Patriots offense that is actually on pace to outscore the 2007 Patriots that was the most prolific offense in the NFL since 1950. Have fun on the Dolphins’ side; I’ll wait until the Pats stop putting up 40+ a game to start picking against them again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Arizona (+6.0) @ NY Jets (-6.0)
I REALLY hate taking the Jets as such a big favorite. Not only does my model have Arizona winning 24-20, but it’s the godawful Jets giving up six points. Alas, they’ve shown they can beat non-elite teams big this season (Buffalo 48-28, Indianapolis 35-9, St. Louis 27-13), and after being nationally humiliated on Thanksgiving last week I think they bounce back with a big performance this week. So, minus six it is. Yuck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Indianapolis (+6.0) @ Detroit (-6.0)
Detroit has, to its defense, played some solid football in recent weeks against good teams and come up just short. Indianapolis has proven to be beatable, especially on the road, and maybe this is a game that the Lions put it all together in and win big. But I simply have to much respect for the way the Colts are playing this season to give up six points to a team that has been so inconsistent on both sides of the ball. I think the Lions come out on top, but only by three or four.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Minnesota (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Both teams are coming off of blowout losses last week, and both are playing for their playoff lives, so everything should be equal from a motivational perspective. With that in mind and everything equal, I think that the Packers should win this game by 10+ points at home. As does my math model (31-14 Green Bay).
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Houston (-6.5) @ Tennessee (+6.5)
Tennessee is one of those “fun” teams that can randomly put together a great effort and give good teams a run for their money. The Titans are also, usually, a team that rolls over and dies when the going gets tough, which it does quite frequently on this bad defense. Houston is due for a convincing win after two straight close games, and if it can avoid “one of those days” from Tennessee, it should come easy enough this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Carolina (-4.0) @ Kansas City (+4.0)
In the wake of yesterday’s horrific tragedy, this game is shrouded in shock and sadness. Events like this make you put things into perspective and realize how insignificant the game of football is, and considering both of these teams are far out of the playoff hunt, there is even less to distract from that point. Before these events unfolded, I was leaning towards Kansas City pulling off an upset in its third straight game at home. I have no idea how what happened will effect the way this game plays out, so I’ll just stick with my original pick… hard to fathom playing a game in a situation like this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Kansas City

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Denver (-7.5)
This game should actually be a lot of fun. Both of these teams have averaged over 30 points per game over the last month and change, and I expect a shoot-out this Sunday. Denver’s clear edge on defense might make them a worthy favorite, but Tampa Bay hasn’t lost a game by more than a touchdown this year and I think the Bucs can keep this one close down to the wire as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Cleveland (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0)
Cleveland has lost 12 straight games on the road. What better chance will the Browns get to break that streak than this one? The Raiders are in complete disarray on defense and have shown no team or individual pride at all in rolling over and dying for three straight weeks. Maybe this week will be different; I’d certainly love to see it. But I’m not holding my breath. This game does provide my only “money pick” of the week on the OVER 39. I think this line is very badly underestimating just how bad Oakland’s defense is. Even Cleveland can manage 28 on this group, and the Raiders can scrape out at least 13 points at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
OVER/UNDER 39: $OVER 39

Cincinnati (-1.0) @ San Diego (+1.0)
I’m probably going to regret this, and I’m still steaming on last weeks blown coverage on that idiotic 4th and 29 play, but I like the Chargers here. All of the pressure is on Cincinnati as the Bengals are fighting for a playoff spot, and they also have to travel cross-country while San Diego is playing its second game in a row at home. The Chargers should be looser and more comfortable, and maybe that leads to an upset over the red-hot Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
Eight turnovers last week? Man, Pittsburgh is hopeless without Big Ben, and that grip on a playoff spot is slipping away with each passing week. Still, 7.5 points in this staple rivalry game? No way I’m passing on that. I can’t see the Ravens dropping this one at home, but I think it will be a vintage ugly 13-9 type of game, just like the one a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh was.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Dallas (-10.5)
Philadelphia is 0-7 straight up in its last seven games and 0-6 against the spread in its last six. Dallas hasn’t covered the spread in eight straight home games and is 3-5 SU over that span. Which of these underacheivers snap out of it this week? I’ll say this; as bad as Philadelphia is, Monday night showed me that the Eagles haven’t stopped playing. They are still trying, as pathetic as it is. Not only will they want a better result in their second straight week in prime time, but they’ll want revenge from their home loss to Dallas a few weeks back, too. As a result, I’ll reluctantly take the Eagles to get a cover with all of these points, but Dallas should win the game easily enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

MONDAY

NY Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Perhaps the one game I’m actually interested in watching this week, it should be fun to see what RGIII can do against the December version of the New York Giants. This one seems destined to be a push as I keep coming up with a score of around 24-21 or 27-24 New York. After last week’s drubbing of Green Bay, I’m thinking that the Giants might be back in playoff mode though, so I can’t pick against them until they show me otherwise.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 39 – 37 – 0 (.513)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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