The Bruins owned the East during the regular season, but all records return to 0-0 now. What four teams will take the next step towards Lord Stanley’s Cup, and what four will go home?

There is no greater trophy in professional sports than the Stanley Cup, and there is no greater postseason than the National Hockey League’s. These are facts, not opinions. Hockey fans know these facts to be true, some casual fans have come to accept them, and others are simply in denial.

No matter what category you fall into, me writing pages upon pages about how incredible the intensity of this amazing sport is in the playoffs won’t do me any good. For those of you that already know, I’d just be preaching to the choir. For those of you that don’t, well, words simply don’t do it justice. Make sure you watch some games this postseason.

Lets get to the good part, trying to predict the unpredictable, and trying to find betting value in the process.

#1 Boston Bruins (-320) VS. #8 Montreal Canadians (+260)
It is very interesting that both one vs. eight seed matchups mirror each other in the sense that recent playoff history strongly favors the eight seed, but regular season play of course favors the one seed. Over the last seven years the Boston Bruins have met the Montreal Canadians in the playoffs three times (07-08, 03-04, 01-02), and all three times the Bruins have been defeated. There is no question that the Boston Bruins are aware of this; the media certainly won’t let them forget.

But is it really so shocking in such a storied rivalry that a team could win three straight series against a bitter rival? Has everyone forgotten that before this stretch, the four meetings between these two teams in the playoffs had all gone the Bruins’ way?

Yes, the early 90’s are ancient history. But this decade will be too, someday. The Boston Bruins are a substantially better team 5-on-5, both in goal scoring and in physical play. Carey Price, while undoubtedly a good young goaltender with a bright future ahead of him, has not looked sharp at all this season (31st in the league in GAA and SV%), while Tim Thomas has been the absolute best in the game (1st in the league in GAA and SV%). As if the evidence wasn’t overwhelming enough, the Canadians have lost defenseman Andrei Markov to injury for at least the first 4-5 games of this series. Markov was the team’s second leading scorer and the foundation of their team, leading the team in ice time and quarterbacking the power play.

The Bruins don’t need to look any further than their backyard to the Red Sox for a reminder that curses come to an end. You are getting the substantially better team here that won the season series 5-0-1 at a discounted price due to superstition. I liked this series price at -400, but the Habs faithful (unsurprisingly) have brought the price down substantially, and this is a series well worth eating the chalk on.

PREDICTION: Boston in 5

BEST BET: Boston to win the series at anything under -400

#2 Washington Capitals (-230) VS. #7 New York Rangers (+190)
This is a true battle of clashing styles; the flashy offense of the Washington Capitals VS. the stingy defense of the New York Rangers. Each team’s strength is the other team’s weakness; the Capitals did a below average job keeping the puck out of their own net during the regular season, and the Rangers were a pitiful 28th out of 30 in scoring.

So who wins when two teams on the opposite side of the spectrum meet? The easy answer would be the Capitals; they did have the better record during the regular season, and their defensive stats aren’t nearly as poor as the Rangers’ offensive stats. But is it really as easy as just looking at league rankings in a few key stats? Of course not.

I actually believe that the Rangers are the team better built for the playoffs. While a great offense can sometimes overrule lackluster defense and goaltending, when the playoffs roll around, these high powered teams often run into a stone wall type of defense and goaltender and get shut down. Granted, the Rangers offense is going to have to pitch in; but unless Jose Theodore miraculously finds his form from years ago, this doesn’t seem all that unlikely.

Playoff experience heavily favors the Rangers as well, and while their offense may have been terrible during the regular season, it is hard to imagine playoff veterans like Chris Drury and Scott Gomez being kept quiet in the playoffs.

In the end, it will simply come down to which team is able to control the tempo of the series. If Alexander Ovechkin can lead his offense to open up the game and create a fast paced run-and-gun style, there is no way that the Rangers will be able to keep up. If the Rangers can find a way to slow the game down and put the emphasis on puck possession and defense, it will be Washington that looks outclassed. While Washington does deserve the edge (and the home ice advantage that they have earned), I put this series a lot closer to 50/50 than this series price does. Sharp bettors have been pounding the Rangers, and their price keeps falling, but there is still value to be had.

PREDICTION: New York in 6

BEST BET: New York to win series at anything over +150

#3 New Jersey Devils (-135) VS. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+115)

When Martin Brodeur was injured earlier this season, many wrote the Devils off; but soon came to regret it. With Patrick Elias and Zach Parise leading the way, the new-look offensively talented Devils dominated the Eastern Conference with only the Bruins faring any better. When Brodeur returned, the winning continued as Brodeur went 8-1 in his first nine games back, becoming the NHL’s all-time leader in wins by a goaltender in the process.

And then for some unexplainable reason, the wheels fell off. From March 18 to April 1, the Devils went 1-6-1, losing the No. 2 seed in the East in the process. Since the skid New Jersey has recovered a bit, winning four of their last five games, but they haven’t really convinced anyone that they have completely righted the ship.

Carolina on the other hand has been taking big strides in the right direction. Through a 3-way deal involving the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers, the Hurricanes traded injured star Justin Williams to receive unrestricted free agent to be Erik Cole. On paper the trade looked like nothing more than a desperation move, trading away a proven 30-goal scorer who was under contract for two more years for a guy struggling in Edmonton, hoping to re-kindle the magic from the team that made the Cup run in 2006.

And re-kindle it did. Since Erik Cole’s return to the lineup the Hurricanes are 12-3-2. Cole’s 15 points in 17 games has also sparked Carolina’s franchise player Eric Staal. While the team’s improved play can’t all be put on Cole’s shoulders, there is little question that his presence on and off the ice has the Hurricanes feeling like that Stanley Cup team again.

Will the Devils and the greatest goaltender of all time simply “turn it on” for the playoffs, or will the hot team prevail? It really is a very evenly matched series, so it is easy to argue the value is in Carolina on the +side of things. But in the end, when I look at a this Devils team on paper, I just can’t believe they are going to roll over in the first round. I wouldn’t bet them against a hot Carolina team, but I do think they pull it off in a tough one.

PREDICTION: New Jersey in 7

BEST BET: None

#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) VS. #5 Philadelphia Flyers (+140)
This series should just be a joy to watch. A rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Championship game, one of these teams will be going home a lot earlier this year. These teams hate each other, and in the playoffs when everything is magnified, it is going to be an ugly, physical series.

Both teams have explosive offenses and average goaltending; in fact, on top of finishing the regular season with identical point totals, the Penguins and Flyers were also remarkably similar in goals for and goals against, with Philadelphia recording 3.17 goals for and 2.83 goals against to Pittsburgh’s 3.15 goals for and 2.84 goals against.

Philadelpia’s attack is incredibly deep, throwing six 25+ goal scorers at you in Joffrey Lupul, Mike Knuble, Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, and Scott Hartnell; the latter four notching 30+ this season. And this list doesn’t even include Daniel Briere, who would have easily been a member of this club had he played a full season. But he is back in the lineup now, and rounds off an absolutely lethal offense.

Of course, Pittsburgh does have two of the league’s top three scorers in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Adding Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin at the deadline just gave the Penguins even more talent to utilize their franchise centers with. With Jordan Staal centering the third line, the Penguins are virtually unstoppable up the middle three lines deep.

In what promises to be a great and potentially high scoring series, I have to give the edge to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Under head coach Dan Bylsma, the Penguins finished the season 18-3-4, and looked every bit like a defending Eastern Conference champion should. Despite the Flyers wealth of talent, I just can’t see the Penguins getting bounced in the first round. That said, there really isn’t any value betting them, as the public’s adoration of Crosby and Malkin has inflated this line way too high for such evenly matched teams. If I had to bet it, I’d take Philadelphia and the +odds, as they certainly don’t deserve to be a +140 dog here.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh in 6

BEST BET: Philadelphia to win series if it climbs up over +150

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10783/pittsburgh-penguins-philadelphia-flyers-battle-race-stanley-cup.aspx)

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