Since losing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl in the 2002 season, the Raiders have spiraled out of control, going six straight seasons without winning more than five games. Will this be the year that they do?

Bookmakers simply don’t know what to do with this team. They see the potential for them to turn the corner, and have set the lines accordingly over the last few years, last year setting the season win total at six or 6.5; only for Raider haters to prevail with fatter pockets as the team only finished with five wins.

This year, bookmakers have set the Raiders’ season win total at 5.5 (Over -140, Under +110), accepting the fact that even if they believe the Raiders will win six games, the betting public is going to pound the under regardless, so they might as well set the line accordingly. With an extra year of experience under the young offense’s belt and a head coach that they got to know last year still on board, a one win improvement seems pretty realistic to me.

The offense is led by the vastly underrated QB Jamarcus Russell, who managed a 13 to 8 TD to INT ratio last year despite having one of (if not the) worst WR cores in the league and playing in his first full season and going through a coaching change in the middle of it. How you get labeled a bust through all that is beyond me. Behind him he has an excellent RB core including Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and TE Zach Miller and WR Johnny Lee Higgins emerged through the darkness last year as well. This raw young offense has had a year to play together and develop, and it should pay huge dividends, as they showed flashes of what they were capable of in late wins over Houston and Tampa Bay last season.

Hate the pick or not, Darrius Heyward-Bey does have the tools to be a weapon, even if he wasn’t the “right” pick. Fourth round pick WR Louis Murphy out of Florida can step in right away as well. Sixth round pick TE Brandon Myers will help with run blocking, and out of a two TE system allow for Zach Miller to run more routes.

The defense is a tough unit to figure out. Last year they did well against he pass but horribly against the run; a trend that will likely continue if the team doesn’t step up their efforts on the defensive line. There is plenty of talent in the linebacking core at with DeAngelo Hall (who was a terrible fit in Oakland) gone, the 1-2 CB punch of Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson should have another strong year. With even marginal improvement on the line, the Raiders should be more cohesive as a unit in 2009.

While the Kansas City Chiefs got stronger, the Denver Broncos got worse. Breaking in a new coach and losing the division’s best QB in Jay Cutler, it should be a tough season for the Broncos; and the Chiefs still have too many problems to magically transform into a great team overnight. Shawne Merriman should give the Chargers defense a much needed boost, and they will be the class of the division again this year; but they are getting older and Ladainian Tomlinson isn’t what he used to be. Darren Sproles will be able to shoulder the load if need be, but he’s no LT.

I can see the Raiders winning three of their six in-division games. Be it a sweep of either the Broncos/Chiefs and one win against the other, or grabbing an upset against San Diego, I don’t think the Raiders are substantially worse than the Chiefs/Broncos in 2009. So looking at the remaining ten games on the schedule, I have it broken down as follows;

Good chance to win: New York Jets, Cincinnati, @Cleveland
Good chance to lose: @Houston, Philadelphia, Washington
WILL lose: @New York Giants, @Pittsburgh, @Dallas, Baltimore

But remember, this is the NFL. Every week teams that aren’t supposed to win do win. There will also be a team or two with a key injury that isn’t what they look like on paper come their game against Oakland.

As such, I’ve got the Raiders winning three out of six against division rivals, two out of three in my “good chance to win” category, and one or two out of the seven remaining tough games. That puts the Raiders at 6-10 or 7-9 in 2009.

The Play: Oakland Raiders Season Win Total Over 5.5 (-140)

(http://sbrforum.com/Betting%20Articles/NFL/11517/oakland-raiders-over-5-5-wins-2009.aspx)

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