Unlike a recent article here at SBR that included the Stars and Kings in the Western Conference playoff hunt, Vegas Dave is taking no Chance’s on those NHL also-rans.

Chance Harper did a piece on injury woes in the Western Conference and the effects they had on the playoff race keying on the Minnesota Wild, Dallas Stars, and Los Angeles Kings. This made me chuckle as the Kings are all but a mathematical certainty to miss the playoffs at this point – a 9-0 finish would give them under a 50% chance of making it in – and the Stars are all but an afterthought as well.

Here’s my take on the Western Conference’s playoff race, focusing on teams that are actually relevant.

SportsClubStats.com is a pretty neat site that simulates the remainder of the season millions of times and spits out percentages on each team’s chances of making the playoffs. Nothing too scientific, but I’ve included these percentages in this article as a frame of reference.

LOOKING GOOD

6. Columbus Blue Jackets (83 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (Cgy, @StL, StL, Nsh, @Nsh, Chi, @Chi, @StL, Min)
Home/Away: 5 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 94.2

Funny what a little defense can do. Ken Hitchcock was brought on board during the 2006-07 season to turn this team around, and turn it around he has. Preaching a tough physical game and defensive responsibility, the pieces finally fell together this season for the Blue Jackets, who are 9th in the league in GAA (2.70), and 5th in the league in shots against. Excellent goaltending from rookie Steve Mason has led to the Blue Jackets’ surprise success this season. Mason leads the league in shutouts with 9, and is 2nd only to Boston’s Tim Thomas in goals against.

Even with the explosive Rick Nash at the helm, the offense is a serious concern for the Jackets (including the league’s worst power play), and will likely keep them from advancing past the first round in the playoffs. With a 5 point cushion and 6 of their remaining 9 games against teams on the outside looking in, it looks like the Blue Jackets will definitely make the playoffs this year; a feat they have never accomplished. They have already had a historic season in clinching their first winning record in franchise history.

7. Anaheim Ducks (80 points)
Games Remaining: 8 (Edm, Col, @Edm, @Van, @SJ, SJ, Dal, @Phx)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 66.3

The Ducks have certainly found a good time to get hot, winning 5 straight games to go from long shots to favorites to make it into the playoffs this year. Led by a solid mix of bright young stars in Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan and seasoned veterans like Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, and Teemu Selanne, this team is clicking and they certainly know from experience how to step their level of play up for big games. Goaltender Jonas Hiller has done an outstanding job keeping the ducks afloat when JS Giguere has not been able.

Playing some of their best hockey of the year and having arguably the easiest schedule of the remaining playoff hopefuls, the Ducks look poised to earn a playoff berth for the 4th straight year.

ONLY ONE SPOT LEFT

8. Edmonton Oilers (79 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (@Phx, @Ana, Min, Ana, SJ, Van, LA, Cgy, Cgy)
Home/Away: 6 Home, 3 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 52.1

Looking at Edmonton’s team statistics, it is hard to figure out how they are in a playoff spot at all. The Oilers are ranked 16th in goals for (2.78), 22nd in goals against (2.99), 22nd in power play scoring % (16.9%), 27th on the penalty kill (77.0%), 29th in shots for per game (27.8), and 25th in shots against per game (32.5). While stats can certainly be deceiving and can’t measure things like timely “clutch” goals and saves, it is hard to look at these numbers and be all too enthusiastic about the Oilers’ chances.

Usually a very fast and strong skating team that produces plenty of offense, the Oilers really haven’t looked it this season. Acquiring Patrick O’Sullivan for Erik Cole was a great trade on paper (and likely long term), but O’Sullivan has had trouble adapting to Edmonton’s system and hasn’t done much on offense despite getting plenty of top-6 minutes. With two “easy” games left on the schedule (Phoenix and Los Angeles), the Oilers may very well outlast the teams knocking on the door; but I believe there are better teams behind them.

9. Nashville Predators (78 points)
Games Remaining: 9 (SJ, LA, @Det, @Clb, @Chi, Clb, Chi, @Det, @Min)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 5 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 25.8

Year in and year out, coach Barry Trotz finds a way to get the most out of his players and keep them competitive, regardless of how many players are injured or lost to free agency. Losing many of his top forwards over the last couple of years to both, Trotz has geared the team towards playing defense. The Predators are eighth in the league in GAA and third-best on the penalty kill, led by the surprising goaltending of Pekke Rinne, a towering 6-5 goaltender with the flexibility of a much smaller one. Rinne’s combination of size, speed, and good positioning have earned him the league’s third-best goals against average and fourth-best save percentage.

But is great goaltending and defense going to be enough to separate from this pack with such a quiet offense? I don’t believe so; Minnesota has a similar team makeup, but their defensive play and special teams is even better. Nashville will likely stay competitive down the stretch, but it will take some surprising wins over some tough teams to earn them a spot.

10. Minnesota Wild (78 points)
Games Remaining: 8 (@Cgy, @Edm, Van, Cgy, @Det, Dal, Nsh, @Clb)
Home/Away: 4 Home, 4 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 31.8

Minnesota has two things going for them; one of the league’s best defensive systems, and the return of one of the league’s dominant forwards.

Losing leading scorer Mikko Koivu was certainly a tremendous blow to a team already devoid of much offense, but the timely return from injury of all-star Marian Gaborik certainly helps lessen the blow. Gaborik is one of those players that is a legitimate threat to score a goal every time he is on the ice; something Minnesota has been lacking all season. The emotional boost that comes with getting a player of his caliber back just in time to make an impact in the playoff race certainly doesn’t hurt, either.

This team is tops in the league in defense year after year. Signing goaltender Niklas Backstrom to a multi-year extension was a wise move by the front office, as he has solidified the net for this team for the last three years. Minnesota is second in the league in goals against, and second in the league on the penalty kill. And despite their poor offense, they are still above average with the extra attacker, scoring on just under one in every five power plays.

In the post-lockout NHL, shutdown defense alone isn’t enough to go all the way; you need some offense to go with it. But one of the league’s absolute best defenses with great special teams has a good shot at making the playoffs, and should have some pretty tempting prices on most of their remaining games.

MAYBE NEXT YEAR

11. St. Louis Blues (77 points)
Games Remaining: 9
Home/Away: 3 Home, 6 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 23.4

Sitting right in the thick of things at the trade deadline, the Blues had to make a choice; trade some picks and prospects to go get some players to put them over the top and make them a real contender, or trade veteran players for picks and prospects to look ahead to the future. The Blues did not make a choice, and the trade deadline quietly passed, leaving them a long shot to make the playoffs and without any extra assets to show for it.

12. Dallas Stars (74 points)
Games Remaining: 9
Home/Away: 4 Home, 5 Away
Sportsclubstats.com %: 6.4

Plagued by injuries to key players like Sergei Zubov and Brad Richards, as well as wildly inconsistent play across the board, this season has just been a mess for the Dallas Stars. With the Los Angeles Kings and Phoenix Coyotes making strides to get younger and better over the last few years, the Stars are going to be in need of a full rebuild in the near future.

BETTING OPPORTUNITIES

As far as futures go, I’d consider putting a bit down on the Stanley Cup win for the Anaheim Ducks and the Minnesota Wild. I don’t actually think either team will win the Cup, but 5Dimes has Anaheim at +5000 and The Greek has Minnesota at +7250.

With Anaheim’s recent playoff success and confidence, a first round upset wouldn’t be out of the question, especially against a team like the Sharks, who have a ton of pressure on them and have had plenty of recent issues in the playoffs. Having a team in the quarterfinals at +5000 should make it easy to hedge out a bit of profit.

As for the Wild, they have a realistic chance of making the playoffs, which makes the +7250 a great price. They are almost certain to lose in the first round, but once again, hedging out a profit with a +7250 ticket in your pocket should be manageable.

As for individual games down the stretch, I’d stay away from betting the Ducks, as their recent hot streak has caught everyone’s attention and their odds won’t be very advantageous. I wouldn’t consider blindly betting or fading any team, but keep an eye on Edmonton and Minnesota. The numbers will likely be right to bet against Edmonton and bet for Minnesota as the season winds down.

But no matter what you bet, enjoy the hockey down the stretch! And don’t go quoting Chance Harper around your friends and mentioning the Los Angeles Kings and playoffs in the same sentence.

(http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10631/minnesota-wild-good-bet-surprise-west-playoff-push.aspx)

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