Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

With the referee lockout coming to an end, it looks like we can finally get back to focusing on football instead of referees.

I don’t even need to get into how screwed over the Packers (and I) got by the bootleg referees Monday night. It’s been beaten to death.

But I will say this; I like what the real refs have done.

Universally hated by fans across the nation, after a few weeks without them, everyone is begging for them to come back. They go from being the much maligned zebras to the saviors of football. All while getting a PAY RAISE!

Sign me up! I’ll hand Dime duties over to some six year old with ADD. It will be unreadable drivel. When I make my triumphant return in a few weeks, you will all shower me with love, adoration, and money!

There are two major holes in this plan. One, the Dime is already unreadable drivel. Two, the six year old would probably do a better job picking games than I do.

So forget it. No holding out for me. Back to work.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
Without the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.438)
^Philosophy Picks^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
$Money Picks$: 1 – 2 – 0 (.333)

Season
With the spread: 23 – 23 – 2 (.500)
Without the spread: 31 – 17 – 0 (.646)
^Philosophy Picks^: 3 – 4 – 0 (.429)
$Money Picks$: 6 – 6 – 1 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

St. Louis (+7.5) @ Chicago (-7.5)
Tampa Bay (+8.5) @ Dallas (-8.5)
NY Jets (-2.5) @ Miami (+2.5)
San Francisco (-7.0) @ $^Minnesota (+7.0)
Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Arizona (+3.5)
Atlanta (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0)
Houston (-1.5) @ Denver (+1.5)

THE BAD

NY Giants (+2.5) @ Carolina (-2.5)
Buffalo (-3.0) @ Cleveland (+3.0)
Kansas City (+8.5) @ New Orleans (-8.5)
Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Washington (-3.0)
Detroit (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Indianapolis (-3.0)
$Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Oakland (+3.5)
New England (+3.0) @ Baltimore (-3.0)
Green Bay (-3.0) @ Seattle (+3.0) – LOL
$UNDER 41.5 NY Jets @ Miami

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

It is awfully hard to back Cleveland in this spot. The Baltimore Ravens have won eight straight games against Cleveland and are 6-2 against the spread over that run. Joe Flacco looks incredible, and the Ravens are a very strong home team. But with all of that said, this looks like a prime spot for a letdown game. The Ravens had that gut-wrenching game against Philadelphia in Week 2 that they lost in the closing moments, and then last week they narrowly won with a last-second field goal and earned their revenge over the New England Patriots. After two emotionally charged games, the Ravens now face a team they crush year in and year out. Wouldn’t it make sense for them to exhale and just go through the motions? Cleveland, on the other hand, will be doing everything it can to avoid embarassment in primetime. Baltimore wins, but not in blowout fashion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

SUNDAY

Carolina (+7.0) @ Atlanta (-7.0)
Another tough philosophy pick to make against an outstanding home team, but this one is as obvious as they come. Carolina is coming off of a humiliating 36-7 loss at home last Thursday night while Atlanta is coming off of a huge 27-3 road win over San Diego. Atlanta is 3-0 straight up and ATS and looking invincible while Carolina is 1-2 SU and ATS and looks terrible. It doesn’t get much more high vs. low than this. Also factor in Atlanta’s recent dominance over Carolina and Carolina’s bad road record, and everyone and their mother likes the Falcons this week (80%+). Not only is Atlanta due for a letdown game, but consider travel; Atlanta traveled to Kansas City, then back to Atlanta, then out to San Diego, now back to Atlanta. Carolina hasn’t left the Southeast. All signs, in my philosophy brain, point to a nail-biter of a game. I’ll take the seven points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

New England (-4.0) @ Buffalo (+4.0)
These 3.5/4.0-point road favorites are the bane of the Dime’s existence. They always look so inviting, but are always traps. When I try to spring the trap, I get crushed. When I go with the flow (like Detroit and Pittsburgh last week), I lose. What to do? Well it pops up twice this week, and I love the road team both times, so trap away. Not that I care about trends, but New England is 18-2 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games against Buffalo. The Patriots are a perennial ATS winner at spreads under 6.0. Buffalo is the beneficiary of a soft schedule early, and New England is obviously better than its 1-2 record. Do you want to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in this spot? I’m 0-3 ATS on New England picks this year, so I have no idea, but I will try the Pats again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Minnesota (+4.5) @ Detroit (-4.5)
Matthew Stafford’s status is currently up in the air for Sunday’s game. But even if he does play, he won’t be at 100%. This Detroit Lions team is clearly out of sync, and it looks like my preseason prediction that this team was taking a step backwards this season is coming true. Are they good enough to beat Minnesota by a touchdown or more? Sure they are. But while Detroit has looked “off” all season, Minnesota has shown a lot of heart and Christian Ponder has developed into a great leader for this team. I just like what I’ve seen better out of the Vikings, even if they are the inferior team on paper, so I’ll go with them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota

San Diego (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)
Coin flip. The Chargers clearly looked better in their first two games than they actually are, and the Chiefs clearly looked worse in their first two games than they actually are. So what now? I have to lean, ever so slightly, towards Kansas City. I came into the year feeling that the Chiefs were the second best team in the AFC West behind Denver. Kansas City also has home field advantage (they’ve beaten San Diego two straight times at Arrowhead), and San Diego loves losing games in the first half of the year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
I could go either way on this one, too. Seattle is a very legitimate playoff contender, Monday Night Football controversy aside. Pete Carroll’s motivational tactics are similar to the ones he used in college, and Seattle feels like a college team in the way it plays so drastically different at home and on the road. Will that be different this year? We’ll find out as the season goes on. But St. Louis has been playing tough football this year, and with Seattle dealing with media distractions all week the Rams might be able to pick them off this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

San Francisco (-4.0) @ NY Jets (+4.0)
All signs point to San Francisco this Sunday. New York’s offense has been terrible since that random Week 1 explosion, and going up against San Francisco’s shutdown defense won’t help matters. On defense, the Jets lose Darrelle Revis, who is the key kog to Rex Ryan’s system. Antonio Cromartie is much less effective at No. 1, and Kyle Wilson has struggled badly at the NFL level. I correctly predicted San Francisco’s off game last week, and expect a huge bounce back this week in a game that the 49ers should be able to control both sides of the ball in like Pittsburgh did in its win over the Jets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Tennessee (+12.0) @ Houston (-12.0)
Big home favorites haven’t fared to well this season so far, but this one looks about as safe as you can get. Tennessee is allowing well over 30 points per game on defense, the offensive line is terrible, and Chris Johnson has been rendered completely obsolete averaging just 1.4 yards per carry. Jake Locker had a great game last week, but there will still be growing pains with so much falling around him. Houston is outstanding on both sides of the ball and has been an ATM for NFL bettors with a 16-5 ATS record since 2011. With no emotional hangups in sight (if anything, Tennessee could be tired after that wild shootout last week), all systems appear to be “go” for a blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Ther are always so many games on the schedule that are too close to call. I think Cincinnati is the better team, and at only -2.5 I guess that means I have to take the Bengals. But Cinci’s defense has been suspect this year, and wins over Cleveland and Washington don’t mean that much. This feels like one of those damned either way types of games, so I recommend you all take Jacksonville in your pool since I’m going with Cincinnati.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Miami (+5.5) @ Arizona (-5.5)
Oh Miami. If only you had anything resembling an offense you’d actually be a pretty good team this year. Arizona’s defense is legit, and this crazy 3-0 start over quality teams deserves respect. But the Dolphins have proven time and time again to have a good defense this year, and I’m still not sold on Arizona’s offense. Also, is it possible that the Cardinals start to buy into their own hype a bit? I can’t pick the Miami outright upset because I simply don’t trust Ryan Tannehill on the road yet, but I do think it will be a low-scoring and close affair.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Oakland (+6.5) @ Denver (-6.5)
I could make a case either way. Dennis Allen should know the ins and outs of Denver’s defense as he was their defensive coordinator last year, so Oakland might be able to build on last week’s offensive momentum. Oakland has also fared very well at Mile High in recent years. On the other hand, we have Peyton Manning at home against a defense that has virtually nothing left in the secondary. Are we in for another crazy shootout? Possibly. In the end, I just can’t get over all of the injuries Oakland has with both of its starting cornerbacks and two of its three top wide receivers out. I lean towards Denver winning and covering, but hope I’m wrong again.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

New Orleans (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Hard to believe that just three weeks into the season, we can already almost difinitively say that the New Orleans Saints won’t be in the playoffs in 2012. But even with the abysmal defensive play in getting out to this 0-3 start, what has Green Bay done to make the Packers a 7.5-point favorite? The offense (especially on the offensive line) is out of sync, and the defense is susceptable against an offense like New Orleans. I expect Green Bay to win, but I’m not quite comfortable giving Drew Brees 7.5 points just yet.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Washington (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
At this point, it looks to be pretty clear what Washington is; a shootout team. Robert Griffin III gives this team an electric weapon on offense and can lead his team to 30+ points on any given day, but the defense can’t be counted on to give up much less than 30. With this in mind, I like Washington’s chances against a team like Tampa Bay, which doesn’t exactly have a light-the-world-on-fire offense. This one could easily go either way, but it is one I think the Redskins can manage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

NY Giants (+1.5) @ Philadelphia (-1.5)
I started the Dime off with a big high vs. low game in Carolina vs. Atlanta, and here is another one. New York is coming off of a 37-6 win and Philadephia is coming off of a 27-6 loss to Arizona. But it wasn’t just that game that was low for the Eagles. They’ve been brutal on offense all year and Michael Vick has made a ton of mistakes in all three games, leading the Eagles to an 0-3 record ATS. New York’s defense was back in full force Thursday night and should conceivably eat this Eagles team up. But I don’t think so. Philadelphia is due for its best game of the year, and the Eagles always seem to get it against the Giants with a 7-1 SU and ATS record over the last eight meetings between these two rivals. Andy Reid knows how to prepare for Eli Manning, and after last week’s embarrassment I think the Eagles are finally ready to put it all together this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Philadelphia

MONDAY

Chicago (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
Where did Dallas’s offense go? It looked great in the season opener against New York, but has since disappeared over the last two games. Is Chicago the right team to find it against? The Cowboys have looked great on defense, and Jay Cutler is the type of quarterback to get overwhelmed and make bad decisions especially on a Monday night in a stadium like Cowboys Stadium. I’m really torn on this one. I guess I can’t turn down 3.5 points on Chicago in what should be a really close game and potentially a defensive struggle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Chicago

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 10 – 16 – 0 (.385)

Week 5 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-5/

Washington +6.5
Rice +6
UCLA -19.5
Western Kentucky/Arkansas State Over 55.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!