NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview

By , May 4, 2009

While Boston and Carolina should provide a fast paced, all eyes in the East are on the Penguins, Capitals showdown including the league’s three top scorers in Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, and Evgeni Malkin.

#1 Boston Bruins (-215) vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes (+185)

Boston made quick work of the Montreal Canadians, going an extremely impressive 4-0 on the moneyline AND the puckline. They scored at least four goals in every game and never gave up more than two, making it pretty clear that unlike San Jose, they weren’t just going to roll over in the playoffs. The series trended over due to Boston’s high powered offense, finishing at 3-1-0.

Carolina comes off of an evenly matched series against the New Jersey Devils. They were 4-3 on the moneyline, 1-2 as the favorite on the puckline, and 3-1 on the puckline as the underdog. Their series against the Devils trended slightly under at 2-3-2.

Carolina has that “it” factor that you can’t quite put into words, but it is what makes them so dangerous in the playoffs. With a post lockout Stanley Cup under their belts and much of the same core that earned it for them still in place, this team has the confidence to win in the playoffs, and late-game heroics against the greatest goaltender of all time proved that once again.

But in Boston, Carolina meets a team that could not be a worse match-up for them. Carolina does many things well; they roll multiple scoring lines, they play a physical game, and they get great goaltending. The problem? The Bruins play the exact same style of game, but they play it better.

Trying to predict how playoff series are going to go is a lot more difficult when dealing with teams with conflicting styles, as you can only guess which team will control the tempo and force the other team out of their element. But when both teams play the same brand of hockey, it is simply a matter of who plays it better. If Carolina sticks to what got them here, this will be a quick series. If they try to deviate from what got them here and be something they are not? It’ll be even quicker.

During the regular season, these teams met four times, and all four times Boston won; twice by the score of 4-2 and twice by the score of 5-1. While the intensity of the playoffs may not allow it to be quite so easy this time around, I have no reason to believe that the results will be much different.

PREDICTION: Boston in 5
BETTING STRATEGY: Boston on the puckline in individual games. Boston series win at -215.  I’d also lay a wager on Boston in 4 at +805 and Boston in 5 at +425. Overs are likely to be prevelant as well, but both of these goaltenders are capable of big games.

#2 Washington Capitals (-110) vs. #4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-110)

Washington got into some early trouble against the Rangers down 3-1, but won three straight elimination games to end up 4-3 on the moneyline and 3-4 on the puckline. Due to the sharp goaltending in the early part of the series by Henrik Lundqvist and in the latter parts by Simeon Varlamov, the series stayed under the majority of the time at 2-5-0.

Pittsburgh out dueled cross-state rival Philadelphia, finishing up 4-2 on the moneyline. They were 2-1 on the puckline as a favorite and 2-1 on the puckline as an underdog as well. Despite two of the highest powered offenses in the league facing off, the series stayed under more often than not at 2-4-0.

This is the series that the NHL and its fans wanted. The league’s three most elite scorers; the Capital’s Alexander Ovechkin and the Pittsburgh Penguin’s Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin will showdown in an all-out slugfest.

I get giddy just visualizing this series in a playoff atmosphere. But from a capper’s standpoint, it’s pretty damn tough to cap. Much like the Boston Carolina series, this series matches up two teams that play virtually the exact same game; attack attack attack. Usually, the team on the opposite side of the ice is overwhelmed by all of the talent being thrown at them; but in this series neither team will give any ground in the talent department.

It will come down to who wins the goaltender battle, and who fights it out in the corners just a little harder. If Jose Theodore was in net, the answer would be a lot clearer; but relatively unknown Simeon Varlamov has burst onto the scene in impressive fashion; and any goaltender that can win three straight elimination games in the playoffs as a rookie clearly has the mental toughness to compete at this level. Marc-Andre Fluery has had consistency issues in the past, but when he is on, he can be dangerous as well.

I believe Washington of the tougher team and will win those battles in the corner just a little more often, which may end up being the difference; but then again, Pittsburgh out-muscled Philadelphia who also has the reputation of being a gritty team.

I can’t even advise betting the overs in this series, as everyone with access to a gambling account will be doing the same thing, likely driving every O/U to 6 and possibly even 6.5. That said, would you really dare bet the under against these two teams either?

Personally, I’d just kick back and watch this series. Too many other events to bet on in the world of sports to try to tackle this one! My gut tells me Washington edges Pittsburgh out, but since I’ve been losing my gut on a diet over the last few months, I don’t know who to trust anymore.

PREDICTION: Washington in 7
BETTING STRATEGY: None. If you must, bet the team you are rooting for. Or from a value standpoint, bet the team with the +odds, as all the games in this series could go either way.

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NHL/10937/penguins-capitals-highlight-eastern-semifinals.aspx)

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