Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

First off, I’d like to welcome all of you who are recieving this column for the first time. Hopefully you enjoy deleting it weekly as much as all of my regulars do. If that becomes a hassle, let me know, and I’ll gladly take you off the list; but give it a shot. It’s free after all, and I put lots of work in to it.

I’m coming off not only my longest issue ever, but my most successful week this year, boasting winning records in every field. Of course, the story of the week has to be the success of my Zen of Gambling book, which debuted last week and was right on all 4 picks that it influenced. And whats more, I lost 2 games by 1 point and 1 game by half a point. I was a collected field goal away from being 11 – 3. Perhaps it truly is enlightning – lets see if it can carry over into this week, or if it was simply an amazing fluke. Well, I’m not even going to bother trying to match up to last weeks column in length – I’m not coming off of the biggest college football game of the year, after all. But, we still have the NFL and the World Series to talk about, so lets get right in to it.

Sigh of relief, Trojan fans. Leinarts back. We’ve been able to win without him playing well, but if he really is back, prepare for alot of blowouts as the season goes on. As for worries about our defense, remember, this was the idea – they stop the opponent a few times, we score every time. As long as our offense is clicking as it should be, our defense shouldn’t be called upon to win football games too often, if ever. Interesingly enough though, we’ve failed to cover the spread 4 straight weeks now; last year we covered it almost weekly.

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 8 – 6 – 0 (.571)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
$$Money Picks$$: 2 – 1 – 0 (.666)
^^Zen Picks^^: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 42 – 45 – 1 (.483)
Without the spread: 51 – 37 – 0 (.580)
$$Money Picks$$: 5 – 8 – 1 (.385)
^^Zen Picks^^: 4 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

Atlanta 34 3 – 2 (-3.5) @ New Orleans 31 2 – 3 (+3.5)
“This is one of the few games I’m flat out going against my Zen book on. It states that you should take the team that just got pounded into submission last week, as they will be more likely to play their hearts out.” – Too bad, that would have been 5 – 0 with the Zen. Half a point hurts, though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Atlanta

Carolina 21 3 – 2 @ Detroit 20 2 – 2 (Pick’em)
Another rediculously close one. Unfortunately for me, I was one point in the wrong direction.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Detroit

Cincinnati 31 4 – 1 (-3.0) @ Tennessee 23 2 – 3 (+3.0)
Told you this one would be a piece of cake.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Cincinnati

Cleveland 3 2 – 2 (+4.0) @ Baltimore 16 1 – 3 (-4.0)
Numbers don’t matter when both teams suck, I guess.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Cleveland

Jacksonville 23 3 – 2 (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh 17 3 – 1 (-3.0)
Great money picking Dave, battered up team VS. strong young team. Brilliant.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – $Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – Pittsburgh

Miami 13 2 – 2 (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay 27 4 – 1 (-4.0)
Miami started off strong, but it looks like they are going nowhere fast. As for Tampa Bay, they are one of the league’s biggest surprises.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Tampa Bay

Minnesota 3 1 – 3 (+1.5) @ Chicago 28 1 – 3 (-1.5)
I’m not happy that the Zen pick screwed a team I like out of a win, but then, it makes me look good that I got it right, huh?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Chicago

N.Y. Giants 13 3 – 1 (+4.0) @ Dallas 16 3 – 2 (-4.0)
To quote Ross Williamson, my buddy Sam’s roomate; “Jose F***ing Cortez, are you kidding me?” (Referring to Dallas’s field goal kicker, who sucks, but kicked the game winning field goal anyways). Dallas wins, but not convincingly enough to cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Dallas

Washington 21 3 – 1 (+6.0) @ Kansas City 28 2 – 2 (-6.0)
“This spread is ridiculous, in my opinion. And because of that, I’m going to go with the philosophy that Vegas WANTS me to think this way, and go the opposite way.” – Thank, ZoG!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Kansas City

N.Y. Jets 17 2 – 3 (+3.0) @ Buffalo 27 2 – 3 (-3.0)
“Everything in my heart says the Jets are going to win. But the numbers completely disagree.” – Again, the ZoG comes up big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Buffalo

San Diego 27 2 – 3 (-2.0) @ Oakland 14 1 – 3 (+2.0)
“I’ll be honest with you, San Diego is probably going to win this game.” – Then why didn’t you pick them, you moron?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: LOSS – *Oakland

St. Louis 28 2 – 3 (+12.5) @ Indianapolis 45 5 – 0 (-12.5)
“There’s a reason the spread is this far apart: St. Louis can not stop the pass, and a guy named Peyton Manning, he’s GOT the pass. And the Colts defense is so strong this year that they can actually STOP a team like St. Louis. So yeah, I’ll give the 12.5, and hope for the best.” – After going down 17 – 0, the Colts went on an offensive fluery, and covered the spread for me.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – ^Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Indianapolis

DAMN, I’M GOOD

New England 20 3 – 2 (+3.0) @ Denver 28 4 – 1 (-3.0)
This isn’t the New England team we all have grown accustomed to. This team had trouble beating a Vickless Falcon team. They are not strong on defense. They have no running game. Denver, as much as I hate their guts, is putting together an excellent season. And at home, they are as sound as they come. Spells bad news for the defending super bowl champions.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Denver
– Just picking the team I hate most against the defending super bowl champions and winning with it makes me pretty proud.

Houston 10 0 – 4 (+8.5) @ Seattle 42 3 – 2 (-8.5)
The first of two large-spread games, and I’m giving the points in both of them. Seattle has played very well this season, and is phenomenal at home. As for Houston? They’ve done nothing this season to convince anyone that they are capable of winning. Their losing ways will continue with a Seattle slaughter here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: WIN – $Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: WIN – Seattle
– “Seattle slaughter” is what made this a great pick.

HOUSTON ASTROS OVER ST. LOUIS CARDINALS IN 6
Picking against the dominant Cardinals never feels quite right. But I am a firm believer in the “pitching wins championships” theory, as proven by the Johnson Schilling 1 2 punch in 2001. As for the Astros, they pack a 1 2 3 punch in Clemens Pettite Oswalt, and with Brandon Backe pitching insanely well at home over his career (10 – 3, 3.12 ERA) it may very well just be an unhittable staff. Houston wins convincingly.
– Ok, so it isn’t football, but its impressive nonetheless, I got it to the number of games! Not bad huh?

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

Kansas City 30 4 – 2 (-2.0) @ Miami 20 2 – 4 (+2.0)
This game was played on Friday. I had it picked before that, and even had it jotted down as a money pick. I’m going to give you that commentary – those of you that know me know that I’m an honest person, and that I wouldn’t cheat. Those that don’t… get to work on a time machine, travel back to Wednesday, and ask me who I’m taking in the Chief’s game and how confident I am.
“Sure, Kansas City has lost 2 games, but both to very respectable teams, the Eagles and the Broncos. Miami is not a respectable team – they are going in the right direction, but are not capible of playing with a team like Kansas City just yet. The Chiefs should win this one without a problem.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Kansas City

Detroit 2 – 3 (+2.0) @ Cleveland 2 – 3 (-2.0)
Detroit burned me by one point last week, and I’m hoping that trend doesn’t repeat itself. This one is pretty much a pick’em in my book, but the numbers and my heart both point at Detroit victory.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Green Bay 1 – 4 (-1.0) @ Minnesota 1 – 4 (+1.0)
When one team is coming off getting beaten in a blowout is facing a team that just blew their opponent out, always take the team that was blown out last week. They, after all, have more to prove this week, and can catch their over-confident opponents offguard. So says the book of Zen. GB wins 52 – 3, Minnesota loses 28 – 3. So, I take the often-leave-much-to-be-desired Vikings in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Minnesota

Indianapolis 6 – 0 (-14.5) @ Houston 0 – 5 (+14.5)
Read the above commentary on the Minnesota game. Almost every single rule in my Zen book applies to this game. David Vs. Goliath theory (pick David w/ the spread), Blow out VS. Blown out (as mentioned above), Huge spread differential after a Monday night performance by the favorite (14.5 is pretty heavy), Underdog preparing and taking this game like its the super bowl while favorites take the game for granted. Do I believe all this? Not really, Indianapolis has the best defense and the 6th best offense in the league, next to Houston’s worst offense in the league and 29th ranked defense. This game should be about 70 – 3 for Indi. But the Zen book is hot, and after a 4 – 0 debut, I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. It can afford to be wrong once, I suppose.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

New Orleans 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ St. Louis 2 – 4 (-3.0)
I’ve changed this pick about 5 times, as both teams are 2 – 4 for a reason; they seem to find pleasure in screwing themselves out of wins. However, the final decision is based on Bulger being out. After seeing Jamie Martin COMPLETELY blow the game against the Colts, I’m going to say he doesnt have what it takes and give NO the ever so slight edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

Pittsburgh 3 -2 (+2.5) @ Cincinnati 5 – 1 (-2.5)
With Roethlisburger back, the Steelers are not going to be easy to beat. But Cincinnati is the real deal this year. They are strong on both sides of the ball, they make the fewest turnovers and force the most turnovers. They are one mistake away (against Jacksonville) from being 6 – 0. They take this one in Cinci.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

San Diego 3 – 3 (+4.0) @ Philadelphia 3 – 2 (-4.0)
Donovan McNabb is not 100%, and it has shown with his poor play. Tomlinson IS 100%, and that too has shown with his brilliance. San Diego’s defense often makes its fans cringe, but I think it will be able to hold fort long enough for Brees and Tomlinson to tear up Philidelphia’s defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $*San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *San Diego

San Francisco 1 – 4 (+11.5) @ Washington 3 – 2 (-11.5)
San Fransisco ALWAYS gets blown out, and Washington never blows anyone out. So, which trend gives first? I say its Washington’s. They are a far superior team, at home, and they shouldn’t have too big of a problem putting up a 14 or 21 point lead and holding it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

Dallas 4 – 2 (+3.5) @ Seattle 4 – 2 (-3.5)
Two strong teams here, but Seattle is just a bit stronger. This game COULD go either way, but for whatever reason, Seattle ALWAYS wins at home. Maybe its sleeping in their own beds all week? Well, they won big at home last week, and I believe that they just might do the same again this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

Baltimore 2 – 3 (+1.0) @ Chicago 2 – 3 (-1.0)
Every week I get my Baltimore pick wrong, so I don’t know why I’m making this one a money pick. Still, Chicago’s playing its second straight home game against its second straight lousy opponent. Everything adds up to a Bears victory here – but then, I’m picking them, and that throws the equation off.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

Buffalo 3 – 3 (+3.0) @ Oakland 1 – 4 (-3.0)
This pick will confuse you – I had to talk myself OUT of picking Buffalo. That’s right. After the San Diego mistake, I was convinced not to do the same again. I checked the numbers, and it turns out that Buffalo has the worst running defense in the league. No Randy Moss, the Raiders should do a nice bit of running this Sunday. They should also be able to stop Buffalo’s weak offense. And the records of the teams are no indication; Buffalo’s wins were against the Jets (2 – 4), the Dolphins (2 – 4), and the Texans (0 – 5). The Raiders have played 5 games this season, none against an opponent under .500. Also take into consideration the zen rule of weird looking spreads; why would a 1 – 4 team be favored against a 3 – 3 team? They are not as bad as their record says they are, and they will get the win here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $^Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Oakland

Denver 5 – 1 @ N.Y. Giants 3 – 2 (Pick’em)
The Giants have played very well… against teams that they should play well against. Dejavu, here come some numbers again. Their three wins are against St. Louis, New Orleans, and Arizona, who combined come together for a whopping 5 – 12 record. Denver, on the other hand, plays well against everyone. After their first game slip up (which is standard in football), they have won 5 straight, against legitimite teams too (Combined record of 18 – 10; 5 of those losses coming from the Broncos). They are the better team, and they are much to my dismay the real deal. They will win this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: $Denver
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver

Tennessee 2 – 4 (+3.0) @ Arizona 1 – 4 (-3.0)
This game really racks my brain, as both teams suck, and are equally capible of losing this game. Trust me, I think the cup is half full, but in this game, theres no winner, theres just more of a loser. And more of a loser, as indicated by their record, is the Arizona Cardinals.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tennessee

N.Y. Jets 2 – 4 (+7.0) @ Atlanta 4 – 2 (-7.0)
Everytime I have to pick a Jets game, I shake my head at what could have been this season, as injuries have plagued them like no other. But, what could have been doesn’t change the fact that they are a complete mess right now, and the Falcons shouldn’t have too much of a problem cleaning them up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

PLAYOFF BASEBALL COMMENTS

WORLD SERIES 2005
HOUSTON ASTROS OVER CHICAGO WHITE SOX IN 6
Great game today, as what should have been a pitchers duel turned into a slugfest early, including Roger Clemens getting injured, which could potentially devastate the Astros. But I don’t think so. Chicago ended up winning it 5 – 3, but I believe that their success will be short lived. Don’t get me wrong; I think they have a fantastic ball club, and actually, these teams match up perfectly; they get hits when they need them and have absolutely dominating starting pitchers. Pettite and Oswalt are just a bit stronger than Buerhle and Garland in my opinion, and thats going to make the difference in this series. In what should be 6 exciting games, Houston takes the series and gives Biggio and Bagwell that championship they so desperately deserve. This series also gives Roy Oswalt the chance to permanently add his name into the elite category of pitchers in the league.

KINGS HOCKEY

Just one quick note on the Kings. This Wednesday and Thursday, the Kings played back to back games against two of their toughest rivals, the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. It is extremely difficult to win on back to back nights. Its even more difficult to do so on the road. And against two strong rivals? But the Kings did it, one in comeback fashion (scoring four unanswered goals to come back from a 4 – 1 defecit and win the game 5 – 4 against Colorado), and one in blowout fashion (crushing the Stars 7 – 2). If you aren’t a hockey fan, maybe you oughta give it a try; it looks like hockey is back in a big way in LA.

Enjoy your Sunday and the rest of your week! Love it? Hate it? Please send feedback! For past issues of the DIME, visit my website: Dave’s Dime

MY TEAMS RECORDS
OAKLAND RAIDERS: 1 – 4 – 0
USC TROJANS: 7 – 0 – 0
LOS ANGELES KINGS: 6 – 2 – 0

TROJAN OUTSCORING O-METER
Season:
TROJANS 343
OPPONENTS 151

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