2012 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Wild Card Week

By , January 4, 2013

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I feel you, Tony Romo.

I guess you and I are just destined to suck good sir. No one can question our motivation going into Week 17, but everyone can question our results.

You throw a brutal game-losing interception to miss the playoffs in a Week 17 play in game for the second straight year. I go 6-10 ATS to complete a brutal 30-48-2 ATS skid over five straight losing weeks in December.

The nice thing is, unlike you, I get to continue into the playoffs despite my losing record. Zing.

What’s that? You are entering the sixth year of your $67.4 million contract next season while I get paid nothing to do the Dime? Touche. Double Zing.

All joking aside, I am quite disappointed with my results this season. But as I watched the afternoon games unfold while one 16-point underdog (the one I picked) got destroyed and another 16-point underdog (the one I picked against) backdoor covered, I couldn’t help but think… why the hell am I even picking these games?

I think I’ve established at this point that I’m no good at picking every game. Moving forward into future seasons, I’m going to focus on just breaking down games that I actually have a strong opinion on… and maybe just listing my leans on other games for those still interested. I don’t know, I’ll work out the details… but I do know that I can’t keep having games I’d never touch like Kansas City +16.0 at Denver affecting my mood on Sundays.

And speaking of changes, I’m going through some major ones in 2013. For those of you interested in following along with my departure from sports journalism into some new ventures, feel free to join me on my journey over on my blog as I preview my goals for January and 2013.

But enough of that life-sorting stuff, let’s get to the playoffs!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 10 – 0 (.375)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
^Philosophy Picks^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)
$Money Picks$: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 162 – 93 – 1 (.640)
^Philosophy Picks^: 12 – 21 – 0 (.363)
$Money Picks$: 34 – 33 – 2 (.507)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Atlanta (-3.5)
NY Jets (+3.5) @ Buffalo (-3.5)
Jacksonville (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0)
Carolina (+4.5) @ New Orleans (-4.5)
Philadelphia (+7.0) @ NY Giants (-7.0)
St. Louis (+11.0) @ Seattle (-11.0)

THE BAD

Baltimore (+2.5) @ Cincinnati (-2.5)
Chicago (-3.0) @ $^Detroit (+3.0)
Houston (-7.0) @ $^Indianapolis (+7.0)
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Miami (+10.0) @ New England (-10.0)
Oakland (+10.0) @ San Diego (-10.0)
Arizona (+16.5) @ San Francisco (-16.5)
Green Bay (-3.5) @ Minnesota (+3.5)
Kansas City (+16.0) @ Denver (-16.0)
$^Dallas (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophy Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick

SATURDAY

#6 Cincinnati (+4.5) @ #3 Houston (-4.5)
In a rematch of last year’s AFC #6 vs. #3 Saturday morning Wild Card matchup, the Bengals and Texans are at it again this year. Last time around, Houston rolled to a 31-10 victory, but I’m expecting much different results this time around. It’s quite possible that the Texans will turn it on and re-find the form that led them to an 11-1 start, but over the last four games the team has not looked sharp at all (1-3 SU and ATS), especially on offense. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been exceptional on defense and has amassed a 7-1 SU and ATS record over the second half of the season. The Bengals are not only in much better form heading into this game, but also have the revenge factor of being able to return the favor of being knocked out by Houston last year. I think they will do just that.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
OVER/UNDER 43: Under (23-17 Cincinnati)

#6 Minnesota (+7.5) @ #3 Green Bay (-7.5)
Saturday’s second rematch, but instead of being a rematch of last season’s playoffs, it is a rematch of last week’s action. Minnesota scraped out a 37-34 win over Green Bay last week to not only earn itself a playoff spot but to force the Packers to play this Sunday instead of resting. It is tempting to take the points on the Vikings here, as Green Bay clearly doesn’t have an answer for Adrian Peterson (409 rushing yards in two games against the Packers this year). But on the flip side, do the Vikings have an answer for Aaron Rodgers? It didn’t look like it in the second half. The change in venue is huge here as the Packers have won seven straight at Lambeau and after falling short in last year’s playoffs they’ll want to do right by the fans (and themselves) this time around. Christian Ponder will likely struggle on this stage, and the Packers should be able to score enough to stay ahead of Peterson.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
OVER/UNDER 46: Over (34-17 Green Bay)

SUNDAY

#5 Indianapolis (+6.5) @ #4 Baltimore (-6.5)
Ray Lewis is a smart man. By announcing his retirement before this game, he has taken any emotional edge that Indianapolis may have had going into it and evened the playing field in that department. Lewis is the face, heart and soul of the Baltimore Ravens, and in what will likely be his final home game, the team and crowd should be even more pumped up than they already would have been just heading into the playoffs. Factor in Andrew Luck’s interception proneness on the road, and this looks to me like a big Baltimore victory waiting to happen. Indianapolis has had a sensational run and has been an amazing story this season, and the Ravens aren’t immune to being upset; but with Lewis returning, I just don’t see it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
OVER/UNDER 47: Under (28-17 Baltimore)

#5 Seattle (-3.0) @ #4 Washington (+3.0)
This is the game I keep going back and forth on, and if Green Bay does end up beating Minnesota, I’m going to have a damn hard time picking Atlanta next week against whichever of these teams wins this one. Inherently, I think that Seattle is the better team, most notably on defense. But Washington’s 7-0 SU and ATS finish to end the season, including five wins over division rivals and an impressive one over Baltimore as well, makes the Redskins extremely hard to pick against, especially at home. Are we sure that Seattle’s road woes (3-5 on the road this season) are a thing of the past after beating a slumping Chicago and Buffalo? Or were those road woes based on early start times, which aren’t a factor here? I’ll probably change my mind 10 more times before kickoff, but right now I lean towards Seattle. The defense is so good, and the fact that it has contained and beaten Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick led offenses leads me to believe it can beat a hobbled RGIII. This should be a really, really good one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle
OVER/UNDER 46: Under (24-20 Seattle)

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

FINAL RECORD: 40 – 37 – 1 (.519)

For those asking, I am leaning towards Alabama minus the points and the UNDER in the BCS National Championship Game.

Last Week:
GATOR BOWL, Northwestern VS. Mississippi State OVER 52 (WIN)
ROSE BOWL, Stanford -6.0 over Wisconsin (TIE)

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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