NFL Draft Review: Bad Teams That Might Get Better

By , April 27, 2009

With 256 draft picks now in the books, all we have to look forward to is the start of the NFL season. Which teams gave themselves the best chance to be a “surprise team” early in 2009? Teams like the New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers have proven year in and year out that they know what the draft is all about, and their success won’t catch anyone off guard. But whose draft will?

I have three that you should at the very least keep your eyes open for.

Oakland Raiders, 5-11-0 moneyline, 7-9-0 ATS

I know, you just rolled your eyes. While the public scrutiny on the Raiders has always been tough, it has gotten to a point where it is flat out ridiculous. The hatred and ridicule of this team has gotten so bad that you can almost expect 2 to 3 points on the spread in your favor every single time you bet the Raiders because people hate them so much they will fade them at any cost.

Let’s put aside for a second how much of a “reach” certain players were, how embarrassing Oakland is, how much of a senile old man Al Davis is. What’s done is done. And while it may not have been the best run draft by a long shot, the truth is that the Raiders added some key pieces to a very raw and very talented offense.

Vastly underrated QB Jamarcus Russell (one of the magnets to all this hate) managed a 13 to 8 TD to INT ratio last year despite having one of (if not the) worst WR cores in the league and playing in his first full season and going through a coaching change in the middle of it. How you get labeled a bust through all that is beyond me. Behind him he has an excellent RB core including Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and Zach Miller and Johnny Lee Higgins emerged through the darkness last year as well. This raw young offense has had a year to play together and develop, and it should pay huge dividends, as they showed flashes of what they were capable of in late wins over Houston and Tampa Bay last season.

Hate him or not, Darrius Heyward-Bey does have the tools to be a weapon, even if he wasn’t the “right” pick. Fourth round pick WR Louis Murphy out of Florida can step in right away as well. Sixth round pick TE Brandon Myers will help with run blocking, and out of a two TE system allow for Zach Miller to run more routes.

Not that this article is going to change any Raider-Haters mind. But whether you choose to ignore it or not, this team does have a wealth of young talent and will get the extra betting edge almost every single time they play due to public perception against them. Don’t be one of the sheep that blindly hates them, this might be the year they make you pay for it ATS.

Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 moneyline, 7-9 ATS

This team fought a lot harder then their record would indicate last season, but they just didn’t have the talent to keep up with most teams. A healthy Carson Palmer is the key to any success that the Bengals may have next season; and they wisely passed on Michael Crabtree and made the right choice in drafting OT Andre Smith in the first round, taking a step towards protecting their most prized asset.

Acquisitions of LB Ray Maualuga and DE Michael Johnson should make an impact immediately. Both are extremely quick and have an uncanny ability to get to the opposing team’s quarterback. Both of these guys should force plenty of mistakes, and with the drafting of punter Kevin Huber planting team’s deep in their own zone, they will get plenty of chances.

TE Chase Coffman would have been drafted higher had he not had a foot injury, and he has great hands and size at the position. He should also prove to be a valuable weapon to Carson Palmer.

All and all, it was very quietly a solid draft by the Bengals. They used their first pick to get a guy to protect Palmer, and their second and third pick to add some speed and killer instinct to the defense. Coach Marvin Lewis should have fun with these guys, and the Bengals could very easily take a big step back towards respectability this season, and you can make money on it while everyone else is worried about what will be printed on the back of Chad Johnson’s jersey.

Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-11-0 moneyline, 4-12 ATS

It seems like forever ago that we were considering this team a Super Bowl sleeper and the type of team that matched up well enough to potentially beat the undefeated Patriots, doesn’t it? But it wasn’t that long ago.

A massive fall from grace is going to happen when a smash mouth team loses 3 of its 4 starting offensive linemen to injury to start the season. Less time in the pocket meant less effectiveness for QB David Gerrard, and less holes to run through make it harder for the running game to move the chains.

Many panic-mode type of teams would have used high draft picks on say a wide receiver, but the Jaguars know what they are and know what leads them to success. Back to back offensive lineman picks in Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton helps them get back on track on the line right away.

On defense, the Jaguars gave opposing quarterbacks way too much time to throw, and had trouble covering the long ball. Using their two third round picks on DE Terrance Knighton and CB Derek Cox addressed both of those holes

And then after shoring up their offensive line and defensive needs, Jacksonville went bargain hunting on wide receivers, adding Arizona’s Mike Thomas, Rice’s Jarett Dillard, and Rutgers Tiquan Underwood. They also added speedy TE Zach Miller (no, not the Raider guy, but it may get awfully confusing someday). My money is on Dillard, but all three of these guys showed flashes of brilliance at the collegiate level, and if any one of them develops into a reliable WR it will cap off what looks to me like a very successful draft.

Unlike the Bengals and Raiders, this team was actually good in very recent history, so we may not be able to catch the bookmakers or the public sleeping on these guys. But I’d still circle their games on my schedule early in the season just in case, because the resurgence of the offensive line may be all this team needs to get back in the playoff hunt.

(And as for those of you wondering where the New York Jets piece is? That is exactly the problem. While their draft certainly had merit, it has been so widely praised and blown up in the media that I don’t believe we will catch many favorable lines next year; in fact, the exact opposite).

(http://sbrforum.com/Free+Picks/NFL/10901/nfl-draft-review-bad-teams-might-get-better.aspx)

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