2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 15

By , December 15, 2012

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Make some picks and hope they’re winners!

Fa la la la la la la la la

Get fat on holiday dinners!

Fa la la la la la la la la

Try to write a song for intro!

Fa la la la la la la la la

Looks like I’ve sunk to a new low.

Fa la la la la la la la la

Man I love this time of year.

Heading to Vegas for a couple of days with the girlfriend this week, having a Holiday party with friends this Saturday, then plenty of time with the family for good food, presents, and laughs.

Maybe, just maybe, the Raiders will actually win a game this week going up against the equally pathetic Kansas City Chiefs.

Maybe I’ll have my first winning week of December.

Hmm, those are some big maybes. At least the Raiders and my awful picks can’t ruin the entire holiday season for me. Only the Sundays.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.600)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 3 – 2 – 0 (.600)

Season
With the spread: 106 – 96 – 6 (.525)
Without the spread: 137 – 70 – 1 (.662)
^Philosophy Picks^: 10 – 15 – 0 (.400)
$Money Picks$: 31 – 28 – 2 (.525)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

$Denver (-10.0) @ Oakland (+10.0)
Kansas City (+7.0) @ Cleveland (-7.0) $UNDER 38
Philadelphia (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay (-7.5)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
NY Jets (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Miami (+10.5) @ San Francisco (-10.5)
Detroit (+6.5) @ $Green Bay (-6.5)

THE BAD

St. Louis (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
Dallas (+3.5) @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
Kansas City (+7.0) @ Cleveland (-7.0)
Tennessee (+5.0) @ Indianapolis (-5.0)
Chicago (-2.5) @ Minnesota (+2.5)
Philadelphia (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay (-7.5) $OVER 48
$^Baltimore (+2.5) @ Washington (-2.5)
San Diego (+8.0) @ Pittsburgh (-8.0)
Arizona (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
New Orleans (+5.0) @ NY Giants (-5.0)
Houston (+3.5) @ New England (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ Philadelphia (+4.5)
Didn’t send out an email this week but took the Eagles on my Twitter account as a Philosophy Pick… shocking, another Philosophy Pick loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Philadelphia (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Philadelphia (LOSS)

SUNDAY

NY Giants (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
Like just about everyone, I’m torn on this one, and it should be a great game. All of the little things point to Atlanta for me though; the Falcons are coming off of an ugly loss while the Giants are coming off of a pretty win, Atlanta is at home, and there could be a lingering revenge factor from last year’s embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. So, Atlanta it is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Minnesota (+2.5) @ St. Louis (-2.5)
The Rams have quietly put together a solid season, especially on defense, and have won three straight. They have the ability to at least contain Adrian Peterson as they did CJ Spiller last week, and at home the Rams have been getting the job done this year. This should be another good game, but I like Sam Bradford to make more plays than Christian Ponder in a winning effort.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: St. Louis

Jacksonville (+8.0) @ Miami (-8.0)
This spread is a bit silly in my opinion. I have been a proponent of Miami all year, but what exactly has this offense done over the last month or so that we should expect a blowout victory in this one? My model actually has Jacksonville winning the game outright. I won’t go that far, but I do think the Dolphins win it by three or four, not in a landslide.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

Green Bay (-2.5) @ Chicago (+2.5)
Isn’t Green Bay EVERYONE’S top play this week? I mean I know I can’t hit one of these to save my life this year, but I’ll say for the millionth time, SPORTBOOKS DO NOT GIVE AWAY MONEY. At least, they didn’t used to. Green Bay is 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread over its last eight games and is on a tear. Chicago is 1-4 SU and ATS over its last five games and is fading fast with Brian Urlacher out and Jay Cutler beat up. The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bears and 8-2 SU and ATS over their last 10. In what world does them being such a tiny favorite make sense? Then it moves from -3.0 to -2.5? This used to be about as automatic of a Philosphy win as they came; this year I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago

Washington (+3.5) @ Cleveland (-3.5)
The Washington Redskins are not a one man team. Well, they kind of are, but let me re-phrase; this team believes in itself, as it showed in its gutsy win over Baltimore even after RGIII went down. Kirk Cousins gets the start this week, and he should do fine. Cleveland is playing great football right now and deserves to be the favorite at home. But I feel like RGIII is going to ask his team to go get this win for him and that he’ll be back next week and they’ll make a legitimate run at this thing… and I think everyone is going to step up and do just that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Denver (-3.0) @ Baltimore (+3.0)
Baltimore is 16-1 in its last 17 games in Baltimore, and the idea of this team losing three straight games (in December no less) just doesn’t sit right with me. Denver has been arguably the best team in football over the last two months, but I think it is fair to ask; who have they beaten? The Broncos lost early-season tests to Atlanta, Houston, and New England and have since rung off eight straight wins against non-playoff teams, with the potential exception of Cincinnati. I’m not arguing that the Broncos aren’t legit, as I believe that they are. But facing a hungry, angry Baltimore team on the road this week just doesn’t seem like a favorable spot to me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Houston (-10.0)
Now above I just mentioned that the Broncos haven’t beaten anyone, but I think they are legit. Indy I don’t think is a legit contender. I think the Colts are a good team performing to the best of their ability every week, which is a feat in and of itself. But over the course of their current 7-1 SU and ATS run, the Colts haven’t beaten a single team with a record over 5-8. In their one real test, they were demolished 59-24 by the Patriots. Houston enters this game coming off of a terrible performance in prime time and should be plenty fired up to lock up the AFC South this week to avoid a potential showdown in Indianapolis for the division in a few weeks. I think Houston will score into the 30’s, and Luck will throw multiple interceptions trying to keep his team close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Quite simply, I think Tampa Bay is the better team in this game. I also think that Drew Brees is trying to do way too much and has had one of the worst months of his career. Can the Saints get it all turned around this week, at home, with suspended players returning? Sure. But I think the alternative is a possibility as well, that Brees’s struggles continue and that the Bucs, backed by a big day on offense, pick up an upset win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

Detroit (-6.5) @ Arizona (+6.5)
All of the emotional factors of wanting to bounce back that come from a long losing streak likely would have kicked in by now for the Arizona Cardinals if they were going to at all. I could make a case for coming off of such a historically bad performance with a big game, but the Lions are also mired in a big losing streak so both teams have pride to play for. Except that the Lions actually have an offense, and have actually been showing some fight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arizona put up a fight, but I won’t pick it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Carolina (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
Both of these teams have been playing better lately than their record would indicate, though both still have their share of problems as well obviously. This one is very tough to call, so I’m just going to go with the Panthers because I think that Cam Newton will be able to rise to the occasion and outduel Philip Rivers; not that that is a particularly exciting occasion to rise to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Seattle (-4.5) @ Buffalo (+4.5)
I actually LOVE the Seahawks today. Their bad road play is well-documented, but they are playing very well right now and are coming off of a win at Soldier Field in their last road game. Buffalo is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS going up against teams with winning records, and CJ Spiller will have a tough task against Seattle’s stout rushing defense. On the other side, Marshawn Lynch should have a field day against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Buffalo is 1-3 all-time in its four games at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and I expect that to fall to 1-4 after today.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ Dallas (-1.0)
Two 7-6 teams both needing a win to make a late playoff push; doesn’t get a whole lot more interesting than this. Dallas actually needs the win more as Pittsburgh will get the chance to take Cincinnati on head-to-head next week. Still, I like the Steelers to win. Dallas hasn’t been a strong home team lately (0-9 ATS, 4-5 SU over their last nine games), and historically this is the time of year the Pittsburgh ramps it up and Dallas crumbles. On a heavier note, the team was able to earn a huge win last week in the wake of their team tragedy, but this is the week that we may see the effects of it, much like Kansas City won against Carolina and then was blown out by Cleveland. This one won’t be a blowout, but I do think it’ll be a Dallas loss.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Pittsburgh

Kansas City (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
The Raiders are a four point favorite? Don’t make me laugh. Sure, Oakland had a solid-ish game in last week’s loss to Denver. And sure, the Raiders are better than the Chiefs, and beat them in Kansas City. But since then, the Raiders have given up on the season while the Chiefs have actually shown fight in a lot of games, last week’s not included of course. Oakland should be able to beat this team of all teams, but I think it’ll go right down to the wire in a game that I already regret that I’ll be watching.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

San Francisco (+4.5) @ New England (+4.5)
After last week’s blowout win over Houston, I officially give up when it comes to Patriots games. I mean what the hell? Struggle with teams like Miami and Buffalo, destroy teams like Houston? Who knows what to think anymore. Actually, the Patriots defense looks like it is coming around, which could spell doom for the rest of the league. Normally, I’d say take the elite defense here against the high-powered offense, especially considering San Francisco’s ability to get to the quarterback. But Brady and Belichick are about as close to invincible as it gets in December at Gillette Stadium, and the way this team is playing right now, I don’t want to take my chances on a kid making his fifth career start.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

MONDAY

NY Jets (+1.0) @ Tennessee (-1.0)
How’s this for a primetime Monday Night Football game? Yuck. Two bad teams here, but the Jets have actually been playing some great defense of late and have won three of their last four games. The loss, of course, being that humiliating dismantling on Thanksgiving Day via the Patriots. New York will want to make a better impression on prime time this time around, and despite their offensive woes, the Jets can handle a team like the Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Jets

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 39 – 37 – 0 (.513)

(Bowl Video Coming Soon!)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Leave a Reply

DavesDime.com by Dave Consolazio