It’s not always fun being Irish, especially if you’ve been on the wrong side of the wagers in the Charlie Weis era. Lured away from the Patriots after the 2004 season where he had been the team’s offensive coordinator, Weis’ four seasons as head football coach at Notre Dame have been rocky to say the least.  Did the win in the recent Hawaii Bowl signal a turnaround for Weis at South Bend?

On a day filled with festivities and beer guzzling like St. Patrick’s Day, there is little doubt that it is good to be Irish. Irish and non-Irish alike don themselves in green, drink happily, and have parades through major cities.

But for the other 364 days a year, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are not having quite as much fun being Irish. A win over the rebuilding Hawaii Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl to break a 14-year bowl slump (0-9 in bowls over that stretch) proved to be a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster season; but it was a fairly dim bright spot. After all, as nice as bowl wins always are, a mediocre bowl against a mediocre non-BCS team isn’t exactly where Notre Dame wants to be.

Charlie Weis’s tenure at Notre Dame has been confusing to say the least.

2005 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 7-5 (started season 7-1)
Over/Under: 7-4-1
Taking over Ty Willingham’s team in 2005 that was 11-13 combined in ’03 and ’04, Weis seemingly made an immediate impact, coaching the team to a 9-2 regular season record that earned them a berth to the Fiesta Bowl, which they went on to lose to Ohio State. The Notre Dame front office signed him to a contract extension just seven games into this season, locking Weis up through 2015. The successful season also lead to success on the recruiting board, as Notre Dame pulled in a Top 10 recruiting class (According to www.rivals.com).

2006 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 4-8-1 (books compensated for Notre Dame’s turnaround; after their 7-1 ATS start in ’05, they went 4-12-1 through 2006, favorites in 14 of the 17 games.)
Over/Under: 7-6
In 2006, QB Brady Quinn’s senior year, Notre Dame’s success continued; away from the betting window, anyway. At 9-2 they earned another BCS berth to the Sugar Bowl, this time getting crushed by LSU. While the bowl wins were still alluding the Irish, they were looking a lot closer to the great Lou Holtz team from 1998 to 1993 (six straight finishes in the Top 13, five in the top six, five bowl wins) then they were to the mediocre team they were in Willingham’s last two seasons as head coach. Another Top 10 recruiting class, led by top recruit QB Jimmy Clausen, and the future was looking bright for the Fighting Irish.

2007 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 5-7
Over/Under: 3-9
And then just like that, the bottom dropped out. Quinn’s departure seemed to take with it anything resembling a competent offense – not that the defense was looking any better. Weis, now two years removed from Willingham’s team and with two Top 10 recruiting classes under him, stumbled through a 3-9 season, the team’s first time under five wins since 1963. Lousy play at the QB position obviously contributed, but the defense was abysmal as well, averaging over four touchdowns against per game (28.75) on the season.

How does a team with such a storied history, coming off two straight BCS bowl appearances and two straight Top 10 recruiting classes fall from grace this hard? Responsibility of course needs to be placed on the players, but it is extremely difficult not to point the finger at Weis and his coaching staff. Yet somehow, despite this terrible season (perhaps potential recruits saw the opportunity to earn immediate playing time?), the Fighting Irish had the second best recruiting class in the country.

2008 Notre Dame Betting Stats
Against The Spread: 7-6
Over/Under: 7-5-1
All that brings us to last season, which really didn’t tell us anything. Sure, the Irish looked pretty sharp in most of their wins last season.  But do you know how many of those wins came against an opponent that finished the season over .500?

Just one, their 6-point win over Navy. The combined record of the opponents Notre Dame beat in 2008 was 29-58. Each time Notre Dame faced a good team (other than Navy), they fell. In their lowest point of the season, the Fighting Irish lost as a 19½-point favorite at home to the then 2-8 Syracuse Orangemen. Rumors swirled that this would spell the end to Weis’s stint as head coach, and a 38-3 loss to USC didn’t help quiet those rumors. But Notre Dame decided to stick with Weis, and they were “rewarded” with their first bowl victory in 14 years.

So as we celebrate this magical St. Patrick’s day and find ourselves drunk enough to believe we can actually see into the future, what can we expect from the 2009 Notre Dame Fighting Irish? On the one hand, Weis now has 3 straight top 10 recruiting classes to work with, and while this year’s class barely cracked the top 25, top linebacker recruit Manti Te’o looks to have the tools to make an immediate impact up the middle on defense. On the other hand, after two straight poor seasons (I’m not impressed by last season), is it safe to assume that Weis just rode Willingham’s recruits (namely Quinn) to success those first two years, and isn’t good at getting the most out of his young talent?

Wins over Washington, Washington State, and Purdue look given. Losses to USC and at Pittsburgh look pretty obvious as well. The other seven games? Well, that all depends on Weis and his coaching staff getting the most out of their players; and, of course, a little bit of the luck of the Irish.

Betting Advice
Always be weary when betting on the Irish ATS, especially if they get hot. This is a nationally adored team that will sometimes get an extra half point or two knocked off of their side to compensate for their popularity. If this team comes out of the gate strong ATS, consider fading them down the stretch, especially against the less-nationally-recognizable opponents.

While it is still too early to tell anything definitively, I’d consider leaning on the OVER early in the season. Weis has taken over the play-calling and the offense looked excellent against Hawaii. Clausen may take a step forward this year, and I believe public perception on this team is still negative in regards to their offensive ability. Notre Dame opens up with Nevada, Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue; all games I could very easily see being high scoring affairs.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NCAAF/10536/betting-notre-dame-the-luck-the-irish.aspx)

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