Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

I’m not going to contribute to my future bout with arthritis by wasting a page of typing on how much John David Booty sucks and how disappointed I am with the Trojans. It can all be summed up in one word; pathetic.

Also, before I get started, I wanted to apologize for getting the Dime out so late in the week. I’m going to try to start getting it out sooner… but working full time now is so damn tiring that when I do ever get a minute to myself, I usually use it to sleep instead of crunch numbers. As such my picks haven’t been as good as they could be (I’m taking shortcuts…) but until I get paid to make them, I unfortunately have to prioritize work first.

Anyway, I broke my slump and went 10 – 4 against the spread last week, and it reminded me of something.

YOU SHOULD ALWAYS TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS.

For those of you that do try to pick winners, or play fantasy football, or whatever, you know exactly what I’m talking about. You crunch the numbers and have it figured out exactly what the play is. Mathematically and statistically, it looks perfect. Then the voice in the back of your head chimes in that “something doesn’t feel right”.

I’m not talking about self doubt. I’m not talking about what Chris Berman told you on TV. I’m talking about a legitimate gut feeling that something is wrong. Maybe it looks too easy? Maybe you just have a bad feeling about it?

Regardless, LISTEN TO THAT VOICE. Two good reasons;

1) Vegas oddsmakers have the exact same stats you do (and then some), and not only do they have a good idea of what is actually going to happen but they know what you THINK is going to happen too. They set the lines looking to exploit this. Your gut telling you something is wrong could be a pickup that you are falling into a trap.

2) How many times, weekly, do you say “I knew I should have bet/picked that one!” “I knew I shouldn’t have bet/picked that one!” (or for fantasy players… “I knew I should have started/benched him!”)? If you actually GO WITH THAT FEELING, you won’t face this dilemma.

This is much easier said then done, I know. You take the time to do all the research, study previous opponents, yardage, trends, etc. Only to throw all of that out on a whim? Its hard, and it won’t always pay off… but every time you make a decision, it isn’t a bad idea to step back and say “If this loses tomorrow, am I going to complain to everyone that I KNEW this was going to happen?”

Oh, did you? Then why’d you go the other way?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
Without the spread: 10 – 4 – 0 (.714)
^^Zen Picks^^: 2 – 0 – 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 5 – 0 – 0 (1.000)

Season
With the spread: 27 – 29 – 6 (.482)
Without the spread: 39 – 23 – 0 (.629)
^^Zen Picks^^: 5 – 1 – 1 (.833)
**Outright Upsets**: 9 – 7 – 0 (.563)

LAST WEEK’S RECAP OF DAVE’S BRILLIANCE AND FOOLISHNESS
(Usually Foolishness)

SUNDAY

Chicago 1 – 2 (-3.0) @ Detroit 2 – 1 (+3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago (LOSS)

Green Bay 3 – 0 (-2.0) @ Minnesota 1 – 2 (+2.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay (WIN)

New York Jets 1 – 2 (-3.5) @ Buffalo 0 – 3 (+3.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets (LOSS)

St. Louis 0 – 3 (+13.0) @ Dallas 3 – 0 (-13.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas (WIN)

Seattle 2 – 1 (-2.0) @ San Francisco 2 – 1 (+2.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle (WIN)

Tampa Bay 2 – 1 (+3.0) @ Carolina 2 – 1 (-3.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay (WIN)

Denver 2 – 1 (+10.0) @ Indianapolis 3 – 0 (-10.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis (WIN)

Kansas City 1 – 2 (+12.0) @ San Diego 1 – 2 (-12.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Kansas City (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego (LOSS)

Pittsburgh 3 – 0 (-6.5) @ Arizona 1 – 2 (+6.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh (LOSS)

Philadelphia 1 – 2 (-2.5) @ New York Giants 1 – 2 (+2.5)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants (WIN)

New England 3 – 0 (-8.0) @ Cincinnati 1 – 2 (+8.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati (LOSS)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England (WIN)

DAMN, I’M GOOD

Plenty to brag about on a 10 – 4 week. May not see one this good again for a while, so I have to gloat as much as possible!

Baltimore 2 – 1 (-4.5) @ Cleveland 1 – 2 (+4.5)
Well, sometimes when things aren’t going right, you’ve gotta throw in a curve ball or two. And that is what I’m doing here. While I think Baltimore has an excellent team, they have looked very average early this season, especially on offense. Cleveland plays Baltimore tough historically, and with the home crowd behind them, I’m feeling an upset here. Baltimore gets caught sleeping in a stunner here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

Houston 2 – 1 (-3.0) @ Atlanta 0 – 3 (+3.0)
Houston is definitely the better team here, and I was leaning towards them… but something about the Falcons being underdogs at home for two straight weeks just doesn’t sit right for me. I’m also not buying the spread being only 3 points because “people don’t believe in Houston yet”… I’ve heard nothing but good things about the Texans all over the media. All of the reasons that make Houston too easy of a pick are exactly why I’m going the other way.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Atlanta

Oakland 1 – 2 (+4.0) @ Miami 0 – 3 (-4.0)
Oakland has been very close in all 3 games they’ve played. They lost the first two they should have won, and then won last week when they should have lost. At the very least, they will keep it close; but Culpepper getting his revenge and the team being extra pumped to prove Joey Porter’s guarantee wrong leaves me picking the Raiders straight up for an absurd 4th straight week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Oakland

THE PICKS
* – Indicates Upset Pick
$ – Indicates Money Pick
^ – Indicates Zen Pick

I feel like I have way too many favorites… but maybe the NFL will calm down this week?

SUNDAY

Arizona 2 – 2 (-4.0) @ St. Louis 4 – 0 (+4.0)
Doesn’t it seem more than a bit odd to you that the team that just beat the Steelers is only a 4 point favorite against a winless, Steven-Jackson-less, Marc-Bulger-less Rams team? Or, perhaps a better question, how stunned will you all be when I’m right about this one? The Rams simplify the playbook this week and everyone steps up and earns their first W of the year.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*St. Louis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *St. Louis

Atlanta 1 – 3 (+8.0) @ Tennessee 2 – 1 (-8.0)
Joey Harrington has looked pretty good in his last two, but Carolina and Houston at home are a slightly different story than a well-rested Tennessee on the road. In the rare spot as favorites, the Titans will win this one comfortably with their stingy defense.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

Carolina 2 – 2 (+3.0) @ New Orleans 0 – 3 (-3.0)
The Saints were among the league’s worst in the season’s first 3 games. I predicted they’d falter, but this badly? After an extra week to work on the playbook and execution, I expect New Orlean’s lethargic offense to wake up this week. Perhaps more importantly, Sean Peyton should have some pretty good blitz packages put together to force Carr into making some bad decisions. I’m not concerned about if this game will be a “turning point” for the Saints or not; just if they manage to win for a change.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

Cleveland 2 – 2 (+16.5) @ New England 4 – 0 (-16.5)
This spread disgusts me, because in the NFL, any spread over +14.0 is not only a good bet value-wise, but it serves as a great motivational factor for the underdog. That said… New England so far… @NYJ 38 -14, SD 38 – 14, BUF 38 – 7, @CIN 34 – 14… am I really supposed to pick against them at home? I can’t, not until they show some kind of weakness! I mean cheaters or not, they are really good!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

Detroit 3 – 1 (+3.5) @ Washington 2 – 1 (-3.5)
Despite Detroit’s abysmal history in Washington, I just don’t see the Redskins being able to either CONTAIN this offense or KEEP UP with it. Without being able to do that, how can they win?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Detroit
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Detroit

Jacksonville 2 – 1 (-2.5) @ Kansas City 2 – 2 (+2.5)
Kansas City is a great home team and Jacksonville isn’t as good as their record would lead you to believe they are… that said, I don’t see the Chiefs having any energy left in the tank after the huge upset in San Diego, and this game is a prime opportunity for a let down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

Miami 0 – 4 (+5.5) @ Houston 2 – 2 (-5.5)
Miami has been the laughing stock of the league this year, and they just have too many leaders on this team to let that continue. Their most glaring weakness, the run defense, won’t be tested too hard against the Texans, and they’ll find a way to win this game, even if it may be ugly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Miami

New York Jets 1 – 3 (+3.5) @ New York Giants 2 – 2 (-3.5)
About as close to a lock as I could find this week. The Giants should have no trouble scoring, and if the Giants’ defensive line is half as good as it was against Philly, we should see a very similar point total for the Jets. Factor in that it is a Giants home game, and you are good to go.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants

Seattle 3 – 1 (+6.0) @ Pittsburgh 3 – 1 (-6.0)
I can’t stop going back and forth on this game, as I think Seattle is a solid team and I’m still not sure what to expect from Pittsburgh. Being back at home after taking their first loss of the season last week should be enough motivation to pick up a win here though.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay 3 – 1 (+10.0) @ Indianapolis 4 – 0 (-10.0)
As long as Tampa Bay doesn’t let the Colts get too comfortable too early, they should be able to keep it a good game right up to the end. I won’t be surprised at all if this ends up being a defensive struggle.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

Baltimore 2 – 2 (-3.5) @ San Francisco 2 – 2 (+3.5)
Baltimore has been very beatable this season, but they are still a dangerous team. I just don’t think SF will be able to move the ball this week, especially without Alex Smith. Baltimore at only -3.5 is a bargain.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

San Diego 1 – 3 @ Denver 2 – 2 (Pick’em)
Who knows? Despite the same roster, this clearly isn’t the same San Diego Chargers as the team that went 14 – 2 last year. But despite Denver being a tough environment to play in, my brain still can’t register a 1 – 4, dead last in the division San Diego Charger team. They have to find a way to win here; if for nothing else, simply my sanity.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego

Chicago 1 – 3 (+3.5) @ Green Bay 4 – 0 (-3.5)
I don’t know how long this Packers run will last, but considering they are the better team on offense, defense, and special teams, I’m certainly taking them this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay

MONDAY

Dallas 4 – 0 (-10.5) @ Buffalo 1 – 3 (+10.5)
Buffalo’s absolutely brutal schedule continues, and as much as I’d like to see them make this a game, I just can’t find anything that leads me to believe this game will be anywhere close.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
THE COLLEGE NICKEL

RECORD: 18 – 17 – 0 (.514)

5 picks from Saturday! View them here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M2Eokxaen0

1. Louisville (-14.0) over Utah (Loss)

2. Troy (-19.0) over Florida International (Loss… by 1 point of course)

3. Ohio State (-7.5) over Purdue (Win)

4. Cincinnati (+4.0) over Rutgers (Win, straight up too)

5. Hawaii (-40.0) over Utah State (Loss)

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