2013 NFL Newsletter: Dave’s Dime Week 1

By , September 5, 2013 12:00 pm

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Delete it. Report it. Mark it as spam. Do what you have to do.

Because it’s back.

Eight months ago I set out on a journey to re-invent myself. To leave the cold dark world of sports media behind me, leaving the state of the Dime in question. Would it return? Could life go on without it? Do only three or four people care?

For better or worse, the answer to all three of those questions… is yes.

As for my re-invention, well… it is being put on hold. The Dime is back. The college football videos are back. And in fact, I might even be starting a new sports show on YouTube this season too.

Sometimes in searching for new passions, you remember why you were passionate about something in the first place.

I love sports journalism, and I love mildly entertaining the handful of you that skim this thing before deleting it.

Making a slight change to the format of the picks, but don’t worry; they’ll still be just as bad as always.

Just like my Raiders.

Here we go!

THE RECORD

Last Week
Spread “Picks”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Spread “Leans”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Spread “Coin Flips”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
Spread “Picks”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Spread “Leans”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Spread “Coin Flips”: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
Without the spread: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Last Season
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 162 – 93 – 1 (.640)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

(Here I break down my correct and incorrect picks from the previous week)

THE PICKS

($) – Indicates a “Pick”, which is a side that I feel strongly about
(/) – Indicates a “Lean”, which is the side that I’m leaning towards
(?) – Indicates a “Coin Flip”, where I don’t have much of an opinion
* – Indicates Outright Upset Pick

THURSDAY

(/) Baltimore (+7.5) @ Denver (-7.5)
The revenge angle here is extremely obvious, with last year’s postseason loss in this building still fresh on the Denver Broncos’ minds. But the even bigger factor in liking the Broncos here is the total overhaul of Baltimore’s defense this offseason, including key losses such as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This unit is still talented and will gel over time, but it isn’t likely to be in Week 1 against Peyton Manning. I’m concerned about the 7.5 points as Von Miller’s absence in the Denver defense could lead to a shoot-out type game, but I like Manning to have a big day and the Broncos to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

SUNDAY

(/) New England (-9.5) @ Buffalo (+9.5)
New England has completely owned Buffalo over the last 10 years with an 18-1 record against the Bills including an 8-1 straight up and 7-1-1 against the spread record against the Bills in Buffalo over that stretch. The Patriots have to be the pick here, but with so many new faces on offense for New England and the potential for a pretty solid offensive output in Buffalo with EJ Manual under center, the Bills could find a way to cover here. After all, I NEVER get a New England pick right.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

($) Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
I like the Bengals a lot this year. The offense was already good and got even better through a great draft, and the defense has been very strong for a couple of years now. Chicago’s defense will still be great even with Brian Urlacher no longer roaming the center of the field, making this one look on paper like a defensive struggle. That makes the three points that much more valuable, and it also makes me love taking the team with the better offense to edge out a victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati

(/) Miami (+1.0) @ Cleveland (-1.0)
This is a “show me” game for both teams. Both took strides forward in a rebuilding year last year, and both enter the season with high hopes; Cleveland through internal improvement and Miami through some big spending this offseason. This should be a great game, but I’m a bit more sold on Miami’s roster; and until Cleveland shows that it has learned to win, I’ll be picking against them in these close-to-call spots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

(/) Atlanta (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
With two of the best passing attacks in the NFL and a couple of questionable defenses, this one should be a blast to watch. I think Atlanta is the better team as I like the Falcons’ defense better and the addition of Steven Jackson should help them run the ball and protect leads better than they did last year. But in New Orleans, in Sean Payton’s return to the sideline, on opening week… I just think New Orleans is going to be too revved up and come out firing on all cylinders.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

($) Tampa Bay (-3.5) @ NY Jets (+3.5)
This one seems like a gift. The Jets are starting a project rookie quarterback in Geno Smith who is surrounded by arguably the worst supporting cast on offense in the entire NFL. Tampa Bay has a great offense and their defense should be a lot better than it was last year; and even if it isn’t, will it matter against the Jets? Picking on the Jets seems unfair as they are such an easy target, but I’m firmly on the wagon.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay

(/) Tennessee (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Pittsburgh will probably end up being fine, but the Steelers had an uncharacteristically bad preseason and the running game (which was dreadful last year) has not been solved. Sure, it is just the preseason; but under a coach who plays to win in the preseason, it was concerning. Tennessee is bad, but there are enough pieces in place on offense here to scrape out a few scores… and that might be enough to cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

(?) Minnesota (+5.5) @ Detroit (-5.5)
Absolutely no idea what to expect from either of these teams this season. I am guessing that Minnesota trends down from last year and Detroit trends up, but does that make the Vikings a 5.5-point underdog this week? No idea. I guess I’ll take the points and pray.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

($) Oakland (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0)
Maybe the easiest pick on the board. For all of the fuss about Terrelle Pryor taking over as starter (which I am excited about, too), he is a work in progress that will struggle in a hostile road environment. But more importantly, the Raiders have the personnel to put up some historically bad numbers on defense this year, and Andrew Luck is a surgeon given time and space. Even if Pryor has a great day, it isn’t going to matter after Luck is done carving up this defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

($) Seattle (-3.5) @ Carolina (+3.5)
Will this be the year that Cam Newton and the Panthers finally figure things out and make a run at a playoff spot? Maybe, maybe not. But going up against one of the league’s best defenses that has a clear history of success at stopping mobile quarterbacks, this is a terrible matchup for the Panthers. Newton is the entire focus of the offense, which should make it easy for Seattle to hone in on him. And on offense, the Seahawks have a wide array of weapons that can get the job done. The road struggles of the past shouldn’t haunt Seattle anymore, and the Seahawks should pick up where they left off last regular season with a win Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

($) Kansas City (-4.0) @ Jacksonville (+4.0)
I’m not quite sure what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs this season, but I do know what to expect from the Jaguars, and that is a lot of bad football. And I actually lean towards a solid season for Kansas City as Andy Reid and Alex Smith should be great for the offense. I liked this spread a lot better earlier in the week when it was Kansas City -2.0, but even as is, the Chiefs should coast to a pretty easy victory by at least a touchdown.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

($) Arizona (+4.5) @ St. Louis (-4.5)
If not for one of the most brutal schedules in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals would be a sleeper pick of mine to make the playoffs. They upgraded the offense big time with Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhall, brought in a great new head coach, and already had a strong defense in place. The Cardinals always tend to play the Rams well, and with Steven Jackson gone I think St. Louis will be somewhat one-dimensional as a passing team, giving Arizona’s defense the chance to cheat pass and shine. I could be way off, but I think Arizona wins this one outright.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

(/) Green Bay (+4.5) @ San Francisco (-4.5)
Green Bay’s defense was once known as one of the league’s best, but Colin Kaepernick tore it to shreds last postseason with a historic performance both passing and throwing the football. Not only will the Packers be looking for revenge overall, but the defense in particular should be thrilled to get another crack at Kaepernick. I like the 49ers better on paper and at home they are tough to pick against, but as strong of a motivator as revenge is, I think the Packers might find a way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

($) NY Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas (-3.5)
I usually don’t bother with past trends as teams change so much from year to year, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Giants are a perfect 4-0 at Cowboys Stadium. New York had an uncharacteristically awful year on defense in 2012, and I think they are going to bounce back with a solid year this year. As for Dallas, I never know what to expect from this team. All I do know is that 3.5 points is way too generous to pass up on with how well the Giants play against the Cowboys.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: NY Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *NY Giants

MONDAY

(/) Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Washington (-3.5)
I can’t wait to see what Chip Kelly has in store for the NFL. But unfortunately for him, he inherits a pretty brutal defense, and with Robert Griffin III back in action, that spells trouble. Not sure if this one will be a shootout or a one-sided affair, but expect RGIII to remind everyone what they were missing out on while he was injured.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

(/) Houston (-3.5) @ San Diego (+3.5)
San Diego tends to play well at home early in the year, making this a bit of a tricky spot for Houston, especially with Arian Foster at less than 100%. But the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender and have so much talent on both sides of the ball that they should be able to handle the Chargers, who will likely have a learning curve under their new head coach.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 4 – 1 – 0 (.800)

Week 2 Video Here: http://www.davesdime.com/2013-college-football-picks-week-2

Florida -3.0
North Carolina -17.0
SDSU +28.0
Oregon -22.0
South Carolina +3.5
Tulsa -10.0
Oregon State -27.0

Good luck! Thanks for reading!

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Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel? EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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