Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sigh.

For a split second there, I let myself believe.

I let myself believe that this was my year. Not to be the greatest in the world or anything silly like that, but just to finish comfortably over .500 for a change. In the past, December was when I clawed my way back UP to .500 after digging a huge hole for myself. But this year, I actually had a huge buffer zone coming into December.

“HAD” being the key word in that sentence.

16-16 straight up, 11-21 against the spread over the last two weeks… fantastic. Back to clawing, only this time to stay above .500 instead of to reach it.

Then Thursday I send out my pick for a Thursday night game that doesn’t exist. Oops. Well at least I was reminded that some of you actually still read this thing! I got everything from polite reminders “It’s a Saturday game, not a Thursday game”, to “cut back on the alcohol” to the one character response, “?”. Thank you all for emailing, that was good for some laughs.

Whatever “confidence” I have is shot. This is usually my favorite part of the year to pick games with Philosophy Picks galore, but those are under 40% this year, so what’s to get excited about?

Alas, I must press on and take my beating. Last week I took a bunch of underdogs and got destroyed, now that I like a bunch of favorites this week I’m sure it will be Dog City.

Such is life at Dave’s Dime.

Merry Christmas!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 5 – 11 – 0 (.313)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 111 – 107 – 6 (.509)
Without the spread: 144 – 79 – 1 (.646)
^Philosophy Picks^: 10 – 17 – 0 (.370)
$Money Picks$: 32 – 30 – 2 (.516)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

NY Giants (+1.0) @ Atlanta (-1.0)
Washington (+3.5) @ Cleveland (-3.5)
Indianapolis (+10.0) @ Houston (-10.0)
Carolina (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
$Seattle (-4.5) @ Buffalo (+4.5)

THE BAD

Cincinnati (-4.5) @ $^Philadelphia (+4.5)
Minnesota (+2.5) @ St. Louis (-2.5)
Jacksonville (+8.0) @ Miami (-8.0)
Green Bay (-2.5) @ $^Chicago (+2.5)
Denver (-3.0) @ Baltimore (+3.0)
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
Detroit (-6.5) @ Arizona (+6.5)
Pittsburgh (+1.0) @ Dallas (-1.0)
Kansas City (+4.0) @ Oakland (-4.0)
San Francisco (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5)
NY Jets (+1.0) @ Tennessee (-1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

SATURDAY

Atlanta (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5)
You should all bet/pick the Atlanta Falcons, immediately. Why? Because I love the Lions today. And what do we know about me over the last three weeks and philosophy picks over the course of 2012? They suck, miserably. You’ve heard it all before; one team coming in very high (Atlanta beating New York 34-0), one team coming in very low (Detroit losing to ARIZONA 38-10). This is even more pronounced by the fact that Atlanta was virtually a pick’em and Detroit was a big favorite. Then you’ve also got the fact that the line has moved down from 4.5 to 3.5 despite the fact that EVERYONE is betting on Atlanta. What the hell? Sportsbooks have been giving money away all season long despite the fact that I’ve been saying they don’t do so. Well, I’m here in Las Vegas on vacation and I, for one, will continue to stubbornly sink with my ship (like Rex Ryan did with Mark Sanchez) and bet my hard earned money on Detroit. Will you sink with me, or do the wise thing and ignore me? My girlfriend says 30-17 Atlanta… she’s probably the smart one here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Detroit

SUNDAY

New Orleans (+1.0) @ Dallas (-1.0)
This one has the potential to be a very fun game, especially if Drew Brees is as sharp as he was last week. I like Dallas for two reasons in this one; the Cowboys have been playing very well, and defensively they have been sharp against the pass all season. I’m still not sold on New Orleans’ defense, and think that the Cowboys at home will make more plays on the defensive side of the ball to eke out another close victory, potentially setting the stage for an epic showdown in Week 17 with the Washington Redskins.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Tennessee (+12.5) @ Green Bay (-12.5)
This is one of those “it’s up to Green Bay” games that are pretty impossible to break down logically or statistically. Considering how much of a roll the Packers are on, and the fact that Tennessee’s appetite for a win should be subdued by that ugly mess on Monday night, I’ll take Green Bay… but coin flips haven’t been my friend over the last two weeks.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Indianapolis (-7.0) @ Kansas City (+7.0)
So over the last two months, we’ve seen a very clear trend with the Indianapolis Colts; they crush bad teams and cover the spread against them (7-0 SU and ATS) and they lose to elite teams big (0-2 SU and ATS). Coming off of a 15-0 loss to the Oakland Raiders, which category would you put Kansas City in, “bad” or “elite”? Exactly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Buffalo (+4.5) @ Miami (-4.5)
This is a pretty standard philosophy pick, and one I actually don’t disagree with myself on for a change. Buffalo is coming in off of a 33-point loss while Miami is coming in off of a 21-point win. Furthermore, it is a division rivalry game in December, and it isn’t that hard to see CJ Spiller having a big day against the Fins. Miami is the better team, but this Sunday I think the Bills can find a win down in warmer climates.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo

San Diego (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
LOL. That’s really all you can do with this game, laugh at it. It’s not just that these two teams are bad, they are laughably bad, always finding cool and exciting ways to embarrass themselves and lose. But, since they can’t both lose, we need to pick a winner. At home looking to bounce back from another national television humiliation, and with a new quarterback under center, I think the Jets can rally together and win this game. Or have it handed to them by the Chargers in some odd fashion, but you know what I mean.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets

Washington (-6.5) @ Philadelphia (+6.5)
Considering the fact that I just lost on a philosophy pick taking Philadelphia for the exact same reasons I’m about to last week, and the fact that I’m just 37% on these this year, I’m finally taking the “money pick” out of philosophy pick on this one. Having said that, I am still making the pick. Not only are the Eagles coming in off of a blowout loss and the Redskins on a blowout win (and five straight wins to boot), but all of the pressure is on Washington here while Philadelphia can play loose. The Eagles also disappointed their home crowd last week and would love to get redemption and play spoiler this week. Sadly, the Eagles are so awful at protecting the football and making opponents pay for mistakes that they will probably lose this one too… but I’m still picking them to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Recent play points entirely to Cincinnati. The Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games and could easily be 6-0 if not for a late collapse against Dallas. Pittsburgh meanwhile hasn’t looked sharp at all and has lost two straight overall and at home. History points clearly to Pittsburgh though, as the Steelers have dominated the Bengals in recent years and have also dominated at home in recent years, and also seem to kick in to another gear in December. So what prevails, history or recent play? As much as I tend to ignore trends, my gut tells me history, and that the Steelers will make the playoffs with a win this week and next week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

St. Louis (+3.0) @ Tampa Bay (-3.0)
This is a very interesting game between two teams that are very close in terms of where they are at right now. Both teams lost in blowouts last week and have coaches that should have them fired up to perform much better this week. I’m taking Tampa Bay strictly due to home field advantage in this one. Another coin flip in my opinion, so here goes nothing.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

Oakland (+8.5) @ Carolina (-8.5)
Good job, bookmakers! They are not fooled by Oakland’s silly “shutout win” last week over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders’ defense isn’t magically all better, it just got a fantastic matchup against a truly pitiful offense last week. This week, the Raiders will have no answer for Cam Newton, who has been surging over the last few weeks. Can Oakland do enough on offense to cover the spread? Possibly… but I’m not banking on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

New England (-14.0) @ Jacksonville (+14.0)
Another “It’s up to New England” game that can’t really be broken down. I’d love to make a case for taking a home underdog in the NFL of 14 points, but 14 points is nothing if New England comes out as angry as I expect them to after last week’s December loss at home. But who knows? Not only have coin flips been bad to me recently, but New England has been consistently bad to me all season long. Damned if I do, Damned if I don’t, I guess I’ll take the stupid Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Minnesota (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
Maybe I’m just caught up in the Adrian Peterson hype (which may end after this week going up against Houston’s stout rushing defense), but nine points feels like too many for a team fighting for its playoff life and coming off of a very strong performance. Houston has home field throughout the playoffs all but locked up needing only one win this week or next week, and while I think they get that win this week it may be by only a touchdown or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Cleveland (+12.5) @ Denver (-12.5)
Denver has been a well-oiled machine over the last two months, and I fully expect the Broncos to win their last two games and earn their first-round bye. But after stomping Baltimore last week, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took their foot off the gas a little this week against a team they should easily beat. And as bad as Cleveland looked last week, the Browns are a team that fights hard week in and week out. I see a final score of around 27-17 Denver, with Cleveland sneaking in a cover with this big spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Chicago (-6.0) @ Arizona (+6.0)
Chicago feasts on bad teams, and Arizona is a bad team. Granted, the Bears are playing terribly right now and the Cardinals just found a way to win big against Detroit, but the Bears should be able to manage around 20 points in this one, and that should really be more than enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

NY Giants (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5)
It’s hard for me to imagine either of these teams losing this game at this time of the year, but one of them has to. My gut says that Baltimore wins it. Neither team has looked all that great recently, and in a game like this I actually think that home field could be very relevant. The Ravens haven’t been themselves at home lately, but after last week’s disappointing performance at home against the Broncos, I think they bounce back and find a way in this one, even if that means the end of the line for the Giants.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

San Francisco (+1.0) @ Seattle (-1.0)
Seattle’s home dominance is well documented (6-0 SU and ATS at home this season, 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games), but then San Francisco is pretty damn good on the road to as evidenced in last Sunday night’s win over New England. While I think San Francisco is the slightly better team, this game comes down to timing for me. Seattle has won two straight games in blowout fashion without really needing to break a sweat. The 49ers, meanwhile, are coming in off of a grueling game on the other side of the country in which they left everything on the field. I think the Seahawks will be a little fresher, and at home, that will be enough to make the difference in what should be a very physical game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 39 – 37 – 0 (.513)

(Bowl Video Coming Soon!)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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