In what should be no surprise to anyone in the sports world, the New York Yankees find themselves the favorite to win it all heading into the new season. But will this be the year that they break the slump?

Projected Lineup and Rotation (per www.cbssports.com)

Lineup:

1. Johnny Damon (LF)
2. Derek Jeter (SS)
3. Mark Teixeira (1B)
4. Alex Rodriguez (3B)
5. Jorge Posada (C)
6. Hideki Matsui (DH)
7. Xavier Nady (RF)
8. Robinson Cano (2B)
9. Melky Cabrera (CF)

*Nick Swisher will alternate in as well.

Rotation:

1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J Burnett
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

A few names change here and there, but this year’s Yankee lineup has the exact same effect on me that it does every year; it makes my jaw drop to the floor in awe. The term “not fair” comes to mind. Guys like Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher, heart of the order type of guys for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox respectively, now find themselves fighting for a spot in the bottom of this order. If Posada and Matsui can stay healthy, they round out a downright lethal top 6, and even if they can’t, the Yankees will certainly have options to fill those holes. I don’t really need to go into much detail on this offense, do I? It speaks for itself.

The issue for the Yankees has not been the lineup for quite some time. Yes it will have the occasional dry spell like any other team, sometimes in untimely places such as the playoffs, but you can’t really assemble much better of a lineup then the one the New York Yankees have. The focus, and the make or break aspect to the Yankees season, is once again the success of the starting pitching.

(Wait a second Dave! You can’t just move on to talking about pitching without weighing in on the Alex Rodriguez scandal!)

Right, of course. Because you really need another take on this? I’m going to spare you the page long babble for two reasons.
1. Nothing I say, no opinion I could possibly have, could be anything that you haven’t already read or heard, seeing as everyone and their uncle has already beaten the topic to death.
2. He is Alex Rodriguez. He is the best hitter of this generation. He lives and breathes controversy and media scrutiny. He will not be adversely affected by all this, and if he stays healthy, he will put up the same superhuman numbers he has every other year in his incredible career.

So now that we’ve got that out of the way, can we move on to pitching?

In CC Sabathia, the Yankees finally have the true ace they have been lacking over the last few years. They finally have a guy that they can send to the mound against the other team’s best and expect a win every time. No slight on Mike Mussina or Chien-Ming Wang or Kevin Brown (okay, maybe a bit of a slight on Kevin Brown), these aren’t the guys you want to be sending to the mound in a game 1 or a game 7 against your opponents ace. Even though Sabathia’s numbers will very likely take a dip from his stint with the Brewers, I still have little doubt that he can be counted on in key spots for the entire season if healthy.

But this is where the “sure thing” list ends. In Burnett you have a dynamic pitcher that can be flat out overpowering, but the injury risk is always there. Burnett is no stranger to the disabled list, Pitching over 175 innings only 3 times in his 10 season career. Last season went without any problems as he logged 221.1 innings; but if he manages to pitch 200 innings this season, it will be the first time ever in his career that he has done so in back to back seasons.

Chien-Ming Wang has been extremely consistent in his time with the Yankees and gives them a chance to win just about every time he hits the mound with his excellent sinker ball. But after missing most of last year with a foot injury, it isn’t a sure thing that the injury won’t linger, or that it won’t have any mental effects on the mound.

Andy Pettitte is still a serviceable option, but last year’s 4.54 ERA (his 3rd straight year with an ERA over 4.00) isn’t going to strike fear into opposing batters, and at 36 (turning 37 in June) he isn’t a likely candidate to show much improvement this year. Last season he pitched through a sore shoulder; how much longer can his body and his arm hold up?

Which brings us to the young guys. Joba Chamberlain emerged as an elite set-up man before making the switch to starting pitcher, where he pitched very well. But is he ready for a fulltime spot? Last year the Yankees leaned too heavily on a pair of young arms in Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to disastrous results. Chamberlain seems ready to be a star, but you can’t just pencil him in as an ace until he’s proven he can be one over the course of a season. And when (not if, when) the injury bug starts plaguing the middle of the rotation, will Phil Hughes be ready to start meeting his potential?

I actually believe that Phil Hughes could potentially have a big year this year. The kid has way too much talent to be held down for long, and it wouldn’t be the first time in baseball history that a young talented pitcher got off to a rough start in the big leagues and then turned things around.

The point of bringing up all these questions in the Yankees rotation isn’t to try and convince you that this isn’t the team to beat, because it most certainly is. The batting order is lethal, and this rotation as well as a solid bullpen led by Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte should do just fine in giving this offense a chance to win night in and night out.

What it should convince you of is to try to stay away from the futures on this team. The Greek (www.thegreek.com) has the Yankees going off at +360 to win it all and the over/under on regular season wins is set at 97.5 (Over +105, Under -125). The question marks in the rotation as well as the injury risks across the board, the rigors of a 162 game season in arguably the toughest division in baseball, followed by a best-of-5 series in the playoffs where a few bounces can decide your season make it awfully hard for me to find value in the +360 to win it all.

These same factors make it hard for me to consider the over 97.5 wins, too, as a lot of things have to fall just right to win 98 games in this league. This team is plenty good enough though, which dissuades me from taking the under as well; but if I had to make a play, the under would be the side I’d take.

On the spot prediction: 96 to 100 wins, win the AL East.

(http://vegasdave.mysbrforum.com/blog/2433-vegas-dave-s-mlb-season-previews-new-york-yankees.html)

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