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By Dave Consolazio, November 27, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Happy Turkey Day everyone!

Hopefully most of you will be spending your Thanksgiving around friends and family, enjoying a nice home-cooked meal.

Me? Thanks to the kind folks at SBR who decided to fire me with no warning/reason, I’ll be spending Thanksgiving packing up my stuff for a drive halfway across the country this upcoming weekend. At least my Dad is out here to help.

So we’ll be going to a restaurant to eat Thanksgiving dinner. Once again, I can’t thank SBR enough!

Ok, ok, enough bitterness. I haven’t slept well at all this week, anxious about the impending move, so I am, admittedly, cranky.

But I am thankful to be headed home to my loving friends and family, and to get to work on new and exciting business ventures.

I’m also thankful that, despite not being around extended family, I still have the chance to publically humiliate myself thanks to the Dime. What would I do without it?

All kidding aside, I’m also thankful for all of you that take the time to read my stuff every week (or even once every now and then) and support me. It really means a lot to me, so thank you for that.

You’d better not be reading this without a drumstick or some other foodstuff in your hand! And if you are, why on earth aren’t you eating?! It’s Thanksgiving!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 13 – 3 – 0 (.813)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 81 – 78 – 1 (.509)
Without the spread: 109 – 51 – 0 (.681)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 – 5 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Green Bay (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5)
The Packers are obviously the better team, but Detroit is going to be playing with a lot of confidence and a lot of excitement after the thrilling win over Cleveland. Confidence/excitement may not be enough to pick up the win, but I do think it could be enough to make for a decent Thanksgiving Day game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas (-13.5)
Trust me, I’m not going to go all “Oakland is good now that they have Gradkowski leading them” on you. That said, should Dallas really be giving up two touchdowns here? They’ve shown very serious issues against press coverage (something the Raiders are capable of applying), scoring only 7 points in each of the last two weeks. This one has the looks of an ugly, low-scoring game to me, not a Dallas blowout.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-6.0) @ Denver (+6.0)
Denver is done. Whatever cloud they were playing on has dissipated, and after the smoke has cleared, they appear to be the mediocre team we all thought they were coming into the season. The Giants haven’t been anything special, but they have more than enough to win this one by a TD I believe.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

SUNDAY

Seattle (-3.0) @ St. Louis (+3.0)
Can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking St. Louis. Seattle’s defense is just so bad that even the Rams should be able to put up points (heavy load of Steven Jackson is likely), and they are just to inconsistant to have any faith in offensively. I may end up regretting it, but I’ll take my chances on the lowly Rams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Carolina (+3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.0)
Complete honesty; I have no idea at all what to expect from this game. Two underacheiving teams with plenty of issues and inconsistant QB play. My model says 31-27 Carolina, so I’ll just run with that, and take the points while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+12.0) @ Atlanta (-12.0)
Tampa Bay’s defense is horrible, and Atlanta should come into this game plenty angry and plenty motivated. It has been a disappointing season in Atlanta, and this is not only a game they need, but a game I think they will enjoy after the frustrating OT loss to the Giants. I’m expecting a fairly one-sided affair.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo (+3.5)
Everything about this game screams Miami, they are clearly the better team and they just proved they could go out and win on the road against a similar looking team in Carolina. But for whatever reason, this just strikes me as “one of those games”. Buffalo always seems to be just a play or two away; maybe this week they make those plays.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Buffalo

Washington (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Washington has proven, in my opinion, that they deserve a little more respect than this after the win over Denver (fallen from grace or not) and the near-shutout of Dallas. Philadelphia hasn’t exactly been dominant this season. I expect them to pick up the win, but I’ll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Cincinnati (-14.0)
Much like Atlanta, I expect Cinci to be a team possessed this week after letting that Raider game slip away. Cleveland’s offense has been useless up until that last game; and it WAS Detroit. Expect things to return to normal for both teams this week, and this one to be a lot less interesting than the first meeting between these two teams earlier in the season.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston (+3.5)
Houston has lost their last two games 20-17, and Indy has been sneaking by teams by very slim margins. This one just feels like another 3 or 4 point victory for the Colts, meaning this spread was, in my opinion, set perfectly. I’ll go with the score landing on three and take the Texans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ San Francisco (-3.0)
The Jaguars have actually, against my will, made believers out of me. Maurice Jones-Drew is always a force, and the team seems to be picking up some confidence. I like them to upset the 49ers here, who still seem to be just a small step behing where they need to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego (-13.5)
Toss up here, but I can’t imagine Kansas City matching their effort from last week. San Diego is red-hot, and I’m too scared to pick against them at this point, even with all these points dangling in front of me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Yes, Chicago is bad. Yes, Minnesota is outstanding. I’m still not willing to give up 10.5 points in what is always a physical, smashmouth rivalry game. Chicago just kept it close against Philadelphia, and I’ll be looking for them to do the same against the Vikings.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Arizona (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
The Titans, and more noticeably Vince Young, are back. Young has pumped the team full of energy, and they have responded extremely well on both sides of the ball. While it will likely end up being too little too late, I wouldn’t tell that to the Titans right now; and i wouldn’t go against them at home right now, either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore (-2.5)
Even if Big Ben plays as it appears he will be, I don’t expect him to be at 100%. Baltimore has been so close all season to getting over the hump, and this is their chance. I expect them to take it with Polamalu out and Big Ben nursing a concussion.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

MONDAY

New England (+2.0) @ New Orleans (-2.0)
Wow, what a great game this should be. Will be a lot of fun to see just how good the Saints are, and will also be fun to see how the Patriots’ defense responds to this opportunity to prove themselves. The Pats have been winning big games like this for almost a decade now; the Saints, not so much. I’ll take the Pats, but it does look like a good ol’ fashion coinflip.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New England

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 13 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5FEK5tRgBQ

Rutgers -3.0
Central Florida -3.0
Nebraska/Colorado Over 38.0
Nevada/Boise State Over 70.0

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, November 20, 2009 10:00 am

Hey everyone! Sorry, I know this is way too close to game time to be useful to anyone, but still wanted to get it out for keeping an accurate records’ sake. Will try to get the rest of the Dime out a bit earlier this week!

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
I think Miami is a much better football team than they get credit for. They are splod on both sides of the ball, and while they aren’t on the level they were last year, they can still compete. Losing Ronnie Brown hurts quite a bit, but I think the team has enough to rally and prove that they can still win without him. Carolina is starting to pick up some momentum, but I think the Dolphins can pull off the upset tonight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

It’s a running joke among fans (and critics) of the show HOUSE how formulaic every episode is. Goes a little something like…

Opening scene, random people, one of them (usually not the one you’d expect) starts spazzing out – House takes the case, tells his team to run a bunch of tests while insulting them – patient gets worse (commercial break) – House and the gang treat the patient and he seems to be better but then gets much worse (another commercial) – House talks to his pal Wilson about something non-case related, and then it magically hits him what’s wrong with the patient.

Example: Wilson: “Are you hungry?” House: “No, you idiot, if I was hungry I would have stolen your cheeseburger (dramatic pause)”

Of course, it’s asperger’s syndrome, and House would have never realized it if he hadn’t have said burger.

Why am I blathering about House? Because I just realized that the Dime works the exact same way.

Dave goes .500 – Talks about how hard it is to break .500 – Dave goes on a winning streak – In a great mood, witty (to the best of his limited ability anyway), feels smart/knowledgeable about football – Dave goes on a losing streak – Hates football, cranky, wonders where it all went wrong, wonders why he sucks so much, realize he doesn’t know anything about football and can predict games about as well as he can predict weather – Season ends at right around .500.

Of course, what saves House is the excellent dramatic elements outside of the formulaic case, as well as his witty banter.

What saves the Dime?

Ummm… err…

At least my Philosophical Picks don’t suck, right?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 9 – 0 (.400)
Without the spread: 11 – 4 – 0 (.733)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 72 – 71 – 1 (.503)
Without the spread: 96 – 48 – 0 (.667)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
THE BAD

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

Not seeing the upsets this week… can only hope the favorites show up.

THURSDAY

Miami (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami (WIN)

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (-1.5) @ Baltimore (+1.5)
All streaks must come to an end, and I think Indy’s does this week. Plenty of history and hard-fought battles between these two teams, and the Ravens have shown the ability to pressure Manning in the past. After a sluggish start, the Ravens seem to have found a bit of a grove (minus the slip-up in Cinci), and I just have the feeling they pull off the upset.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Seattle (+10.5) @ Minnesota (-10.5)
Well, Seattle bit me pretty hard last week, letting an early lead get away AND giving up enough to not get the cover, either. Considering what a powerhouse Minnesota is, I just can’t put my trust in the Seahawks, even if it is a whole-lotta points. Their defense just isn’t what it used to be.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

New Orleans (-11.0) @ Tampa Bay (+11.0)
I’m actually laughing as I type this, because I KNOW that New Orleans is going to put it all together and blow out the Bucs now that I’m finally picking against them. That said, the Saints have fallen into this awful habit of letting everyone they play stick around, and Tampa Bay has been playing with a lot of confidence since the QB chance. I’ll take the 11 points, shaking my head the whole time.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Similar resume for these two teams; they’ve both been underacheiving quite a bit. I was expecting Atlanta to be getting 3 or 4 points, but 7? The Giants have not done anything this season to warrant being a 7-point favorite over a good football team. At home, I think they come out on top, but only by a field goal or so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Washington (+11.0) @ Dallas (-11.0)
Hard to pass on all these points in an NFC East rivalry game, but Dallas is the substantially better team. It is also a fairly perfect philosophy-like scenario that Washington is coming off of a big uplifting win and Dallas is coming off of a frustrating and embarassing loss. Books just seem to be begging you to take Washington in this spot. Alas, it isn’t a “true” philosophy pick, but it’s good enough for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Kansas City (+10.5)
It all comes down to whether or not Pittsburgh shows up. Considering they traveled to superior-AFC-west-opponent Denver’s house and beat them by 18, it is hard to make a case for the lowly Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Buffalo (+9.0) @ Jacksonville (-9.0)
The Jaguars have become “one of those teams” for me over the last few seasons. Buffalo looked to be in good shape last week against Tennessee, but then the wheels completely fell off. I don’t really get either of these teams. I figure it will play out a little something like Maurice Jones-Drew gets tons of carries and yards, the Jags score about 24, and Buffalo scores about 17-20; but again, what do I know? I feel more comfortable WITH the points in this one than giving them up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Cleveland (+3.0) @ Detroit (-3.0)
Wow. I’d flip a coin, but heads/tails wouldn’t quite do these two justice; I need an awful/dreadful coin to flip. My model says Cleveland 10 – Detroit 17. I won’t bother trying to analyze what will just come down to ugly bounces and mistakes anyway; I’ll just go with the computer.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

San Francisco (+6.5) @ Green Bay (-6.5)
Green Bay’s defense is something of a mystery; they either show up and completely dominate, or they get lit up to the tune of 30+ points. Considering they are facing a less-than-explosive offense this week, I’ll say they build on last week’s big win and pick up another one by a TD or more here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (-9.0) @ St. Louis (+9.0)
Arizona flexed their offensive muscles last week against Seattle in coming back and covering the large spread, and while St. Louis’s effort against the Saints was admirable, it doesn’t change the fact that they are a very bad football team. I don’t expect as strong of an effort this week, and the Cardinals should roll.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Cincinnati (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
Well, I’m not thrilled about having to take pathetic Oakland, but they are a Philosophy Pick this week. Last week they were favored at home and were expected to win over KC; instead, they came up short. This week, they are still at home, and this time around they are a dog. As the theory goes, they should be hungry for redemption this week. A few other things I like about Oakland here; Cinci is coming off of two straight huge emotional wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and it will be hard to get up for a game like this. Also, Jamarcus Russell is officially benched, Thank God. Gradkowski may be nothing special, but he won’t give away the game like Jamarcus does. Can’t take the outright upset, but I like the Raiders to make it a game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

San Diego (-4.0) @ Denver (+4.0)
That image of Josh McDaniels emphatically pumping his fist after defeating the Patriots seems to be a distant memory now, doesn’t it? Three straight losses later, and we are back in the familiar position of San Diego being able to take over control of the division with a win over the Broncos. I’d love to say that the Broncos have what it takes to dig deep and come up with a big win here… but I just don’t believe that will be the case. The defense and confidence have crumbled, and they are no longer playing above their heads. As such, I don’t think they can top the surging Bolts; especially with Simms in at QB.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

N.Y. Jets (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
In regards to Belichick’s decision to go for it last week, I *loved* it, as I explained here: http://bit.ly/3lAZZR. Not everyone agrees with me though. If there is anything I’ve learned over the years when it comes to the Patriots and controversy, they usually respond with a very convincing win on the field. I expect this time around to be no different.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Philadelphia (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0)
Maybe Chicago bounces back this week. But honestly, this team hasn’t really impressed me at all this season; and Jay Cutler’s disasterous results have only enforced that. Philly’s defense should continue making Cutler’s life difficult, and the offense (even without Westbrook) should be able to do enough to grab the road win.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Tennessee (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)
Alright, I’m starting to believe. Does that mean you are going to go back to sucking this week, Tennessee? My model actually shows a Titans victory in this one, and that was my initial reaction as well. They seem to be rolling and have regained their confidence; if they can continue to play at the level they have on this winning streak, they should be able to extend it this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 37 – 29 – 6 (.561)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com!

Week 12 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYav1Qf5lz0
South Florida -11.5 (WIN)
Marshall -3.0 (TIE)
Nevada -30.0 (WIN)
Arizona State +5.0 (LOSS)
ASU/UCLA Under 41.5 (WIN)
Oregon/Arizona Over 60 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, November 13, 2009 10:00 am

Hey everyone! Just a quick prediction for tonight’s game, sorry it’s so close to game time, skipped my mind that I had to send this out Thursday!

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
These teams are actually quite evenly matched, making it tempting to take the points and the Bears here. But while it doesn’t qualify as a philosophy pick due to the fact that they are a favorite again this week, the emotional-factor logic dictates that coming off of a home loss as a favorite and playing again at home this week, a team will be especially motivated to redeem themselves in front of the home fans. I think they do so tonight and pick up the win by four or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Good Luck!

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sometimes, it’s fun to have a newsletter that you get to send out every week to a bunch of people on a sport you think you know a little something about.

Other times, like the last few weeks, you wish you lived in some Amish Village in the middle of nowhere and had never heard of the internet.

As I watched late pick-6s and onside kicks go against me left and right last weekend, I was reminded that so much of this just comes down to the bounces. For that reason, I really shouldn’t let it frustrate me so much… but I still do. Losing sucks, and losing ALOT sucks worse.

Then again, I’ve never guaranteed any winners. Can’t. Unfortunately, I can’t actually go out there and strap on the pads and make any difference whatsoever.

All I can guarantee is that I’ll keep giving it a shot (and making a damn fool of myself) every week. That is, of course, until I find an Amish Village that is willing to accept me as one of their own.

Will I have to grow a beard?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 3 – 10 – 0 (.231)
Without the spread: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)

Season
With the spread: 66 – 62 – 1 (.516)
Without the spread: 85 – 44 – 0 (.659)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

(From here on, just going with the good and the bad. Wins are good, losses are bad. Makes sense.)

THE GOOD

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)

THE BAD

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

THURSDAY

Chicago (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco (WIN)

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+7.0) @ Pittsburgh (-7.0)
Cincinnati has a very good team this year, making all of these points tempting; but while these two teams match up pretty well on offense, Pittsburgh has the advantage in defense. They also have home field advantage and they let the last one against Cinci get away. When Pittsburgh wins, it always seems to be by double digits; even against strong teams like the Bengals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Atlanta (-1.5) @ Carolina (+1.5)
Carolina started the season off slowly, but they’ve picked up their play of late. They have the rushing attack to keep Matt Ryan off the field, and the passing defense to slow him down when he is out there. These two teams always play eachother tough, and I think it’s the Panthers’ turn to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Carolina

Tampa Bay (+10.0) @ Miami (-10.0)
Congrats, Tampa Bay, you will not go winless this year. The effort to beat Green Bay was great, but it doesn’t change the fact that they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Miami, a quietly solid team with arguably the most underrated offense in the league, should take care of business easily this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis (+13.5)
Okay, so New Orleans falls behind big early, and then storms back late. I get it. It’s starting to annoy me, too, since it keeps allowing the opponent to cover. But does it annoy me enough to take the lowly Rams? Not a chance. Can we play all four quarters this week, guys?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Jacksonville (+6.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-6.5)
This one has the look and feel of an ugly game. It is hard to ignore the Jags’ last few road games; 30-13 loss @Tennessee, 41-0 loss @Seattle. They haven’t exactly traveled well of late, and going up against a tough Jets defense, I don’t like their chances of bucking the trend.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Buffalo (+8.5) @ Tennessee (-8.5)
Eventually I’ll have to come around and accept that Tennessee is “back”, but I’m still not ready to. As bad as Buffalo is, their defense has been pretty strong. And Tennessee’s defense still leaves a bit to be desired. The Titans pick up the win, but I’m not expecting it to be by double digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington (+3.5)
Everybody (83% spread, 85% moneyline) loves the Broncos to bounce back with a win against lowly Washington, and yet the spread moved from 4.5 to 3.5. Verrrry interesting. As if fading the public and the reverse line movement wasn’t enough, my model happens to be on the Redskins as well, predicting a score of 21-17. That certainly doesn’t hurt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Washington

Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota (-16.5)
Detroit is really awful, and Minnesota is really good, but am I really ready to give up 16.5 points? Actually, yes, I believe that I am. Fresh off of a bye against a weak opponent, I have to take the Vikings here to tee off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Kansas City (+2.0) @ Oakland (-2.0)
I can almost guarantee I’m going to regret this pick, and my model certainly thinks so (predicting a 28-14 KC victory), but the Raiders get back two huge offensive weapons in Darren McFadden and Chaz Shilens this week. Add that to the fact that they’ve already beaten the Chiefs this season and have shown some life on defense at home sporadically… and I have to take my pathetic Raiders.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Dallas (-3.0) @ Green Bay (+3.0)
This game should be a lot of fun to watch. Dallas has surprised me this season with their strong play, and I think they match up very well here; Green Bay’s defense has been beatable, and the Cowboys should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers as the Packers’ o-line has also been a problem for them. Should be a good game, but I like the Cowboys to come out on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Philadelphia @ San Diego (Pick’em)
I like San Diego quite a bit in this spot. They are starting to pick up momentum (as they often do late in the season), and Philadelphia is coming off of three straight division rivalry games AND is traveling across the country. This looks like a very good spot for the San Diego Chargers at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Seattle (+9.0) @ Arizona (-9.0)
I can never quite wrap my head around Seattle, as they always find a way to make me wrong whether I pick for or against them. In this division rivalry, I’m once again tempted into take the points on the Seahawks, and can only hope their offense shows up this time against Arizona.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
What an excellent game for Sunday Night Football. Should be a lot of fun to kick back and watch. As for who is going to win? My model likes New England, but I like the Colts at home; this game will be a big test for both of these teams and could obviously be a preview of a playoff game down the road. Home field + Peyton Manning in a night game at less then a FG, I have to take my chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

Baltimore (-10.5) @ Cleveland (+10.5)
Cleveland tends to show up for games like this when you least expect them to, but they match up terribly against the Ravens, and Baltimore needs some wins badly and should be completely focused this Monday night. As such, I’ll have to assume they give their best effort, which should be enough to cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 33 – 28 – 5 (.541)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 11 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fedtZ6QZsM4

UAB -1.5 (WIN)
Idaho +31.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State -13.0 (WIN)
South Carolina +17.5 (WIN)
Utah +20.0 (LOSS)
Arizona +3.0 (LOSS)Good Luck This Week!

———————
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By Dave Consolazio, November 6, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, you knew it was bound to happen.

I had to have an awful week sooner or later… you weren’t expecting me to pick 60% winners picking every game ATS, were you?

Alas, losing sucks, but it’s all part of the game. Hopefully the bounces treat me a lot better this time around.

(Sorry, keeping the intro short and sweet today… I’m too tired to be creative. Sorry these are so late again as well!)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 4 – 9 – 0 (.308)
Without the spread: 9 – 4 – 0 (.692)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 63 – 52 – 1 (.548)
Without the spread: 77 – 39 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 8 – 5 – 0 (.615)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Houston (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Miami (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5)
N.Y. Giants (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Carolina (+10.0) @ Arizona (-10.0)

THE BAD

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
Cleveland (+13.0) @ Chicago (-13.0)
St. Louis (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
San Francisco (+13.0) @ Indianapolis (-13.0)
Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas (-9.5)
Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego (-16.5)

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
Atlanta (+10.5) @ New Orleans (-10.5)

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay (+9.5)
Green Bay has had no issues beating lousy teams by double digits recently (doing so against both Cleveland and Detroit), and I expect Tampa Bay to suffer a similar fate.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Arizona (+3.0) @ Chicago (-3.0)
I believe that Arizona is the better football team in this one, and I don’t think that being on the wrong side of a revenge game last Sunday changes that. I’ll gladly take the points, even if it is on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
Honestly, I really don’t think the Jaguars have any business being a near-touchdown favorite to anyone after their performance last week. But losing in embarassing fashion to a winless team seems like pretty good motivation to bounce back strong at home the following week, which I expect them to do.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Miami (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
For whatever reason, people seem to keep ignoring the fact that this Dolphins offense is very strong. New England should get the win (no repeat of last year’s trip to New England), but I expect Miami to put up a fight.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Washington (+9.0) @ Atlanta (-9.0)
Washington has a very bad football team, but it is mainly due to their offense. I think their defense makes it hard to give up so many points; and coming off of a bye week they should be fresh. I like them to keep it within a touchdown this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

Baltimore (-3.0) @ Cincinnati (+3.0)
My head tells me it’s hard to turn down points on a home dog that is not only evenly matched but coming off of a bye and beat this team on the road a few weeks back. My gut tells me Baltimore is the play though, perhaps to get revenge for that very loss at home. I tend to go with my gut in these situations.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Houston (+8.5) @ Indianapolis (-8.5)
Spread tells the story here. Houston has won three straight, Indy coming off of a close win over San Francisco. Books are begging you to take the Texans at this number; but I’ll stick with the Colts.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Carolina (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
Carolina got their revenge out of the way this week, but this is still a football team with a lot of problems. Expect those problems on both sides of the ball to be exploited by this powerhouse Saints team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Detroit (+10.0) @ Seattle (-10.0)
Yes, the loss to St. Louis at home was extremely embarassing. That said, what has Seattle done this year? Other than the one huge game against Jacksonville, they’ve been pushed around pretty much all season too; I can’t lay 10 points with this team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

San Diego (+4.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-4.5)
San Diego doesn’t tend to travel to the East Coast well, and this week they get a very angry Giants team in the midst of a losing streak. I don’t like their chances.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Tennessee (+4.0) @ San Francisco (-4.0)
Great to see the Titans get back in the win column last week, but I don’t think one great game solves all of your problems. San Francisco should take care of business at home.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Dallas (+3.0) @ Philadelphia (-3.0)
This should be a great game. Both teams look very evenly matched this season, but I have to take the Eagles at home, and I like their defense slightly better as well.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
Maybe Pittsburgh is a trap, but in this case, I need to spring it. I’m not even on the “Denver isn’t for real” wagon, I just don’t see Big Ben and the Steelers dropping this game on a Monday Night.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 30 – 25 – 5 (.545)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 10 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A58mnWQqcXg

Kansas -2.5 (LOSS)
Oregon State +7.0 (WIN)
Oregon -7.0 (LOSS)
UL Monroe -1.0 (WIN)
Houston -1.0 (TIE)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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By Dave Consolazio, October 30, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Man I love night games this year! 12-3 against the spread on Sunday and Monday night games; 11-1 since week 2.

Might as well just start calling me “Prime Time”

(Actually, scratch that. I’d probably get sued by Deion Sanders, and I’m not exactly in the best financial state right now. Better hold off on the nickname.)

Everything went my way last week with my 10-2-1… all the bounces and everything. Vegas lost a lot of money last week as favorites were 9-2-1; tread lightly this week, I’m guessing the lines are going to kill a lot of us this week!

Side note: Last week, sticking with my “9-5″ theme, I said my college record added up to 9-5-2. 4-2, 2-1-1, 3-1-1.

What is 2+1+1?

That’s right, 4, not 5. Meaning I am stupid, but I’ll give myself a pass since I wrote the damn thing at like 5 in the morning and haven’t been sleeping well (like that’s an excuse for not knowing how to add, stupid bastard Dave).

NOT A SINGLE ONE OF YOU CALLED ME ON IT! Meaning; A) None of you are reading the Dime (or you are skipping over the intros), B) None of you can add properly, C) You DID read and DID notice, but since I’ve been picking winners and am under a lot of stress, you decided to give me a pass because you are such great pals.

Hmm. I’m going with Option C. Option A is too depressing, and Option B is too insulting.

Moving on! Happy Halloween!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 2 – 1 (.833)
Without the spread: 10 – 3 – 0 (.769)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

Season
With the spread: 59 – 43 – 1 (.578)
Without the spread: 68 – 35 – 0 (.660)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 7 – 5 – 0 (.583)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

New England (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay (+14.5) W
Minnesota (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0) W
Green Bay (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0) W
N.Y. Jets (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0) W
Buffalo (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0) W
Chicago @ Cincinnati (Pick’em) W
New Orleans (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0) W
Atlanta (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5) W
Arizona (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0) W
Philadelphia (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0) W

THE BAD

Indianapolis (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0) L
San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5) L
THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:
San Francisco (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0) T

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore (-3.5)
Still no respect for Denver, huh? Can’t say that I’m surprised. If it’s the same Denver team that went into the bye,
all signs point to this one being a very close game. I actually do see Baltimore squeaking out the victory at home, but expect it to be a close one to the end.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Houston (-3.0) @ Buffalo (+3.0)
Buffalo’s defense has quietly been putting together a nice little run, making them a tempting home dog here. Despite
the two straight wins though, I’m still not sold, and have to take this solid Texans team giving up only a field goal.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Cleveland (+13.0) @ Chicago (-13.0)
Chicago’s offense had that huge game against Detroit, but otherwise it’s been pretty quiet. Cleveland is not a good
football team by any stretch, but I think they can put together a decent enough defensive effort to keep from losing this one by two touchdowns.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

St. Louis (+4.0) @ Detroit (-4.0)
Shocking to see Detroit as a favorite, isn’t it? Not when you look at the numbers. St. Louis is hopelessly bad, and my model actually projects a score of St. Louis 14 – Detroit 35. Wow. This is Detroit, isn’t it? St. Louis’s defense is so bad it will make even Detroit’s offense shine, and while I’m not sure they’ll win by three TDs, I do think they win by one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Detroit

Miami (+3.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-3.5)
The Jets may very well win this game, but these two teams are very evenly matched (as they showed last time around),
and I wouldn’t feel comfortable giving up more than a field goal in this spot. With the Jets coming off of the blowout win and Miami coming off of the heartbreaking loss, this feels like a good spot for an upset pick, too.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

San Francisco (+13.0) @ Indianapolis (-13.0)
Indianapolis just keeps rolling, dominating on both sides of the ball. Until they stop, I can’t keep talking myself out of picking them; they’ve been one of the easiest plays on the board just about every week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas (-9.5)
Dallas had an excellent game against the Falcons last week, but I’m still not really sold on this team, especially on offense. I’m sure they’ll get the win at home, but Seattle is one of those teams that can throw together a really good game out of nowhere; and I get the feeling they’ll do just that this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0)
Very tough game, as it always is when these two collide. Neither has looked extremely sharp of late, either. Philadelphia’s defense has been more consistant, and they’ve got home field here; can’t pass up on them in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia*

Jacksonville (+3.0) @ Tennessee (-3.0)
At first, I was thinking TRAP!, but again, Tennessee isn’t your typical winless team. People refuse to accept how bad they are, and they are getting plenty of action as the favorite this week. All eyes will be on Vince Young, but the real story is, this defense is terrible. Look for Jacksonville to put up 30+, and I’m not counting on Vince Young to do the same.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Jacksonville

Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego (-16.5)
San Diego shouldn’t really be this big of a favorite against anybody; and yet, they are the pick here. Not only is Oakland’s offense hopeless, but the fact that Jamarcus Russell continue to take no responsibility at all is what is killing this team; you can’t have a player like that at a position like quarterback. I gave him as much patience as I could, but I’m off the wagon as well; and as long as this team keeps losing by 20-30, there’s no reason to pick them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Minnesota (+3.0) @ Green Bay (-3.0)
I don’t need to repeat all of the amazing drama surrounding Brett Favre returning to Green Bay….. oops, I just did. Oh well. Last time, Green Bay kept it close despite some of the worst line-play I’ve seen in the NFL this season. With the home crowd behind them, I think this evenly-matched game tilts in Green Bay’s favor this time; no “revenge” for Favre.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Carolina (+10.0) @ Arizona (-10.0)
Speaking of revenge, I know we’ve all forgotten, but Arizona beat Carolina at home as a huge underdog in the playoffs last year. Guess what; Carolina hasn’t forgotten. They’ve had this game circled all season I’m sure, and I wouldn’t be surprised if looking ahead to this one contributed to last week’s terrible game against Buffalo. Arizona may hold on to win, but I’m expecting an inspired effort from the Panthers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

MONDAY

Atlanta (+10.5) @ New Orleans (-10.5)
Well, last week pretty much summed up why you shouldn’t be picking against New Orleans; even when they SHOULD lose, they don’t. This team is playing at another level right now, and even if this is an insane amount of points to give up to a good Atlanta team, sign me up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 19 – 4 (.568)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 9 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_xm3_48P6Y

New Mexico State +44.0
Oregon State -9.5
New Mexico +16.5
Notre Dame -27.5
SMU/Tulsa Over 52.5
ASU/Cal Under 51.5
UNLV/TCU Under 57.0

Good Luck This Week!

———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
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By Dave Consolazio, October 23, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

At first, I was pretty damn excited about my little hot streak.

Over the last two weeks, after going .500 for the first month of the season, I’ve managed to go a combined 18-10. Pretty awesome if I do say so myself.

Week 5: 9 – 5

Week 6: 9 – 5

I’ve also had three straight winning weeks in college football, with a 4-2 record two weeks ago, a 2-1-1 record last week, and a 3-1-1 record yesterday.

Three week total: 9-5-2

Normally, I’m thrilled to pick 64% winners. But I can’t help but wonder; is this repeating NINE TO FIVE thing the Gambling Gods’ way of mocking me for being unemployed?!? Trust me, I already think of 9 to 5 jobs all day and how badly I need one, I don’t need reminders!

On the bright side, if this is the Gambling Gods’ way of having a laugh at my expense, I can live with it. Glad they didn’t give me the early evening shift (4 – 10). Then again, I probably shouldn’t give them any ideas.

I wouldn’t mind working, say, one hour a day… maybe 12-1?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 11 – 3 – 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 49 – 41 – 0 (.544)
Without the spread: 58 – 32 – 0 (.644)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 5 – 4 – 0 (.556)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0) W
Houston (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5) W
Kansas City (+6.0) @ Washington (-6.0) W
N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0) W
Philadelphia (-14.0) @ Oakland (+14.0) W
Arizona (+3.0) @ Seattle (-3.0) W
Tennessee (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0) W
Chicago (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0) W
Denver (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5) W

THE BAD

Detroit (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0) L
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Jacksonville (-9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0) L
Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Buffalo (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)
FIVE picks? Yikes.

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Indianapolis (-14.0) @ St. Louis (+14.0)
Undefeated versus winless. The ultimate David VS. Goliath. 90% of the betting public on Indy -14, 92% on them money line. St. Louis has already burned me numerous times this year, but I just don’t know that they get much more philosophical than this (I said that last time they blew it against Minnesota, too). My model spits out a final score of Indianapolis 45 – St. Louis 7. That looks about right to me; but sticking to my philosophy guns, I must take the worst team in football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New England (-14.5) @ Tampa Bay (+14.5)
And the two touchdown spreads just keep on coming. And unlike years’ past where I feel obligated to take the points, I just don’t this year (obviously the game above is an exception). Putting the amazing effort by Brady last week aside, even if the ‘07 Patriots aren’t back, they are still more than capable of stomping Tampa Bay by three touchdowns or more. What makes this different from the game above? The Pats aren’t quite as good as the Colts, and the Bucs aren’t quite as bad as the Rams… which makes the fact that the spread is a brutal half point higher even more interesting. (I know, I don’t always make perfect sense… just smile and nod.)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

San Francisco (+3.0) @ Houston (-3.0)
Okay, so San Francisco got killed by Atlanta before their bye. What does it tell you that they are only +3, on the road, against a team coming off of a big win against Cincinnati? It should remind you that the 49ers are a tough football team, and I have them as the only upset pick I could find on the card today.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Francisco

Minnesota (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)
Doesn’t this spread just look way off? You have an undefeated Minnesota team coming off of a huge win against Baltimore against a Pittsburgh team that just won a lackluster game against Cleveland. The game actually opened at +4, and despite 65% betting on Minnesota, it moved all the way to +6. Very strange. Could be the difference Polamalu makes, could be Favre maybe looking ahead to what will be an extremely emotional game next week @Green Bay. Either way, +6 looks like a complete gift; and you know how much I hate gift spreads in football.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

San Diego (-5.5) @ Kansas City (+5.5)
Something tells me this is the game that San Diego breaks out, but Kansas City has been playing pretty strong competitive football against good teams for pretty much the entire year with only one really ugly loss (against Philadelphia). San Diego’s defense has been dreadful, and the Chiefs have proven to be a thorn in San Diego’s side in the past. I’m seeing a close one here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Green Bay (-9.0) @ Cleveland (+9.0)
Last week I picked a terrible team against Green Bay, and I was rewarded with a shutout loss. This time, I think I’ll just take the better football team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

N.Y. Jets (-6.0) @ Oakland (+6.0)
In case you didn’t notice, the Raiders still haven’t shown any sign of an offense in over a month, with the exception of that one big play. Jets coming off of a crushing defeat to an awful team, Raiders coming off of an incredible upset win; seems like a perfect time to play the Jets to me. As a Raiders fan, I obviously hope I’m wrong here; but the Jets -6 has way too much value to pass up on, and Sanchez will have to be as bad as he was last Sunday for the Raiders to have a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Buffalo (+7.0) @ Carolina (-7.0)
It pains me to pick Buffalo, as this truly is one of the absolute worst teams in football. But how much better is Carolina? Good enough to win this game I’m sure, but I’m not ready to give them 7 points against anyone.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Chicago @ Cincinnati (Pick’em)
Love the Bengals in this spot. Coming off of a loss at home as a favorite, playing another home game the following week. If they were a dog, that’d make them a philosophy pick; but they barely missed it with the PK. No matter, I still love the situation and I love the matchup anyway; I still don’t trust Cutler on the road.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Miami has a damn good football team, but New Orleans continues to give us no reason to pick against them with their outstanding play on both sides of the ball. As such, I will continue to do so.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Atlanta (+4.5) @ Dallas (-4.5)
Much like the Pittsburgh game, the spread just looks way off in this one, too. Dallas has been very underwhelming this season, while Atlanta as been strong. 75% of the betting action came in on Atlanta +3, yet they moved the spread in Dallas’s favor, enticing even more betting on the Falcons. Like the Steelers game, I’ll take the home favorite since the road dog looks way too obvious in this spot.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Arizona (+7.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-7.0)
Funny to see Arizona continue to get no respect. I ask again; who have the Giants beaten this year? They are obviously a top-level team, but I don’t know what they’ve done so far this season to deserve being a touchdown favorite in this spot against a solid Cardinals team. I expect the Giants to find a way to win, but to do so in a good game that comes down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

MONDAY

Philadelphia (-7.0) @ Washington (+7.0)
Last week’s loss to Oakland showed us a very serious weakness on the Eagles; the offensive line. Washington has the defensive line to exploit that (though Haynesworth is questionable), as well as a great defense in general. That said, the Eagles have a great defense as well; and Washington is in complete shambles right now. “Smart” money is probably on the Redskins, getting seven points at home against a division rival. But I really can’t see them scoring, and after getting embarassed by the Raiders last week, I expect Philadelphia to respond in a big way this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 25 – 19 – 4 (.568)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 8 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdzu5YH2qqc

Georgia Tech -5.5 (WIN)
Duke -4 (TIE)
Oregon -10.0 (WIN)
Arizona -7.5 (WIN)
Michigan State -1.5 (LOSS)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 16, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Sorry this is so late! Some personal stuff came up tonight that needed attending to. Maybe NEXT week will be the week I get back on a somewhat normal schedule?!?

Last week was a nice success, going 9-5… disappointed that St. Louis decided to suck so bad, especially in the red zone, when I highlighted them so strongly; but that’s what happens when you pick bad teams. Sometimes, they just do what they do; suck.

I’m feeling pretty good about this week’s picks, but I must admit, I’m still a bit taken aback by what I saw Friday morning (here comes a random story).

I went to check on my african dwarf frogs (the cool little fully-aquatic frogs); Sidney Frogsby, Dion Frogeuf, and Nikolai Frogibulin (named after hockey players for those of you that didn’t pick up on that). Anyway, they were fine… but Dion Frogeuf and Nikolai Frogibulin were, well… you know… making froggy love.

A few hours and about 100 eggs later, it was pretty clear that Nikolai Frogibulin was NOT a man. Thinking of renaming her Elisha Frogbert; after all, the real Dion Phaneuf actually hooked up with Elisha Cuthbert. I’m just feeling bad for Sidney, poor little third wheel that he is.

(If you were wondering just how bored/insane I am since being fired… now you know.)

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)

Season
With the spread: 40 – 36 – 0 (.526)
Without the spread: 47 – 29 – 0 (.618)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 – 4 – 0 (.500)
QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0) W
Washington (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0) W
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit (+10.5) W
Oakland (+15.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-15.0) W
Tampa Bay (+15.0) @ Philadelphia (-15.0) W
New England (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0) W
Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Seattle (-1.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5) W
N.Y. Jets (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5) W

THE BAD

Cleveland (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0) L
Minnesota (-10.0) @ St. Louis (+10.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Dallas (-7.5) @ Kansas City (+7.5) L
Houston (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

Atlanta (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5) L
I’m fine with Atlanta winning, but absolutely destroying the 49ers was unexpected.
THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Carolina (-3.0) @ Tampa Bay (+3.0)
Two very, very bad teams. As tempting as it is to take the home team and the points in the battle of the bad, I think Carolina is the better team, and at least they showed us they can win last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

Detroit (+14.0) @ Green Bay (-14.0)
Alright Vegas, you win. I’ll bite. Green Bay is obviously the better team here and coming fresh off of the bye, but Detroit showed a lot of fight last week against Pittsburgh; and the Packers defense has been a bit off this season. Two TDs is a lot of points, and this one seems worth a chance.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

St. Louis (+9.5) @ Jacksonville (-9.5)
When you are a near-double digit underdog to a team that just lost 41-0, you know things are going wrong. Sadly for the St. Louis, I can’t find any good reason why Jacksonville doesn’t bounce back at home here and take out their aggression from being embarassed last week on the lowly Rams.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Baltimore (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
So much purple, so much great football. Minnesota is doing everything right on both sides of the ball, and they’ve got home field advantage. Baltimore is an outstanding team, but they haven’t quite put it all together defensively this season. They might bounce back from a tough loss this week, but I can’t pick against the Vikes again until they give me a reason to.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Houston (+5.5) @ Cincinnati (-5.5)
Philosophy picks are a modest 4-4 this season, but I’ve got to stick by them. Not only has Cincinnati played in three straight division rivalry games and are favored this week which would make them an auto-philosophy pick; but all three games were very close and taxing games. Doesn’t get a whole lot more clear cut of a potential let down situation than this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Houston

Kansas City (+6.0) @ Washington (-6.0)
Washington gets the slight edge here with the better defense; but that edge is very slight. I’m not sure it’s enough to give up six points. KC has played some tough teams, and the Redskins have played plenty of easy ones (and struggled along the way), so I’ll take the points here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
I’m surprised that I’m taking the Saints here, but the Giants just haven’t been tested in weeks. TB, KC, Oak? Even Dallas and Washington victories are not that impressive considering what we’ve seen from those two. Make no mistake about it, I think the Giants are the real deal; but the Saints have beaten some strong competition this year, and at home fresh off the bye, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cleveland (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Pittsburgh has had it’s share of problems this year, especially on defense. Getting Polamalu back should help, but what should help even more is going against this Brown’s offense… or lack there of. Hate giving up this many points, but I’d hate being on Cleveland here even more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia (-14.0) @ Oakland (+14.0)
Wow, I can’t believe I’m taking Oakland. I really can’t. They are totally dreadful, and will likely lose by five touchdowns. That said, it’s one thing to give 14 points at home; but on the road? This will be Philadelphia’s first road game in over a month. And as bad as the Raiders have been, their last three opponents (NYG, Hou, Den) are all pretty legit, including two undefeated teams. An ugly cover seems possible to me; but yuck.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Arizona (+3.0) @ Seattle (-3.0)
Very interesting game here; The Cardinals haven’t impressed all that much this season, and the Seahawks appear to be a completely different team when Hasselbeck is in. I’m still not sold though; I get the feeling the Cardinals show up in a big way today. Should be a good one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Arizona

Tennessee (+9.0) @ New England (-9.0)
Am I really going to give the Tennessee Titans nine points? Sadly, I don’t see any way around it. The Titans have been hopeless on both sides of the ball; Kerry Collins’ success last year is looking more and more like a fluke, and while much is being made of Haynesworth’s absence, what happened to the secondary? After a tough loss last week, New England should be able to right the ship this week against a surprisingly bad Titans team.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Buffalo (+9.5) @ N.Y. Jets (-9.5)
Buffalo has just looked hopeless this season. Getting destroyed by the Dolphins two weeks ago, and then following that act up with a home loss to Cleveland? The team is playing terrible, uninspired football. The Jets meanwhile have lost two straight but are far from hopeless. This is a great football team due for a big win, and it comes this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets

Chicago (+3.0) @ Atlanta (-3.0)
Last week’s huge win over San Francisco kind of felt like a statement – Atlanta is back. Still don’t trust Jay Cutler on the road and still don’t know what to make of Chicago in general. I’ll just play it safe and go with the home team that appears to be picking up some momentum.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

MONDAY

Denver (+3.5) @ San Diego (-3.5)
This is getting silly. I know, I find it shocking that Kyle Orton is apparently a good football player too. I think it’s crazy that the Broncos have an amazing shutdown defense as well! But it’s all true. While everyone else continues to doubt them, I’ll just ride the Bronco train until it derails; and getting 3.5 points with a defense like this is a great proposition.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 22 – 18 – 3 (.550)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 7 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElNz__ix7wA
Oklahoma +3.0 (TIE)
USC -10.0 (LOSS)
Cal -3.5 (WIN)
ASU/Wash Under 47.5 (WIN)

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 9, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

First thing is first; thank you guys so much for all of the support!

These aren’t easy times, and having so many of you guys take a few minutes out of your day to email and wish me well really means a lot to me. When Sunday rolls around and I find myself cursing at the TV when all my games are going wrong and wondering why the hell I do the Dime in the first place, you guys always find ways of reminding me. So thank you.

As we enter week five, we now have a whole month of football under our belts, so now we actually somewhat know what to expect from these teams. The problem is, so do the linesmakers, who are always one step ahead.

That said, I’m more than happy to escape the murky waters that are the first four weeks with a .500 record. For the first week all season I feel like I have a pretty good grasp on things, so let’s get started!

(Of course, feeling confident can also lead to a nice 2-12 punch in the face; but hopefully the Gambling Gods will be nice. I’ve been screwed over enough!)

THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 6 – 8 – 0 (.429)
Without the spread: 9 – 5 – 0 (.643)

^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 31 – 31 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 38 – 24 – 0 (.613)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 3 – 3 – 0 (.500)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

Pretty remarkable… home teams went 12-2 against the spread last week.

THE GOOD

Detroit (+10.0) @ Chicago (-10.0) W
Cincinnati (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0) W
N.Y. Giants (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0) W
Seattle (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0) W
Buffalo @ Miami (Pick’em) W
San Diego (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0) W

THE BAD

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0) L
Oakland (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0) L
Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5) L
St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:
Baltimore (+2.0) @ New England (-2.0) L
N.Y. Jets (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0) L
Dallas (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0) L
Green Bay (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Baltimore (-9.0)
This is a bit ridiculous, isn’t it? If not for an absurd fluke play against Denver, Cincinnati would be undefeated. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Cincinnati has shown that they can compete this year; and as much as I love the new-look offense in Baltimore, the defense has not been it’s usual shutdown self. Baltimore could win this one by double digits, but I have far too much respect for the Bengals to pass up on 9 points in a division rivalry.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Cleveland (+6.0) @ Buffalo (-6.0)
When two teams that seem to go out of their way to lose games meet up, it’s hard to even imagine either of them coming out on top. Conventional wisdom would say to take the points in a game like this; but I actually see Buffalo covering in this one. On top of the homefield advantage and coming off of an embarassing loss, Cleveland also trades away one of it’s best offensive weapons. Buffalo is bad, but not THIS bad. At least I don’t think so… we’ll find out Sunday.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo

Washington (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
As Washington struggles through three of the absolute worst teams in the league, everyone has written them off; and the offense is downright dreadful, don’t get me wrong. But what has Carolina done any better? Their offense has been pretty useless too, and unlike the Redskins who have at least been getting good defense, Carolina’s defense hasn’t slowed down anyone this year. This one looks like a pretty even matchup to me, so I’ve gotta take the points. I’ll take the straight up upset too, while I’m at it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Washington

Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Detroit (+10.5)
Terrible Detroit gets blown out by Chicago, defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh dominates the Chargers at home… Stafford injured… doesn’t this one seem a little too easy? 80% of bettors seem to think so, yet the line mysteriously moves from 11.5 to 10.5. Hmmm… don’t really quite see how Detroit’s defense stops the Steelers, but that’s the fun of philosophy picks sometimes; watching the madness unfold.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Dallas (-7.5) @ Kansas City (+7.5)
A lot of people love Kansas City and the points here, but what if you entertain the notion that the Broncos defense really is that good? At this point, I’m certainly willing to. And while the Cowboys may not be an NFC powerhouse any more, they are still perfectly capible of dismantling the bottom-feeder types; and I expect them to do just that this week, even on the road.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

Oakland (+15.0) @ N.Y. Giants (-15.0)
As a general rule, I will not lay more than two touchdowns in the NFL. This isn’t college football; it’s the pros. But in breaking down this game, this is such a disasterous matchup for the Raiders that I can’t find any reason to believe they will cover. The Raiders are decimated by injuries on offense, Jamarcus Russell is getting no guidance whatsoever from the coaching staff, and with McFadden, Miller, and Schilens all out, the Raiders are hurting bad for playmakers. Meanwhile, on defense, the Raiders refuse to break from the man-to-man despite it being terribly outdated in today’s NFL; and with the way Eli Manning and his wide receivers are playing, whoever isn’t being covered by Asomugha should have a field day. You could take the Raiders and pray for some special teams or defensive touchdowns, but this one looks about as hopeless as it gets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Tampa Bay (+15.0) @ Philadelphia (-15.0)
Again, I really really hate laying this kind of chalk in the NFL, and I know I’m going to pay for it. But my formula churns out about a 4-TD victory for the Eagles here, and Andy Reid is notoriously great off of bye weeks, too. Figuring out this Tampa Bay offense should be a lot more like a jumbo 100-piece puzzle than a rubik’s cube. Again, maybe the “smart” thing to do is take the points, but I just can’t in this one either.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Minnesota (-10.0) @ St. Louis (+10.0)
This game is pretty much as philosophical as they come.

One team that is nationally adored by the media and bettors, undefeated, unstoppable. The other team that hasn’t won a game that people are picking to possibly go winless this season that is considered absolute bottom of the barrel.

Even better, Minnesota is coming off of a highly-emotional Monday Night Football game against a division rival; a prime letdown situation. Especially considering HOW emotional and huge that game was, the letdown crash should be even bigger. St. Louis is coming off of a humiliating 35-0 loss. Aaand Minnesota has a huge game to look forward to next week against Baltimore.

All of that doesn’t spell out how perfect of a philosophical pick this is? How about NINETY percent of the public on Minnesota?

This one is so textbook I even have to take the Rams to win it outright. Don’t get me wrong, Minnesota is the MUCH better team. But the NFL is all about the unexpected, and just about every emotional factor points in St. Louis’s favor Sunday.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis

Atlanta (+2.5) @ San Francisco (-2.5)
They aren’t flashy and they don’t pretend to be, but the San Francisco 49ers are a smash mouth football team that goes out and wins football games. I like Atlanta quite a bit, but they are still running off of last year’s reputation; this year San Francisco has been the better team, and at home, I’m going to take them until they give me a good reason not to.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

New England (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
As a die-hard Raider fan, it brings me no joy to say this; but I’m sold on this Denver defense. For four games this team has shut down any and all comers. New England might be the team to buck that trend; but the numbers point to Denver here. Only reason the spread is where it is right now is because of the logos on the helmets. As a Bronco-hater I’d be happy to be wrong, but they are the pick this week; especially getting points at home.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Denver

Jacksonville (+1.0) @ Seattle (-1.0)
Total toss-up; even with Hasselbeck starting, can Seattle slow down a Jacksonville offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders? I think that they can; I feel like part of the reason the Seahawks defense has struggled is because the offense has put them in tough spots. I also think the Jags are due for an off-week offensively. That said, I never seem to get these two teams right; so who knows?

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Houston (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
Alright, I agree; a dominating effort against the Raiders doesn’t mean that your weaknesses are magically fixed. That said, Arizona has only lit up the scoreboard once in their three games this season; twice the offense has looked very pedestrian. Against a weak Houston defense they’ll probably get their share of points; but I don’t think they’ll do much to stop Houston from doing the same. 6 points is a lot in what looks like a close game to me.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Tennessee (+3.5)
An undefeated Colts team VS. a winless Titans team; the Titans being a division rival and a home dog here. As enticing as it may be, this isn’t your every day 0-4 home dog; for the last two weeks, Tennessee has been getting far too few points because they are “due to win”. Pretty clear that Albert Haynesworth’s presence is missed, because the defense has been awful. This may very well be the week, but there is nothing in the numbers that leads me to believe that 3.5 points is enough to take the Titans. Oh, and it’s Peyton Manning in a night game. I’ll take my chances.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

MONDAY

N.Y. Jets (-1.5) @ Miami (+1.5)
Tons of money is coming in on the Jets side, and while I was originally thinking this spread felt kind of trap-like, I needed to remind myself that the Jets are coming off of a 14 point loss and the Dolphins are coming off of a 28 point win. So the spread is what it is. To me, it looks like two strong defenses VS. two quiet offenses with rookie QBs at the helm. Without a strong opinion, I’m left going with my gut feeling of fading the public and counting on the home-field advantage Monday Night.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami
THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 16 – 15 – 2 (.516)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.
Week 6 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlvkXXIYxoE

Rice +11.0
Arizona State -20.5
Colorado +32.5
Memphis +2.0
Florida -7.5
Arizona/Washington Over 52.5

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

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By Dave Consolazio, October 2, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

Well, it’s finally official, and I can share why I’ve been so out-of-it lately… a couple of weeks ago I was fired from my job at SBR.

Unceremoniously, no warning, no apology. Just a “Hey, thanks for moving 1500 miles to take this job! 7 months later, we just decide we don’t want you anymore, bye!”

Well, it wasn’t said EXACTLY like that. But you get the idea.

So, yeah. Sorry I haven’t been my normal cheery and productive self… trying to figure out what the hell I’m going to do with my life moving forward.

But enough depressing, Dave is screwed mumbo-jumbo; lets get to the football!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 7 – 9 – 0 (.688)
Without the spread: 9 – 7 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 0 – 2 – 0 (.000)

Season
With the spread: 25 – 23 – 0 (.521)
Without the spread: 29 – 19 – 0 (.604)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 3 – 0 (.400)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis (+6.5) W
Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5) W
San Francisco (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0) W
Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5) W
New Orleans (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0) W
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati (+3.5) W
Carolina (+9.0) @ Dallas (-9.0) W

THE BAD

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5) L
Atlanta (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5) L
N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay (+6.5) L
Kansas City (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0) L
Denver (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0) L
Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0) L

THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Tennessee (+2.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-2.0) L
Chicago (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5) L
Miami (+5.5) @ San Diego (-5.5) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Detroit (+10.0) @ Chicago (-10.0)
Hooray, Detroit got their first win in forever! I’m very happy for you guys! Now, back to reality; Chicago’s offense isn’t going to struggle like Washington’s did, and it’s a lot harder to play on the road. Bears win and cover.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Cincinnati (-6.0) @ Cleveland (+6.0)
The only philosophy pick of the week, you’ve got two division rivals on opposite sides of the spectrum; one is flying high with wins over tough opponents in Green Bay and Pittsburgh; the other is arguably the worst team in the league and has lost every game they’ve played by double digits. This spread seems way too low considering the circumstances, and this has all the makings of “one of those games”.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Cleveland

Tennessee (-3.0) @ Jacksonville (+3.0)
Tennessee is just too good to be winless. Jacksonville remains impossible to figure out, so I won’t bother to try; instead I’ll just assume that this is the week that the football world corrects itself a bit and the Titans come out on top.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

N.Y. Giants (-9.0) @ Kansas City (+9.0)
Well, what happened last week when the Giants visited an awful team in Tampa Bay? They destroyed them handily. The Chiefs aren’t as bad as the Buccaneers, but they are definitely bad enough to lose this game by double digits, and they likely will.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Baltimore (+2.0) @ New England (-2.0)
Impressive win by New England last week over a good Atlanta Falcons team; another win this week would convince me that mabe we should start looking out for this team again. That said, Baltimore seems to have an offense to go with that scary defense now, and you’d be hard pressed to find a team in the NFL that looks much better. Getting this team without giving up points is a proposition I’d take against just about any team.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Baltimore

Oakland (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
I hate taking Oakland, trust me, I do. Jamarcus Russell is undoubtedly the worst quarterback in the league right now. But take a quick look at run defenses in the league, and you’ll see Houston’s name at the bottom of the list; they are the league’s worst rushing defense giving up over 200 yards on the ground a game. If McFadden and Bush are able to rack up yards on the ground, this game should stay close; and I believe that will be the case.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tampa Bay (+7.5) @ Washington (-7.5)
The Redskins started the season off playing against three of the NFL’s worst teams; St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. So far they barely edged out St. Louis and lost to Detroit. Smart money is probably on Tampa Bay here considering how bad Washington has looked; but I think back at home the Redskins finally put a complete game together here and take care of business.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Seattle (+10.0) @ Indianapolis (-10.0)
Indianapolis is flat out rolling. Pierre Garcon has emerged as a legitimate threat, and the Colts defense showed me a lot last week, too. Hard to see Seattle scoring a whole lot in this one, and even harder to see the Colts offense being contained.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

N.Y. Jets (+7.0) @ New Orleans (-7.0)
Always take the shutdown defense over the high-powered offense, the theory goes. But what happens when the high-powered offense also apparently has a pretty damn good defense, too? Going against the Saints is not easy, but I’ll give the Jets the respect they deserve this week; they’ve beaten some pretty damn good teams, and they should be able to at least make a game out of this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Buffalo @ Miami (Pick’em)
I don’t really know which way to go in this one, but I’m going to take Miami because this spread doesn’t make much sense to me. With Chad Pennington out and Buffalo playing decent football this year, I’d have thought they’d be favorites in this one; but the fact that it’s a pick’em leads me to believe that Vegas probably figures Miami is due for a win no matter who is under center. They have had a brutal stretch of games to start the year (Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego), and this is the first game they aren’t an underdog in, at home no less.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Miami

St. Louis (+9.5) @ San Francisco (-9.5)
San Francisco should win this one, but by 10 points? I wouldn’t be surprised, but the 49ers aren’t a blow-out type of team, and St. Louis should be able to at least keep it close. Well, I feel more comfortable with the points in this one, anyway.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

Dallas (-3.0) @ Denver (+3.0)
I’m still not sold on the Broncos. The defense has looked great, but Cleveland and Oakland will do that for you. Now they have a chance to prove themselves against a high-powered albeit turnover prone offense; and I think they will fall short. Dallas’s defense should be fine against the Broncos’ offense, and they should score enough to be pull off the road win.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

San Diego (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh (-6.0)
Interesting spread here. Pittsburgh is 1-2 and they don’t exactly have a high-powered offense; now they meet a very good San Diego team and have to give up six points? These teams almost always seem to play a close game, and taking the points is awfully tempting; but it feels like a trap. Maybe it’s San Diego traveling across the country, maybe it’s Pittsburgh mad as hell at losing two straight, but whatever it is, this spread tells me something is awry and Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

MONDAY

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre. That’s alllllll this game is about, right? How many montages will we see? Something tells me that Green Bay isn’t going to want to be a footnote Monday Night when BRETT FAVRE CONQUERS HIS OLD TEAM! This game should be an ugly one, and getting more than a field goal in a game like this is very nice; but I like the outright upset, too.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Green Bay

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 13 – 12 – 1 (.520)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam, http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 5 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A41JliRipg

Clemson -13.0
Alabama -15.5
Notre Dame -12.5
Tulsa -17.0
Oklahoma -7.5
Texas El Paso +15.0
USC/Cal Under 46.5

Good Luck This Week!
———————
Questions? Comments? Love the Dime? Hate it? Should I cut it down to a nickel?
EMAIL ME FEEDBACK!

Comments Off

By Dave Consolazio, September 25, 2009 10:00 am

Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO
And once again, the Dime comes out absurdly late. I apologize. Going through a bit of a rough patch right now, which unfortunately leads me to reverting back to my old methods of being productive; procrastinating. Thanks for understanding.

I will vent about my personal problems next week, but for now,

WOOOOOOW!

11-5 against the spread! I tend to throw this sort of week together every now and then, just like I’ll throw together it’s much more disappointing brother, the 5-11 week every so often as well. It’s a lot more fun to do this when the bounces are going your way, isn’t it?

Let’s see if we can hopefully keep this winning trend going with another strong week!

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 11 – 5 – 0 (.688)

Without the spread: 10 – 6 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 18 – 14 – 0 (.563)
Without the spread: 20 – 12 – 0 (.625)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 2 – 1 – 0 (.667)

QUICK RECAP OF LAST WEEK

THE GOOD

Carolina (+6.0) @ Atlanta (-6.0) W
Minnesota (-9.5) @ Detroit (+9.5) W
Oakland (+3.0) @ Kansas City (-3.0) W
St. Louis (+10.0) @ Washington (-10.0) W
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Green Bay (-9.5) W
Tampa Bay (+4.5) @ Buffalo (-4.5) W
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ Chicago (+3.0) W
Cleveland (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0) W
Baltimore (+3.0) @ San Diego (-3.0) W
N.Y. Giants (+3.0) @ Dallas (-3.0) W
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0) W

THE BAD

New Orleans (-1.0) @ Philadelphia (+1.0) L
New England (-3.0) @ N.Y. Jets (+3.0) L
Arizona (+3.0) @ Jacksonville (-3.0) L
Seattle (+1.0) @ San Francisco (-1.0) L
THE COULD HAVE GONE EITHER WAY/NOT MY WAY THIS WEEK:

Houston (+7.0) @ Tennessee (-7.0) L

THE “WHAT THE $%^@”?:

NONE

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
^ – Indicates Philosophical Pick

SUNDAY

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Houston (-3.5)
Man, I put some faith in Jacksonville last week and was punished severely for that. Dating back to last year, this team looks totally out of sync and just finds ways to lose football games. Houston’s defense is going to have to get a lot better, but I think they will build on last week’s big win with another one at home this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

Tennessee (+2.0) @ N.Y. Jets (-2.0)
For the third straight week I’ll be going against the Jets; but it is no longer because I don’t believe in them. This is clearly going to be a pretty darn good football team this year, and the “rebuild” may not take as long as expected. That said, they are facing a Tennessee team that is now 0-2 and is in dire need of a win, as not many teams start off the season 0-3 and end up making the playoffs. The Jets maybe getting a touch over-confident and the veteran Titans stepping up in a game they can’t lose spells out upset

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

Green Bay (-6.5) @ St. Louis (+6.5)
After dropping a frustrating game to Cincinnati last week, I can’t see Green Bay not being focused this week; and it’s hard to see St. Louis putting any points on the board. Not thrilled with giving up nearly a touchdown, but I think Green Bay gets in done easily enough.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

Washington (-6.5) @ Detroit (+6.5)
I’m so torn on this game. Honestly, Detroit really is this bad; and even though they’ve shown some signs of improvement they really shouldn’t beat Washington and should be getting more points. That said, if they are ever going to win one, this has to be the type of game they do it in; Washington’s offense has been painfully quiet, and they just barely squeaked by St. Louis at home. Now they head on the road to a Detroit team obviously hungry for a win… part of me says Washington destroys them, but I have to get with my initial reaction and say the Lions get it done.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

San Francisco (+7.0) @ Minnesota (-7.0)
Dating back to last season, San Francisco is 7-2 in the last nine games they have played, and one of the two losses was by five points. This is a competitive football team. Yes, Minnesota matches up well against them; they have a great rushing defense, and San Francisco relies on running the football. But as much as I respect Minnesota, San Francisco has proven to be a tough team to play against, and they could at least keep it close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota

Atlanta (+4.5) @ New England (-4.5)
Looking like New England is going to be one of my trouble teams this year, but here are the facts; if this team was wearing any other jersey, all these excuses wouldn’t keep getting made for them. Atlanta seems to have picked up right where they left off last year, and New England is clearly not in sync and should be 0-2; at this point in time, Atlanta is the better football team. AND I get 4.5 points? Great, sign me up.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

N.Y. Giants (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay (+6.5)
My only philosophy pick of the year that has lost so far, I’m giving Tampa Bay another shot. Let’s try to follow along; Week 1, Dallas easily stomps Tampa Bay in Tampa Bay. Week 2, New York Giants BEAT the Cowboys, while the Bucs lose again by double digits to Buffalo. Now try to explain to me how the Giants aren’t even a TD favorite? And how 80+% of the betting action is on the Giants and the line isn’t moving? Somethings fishy… lousy Bucs again!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Baltimore (-13.5)
I’d love to take Cleveland here; remember, KC put up 24 on Baltimore in Week 1. This isn’t looking like the shutdown defense we’re used to, and 13.5 is a lot of points. But man, the Browns look hopeless. Hate going against a division rival and giving up two touchdowns, but I’d hate being on Cleveland even more.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

Kansas City (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
Okay, I know Kansas City is bad; but no McNabb, Westbrook playing hurt/not playing at all, DeSean Jackson also not 100%… this is a beat up Eagles team. If not for Jake Delhomme’s implosion, who knows what that game could have been? After a humiliating loss at home to the Raiders, I think the Cheifs put forth their best effort this week and keep the loss to single-digits.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

Chicago (-2.5) @ Seattle (+2.5)
Chicago beats the defending Super Bowl champions. Seattle gets destroyed by San Francisco. Seattle loses their QB Matt Hasselbeck, and one of their best defensive players, Lofa Tatupu. But instead of being +8 or +9, they are… +2.5?!? Clearly the bookmakers know that there is more to this game than what meets the eye, and I’ll trust them.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle

New Orleans (-6.0) @ Buffalo (+6.0)
A lot of people like Buffalo in this spot with weather reports saying there may be heavy rains, which would slow down New Orleans’ passing attack and tip the scales in Buffalo’s favor. Fair enough. I say that the Saints have such a talented and deep offense that no matter how the weather ends up, they’ll find a way to score, and do so often. We shall see.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
I like home underdogs. I also like division rival underdogs. Put the two together, and you’ve got a side worth playing; this one just screams late fieldgoal for the win, doesn’t it? I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win it, but not by more than three.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinatti
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Denver (-2.0) @ Oakland (+2.0)
In a season that Jamarcus Russell needed to take his game to the next level, he has done the opposite; looking as bad as he ever has through the first two games. I still see a lot of potential in him, made no more apparent than his comeback drive on the Chiefs at the end of the game. But he will need to be better for Oakland to win this week; they need to start competing with him, not in spite of him. I have to take the Raiders in this spot; I think defensively they are more than capible of stopping Denver, and I’m still not sold on the Broncos at all. This game will tell us a lot about both of these teams.

PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

Miami (+5.5) @ San Diego (-5.5)
This one is a tough one as both of these teams are extremely difficult to figure out. I feel like I have to take the points though as I see this being a defensive game. Miami has done a fairly good job against two very good offenses in Indianapolis and Atlanta, and I’m not sold on the Chargers defensively. That said, they Bolts will likely come out on top; but in a close one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Indianapolis (+3.0) @ Arizona (-3.0)
The amount of plays that the Colts’ defense saw last week was insane. They were on the field for virtually the entire game and were extremely fatigued. It would be hard enough to recover from that game if it weren’t a Monda night; losing that extra day of rest is brutal. Against an offense as high-powered as Arizona, I get the feeling Indy has a hangover this week and is handled by the defending NFC champs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

MONDAY

Carolina (+9.0) @ Dallas (-9.0)
I hate laying this many points, as honestly, it is too many. Dallas shouldn’t be this big of a favorite. All that aside, I still think they win this game by double digits. After last week’s disheartning loss at home on national television, Dallas gets another shot this week; and I think they put up a ton of points and win this one by double digits. Smart money is probably on the Panthers, but who ever said I was smart?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 13 – 12 – 1 (.520)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: Check out the website I run with my best friend Sam,
http://www.allpac10.com! Content updated daily.

Week 4 Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02uHF0GcXdU

Cincinnati -16.5 (LOSS)
Air Force -16.5 (LOSS)
Oregon +5.5 (WIN)
Navy -28.0 (LOSS)
Tennessee -23.5 (LOSS)
Vanderbilt -7.0 (WIN)
Texas Tech +1.0 (TIE)

Good Luck This Week!
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