Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

The big game is about 10 hours away as I start writing this, and I still have no real idea of who I’m going to be picking in tomorrow’s game. For two weeks, all of my friends and family have been asking me, (non-playoff) football expert Dave, to let them in on who was going to win the game. And I’ve said I don’t know. So I’m going to break down the numbers, break down the psyches, and make my decision on the spot. One things for sure; whoever I choose WILL lose this game. That’s just how I work.

I Bow to the Steelers

The Steelers alone are responsible for making my picks as pitiful as they have been this offseason, picking against them has made me 0 – 3 in games against them in these playoffs.

Cincinnati – I say that sure, they’ve won four straight coming in, but they can’t stop the high powered Cinci offense.

Wrong.

Indianapolis – Sure, they got lucky, injured Carson Palmer. Same thing isn’t going to happen to Peyton Manning. If he stays healthy, there is absolutely no stopping him.

Wrong.

Denver – Okay, yeah, you caught the Colts rusty. But the Broncos are in full swing, and you aren’t going to be able to pressure Jake Plummer like you did Manning.

WRONG.

They have made me pay three times, and I’ve deserved it.

What has years and years of football experience taught me, whether I choose to acknowledge it or not? Defense wins championships. So, why can’t I accept this? Pittsburgh’s defense, or “Palamolu and the gang” as I call them, is as explosive a defense as I’ve ever seen; their blitzing is insane, and their coverage if you happen to slip through said blitz is equally impressive. You just can’t score on these guys when they buckle down.

But no, that is far from all. This isn’t like the Ravens team of 2000 that can stop anything, but can’t score on offense to save their lives. Nay, this Steeler offense is phenomonal, led by strong, gritty running backs and, most importantly, Big Ben Roethlisberger.

This kid is an absolute pheonom. He is 23 years old. Thats right, 23 years old, and this is only his second year in the league. Yet somehow, on the road, he has composure similar to mine in a french fry eating contest. Have I been in a french fry eating contest? No. But if you know me, you know that I’d be pretty damn composed. Point being, this kid is the real deal, and has a very real chance of covering that throwing hand of his in Super Bowl rings by the time his career is over. And he’s got one for the taking this Super Bowl Sunday.

Lightning does strike twice, and it does strike a third time, as well. But I absolutely should not make the foolish decision of picking against these guys for a fourth straight game. Yes, I’ll be wearing my Alexander jersey, but I’ll probably be doing so with my money on the Steelers.

To all of you that told me the Steelers were going all the way, and that I was a damn fool for picking against them, enjoy your “I told you sos”. You earned them, I suppose, and I am quite humbled by this team. The craziest part? They’ve done it all on the road.

The Seahawks: The Anti-Steelers

What the Steelers have been to my losing woes, these guys have been to my success. They alone have made up for 66% of my wins with the spread this playoff season, and 50% of my wins straight up. Not only have they won games against teams that they should win against, but they have also won convincingly in the process.

I always said that Mike Holmgrem was a terrible, terrible coach – simply because I’ve been waiting for the Seahawks to have this season for quite a while. I blamed him for the team’s inability to convert in the clutch, to make the big plays when they counted. In retrospect, was that really fair? Is his huge, bulbous figure out there dropping wide open balls, fumbling at the most inopportune times? No, it isn’t. And despite what I (and many others) have said in the past, this guy was good enough to get this team to the Super Bowl; and that should hush up any doubt on his coaching abilities or job security (guess I’ll have to keep picking on his weight, instead).

These guys are good, everyone. They have won 13 of their last 14 games (and the one that they lost was a meaningless game against the Packers that they were not even trying to win). They have taken on and beaten without trouble a Washington team that came into these playoffs with a momentum matching that of the Steelers, and a Carolina Panthers team that made one of the best defenses in the league (the Bears) look silly.

They have had such a good season and a post season to boot that they just may sucker me in to picking against the Steelers for the 4th straight time.

And God help me if I do.

THE RECORD

Season (Final)
With the spread: 138 – 111 – 7 (.554)
Without the spread: 167 – 89 – 0 (.652)
$$Money Picks$$: 33 – 22 – 5 (.600)
^^Zen Picks^^: 27 – 13 – 1 (.675)

Playoffs Last Week

With the spread: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 1 – 1 (.500)
$$Money Picks$$: 0 – 0 – 0 (N/A)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 0 – 0 (.000)

Playoffs

With the spread: 3 – 7 – 0 (.300)
Without the spread: 4 – 6 (.400)
$$Money Picks$$: 1 – 1 – 0 (.500)
^^Zen Picks^^: 0 – 1 – 0 (.000)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Brilliance?!?)

Carolina 14 13 – 5 (+6.0) @ Seattle 34 14 – 3 (-6.0)
They stopped Steve Smith. They won the game easily. These two facts are not a coincidence. Add another WR and get healthy in the backfield, and Carolina will have a team on their hands for years to come. But not this year.
OVER/UNDER 44: LOSS – UNDER
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle

Pittsburgh 34 13 – 5 (+3.0) @ Denver 17 14 – 3 (-3.0)
When I bet on Plummer, I was betting to the Plummer that led his team to a 14 – 3 season, not the one that gets into the slightest bit of trouble and tosses the ball up for grabs so that his teammates, the other team, the sideline crews, and the ushers all have an equal chance of catching it. My money goes on the Steelers in that 4-way. Then again, maybe it’s not Plummer’s fault; ask Peyton and Carson how they feel about playing against the Steelers D.
OVER/UNDER 41.5: WIN – OVER
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Denver

THE PICK

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Seattle 15 – 3 (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh 14 – 5 (-3.0)

So heres how we’re gonna do it. First, we’re gonna look at the math. Then, I’ll throw in my two cents… or Dime I guess… or quarter, whatever currency I’m in the mood for. And then – The final decision!

THE MATH (AKA THE STATS)
(YPG = Yards Per Game, PPG = Points Per Game, PG = Per Game, TO = Turnover)

Seattle Offense / Pittsburgh Defense:
Scored 28.3 PPG (Best in NFL) / Gave up 16.1 PPG (4th Best in NFL)
Rushed for 153.6 YPG (3rd Best in NFL) / Gave up 85.5 YPG (3rd Best in NFL)
Passed for 216.3 YPG (13th in NFL) / Gave up 198 YPG (16th in NFL)
Got sacked 1.6 times PG (4th Best in NFL) / Sacked 2.9 times PG (3rd Best in NFL)
Gave up 1.1 TOPG (2nd Best in NFL) / Forced 1.9 TOPG (12th in NFL)

Pittsburgh Offense / Seattle Defense:
Scored 24.3 PPG (9th in NFL) / Gave up 16.9 PPG (7th in NFL)
Rushed for 138.9 YPG (5th Best in NFL) / Gave up 94.4 YPG (5th Best in NFL)
Passed for 182.9 YPG (24th in NFL) / Gave up 222.4 YPG (25th in NFL)
Got sacked 2 times PG (15th in NFL) / Sacked 3.1 times PG (Best in NFL)
Gave up 1.4 TOPG (8th in NFL) / Forced 1.7 TOPG (19th in NFL)

What does it all mean? Lets average it out.

SCORING
Seattle (28.3 + 16.1)/2 = 22.2
Pittsburgh (24.3 + 16.9)/2 = 20.6
ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

RUSHING
Seattle = 119.55
Pittsburgh = 116.65
ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

PASSING
Seattle = 207.15
Pittsburgh = 202.65
ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

SACKS FORCED
Seattle = 2.55
Pittsburgh = 2.25
ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

TURNOVERS FORCED
Seattle = 1.55
Pittsburgh = 1.5
ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

Seattle with a clean sweep. That sure is interesting. Caught me off guard.

THE THOUGHTS (AKA WHERE IT ALL GOES TO HELL)

Granted, the stats above don’t tell you much of anything, the playoffs are a completely seperate entity, the Steelers have been playing significantly better football of late, etc. etc. Still, it strikes me as interesting that the team that was statistically sounder over the course of the season, ended up with the better record, and did nothing at all in the playoffs to hinder anyone’s beliefs in their abilities is going into this game as the underdog.

Is anyone asking why? The answer is pretty simple; the Steelers are making mincemeat out of the favorites. The Colts were a shoo-in for the Super Bowl, and they controlled the tempo on them from the start. The Broncos, another team with a better record and a team that beat the playoff-invincible Patriots, were also made fools of by this Steelers team. They look (and play) like they are completely unstoppable. That’s why for about 4 days after their beating the Broncos, I said “I’m not going to pick against this team a 4th straight time. I can’t. I won’t.”

But then (and this is likely where my great fallacy will be), I got to thinking.

The Seahawks have had a brilliant season, and have matched up against any and all opponents with almost flawless execution. They were, statistically and in my opinion, the 2nd best team in the NFL this year. The best team, the Colts, hadn’t played a serious game of football in a month, and the Steelers jumped right out and took advantage of that. They will not have the luxury of playing a rusty team this time.

This two week break is the main reason, I decided moments ago, that the Steelers are going to lose this game. First and formost, all of the momentum they have built up over the last 7 games (they won the last 4 of the regular season) will have cooled off a bit. Also, no telling how they will come off of the bye: We know the Seahawks can do it, as they took care of the red-hot Redskins without much trouble at all. Secondly, and of equal importance, I really have not liked the demeanor of the Steelers team. They DESERVE to be the cockiest team in the world; they did beat the 1 2 and 3 seeds in the AFC. They (perhaps rightfully so) think they are unbeatable. Jerome Bettis guarenteed victory. And the press has eaten it all up and supported it; it seems like the Steelers have already won in many of these papers.

Pittsburgh has won their share of Super Bowls, they are in against a team thats never been! They are EXPECTED to win this game. As of 7:06 AM, as I’m typing this sentence, heres what the ESPN Poll looks like;

37.1% Steelers will win a close game
33.1% Seahawks will win a close game
19.5% Steelers will win easily
10.3% Seahawks will win easily

56.6% figure that the Steelers are going to win this game. So do the experts, and the media. For Seattle, “just getting there is something enough to be proud of”. For that reason, they can play with NOTHING TO LOSE.

And a team that is playing with nothing to lose is a very, very dangerous thing.

Both of these teams are just so good.

Sure, I’m probably putting the final nail in the coffin on my career as a sports analyst here. Sure, no team I ‘ve rooted for has ever won the Super Bowl (thats a fact – every year). Sure, I said I wouldn’t make a fool out of myself and pick against this team a 4th straight week.

The bright side? Either way, a Trojan Line Backer wins a Super Bowl ring.

Shoot me now, or worship me later.

Seattle 31 – Pittsburgh 21

OVER/UNDER 47: OVER
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Seattle

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For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime
Have a great weekend everyone!

MY TEAMS RECORDS
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 30 – 21 – 5
*USC TROJANS: 12 – 1 – 0*
*OAKLAND RAIDERS: 4 – 12 – 0*

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 638
OPPONENTS 297

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