My apologies to all of my readers that check here regularly. I usually update 4 – 5 times a week, and its inexcusable I’ve left it un-updated this long. I’ve had a very long and busy week. Besides that, some of the things I want to blog on needed to be postponed for a little while;

Jason Giambi – waiting for something to actually HAPPEN before I give an opinion on it… so far its been all talk.

NBA Draft Lottery – look for this one in the very near future… but I’m still “cranky” over the Robert Horry incident, and am not in the best mood to blog about the NBA.

And, of course, the Cup Finals.

The reason I have waited is due to the fact that the Finals don’t actually start until Monday, and I think it is extremely important to soak in as much information (and, more importantly, press) as possible. Take for example Sean Avery running his mouth about how his Rangers were going to “hurt” the Buffalo Sabres. Smart. Give the best team in the league MORE motivation to beat you. And they did take both of the first 2 games at home.

Both of these teams have been classy (this certainly isn’t the media equivalent of MEDIA WEEK in the NFL before the Super Bowl, especially here in the states, is it?) and haven’t said anything disrespectful about their opponents. Both teams are confident, and they both should be. They’ve played some good hockey to get here.

I did stumble on a good article a few days ago. It tells the story of a young 3-year-old who died of a rare form of childhood cancer called neuroblastoma. The boy was a die-hard Senators fan, who got to meet the team and became an inspiration to them. He defied the odds and stayed alive long enough to watch his favorite team beat the Sabres and make it to the Stanley Cup Finals. It is a great story and its ashame its only being heard in Canada. Here is the link; make sure you have some Kleenex handy; Elgin’s Story.

Thus the importance of researching the media. Is this little boy’s story going to be the sole deciding factor in this series? Of course not. But when two excellent, very evenly matched hockey teams meet up and something as simple as who wants it more is the deciding factor… you think Elgin’s picture won’t be hanging high in the Senator’s locker room? As if the already-more-dedicated-to-their-team-than-Duck’s-fans Senator fans needed MORE to cheer about to give their team that extra little edge at home?

Here goes nothing.

#2 Anaheim Ducks (48 – 20 – 14 regular season, 12 – 4 post season) VS.
#4 Ottawa Senators (48 – 25 – 9 regular season, 12 – 3 post season)

Two 48 win teams, two teams that haven’t won a Stanley Cup (well, not the modern day Senators who were born in 1992; a team of the same name won it 80 years ago), two teams that have worked extremely hard to get to this point and deserve to have their names ingrained into Lord Stanley’s Cup.

And yet, only one can.

You really can’t go wrong picking either of the teams in this series. The Ducks have two of the top 3 defensemen in the league in Chris Pronger and Scott Neidermayer, as well as a goaltender who is nothing short of spectacular come playoff time in Jean-Sebastion Giguere. The Senators have 3 of the top 4 point scorers in these playoffs in Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson; all the more impressive considering the fact that they’ve played less games than the Sabres, Ducks, and Wings have (The Wings’ Nick Lidstrom (18 pts) knocks Alfredsson’s 17 points out of the top 3 with his teammates by just one point… but Lidstrom played in 3 more games).

So, OTTAWA OFFENSE VS. DUCK DEFENSE? Not quite. As catchy as that may be, the Ducks also happened to finish 9th overall during the regular season in scoring (Sens 2nd)… and the Senators happened to finish 10th overall in goals against (Ducks 7th). So neither of these teams has a real weakness, which makes this series so darn interesting.

You all know how much I hate the Ducks, but let me make perfectly clear that I know what a good hockey team they are, and I’m looking really hard for any reason to pick them, because I don’t want it to be an emotional pick. You’ll notice that I’ve said the Ducks are the best in the West… and that they are. But I thought Buffalo was the best team in the league, and they were handled quite easily by the Ottawa Senators. Think back a few years ago to the Pittsburgh Steelers team that came in on a wild card and tore through everyone en route to a Super Bowl victory. There were “better” teams, but not in those playoffs their weren’t. The Senators give me a similar vibe. They’ve beaten the best young team in the game (Pittsburgh), the best goaltender in the game (Brodeur), and the best team in the game (Buffalo), all handily. Why shouldn’t they beat the best team in the West?

But then, the Ducks could make similar claims. They beat the best defensive team in the game (Minnesota), the “best goaltender in the game” (Luongo), and the “best team in the game” (Detroit). After all, Luongo and Brodeur are the clear 1 and 2 but it is tough to decide between them. And Detroit finished with the same point total as Buffalo: 113 (albeit in a much easier division).

Stats make things even more complexing. The Senator’s defense/goaltending has been better than the Ducks, allowing only 2.12 goals per game to the Ducks 2.17. However, the Sens run is not only better by .05; they’ve faced the leagues’ 1st, 4th, and 27th ranked offenses (Average 10.67) to the Ducks’ 10th, 19th, and 22nd (Average 17).

And needless to say the Sens have scored plenty more goals than the Ducks (3.2 goals a game to the Ducks 2.62), but they have done so against the league’s 4th, 13th, and 14th ranked defenses. The Ducks meanwhile have had to face the league’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th ranked defenses. Maybe they are due for an offensive explosion?

Dizzy yet? Lets just move on to the questions;

Mom asked

Do you think it actually comes down to goal tending on which team will win the cup?

Well, yes and no. You can’t win a series on goaltending alone (ask Roberto Luongo and Marty Turco about that), but you can certainly lose a series on goaltending alone. If a goalie is on, he gives his team an excellent chance to win. And, if he isn’t, he gives them an excellent chance to lose. All eyes are on Ottawa goaltender Ray Emery; JS Giguere has proven he’s the real deal in the playoffs. Emery has done an excellent job not only stopping high octane offenses in Buffalo (1st overall) and Pittsburgh (4th overall), but also out-dueling some of the game’s great young goalies in Ryan Miller and Marc-Andre Fluery, as well as the games best, Martin Brodeur. I don’t think he’ll have to be perfect at all to win the cup; but he’ll need to be good. And, depending on how JS plays, he just might have to be great.

Can you tell me the records of Ottawa and the Ducks?

They are listed above. Of course, you could have just gone to any major sports web page for that info… but I appreciate you coming here instead!

Do the east coast teams play better, or harder games than the west?

That’s debatable. In the old days, the style of play was much rougher in the East than it was in the West. Nowadays, I’d say its evened out a bit. The big difference between the conferences this year was parity (which means strength from top to bottom in sports). The East was more evenly matched up; 13 of their 15 teams finished with 75 or more points, compared to only 10 of 15 in the West. But the West had 7 teams with 100 or more points to the East’s 4. What it really comes down to in the new NHL isn’t conferences so much as it is divisions. Teams play 8 games against each of their division rivals. So if you are in a weak division with only 2 strong teams, you can easily rise to the top. If you are in a tough division with either 5 competitive teams OR 3 excellent teams, your road will be difficult. Good hockey is good hockey and bad hockey is bad hockey, East, West, North, and South.

Josh asked; Anaheim Ducks or Ottawa Senators – WHO YA GOT?

And isn’t that the point of this whole post? As you can read, you can’t go wrong with either of these teams. They are both great. And they both don’t know each other, so you really don’t know what to expect. Since the stats didn’t solve it, I have to look no further than the quality of hockey played. In my opinion, as good as the Ducks are, they have looked vulnerable, and they have been outplayed by inferior teams, and they have barely found ways to win games that they didn’t deserve to win. Honestly, as much as I like the Sabres, they were the same way this year. Not the Senators. They have played flat out excellent hockey in all 15 games they have played; all 3 of their losses were 1 goal games. These are two evenly matched teams. Flip a coin and pick a side. The side with the Senators logo on it, however, is a little shinier. And I make this pick as a hockey analyst, not a bitter Kings fan.

OTTAWA IN 6.

(http://vegasdavesdime.blogspot.com/2007/05/stanley-cup-finals-ask-me-anything-3.html)

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