Dave’s Dime
“Because Two Cents Just Isn’t Enough”

THE INTRO

After my worst regular season ever, I guess it isn’t too shocking that I should start off the playoffs doing poorly, too. Lucky for me, Arizona managed to spare me the ultimate embarrassment (0-4)… for now, anyway.

This week’s spreads are much more lopsided, and the matchups are plenty interesting. And I will be in LAS VEGAS to enjoy them, bringing in my kid brother’s 21st birthday in style.

Speaking of which, I leave in less then five hours, and I haven’t started packing yet. Hmm. I should probably get this thing sent out, shouldn’t I?

THE RECORD

Last Week
With the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
OVER/UNDER: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Playoffs
With the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
Without the spread: 1 – 3 – 0 (.250)
OVER/UNDER: 2 – 2 – 0 (.500)

Regular Season (Final)
With the spread: 123 – 126 – 7 (.494)
Without the spread: 170 – 86 – 0 (.664)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 – 13 – 1 (.581)

THE PICKS

* – Indicates Upset Pick

SATURDAY

#4 Arizona Cardinals (+7.0) @ #1 New Orleans Saints (-7.0)
SHOOTOUT! SHOOTOUT! At least, that’s the most obvious way this game will go after what we saw from Arizona last week.

Lost in the fireworks though were two important points; one, so much for the stout Arizona defense that showed up in the playoffs last year. Two, I wasn’t thrilled with Arizona’s mental toughness; 31-10 at home, the game should have been completely over; to let Green Bay back into it was inexcusable, and doesn’t bode well heading into a game on the road against an excellent come-from-behind team in the New Orleans Saints. It may be another shootout, but I’m expecting there to be a few more shots coming out of the Saints’ guns, and they’ve waited too long for this to come out flat.

I could see this one going over 57, but I’m simply not going near a number like that in an NFL playoff game.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
OVER/UNDER 57: Under

#6 Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) @ #1 Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
It feels like Baltimore always plays the Colts tough, but in actuality, the Colts have won the last seven meetings between the two teams, and four of those seven wins came by double digits. The other three games were by six points or less though, including their last regular season game (a two-point Indy win) and their last playoff meeting (a six-point Indy win).

There should be little doubt in anyone’s head that Indy is a better team than New England this season. That said, I can’t write off Baltimore’s performance last week completely; they showed for the first time this season that they can win the big game, and I think that will give them the momentum to at least keep this one within a touchdown, even if Indy eventually prevails.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
OVER/UNDER 44: Under

SUNDAY

#3 Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ #2 Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Despite a meaningless drubbing of the New York Giants in Week 17, the Vikings enter this game without much momentum, having fizzled late in the season and leaving plenty of questionmarks about Brett Favre. Dallas, meanwhile, is red-hot and playing some excellent defense, and I can’t help but believe they can keep it up against the Vikings.

I’m expecting strong efforts from both defenses, so it will really come down to which offense can make the plays; and I’ll take the hot and confident Cowboys who are riding a four-game winning streak over the Vikings who have lost three of their last five.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Dallas
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Dallas
OVER/UNDER 45.5: Under

#5 New York Jets (+7.0) @ #2 San Diego Chargers (-7.0)
I really want the Jets to win this game; I hate the Chargers, and I love what the Jets are doing, playing great defense and running the football. Mark Sanchez did an amazing job running the offense last week, too.

But as I look closly at this game, I really don’t see the Jets coming out on top. I’m not sure Sanchez will be able to play as well as he did last week, but more importantly, I think this San Diego offense and passing game are just to versatile for the Jets to stop. Revis will shut down his man, but will it matter? They have too many weapons, including Antonio Gates, who will be extremely tough to stop.

The Jets will build on their win over the Bengals moving forward, but I don’t see them ending the Chargers’ 11-game winning streak; and in fact, I could see it getting ugly.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
OVER/UNDER 42.5: Over

Good Luck!
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