2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 3

By , September 20, 2012

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, I finally did something right last week.

No, not against the spread. 8-6-2, sure, that’s not bad. Especially for me!

But the real number to behold is 14-2 without the spread.

Last week was probably my best week ever in the pick’em format. I may have reached 14-2 once before, but with four outright wins picked by less than 20% of the public (Philadelphia, Carolina, Seattle, and St. Louis), that was a TOUGH 14-2.

I laughed and cheered when Gostkowski missed that chip-shot kick to cost New England the game against Arizona, but in hindsight I REALLY wish that had gone in.

There would be something so pure and poetic about going 15-1 straight up with the only loss coming in the form of backing my awful Raiders as they get blown out by 22.

I get misty eyed just thinking about it.

But alas, 14-2 ain’t half bad. Now I finally have validation for the Dime!

When historians look back and find this newsletter hundreds of years from now, Historian A will say “what is this filth? What trivial garbage.”

Historian B will say “Yeah, it is, but at least he had that one big week in Week 2 in 2012. That was something.”

That’s right. Take that, Future Historian A! Future Historian B, a beer (or whatever you guys drink) to you good sir/madame.

For an encore, I’ll probably go 8-8 this week. But I sure as hell won’t be picking the Raiders again.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 2 (.571)
Without the spread: 14 – 2 – 0 (.875)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)
$Money Picks$: 3 – 1 – 1 (.750)

Season
With the spread: 16 – 14 – 2 (.533)
Without the spread: 24 – 8 – 0 (.750)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 4 – 0 (.333)
$Money Picks$: 5 – 4 – 1 (.556)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Chicago (+5.0) @ Green Bay (-5.0)
Kansas City (+3.0) @ Buffalo (-3.0)
Minnesota (-3.0) @ Indianapolis (+3.0)
New Orleans (-3.0) @ Carolina (+3.0)
Houston (-7.0) @ Jacksonville (+7.0)
Washington (-3.5) @ St. Louis (+3.5)
Dallas (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
Denver (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
Tampa Bay (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0) (PUSH)
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Cincinnati (-7.0) (PUSH)

THE BAD

Oakland (-2.0) @ Miami (+2.0)
Arizona (+13.5) @ New England (-13.5)
Baltimore (+2.5) @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
NY Jets (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Tennessee (+7.0) @ San Diego (-7.0)
Detroit (+7.0) @ San Francisco (-7.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

Not too confident this week, lots of tough matchups… but here goes nothing!

THURSDAY

NY Giants (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
Already loved Carolina tonight, and this late betting surge on them to move the line down only makes me feel more confident as “sharp money” is coming in on the Panthers. In a nutshell, both of these teams have great quarterbacks and the ability to put up a lot of points in a hurry. But the Giants haven’t shown any ability to stop anyone on defense through two games this season, while the Panthers have actually performed quite well on defense. I like the Panthers to make a few more stops in what figures to be a shootout and to pick up the win at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

SUNDAY

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Chicago (-7.5)
This is one of many games that I’m torn on this week. With the Bears coming off of that awful loss to Green Bay, I get the feeling we’re going to see their best effort this week, which should be enough to win this one big. On the other hand, the Rams have me convinced that they are a new team, and I don’t really want to give them this many points. But with them coming off of the crazy roller coaster win I suppose a letdown is possible. I lean ever so slightly towards the Bears
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Dating back to last year, the Buffalo Bills were awful on the road. And like St. Louis, I’m actually impressed with the two game sample size of the Browns. Sure, they were both losses, but they looked great on defense in their first game on solid on offense in their second. I think against a beatable team, at home, the Browns can put it all together this week and pick up their first win of the year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Tampa Bay (+8.5) @ Dallas (-8.5)
These big home favorite games have been killing me all year. Coming off of an awful performance against Seattle, I’m sure Dallas will bounce back with a good performance in their home opener. But will they blow the Bucs out? It’s possible, but Tampa Bay has proven to be a fighter so far, too. I’m not quite ready to lay this many points on the Cowboys, so I’ll reluctantly go with the Buccaneers ATS.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

NY Jets (-2.5) @ Miami (+2.5)
Throw out Miami’s second quarter collapse against Houston, and the defense has actually been outstanding. The Jets get Darrelle Revis back this week, and shouldn’t have too much trouble limiting this Dolphins offense. I’m expecting a 13-10 or 17-13 type of score, but I’m not sure in who’s favor. I’m guessing the Jets draw up enough pressure to force Tannehill into a mistake or two that ends up being the difference. I’ll take the Jets, but will also make my first “money pick” on an over/under this year with the Under 41.5.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Jets
OVER/UNDER 41.5: $UNDER 41.5

San Francisco (-7.0) @ Minnesota (+7.0)
90% of the public is on San Francisco -7.0 here. Who can blame them? The 49ers went into Green Bay and stomped the Packers, then followed that up with a thoroughly dominating defensive performance against Detroit. This looks like the team to beat in the NFC, but every team has off games. Coming off of two straight emotional and physical games and scheduled to play another tough defense in the New York Jets next week, this game looks like the perfect spot for the 49ers to have an off-day. They’ll probably win the game late, but look for it to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting it to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans (-8.5)
Both of these teams have looked tragically bad on defense to start the season, each giving up 75 points through two games in two losses. The difference here is that the Saints are at home and have the more potent offense. It might end up being a shootout in which Kansas City keeps the game within a touchdown, but I think the Saints out-shoot the Chiefs and eventually pull away with a double-digit win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
This one is really tough to call. Like the two teams above, these two teams have plenty of question marks on defense. I also like both of these offenses and young quarterbacks. I’m torn on this one, but I lean towards the Redskins for home field advantage. Not only will the crowd be going wild for RGIII’s home debut, but these replacement refs are bound to get rattled by it and send a few calls Washington’s way. It’s the sad reality we live in with scab refs, and this is the kind of game that it might be the difference in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
I’ve flip-flopped on this game quite a bit. I hate what I’ve seen from Tennessee this year, but home against New England and at San Diego are tough spots. And I came into the year expecting Detroit to take a step backwards, and so far it looks like they have. But Tennessee has just been awful on both sides of the ball, and this Detroit front seven should continue to make Jake Locker and Chris Johnson’s lives difficult. I don’t love having so many road favorites this week, but I think I’d feel worse about having Tennessee.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
I could go either way on this one, and was tempted to take Jacksonville considering everyone loves Indy this week. But I believe that Andrew Luck is going to lead his team to wins in these coin-flip type of games, and Blaine Gabbert has done nothing in his NFL career to make me feel very inspired to take this team on the road with only three points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
Kevin Kolb or John Skelton? It doesn’t matter if the Arizona Cardinals’ defense is going to play this well. The win over Seattle looks even better after Seattle’s blowout win over Dallas, and the New England game may have required some luck late but it is still extremely impressive. Can Philadelphia beat Arizona? Of course. In fact, if they play their best, they probably will. But the Eagles have started off 2012 with the same nonchalance that they started 2011 off with, and Arizona is brimming with confidence. At home, they can win this game, or at the very least keep with the tradition of losing to the Eagles by one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Atlanta (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
If it weren’t for the fact that Atlanta was traveling cross country and San Diego was playing its second straight game at home, I’d have Atlanta as a money pick. But even with those factors going against them, I still love the Falcons. Atlanta has looked strong on both sides of the ball through two weeks. So has San Diego, but against miserable competition in Oakland and Tennessee. With Norv Turner’s annual slow starts, this right here is the game that San Diego always loses. It is like clockwork. Maybe the Chargers will prove me wrong this year, but I think a solid team like the Falcons exposes San Diego’s weaknesses and picks up the win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Houston (-1.5) @ Denver (+1.5)
This should be a great game. Two of the best quarterbacks in the game and to very underrated defenses. I’m tempted to take the Broncos now that they are back at home, but I think Houston is the better team. I like the defense better, I like their versatility on offense, and I like that they are the same team they were last year; Denver is still getting accustomed to Mannings’ no-huddle offense. Denver might be more up-to-speed in this game with tougher competition through the first two weeks, but I can’t pass on the Texans at such a low spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland (+3.5)
Expecting a philosophy pick here? Well lump me in with every other square looking for free money in this game. James Harrison and Troy Polamalu being out hurts Pittsburgh’s defense, yes. Darren McFadden is due for a big game, yes. But explain this to me; who is going to stop Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace? The Raiders came into the year with one of the worst starting cornerback tandems on paper in the league, Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer, and BOTH are out injured. A team with no depth at its worst position doesn’t have its two starters, going up against a great passing attack. If Pittsburgh finds a way to lose this game, I’ll be thrilled as a Raiders fan. But even if the Steelers give up, say, 27 points (unlikely), they’ll still probably score more than enough to cover such a small spread. Think you know my Raiders better than me Vegas? Try me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

New England (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
This was a game I had circled at the start of the season as a philosophy lock with Baltimore looking for revenge for last year’s loss in the AFC Championship. But with New England’s catastrophic loss to Arizona last week, the Patriots are also going to be extremely fired up in this game, making the “motivation gap” a lot more negligible. I’m going to stick with my pick because I feel that revenge is the biggest motivator in the NFL, and that Aaron Hernandez’s injury is a very big deal for New England; but I’m no longer in love with the pick, especially at -3.0.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MONDAY

Green Bay (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0)
I actually like Seattle quite a bit as a team this year, and wasn’t surprised by last week’s upset over Dallas as those of you reading know. But making the Packers such a small favorite? I don’t believe it is a trap line at all, considering Seattle just won that big game last week; I think it has more to do with the fact that Green Bay’s offense hasn’t looked spectacular through the first two games. Seattle is absolutely good enough to make this a game with the home crowd behind it, but I’ll gladly take my chances on Aaron Rodgers on Monday night giving up only three points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 9 – 12 – 0 (.429)

Week 4 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-4/

Wisconsin -17.5
FAU +49.5
LSU -20.0
Oklahoma -14.0
Arizona/Oregon Over 77.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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