2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 14

By , December 8, 2012

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Man, the Raiders suck.

I mean really suck.

Granted, they played as well as you could possibly hope for last week, making Peyton Manning settle for four field goals in the red zone.

But they still lost by double digits. At home. Again.

Over the last two 8-8 seasons, Oakland hasn’t really been a threat to do any damage in the playoffs, but at least it was sporadically entertaining and fun to watch. This year’s team has been a nightmare, and has made every week as a fan a chore.

Fortunately my Alma mater, preseason No. 1 USC, will be playing for a National Championship next month!

Er, wait, that’s playing for the Sun Bowl this month. Against a 6-7 team. In El Paso. Hmm.

Oh well, at least I have my DEFENDING STANLEY CUP CHAMPION LOS ANGELES KINGS to watch!

Oh, right, no I don’t. Because the gasbags in charge of the NHL and NHLPA are so caught up in their egos that they are willing to lose the entire season (and maybe more!) over it.

I did say that the Kings winning the cup last year was the pinnacle for me as a sports fan, and that anything else from that point on would just be icing on the cake.

So… I guess I’ll just go have a slice of my icingless cake.

(To all of my Jewish readers, Happy Hanukkah! Enjoy your eight crazy nights!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 8 – 1 (.600)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
$Money Picks$: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 100 – 86 – 6 (.538)
Without the spread: 128 – 63 – 1 (.670)
^Philosophy Picks^: 10 – 14 – 0 (.416)
$Money Picks$: 28 – 26 – 2 (.519)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Indianapolis (+6.0) @ Detroit (-6.0)
Minnesota (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Houston (-6.5) @ Tennessee (+6.5)
Carolina (-4.0) @ Kansas City (+4.0)
Cleveland (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0)
Pittsburgh (+7.5) @ Baltimore (-7.5)
Philadelphia (+10.5) @ Dallas (-10.5)
New England (-7.0) @ Miami (+7.0) TIE

THE BAD

New Orleans (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5)
Jacksonville (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0)
Seattle (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
San Francisco (-7.0) @ St. Louis (+7.0)
Arizona (+6.0) @ NY Jets (-6.0)
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Denver (-7.5)
Cincinnati (-1.0) @ San Diego (+1.0)
NY Giants (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Denver (-10.0) @ Oakland (+10.0)
As any long-time reader of the Dime would tell you, a double-digit home underdog in a division rivalry game in December should be about as clear cut of a philosophy pick as you can get. But contrary to what you may expect, I’m going with the Broncos, and doing so confidently. Over the last four games, while the Raiders have shown how bad they are talent-wise, they haven’t shown so much as a grain of passion or effort. Denver, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency over the course of its current seven-game winning streak on both sides of the ball. The idea of philosophy picks is to see a team will its way into a game even when the X’s and O’s aren’t there… the problem for the Raiders is that they don’t have that will. Look for another humiliating loss as the Broncos win this one by 20 or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

SUNDAY

St. Louis (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
I honestly don’t have much of an opinion at all on this game. Two bad teams with bad defenses and solid offenses, could be a shootout-type of game. I’ll defer to my model on this one, which says Buffalo by a touchdown; and considering how bad St. Louis has been on the road throughout most of the season, I guess that would make sense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Dallas (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
Both of these teams have been playing very well lately, especially on offense. But while Dallas’s offense has been on fire, the defense has been really bad; Cinci has been very sharp on both sides of the ball in four straight games. At home, playing a more well-rounded game, the Bengals should be able to earn a 4-point win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Kansas City (+7.0) @ Cleveland (-7.0)
This one is really tough. On the one hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kansas City have a letdown game after all of last week’s emotion. On the other, Cleveland isn’t built to blow anyone out, and seven points is an awful lot to give up to a team that has played some great teams tough in recent weeks. Since this is striking me as a 14-10 type of a game, I think the points are too valuable to pass up on.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cleveland
OVER/UNDER 38: $UNDER 38

Tennessee (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
As mentioned last week, you never know what you are going to get out of Tennessee. You do know what you are going to get out of Indianapolis and Andrew Luck at home though, and that’s wins. Don’t love giving up the points, but the Cols are certainly capable of handling it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Chicago (-2.5) @ Minnesota (+2.5)
Brian Urlacher’s injury makes this game a lot harder to pick than it was going to be originally, for if anyone can make the Bears pay for any weakness up the middle it would be Adrian Peterson. Not that I am a big trends guy, but the Bears are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games against the Vikings and easily dispatched of them earlier this season 28-10; and did so twice without Urlacher last year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all with a Vikings upset, but I’m sticking with the Bears, especially coming off of last week’s ugly loss at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Philadelphia (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay (-7.5)
Offense, offense, offense. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Tampa Bay’s last nine games thanks in large part to the Buccaneers’ mediocre defense and excellent offense. Against the porous defense of the turnover-happy Eagles, Tampa Bay should easily score into the 30’s; and I actually think Philadelphia can hang. Look for both teams to score plenty as this one sails over 48 points, regardless of whether I’m right about the Eagles covering or not.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
OVER/UNDER 48: $OVER 48

Baltimore (+2.5) @ Washington (-2.5)
Okay, this is it. This is the Philosophy Pick that finally turns things around and gets everything back on track. In one corner, you have a team that should have absolutely nothing left in the tank after playing three straight divisional opponents including the most recent one on Monday night in a bruising, physical game. In the other corner you have a team coming off of an unbelievably ugly loss at home to a Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Motivation isn’t an issue as both teams are fighting for playoff spots; but Washington SHOULD show signs of fatigue in this one and the angry Ravens should take it. Look for a big day on offense for Ravens.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Baltimore

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Not only did Atlanta’s win over New Orleans last week clinch the NFC South for the Falcons, it did so in the most perfect way over their hated rivals and the previous kings of the division. In prime time, while ending Drew Brees’s touchdown record, no less. With three more wins than any other team in the NFC, Atlanta, is quite likely to finish with the conference’s top seed, and the players have to know that. They’ll try to stay focused this week, but I think subconsciously they let up a bit, and a Carolina team that fought them hard last time finishes the job this time around for the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

NY Jets (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
I was going to take the Jaguars because the Jets offense really is that bad, but as I said last week, the Jets have shown all season long that they can handle the bad teams. They didn’t do a great job of it last week, but Arizona’s defense is leaps and bounds better than the Jags. Furthermore, the Jags are a terrible home team that actually seem to play worse in front of their home crowd. Hard to believe I’m actually laying points on the Jets on the road, but I think Sanchez will bounce back with a rare good game and lead the Jets to a comfortable win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

San Diego (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh (-8.0)
Eight points feels like way too many, but Pittsburgh is such a tough home team and the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back this week. Like Detroit, San Diego may finally be done fighting after another heart-breaker last week and a long losing streak; where is the motivation and energy coming from to go across the country into the cold weather for this one? The Steelers should be able to handle this one without too much difficulty.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Miami (+10.5) @ San Francisco (-10.5)
For whatever reason this season, the San Francisco 49ers can not handle the St. Loius Rams. But against just about everyone else, they look quite good. Ryan Tannehill is an accident waiting to happen against a team like the 9ers, and the running game will have trouble mustering up anything against this defensive unit. Miami’s defense is solid, but turnovers will likely once again do the Dolphins in and lead San Francisco to a win and cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Arizona (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
Tough one to gauge. Seattle ALWAYS covers the spread at home, and my model projects a comforable blowout win for the Seahawks around 31-14. But I’m actually thinking more along the lines of 21 or 23 to 14. This spread is clearly at its absolute highest with Seattle’s home reputation, Arizona’s 6-point effort last week and Seattle’s impressive road win over Chicago. Arizona’s defense is solid, and in a division rivalry game I think the Cardinals can muster up enough points to cover. They feel like the “right” side to me at this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

New Orleans (+5.0) @ NY Giants (-5.0)
Both teams are coming off of tough losses to division rivals in prime time, so the anger desire to bounce back strong should be even across the board. But which team will? Many are tempted to go with the Giants at home, and against New Orleans’ awful defense, it may not be a bad idea. But I have a good feeling that New Orleans wins this one. The Giants really look out of sync at the moment, all of the pressure is on them (New Orleans has fallen into the nothing-to-lose category), and Drew Brees just had one of the worst games of his career. New Orleans wins, and the New York press loses its collective mind even further.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Detroit (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
The statistics on this rivalry are staggering. Not only are the Packers 13-1 straight up and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Lions, they are also an astounding 21-0 SU and 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games at home against the Lions. TWENTY-ONE YEARS STRAIGHT. In the NFL, how is this even possible? Detroit has fought teams hard recently, but I think Indy’s last-second touchdown might have been the emotional nail in the coffin. The Packers have been playing great lately (with the exception of that New York Giants game), and should win this one by around 10 to 14.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

MONDAY

Houston (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)
This should be an outstanding game, and obviously a potential playoff (or AFC Championship) preview. New England’s home field is nullified by Houston’s excellent road play. I like Houston’s defense better, but I like New England’s offense better. This game looks about as even as they come to me, so I have to take the points. And when in doubt on which side to take, going with the better defense is usually not a bad idea.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 39 – 37 – 0 (.513)

(Bowl Video Coming Soon!)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio