Record to Date (Through Week 10): 73 - 68 - 3 (.518)

Record Last Week: 6 - 8 - 0

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

THURSDAY

• New England (-3.0) over New York Jets (+3.0) LOSS

SUNDAY

• Denver (+6.5) over @Atlanta (-6.5)
• @Tampa Bay (-4.0) over Minnesota (+4.0)
• Baltimore (+7.0) over @New York Giants (-7.0)
• Oakland (+10.5) over @Miami (-10.5)
• @Kansas City (+5.5) over New Orleans (-5.5)
• Houston (+8.0) over @Indianapolis (-8.0)
• @Carolina (-14.0) over Detroit (+14.0)
• Philadelphia (-9.0) over @Cincinnati (+9.0)
• @Green Bay (-3.5) over Chicago (+3.5)
• @Seattle (+3.0) over Arizona (-3.0)
• St. Louis (+6.5) over @San Francisco (-6.5)
• Tennessee (-2.5) over @Jacksonville (+2.5)
• San Diego (+5.5) over @Pittsburgh (-5.5)
• Dallas (-1.0) over @Washington (+1.0)

MONDAY

• Cleveland (+5.0) over @Buffalo (-5.0)

Record to Date (Through Week 11): 50 - 46 - 1 (.521)

Record Last Week: 3 - 5 - 1

NIU -4.0

TEX -13.0

OSU -3.0

USC -23.0

SDS 28.5

TULSA -4.0

MIA/VT UNDER 43.0

ND/Navy OVER 50.5

BSU/IDA UNDER 59.5

Record to Date (Through Week 8 ): 67 - 60 - 3 (.528)

Record Last Week: 4 - 10 - 0

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

THURSDAY

• Denver (+3.0) over Cleveland (-3.0) WIN

SUNDAY

• @Chicago (+3.0) over Tennessee (-3.0)
• @Detroit (+6.5) over Jacksonville (-6.5)
• @Miami (-8.0) over Seattle (+8.0)
• Green Bay (+2.5) over @Minnesota (-2.5)
• Baltimore over @Houston (Pick’em)
• St. Louis (+9.0) over @New York Jets (-9.0)
• New Orleans (+1.5) over @Atlanta (-1.5)
• Buffalo (+3.5) over @New England (-3.5)
• Carolina (-9.5) over @Oakland (+9.5)
• Indianapolis (+3.0) over @Pittsburgh (-3.0)
• Kansas City (+15.5) over @San Diego (-15.5)
• @Philadelphia (-3.0) over New York Giants (+3.0)

MONDAY

• @Arizona (-9.5) over San Francisco (+9.5)

Record to Date (Through Week 9): 47 - 41 - 0 (.534)

Record Last Week: 3 - 4 - 0

NIU +9.5

ARK +12.0

ARMY +11.0

AZ -41.0

ASU -2.5

ASU -14.0

Tol/Akr OVER 54.5

SM/UCF OVER 49.5

Tul/Hou OVER 56.0

Any topic you want to see covered? Let me know! Thanks!

Record to Date (Through Week 8 ): 63 - 50 - 3 (.558)

Record Last Week: 10 - 3 - 1

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

SUNDAY

• New York Jets (+5.5) over @Buffalo (-5.5) WIN

• @Chicago (-12.5) over Detroit (+12.5) LOSS

• Jacksonville (-7.5) over @Cincinnati (+7.5) LOSS

• Baltimore (+1.5) over @Cleveland (-1.5) WIN

• Tampa Bay (-9.0) over @Kansas City (+9.0) LOSS

• Houston (+4.5) over @Minnesota (-4.5) LOSS

• Arizona (-3.0) over @St. Louis (+3.0) WIN

• @Tennessee (-4.5) over Green Bay (+4.5) LOSS

• Miami (+3.0) over @Denver (-3.0) WIN

• Dallas (+9.0) over @New York Giants (-9.0) LOSS

• @Oakland (+3.0) over Atlanta (-3.0) LOSS

• @Seattle (+6.5) over Philadelphia (-6.5) LOSS

• @Indianapolis (-6.0) over New England (+6.0) LOSS

MONDAY

• @Washington (-2.0) over Pittsburgh (+2.0) LOSS

RESULTS: 4 - 10 - 0

Record to Date (Through Week 9): 44 - 37 - 0 (.543)

Record Last Week: 5 - 4 - 0

ASU +23.0

MIZ -20.0

ISU +31.0

USC -44.0

LOU -13.5

TTU +4.0

RICE -2.0

RESULTS: 3 - 4 - 0

Record to Date (Through Week 7): 53 - 47 - 2 (.530)

Record Last Week: 7 - 7 - 0

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

SUNDAY

• @Baltimore (-7.0) over Oakland (+7.0) WIN

• @Carolina (-4.0) over Arizona (+4.0) TIE

• Tampa Bay (+2.0) over @Dallas (-2.0) LOSS

• Washington (-7.5) over @Detroit (+7.5) WIN

• @Miami (+1.0) over Buffalo (-1.0) WIN

• @New England (-7.5) over St. Louis (+7.5) LOSS

• @New Orleans (+3.0) over San Diego (-3.0) WIN

• @Philadelphia (-9.0) over Atlanta (+9.0) WIN

• @N.Y. Jets (-13.5) over Kansas City (+13.5) LOSS

• Cleveland (+7.0) over @Jacksonville (-7.0) WIN

• @Houston (-9.0) over Cincinnati (+9.0) WIN

• N.Y. Giants (+3.0) over @Pittsburgh (-3.0) WIN

• Seattle (+5.5) over @San Francisco (-5.5) WIN

MONDAY

• @Tennessee (-4.0) over Indianapolis (+4.0) WIN

RESULTS: 10 - 3 - 1

Record to Date (Through Week : 39 - 33 - 0 (.542)

Record Last Week: 6 - 4 - 0

FRES -16.0

USF -4.0

TCU -31.0

MIZ -21.0

USC -16.0

TULSA -23.0

TTU/KU OVER 66.0

UCLA/CAL OVER 51.0

SMU/NAVY OVER 62.5

RESULTS 5 - 4 - 0

Philadelphia Phillies VS. Tampa Bay Rays

How can you handicap homeruns?

The Tampa Bay Rays are the popular pick, and it isn’t too hard to see why.  The team is a force from top to bottom; they have an excellent lineup, a downright scary pitching staff with the emergence of Matt Garza to tack on to the 1 – 2 punch of Scott Kazmir and James Shields, and a bullpen that just got even better with David Price pulling an ’06 Adam Wainwright and stepping beautifully into the closer role.

But can you really shrug off the Phillies? Does Rollins / Werth / Utley / Howard / Burrell / Victorino / Feliz NOT strike fear into you? Not to mention, as good as Kazmir / Shields / Garza may be, it is hard to argue that Cole Hamels isn’t the best pitcher in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw him more than just twice in this series if it goes long enough. Brett Myers started the season off rough, had trouble in the bullpen and even spent time in the minors, but he returned to form in the 2nd half with a 7 – 4 record with a sparkling 3.06 ERA. Moyer and Blanton aren’t nearly as electric, but both are capable of eating innings. This staff should definitely be able to keep Philadelphia close all series long… which brings me back to my opening question.

How can you handicap homeruns?

I think these teams match up very well, more so then what people seem to be giving Philadelphia credit for. What the Rays can do with smart base running and timely hitting, the Phils can do with one swing of the bat. And that isn’t to say that the Phils can’t manufacture runs the old fashion way or the Rays can’t hit the long ball; I’m simply pointing out these team’s strengths.

So once again, I provide you with another meaningless write-up, telling you how evenly matched the teams are. I’d love to tell you why one team is so much better than the other that this will be an easy series to predict, but I just don’t see it. I haven’t seen it all October; I’m 2 – 4 on predicting series so far this year. Just goes to show you how good and evenly matched the baseball has been.

This time, I’m going to have to go with the Phillies. While I think the Rays might be the slightly better team, I see Hamels taking game one in Tampa Bay. That means (assuming Myers loses, which isn’t an easy assumption) that the series goes back to Philly tied up at 1 – 1, and I just have to believe the championship-deprived-crazed-madman atmosphere is going to be so completely nuts there that the Phillies will find a way to grab 2 out of 3. That would give them two chances to put it away; but putting away the Rays isn’t going to be easy. Wait, who am I taking again?

PREDICTION: Phillies in 6

Record to Date (Through Week 2): 46 - 40 - 2 (.535)

Record Last Week: 6 - 8 - 1

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

SUNDAY

• @Buffalo (-1.0) over San Diego (+1.0) WIN
• @Carolina (-3.0) over New Orleans (+3.0) WIN
• @Chicago (-3.0) over Minnesota (+3.0) WIN
• @Cincinnati (+9.5) over Pittsburgh (-9.5) LOSS
• Tennessee (-9.0) over @Kansas City (+9.0) WIN
• Baltimore (+3.0) over @Miami (-3.0) WIN
• @New York Giants (-10.5) over San Francisco (+10.5) WIN
• Dallas (-7.0) over @St. Louis (+7.0) LOSS
• @Houston (-9.5) over Detroit (+9.5) LOSS
• Indianapolis (-1.0) over @Green Bay (+1.0) LOSS
• @Oakland (+3.0) over New York Jets (-3.0) WIN
• @Washington (-7.5) over Cleveland (+7.5) LOSS
• @Tampa Bay (-10.5) over Seattle (+10.5) LOSS

MONDAY

• Denver (+3.0) over @New England (-3.0) LOSS

Way too many favorites, I know. I just have good reason to believe they will bring their A games this week and the spreads seem manageable. I’m sure some dogs will cover, but hopefully not too many or I’m in trouble!

RESULTS: 7 - 7 - 0

Record to Date (Through Week 7): 33 - 29 - 0 (.532)

Record Last Week: 3 - 5 - 0

HAW +24.5

UGA -15.0

RICE -3.0

OSU -3.0

NIU -7.5

PSU -23.0

NTU +18.5

IDA +20.5

VT +2.5

HOU -13.0

RESULTS: 6 - 4 - 0

Record to Date (Through Week 2): 40 - 32 - 2 (.556)

Record Last Week: 10 - 3 - 1

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

SUNDAY

• Chicago (-2.5) over @Atlanta (+2.5) LOSS
• Miami (+3.0) over @Houston (-3.0) WIN
• Baltimore (+4.0) over @Indianapolis (-4.0) LOSS
• @Minnesota (-13.0) over Detroit (+13.0) LOSS
• Oakland (+7.0) over @New Orleans (-7.0) LOSS
• @N.Y. Jets (-8.5) over Cincinnati (+8.5) WIN
• @Tampa Bay (-1.5) over Carolina (+1.5) WIN
• St. Louis (+13.5) over @Washington (-13.5) WIN
• @Denver (-3.0) over Jacksonville (+3.0) LOSS
• Dallas (-4.5) over @Arizona (+4.5) LOSS
• Philadelphia (-4.5) over @San Francisco (+4.5) WIN
• @Seattle (-1.5) over Green Bay (+1.5) LOSS
• @San Diego (-4.5) over New England (+4.5) WIN

MONDAY

• New York Giants (-7.5) over @Cleveland (+7.5) LOSS

RESULTS: 6 - 8 - 0

Record to Date (Through Week 6): 30 - 24 - 0 (.556)

Record Last Week: 7 - 1 - 0

TTU -20.5

NIU -11.0

ARK +18.5

TULSA -25.0

IDAHO +34.0

Tex/Okl UNDER 57.0

MSU/NW UNDER 47.0

KSU/Tex A&M OVER 62.0

RESULTS: 3 - 5 - 0

*Boston Red Sox VS. Tampa Bay Rays*

This is the kind of match up that is simply impossible to predict.

Both teams have very capable offenses, especially at the top of the lineup. The mix and match of speed (Iwamura, Upton, and Crawford) and power (Longoria, Pena, Floyd) gives the Rays a versatile offense that is very difficult to pitch against and handle on the base pads. The Red Sox have two pesky young players that hit for average and are dangerous on the bases in Ellsbury and Pedroia, and then they bludgeon you with power 3 to 6 with Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, and Bay. From 1 to 6, there is just no way to pitch around this Red Sox line-up; and this is WITHOUT Lowell! What the Rays lose in the top 6 match-up is made up for in the bottom 3 match-up; without Lowell, the Red Sox bottom three is a notable weakness, while the Rays round out their line-up with Bartlett and Navarro; neither with much power, but both can hit for average and keep an inning or a rally alive. – Slight edge to the Red Sox.

Starting pitching is another tough one to call. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are an excellent one-two punch, and when their stuff if on, they are awfully hard to beat. Garza and Sonnanstine are good young pitchers but are hit or miss; Garza was rattled in the ALDS, which is definitely a concern for the Rays. Sonnanstine is not overpowering, but often pitches well enough to at least give the team a chance to win. The Red Sox meanwhile continue to pitch insanely well. Jon Lester has emerged as a true ace this year, and has proven in out dueling John Lackey twice that he is not wavering in the playoffs. Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to defy logic, reason, and baseball by putting base runners on and getting into jams and finding away to escape from them every single time. Josh Beckett did not pitch well in his game against the Angels, but it is hard to count such a perennial playoff all-star out. And whoever they decide to go with if they need a 4th pitcher, Wakefield/Byrd/Colon are all capable of at least pitching well enough to keep their team in the game. Once again, I have to give an edge to the Red Sox.

Bullpens are strong points for both teams. Runs are going to be hard to come by in the later innings of these games, which is going to make starting pitching and jumping out to early leads that much more important. No edge for either team here really; other then perhaps the playoff experience of the Red Sox.

So I give the Red Sox the edge in every category. So why am I saying this series is impossible to predict? Quite simply, it is because every bit of pressure is on the Red Sox. Obviously the Angels let it get in their heads that they couldn’t beat the Red Sox, and they crumbled in some key situations. The Rays will not do the same; they are not afraid of anyone. They aren’t afraid of the aura that comes with the Red Sox. They are just a bunch of brash kids out to prove the world wrong. Meanwhile the Red Sox have already been penciled in to the World Series, and now that the Angels are out of the way, the media figures they can only beat themselves at this point. If they play with fire like they did against the Angels, they may not get away with it against a team that has already vastly surpassed their expectations, has nothing to lose, and has taken advantage of opponent mistakes all season long. How do you beat a team with no fear of losing?

I’m going to take the Red Sox. They have the edge on the field, and believe they are too accustomed to winning come playoff time (so crazy to read that still…) to cough up 4 games in this series. Plus, there is always the chance the Rays finally crumble under the pressure. Should be an awesome series.

PREDICTION: Red Sox in 7

In baseball, you not only have the daunting task of outlasting your division or every other wild card team over a 162 game schedule; you also have to do so without peaking too early. Timing is everything; the Cubs may have been a better team then the Dodgers for most of the year, but in the three games that it mattered most, the Dodgers were the better team. No excuses, no curses, they were simply the better team.

So with four teams left, the question is now, who is simply the better team in these two series? Unfortunately for those of us who try and predict things, it is only simple to see who the better team was AFTER the fact.

National League Championship

*Los Angeles Dodgers VS. Philadelphia Phillies*

How do you cap a team like the Dodgers? On paper they are a solid to above-average team; but they rarely seem to play like one on the field. They usually either play like duds, or they play like champions. In the Cubs series, they proved quite convincingly that when they are on their game, they can beat anyone in the league. So what can we expect from them against the Phillies? The Phillies out-slugged Milwaukee, and with their powerhouse line-up, they can mash the ball against just about anyone. They have experience on their side as they made the playoffs last year.

But as is usually the case in baseball, this series will come down to pitching. Just how good are these Dodger pitchers? Pretty amazing to see such an impressive 1 – 2 – 3 punch without Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, or Clayton Kershaw’s name involved in it. Derek Lowe had a strong regular season and always steps up big in the playoffs. Chad Billingsley has established himself as a true ace this year. And Kuroda has stepped right into the MLB without issue, and while he isn’t overpowering, he keeps you in the game; which, when the Dodgers are on, is all they need.

The Phillies are just outclassed here; Cole Hamels is an ace and very dangerous, but he is also matched up against Lowe, a playoff veteran that isn’t likely to leave much room for error. Myers needs to be at his very best to match up to Billingsley, and while season win totals would certainly suggest otherwise (in Moyer’s favor), Kuroda and Moyer are pretty evenly matched. If it comes down to a 4^th pitcher, Joe Blanton would face one of the game’s all-time greats in Greg Maddux. Old he may be, but he is still effective and a better pitcher then Blanton.

So the question is, can the Phillies hit their way out of their pitching disadvantage? If anyone can, it’d certainly be them. But I’m going to give the Dodgers the edge here; assuming the Cubs series is an indication of what we will see from them and not merely a façade, I can’t see them losing this series. If the offense could score on Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden, it is hard to see their bats going totally quiet against this staff.

PREDICTION: Dodgers in 6

Record to Date (Through Week 2): 30 - 29 - 1 (.508)

Record Last Week: 7 - 6 - 0

Full Copy of the newsletter now posted: http://socaltrojan31.livejournal.com/

I send out a free email newsletter every week with my commentary and analysis on each game. If you’d like to receive it, just shoot me an email at vegasdavesdime@gmail.com!

SUNDAY

• Tennessee (-2.5) over @Baltimore (+2.5) WIN
• @Carolina (-9.5) over Kansas City (+9.5) WIN
• San Diego (-6.0) over @Miami (+6.0) LOSS
• Washington (+6.0) over @Philadelphia (-6.0) WIN
• Indianapolis (-3.0) over @Houston (+3.0) WIN
• Seattle (+7.0) over @New York Giants (-7.0) LOSS
• Atlanta (+7.0) over @Green Bay (-7.0) WIN
• Chicago (-3.5) over @Detroit (+3.5) WIN
• Tampa Bay (+3.0) over @Denver (-3.0) TIE
• @Arizona (-1.0) over Buffalo (+1.0) WIN
• New England (-3.0) over @San Francisco (+3.0) WIN
• Cincinnati (+16.5) over @Dallas (-16.5) WIN
• @Jacksonville (-4.0) over Pittsburgh (+4.0) LOSS

MONDAY

• Minnesota (+3.0) over @New Orleans (-3.0) WIN

RESULTS: 10 - 3 - 1