2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 5

By , October 5, 2012

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

14-1 against the spread. 14-1 straight up. 5-0 on money picks. 3-0 on philosophy picks. 4-0 on outright upsets.

Last week was the NFL handicapping equivalent of a no-hitter. And it was pitched by a mediocre journeyman pitcher.

On about a weekly basis, as I get pounded with losing weeks, I ask myself “why the hell do I subject myself to this?” And for once, I get an answer. I get to have that sterling email on record, with almost 400 witnesses (even if only 23 of them actually opened the email instead of deleting it).

Does luck have a hell of a lot to do with going 14-1? Of course it does. But I have to take a little bit of credit, too… that’s one hell of a week.

And now, the encore. I hate the schedule this week, meaning I’m going to have to take a lot of educated guesses without strong leans, leaving myself to the will of the Football Gods. And that doesn’t bode well.

The way I have it visualized, last Sunday, the Football Gods (perhaps relishing in their glory of screwing the Packers to get a bunch of greedy billionaires to bring the real referees back) took a trip down to the Football God Realm equivalent of Cancun to get plastered and have a good time. They, ironically enough, left Football God-ing duties to some interns; replacement Football Gods, if you will. Given explicit instructions not to let “that schmuck Dave’s Dime” go better than 9-6, the replacement Football Gods got overwhelmed with crowd noise and the complexities of what was in their jurisdiction and let me get away with murder across the board, not screwing me over with any weird bounces, field goals, pick-sixes, or backdoor covers.

Now, the real Football Gods are back. Hungover from having way too many drinks, regretful of some bad decisions and needing to clean up the mess the replacements made, they are going to be very angry and vengeful Football Gods. And who do you think they will smite?

If you know a good smite insurance salesmen, let me know, because I think it’d be a good investment of my winnings from last week.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 14 – 1 – 0 (.933)
Without the spread: 14 – 1 – 0 (.933)
^Philosophy Picks^: 3 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
$Money Picks$: 5 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 37 – 24 – 2 (.607)
Without the spread: 45 – 18 – 0 (.714)
^Philosophy Picks^: 6 – 4 – 0 (.600)
$Money Picks$: 11 – 6 – 1 (.647)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

$^Cleveland (+12.0) @ Baltimore (-12.0)
$^Carolina (+7.0) @ Atlanta (-7.0)
New England (-4.0) @ Buffalo (+4.0)
Minnesota (+4.5) @ Detroit (-4.5)
Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
$San Francisco (-4.0) @ NY Jets (+4.0)
Tennessee (+12.0) @ $Houston (-12.0)
Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Jacksonville (+2.5)
Miami (+5.5) @ Arizona (-5.5)
Oakland (+6.5) @ Denver (-6.5)
New Orleans (+7.5) @ Green Bay (-7.5)
Washington (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay (-2.5)
NY Giants (+1.5) @ $^Philadelphia (-1.5)
Chicago (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)

THE BAD

San Diego (+1.0) @ Kansas City (-1.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

THURSDAY

Arizona (-2.5) @ St. Louis (+2.5)
Sure, an upset would make sense here. St. Louis has been great at home with two wins in two games (over Washington and Seattle), and Arizona’s luck in close games has to run out eventually. But despite the fact that the Cardinals do a lot of getting by by the skin of their teeth, I actually respect them as a legitimate playoff team at this point. That is due to their outstanding play on defense, and considering they’ve contained offenses like New England’s and Philadelphia’s, I think they can handle St. Louis’s. Arizona has done extremely well against St. Louis over the last five years, and while an upset wouldn’t surprise me, I actually think the Cardinals keep things rolling with a win and move to a shocking 5-0 on the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

SUNDAY

Miami (+3.0) @ Cincinnati (-3.0)
Determining a team’s mindset going into a game always comes down to guesswork, but how much can the Dolphins really have left in the emotional tank after losing two straight games that they led late in overtime? Since being blown out by Baltimore in Week 1, Cincinnati has looked strong in three straight wins. I get the feeling that Miami hits a wall in this game, and the Bengals cruise to a victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Green Bay (-7.0) @ Indianapolis (+7.0)
There are two many unknowns in this game. If Green Bay plays its best game, covering a touchdown spread against the Indianapolis Colts shouldn’t be too hard; but the Packers haven’t looked particularly sharp on offense all year. Will the Colts losing their coach indefinitely as he battles leukemia rally the team, or be a depressing distraction? In the end, I have to lean towards Indianapolis simply because I can’t find it in me to pass on a home team coming off of a bye at +7.0. There has to be some unwritten rule about that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Baltimore (-6.0) @ Kansas City (+6.0)
I don’t know what to think of Kansas City anymore. I thought the late comeback over New Orleans might spark this team, but in actuality, it is the only good half of football the Chiefs have played all year. Baltimore has its troubles on the road, and I’m sure Kansas City will be happy to screw me over again after being my only loss last week; but with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh looming, Baltimore has no reason to lose focus here, and should be able to handle beating the Chiefs by at least a touchdown like everyone but New Orleans has.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Atlanta (-3.0) @ Washington (+3.0)
Washington is what it is, a great offensive team with a poor defense. Atlanta struggled with Carolina last week, but that was a tough spot for the Falcons, and they still gutted out a win. Against Washington’s defense, Matt Ryan should be able to lead his team to score into the 30’s. Washington will also score its share of points, but Atlanta’s defense is strong enough to make some stops which will be the difference in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Cleveland (+8.5) @ NY Giants (-8.5)
Cleveland has lost 10 straight games, but has been a spread-covering machine over that stretch. The Giants, meanwhile, have only had one great game this year in their blowout win over Carolina. The points are tempting here, but I can’t help but feel like the Giants are due for another blowout win, especially after last week’s gut-wrenching loss to Philadelphia. I hate laying big points on the Giants because they never seem to cover, but this feels like a game they should be taking their aggression out in on both sides of the ball.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: NY Giants

Philadelphia (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
Maybe my favorite pick of the week, despite how many rabbits have been in Philadelphia’s hat this year. The Steelers suffer an embarrassing loss to the Oakland Raiders and have had an entire bye week to stew over it and to prepare for the Eagles. In the meantime, they get three very important starters back in James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Rashard Mendenhall. Lastly, they are at home, where they are 11-1 straight up and 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games. All signs, in my opinion, point to a huge bounce-back win for the Steelers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Seattle (+3.0) @ Carolina (-3.0)
In what ends up being one of only two outright upsets I’m taking all week, I like Seattle to upset the Panthers this week. The Seahawks can’t lose every game on the road, and rushing defense could be all the difference in this game. Carolina’s rushing defense is awful which could lead to a big day for Marshawn Lynch, and Seattle’s rushing defense is one of the league’s best which will help contain Cam Newton. I think this one will be a close, low-scoring game and that Seattle will come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Seattle

Chicago (-5.5) @ Jacksonville (+5.5)
This one has to be a trap, doesn’t it? Chicago riding high after a 16-point win on the road over Dallas, Jacksonville coming in low after a 17-point loss at home to Cincinnati. Everyone is high on Chicago at the moment, everyone is betting Chicago (around 85%). Blaine Gabbert against this Chicago defense? All signs seem to point to the Bears, and that’s about the right time when Maurice Jones-Drew randomly steals a game or Jay Cutler gives one away. Not sure how the Jags get it done, but maybe they’ll find a way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Tennessee has been flat-out awful, especially on defense this season. But taking a look at the four teams the Titans have played, how many defenses would really look great in games against New England, Detroit, @San Diego and Houston? Minnesota’s offense is much more manageable, and Chris Johnson finally showed some signs of life last week. Matt Hasselbeck is a perfectly capable backup, and while I really respect Minnesota and think the Vikings have an outstanding defense, I think Tennessee can keep this loss in the neighborhood of three to four points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Denver (+6.5) @ New England (-6.5)
Ah, revenge. Peyton Manning wasn’t there, but many other current Broncos were, especially on defense, when the Patriots routed the Broncos in the playoffs last season. Denver was completely embarassed last year, and I’m sure the Broncos have had this game circled on their calendar just like the Ravens did when they faced New England. As was the case in that one, there is no lack of motivation on the New England side off to this ugly 2-2 start, making this a tough one to call a philosophy pick. But Denver has already kept losses to within six points against elite Atlanta and Houston, and with revenge on the Broncos side, I think they keep another one close this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)
Another high-low philosophy pick, and these have done pretty well so far this season. You have Buffalo coming off of a 52-28 loss at home against New England and San Francisco coming off of a 34-0 road win over the Jets. San Francisco is back to being everyone’s favorite out in the NFC, and Buffalo is back to being an afterthought. San Francisco doesn’t care if it wins by blowout or by a field goal, and next week’s game against the New York Giants could definitely be a game the 49ers are looking ahead to. The 49ers win this one, but Buffalo does enough on offense, maybe even late in the game when it is already out of reach, to earn a cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

San Diego (+3.5) @ New Orleans (-3.5)
I just don’t know what to do with San Diego. Yes, the Chargers are 3-1, but they’ve beaten terrible teams in Tennessee, Oakland, and Kansas City. On the other hand, isn’t New Orleans terrible this year at 0-4? The Saints have to snap out of their slump eventually. With Drew Brees going for the all-time consecutive games with a touchdown pass record, in front of the home fans, hoping to go into the bye with some positive momentum… I’ll make the super square pick and take the winless team -3.5 over the 3-1 team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

MONDAY

Houston (-8.0) @ NY Jets (+8.0)
This is the High-Low game of all high-low games. Houston blew out Tennessee last week to improve 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. The Texans have the second best scoring offense in the game and the best defense in the game allowing just 14 points per game. New York got destroyed by San Francisco 34-0 last week, has lost the star of its defense (Darrelle Revis) and offense (Santonio Holmes) and is mired in a quarterback controversy with Mark Sanchez struggling. I mentioned last week how big of a hole Revis’s absence leaves on the defense, and Holmes being out leaves New York with no home run threat on offense. Does anyone see this game being anything other than a Houston blowout? After being completely humiliated in front of their home fans last week and getting torn to shreds in the national media all week long, my hope is that the Jets refuse to roll over and die in primetime on Monday night and play their hearts out. Will even that be enough? Probably not. But these are the types of picks that made me FOURTEEN AND ONE last week, so I will go down with the ship if I have to!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 12 – 18 – 0 (.400)

Week 6 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2012-college-football-picks-week-6/

Utah State +7.0
Oklahoma -5.0
UL Lafayette -27.0
New Mexico State +10.0
Rice -5.5
North Texas +11.5
Notre Dame -13.5

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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