Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well if it isn’t my old friend 8-8.

Nothing says “I’m an expert” like 8-8. Nothing says “I’ve been doing this for over 10 years” like 8-8. Nothing says “My crunching numbers, evaluating roster moves and making logical deductions based on positional strengths and weakness as well as projected emotional motivations is more valuable than flipping a coin” like 8-8.

Oh 8-8.

In the good ol’ days, it was 8-8 + philosophy picks. Philosophy picks deserved their own category, because unlike 8-8 and his buddy 50%, philosophy picks were 60% winners.

But over 2010 and 2011, philosophy picks went 39-42. That looks an awful lot like my .500 buddy 8-8, doesn’t it?

I thought maybe 2012 would be a resurgence for philosophy picks. After an 0-3 start, I’m a bit less enthused.

What was once my calling card is now just another version of 8-8. It’s like paying more for fancy packaging when you are getting the same product. Philosophy picks are like Fruit Loops and the rest of my picks are like generic fruity-o’s.

Yet despite my proven track record of mediocrity, you all still love me.

This is what I tell myself, anyway. In actuality, I think that 2% of you love me, 70% of you ignore me, 8% of you like laughing at my misfortune and 20% of you hate me but are kind enough not to let me know.

That, in my sad brain, equals 100% love.

Thinking of changing the motto. Dave’s Dime: “Because two cents just isn’t enough” should be Dave’s Dime: “Because a dime flips just as well as any other coin.”

So with that, let’s get to flippin’!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 3 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

Season
With the spread: 8 – 8 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^Philosophy Picks^: 0 – 3 – 0 (.000)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Dallas (+3.5) @ NY Giants (-3.5)
Indianapolis (+9.5) @ Chicago (-9.5)
Atlanta (-3.0) @ Kansas City (+3.0)
Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Buffalo (+2.5) @ NY Jets (-2.5)
San Francisco (+5.0) @ Green Bay (-5.0)
Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Cincinnati (+6.0) @ Baltimore (-6.0)

THE BAD

Philadelphia (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0)
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee (+5.5)
Washington (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
St. Louis (+7.5) @ Detroit (-7.5)
Miami (+13.0) @ Houston (-13.0)
Seattle (-3.0) @ Arizona (+3.0)
Pittsburgh (+1.5) @ Denver (-1.5)
San Diego (+1.0) @ Oakland (-1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Chicago (+5.0) @ Green Bay (-5.0)
I’m torn on this one. I respect the Chicago Bears and expect them to do well this season, so it would make sense to take the points here. On the other hand, I think the Green Bay Packers are still a tier above them in the NFC’s elite, and I’m having a lot of trouble not seeing the Packers bounce back from a Week 1 loss at home with a huge effort in prime time this week. Of course, motivation won’t be a problem for Chicago either, as the Bears could take a commanding 2-0 lead in the NFC North with a win here. I’ve gotta go with the Packers; a loss at home to another team in the NFC elite (San Francisco) last week doesn’t negate Green Bay’s status as a titan, and a win at home over a team that finished 2-14 last season (Indianapolis) doesn’t move Chicago up the ladder. This game might, but I’m expecting Jay Cutler’s struggles against the Packers to continue and for Green Bay to send their home fans happy this time with a win by a touchdown or more in what should be a fun shootout type of game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)

SUNDAY

Kansas City (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
I joked about coin-flipping in the intro, but with this game, you might as well. Both coming off of ugly losses in which they gave up 40+ points on defense, both have capable offenses, both came into this season with high hopes. Like last week’s Jacksonville/Minnesota game (which went to overtime), I see very little separating these two teams. As much as I tend to ignore trends, Buffalo is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up in its last four games against Kansas City. That, plus home field, is a good enough tiebreaker for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Cleveland (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0)
Another toughie, but only due to the point spread. I’m fairly certain Cincinnati wins this one at home, but Cleveland just got done covering the spread with an excellent defensive performance against Philadelphia. I have to go with Cincinnati here due to the fact that Brandon Weeden was so awful last week that I’m just not ready to put my faith in him on the road against a tough defense coming off of a lousy performance. Looking for more turnovers from him this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Minnesota (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
Not sure why I’m so confident in this one, especially considering Minnesota has the best player on the field in Adrian Peterson. But for as bad of a matchup as last week was for Andrew Luck on the road at Soldier Field, getting this weak Minnesota team at home is an excellent one. The Vikings have a solid pass rush and it isn’t necessarily a super soft defense, but with the home crowd behind him I just have this gut feeling that Luck has a huge day in his home debut and leads the Colts to a big win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Indianapolis

New Orleans (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
They don’t get any easier going down this list. On the one hand, this feels like a trap line to me, because New Orleans doesn’t ever lose back-to-back games and Drew Brees would never let the Saints fall to 0-2, would he? But on the other hand, from an X’s and O’s perspective, why should Carolina be a bigger underdog? Robert Griffin III shredded this Jonathan Vilma-less defense in their own building, why shouldn’t Cam Newton do the same in his own? I wish I were getting more points for making what I believe is a really bold pick, but I think the Panthers win this one in a shootout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Houston (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)
Not thrilled with the prospect of giving up a touchdown to a division rival on the road. But the Houston Texans, when healthy, are this good. With an elite offense and a defense that is getting close to that upper echelon as well, the Texans should be a pretty consistent spread covering team this season. They crushed Miami last week with less than their best effort, and shouldn’t need much better this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Oakland (-2.0) @ Miami (+2.0)
Yuck. Just yuck. I said before the season started that Oakland had a shot at an 8+ win season if everyone stayed healthy, and injury reports this week announce that star wideout Jacoby Ford is done for the year and the razor-thin secondary lost its best cornerback in Ron Bartell. So much for healthy. It’ll probably be a long season for the Raiders, but it might be an even longer one for the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill was interception-prone in college, and it’ll take him more than two NFL games to buck that trend. Look for Oakland’s defensive line to force Tannehill into some bad decisions, and for the return of Denarius Moore to spark the offense just enough to earn the Raiders a (likely rare) win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Arizona (+13.5) @ New England (-13.5)
I love this line. Vegas (and I) get burned by the Patriots last week, so they go ahead and respond by making them a two-touchdown favorite this week. I love being on the anti-square side, but I can’t talk myself into Arizona this week like some apparently have. There isn’t much you can do but take a guess in these games. We know New England is going to score into the 30s. Will Arizona do enough to cover? If they do, good for them. I’m going with the Pats.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
Pretty much the exact same scenario we saw in the Chicago at Green Bay game with one team coming in high off of a big win and the other coming in angry after a big loss at home in their season opener. I expect the same result here. New York has had an extra couple of days to stew over having their Championship celebration ruined back in Week 1, and this week the Giants should be sending their fans home happy with a double-digit bounce-back win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
This one is a bit of a philosophy omelette. 1. I always tend to go against a team coming off of a Monday night win against a division rival when they are playing a non-divisional opponent the following week, and Philadelphia isn’t even in the AFC. 2. Baltimore is coming in off of a near-perfect performance while Philadelphia looked downright awful last week. 3. The Eagles opened as a 1-point favorite, the Ravens are receiving 80%+ of the betting action and Philadelphia has moved to -2.5. I know I’m off to an 0-3 start with these things, but this is the kind of game I absolutely adore.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia

Washington (-3.5) @ St. Louis (+3.5)
The line on this game has finally moved to 3.5 after being stuck at 3.0 through most of the week. The minute I saw this opening line I knew I was going to be taking St. Louis. The Rams went 2-14 straight up and 3-13 ATS last season, and while they did cover the spread last week against Detroit, one close loss isn’t going to change the public’s perception of them. The Redskins, on the other hand, were arguably the biggest story of the week after Robert Griffin III went into New Orleans and shredded the Saints. How can a star quarterback and instant public favorite that just led his team to 40 points and an 8-point win over New Orleans be only a three-point favorite against the lowly Rams? Everyone and their mother likes the Redskins in this game at this line, meaning I’ve got to be on the other side.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

Dallas (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
Can pretty much copy and paste the blurb above here. Dallas goes into New York and imposes its will on the defending Super Bowl Champions. This week, they face a team with a rookie quarterback coming off of a loss to the very bad Arizona Cardinals. Why did this spread open so low and why hasn’t it moved with over 80% of action coming in on Dallas? Washington being a trap line is somewhat debatable, but I don’t think this one is.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

NY Jets (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Going by my standard Jets coming in high, Pittsburgh coming in low logic, I do think the Steelers are going to win this game at home to avoid falling to 0-2. But will they cover this spread? The last four games between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, and that makes sense considering how defensive minded these teams are. With Darrelle Revis out, Pittsburgh could have a big day offensively and cover the spread here. But I lean towards this being a 17-13 or 20-17 type of game, so I’ll take the points and hope for the best.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tennessee (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Since 1996, the Chargers are a perfect 7-0 both straight up and against the spread in seven games against Tennessee. Again, I don’t care much about trends, but that is a tough one to ignore. I will ignore it though; New England makes everyone look bad, and San Diego looked unspectacular in the Raiders giving the game away Monday night. Kenny Britt’s return should help the Titans, too. The Chargers should win, but I think this will be a three or four point game as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Detroit (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)
Taking the points, but expect the favorite to win. Getting any de ja vu? I’m actually very high on San Francisco and anticipating a step back from Detroit this season, so I’m a bit surprised I don’t like the 49ers here. But many games come down to how styles of play mash up, and both of these teams are gritty, physical teams. Detroit’s lack of a running game concerns me, but no one can run on San Francisco anyway. Again, this one just feels like it should be a close game to me, so getting a full touchdown I’ve gotta go with the Lions.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

MONDAY

Denver (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
This game should be a ton of fun to watch. Peyton Manning was back in top form last week, and Matt Ryan commands a very dynamic passing game himself. The injury to Falcons star cornerback Brent Grimes makes me like Atlanta a bit less in this game, but during the last four regular seasons, this has been one of the best home teams in the entire NFL. Manning’s no huddle offense worked beautifully at home, but will his new teammates pick up all of his audibles and subtleties in a hostile environment? Unlike Pittsburgh, Atlanta isn’t afraid to abandon the run and throw the ball as necessary, which I think will aid them in winning what should be a close and entertaining game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 9 – 12 – 0 (.429)

Week 3 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-3/

TCU -21.0 (LOSS)
Auburn -16.5 (LOSS)
Alabama -21.0 (WIN)
Ohio -6.0 (LOSS)
USC -8.0 (LOSS)
UCLA -17.0 (WIN)
UL Lafayette/Oklahoma State Over 73 (WIN)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!